ISLAMABAD (April 20 2009): Pakistan and Iran are said to have agreed to resolve the disputes on gas pipeline project in accordance with the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL), sources in Petroleum Ministry told Business Recorder.
The two countries are expected to trim the Gas Sale Purchase Agreement (GSPA), possibly during the current week, to materialise the much-delayed multi billion dollars project.
On April 8, 2009, the Federal Cabinet gave approval for the project, subject to the condition that, for the present, Pakistan should not commit to purchasing more than 750 mmcfd gas, against the initial plan of one billion cubic feet, at offered crude oil parity of 80 percent.
"If the parties are unable to settle any dispute through mutual consultation then, depending upon nature of dispute, either party may refer it to either an expert or to arbitration, in accordance with clause 19 (Dispute Resolution). Arbitration will be governed in accordance with UNCITRAL Arbitration Rules which provide for appointment of three arbitrators," sources said.
They said that arbitrators would be appointed by Director, Kuala Lumpur Regional Centre for Arbitration, and their determination will be final and binding for both parties. The agreement will be for contracted supply of up to 750 mmcfd gas for 25 years, renewable for another five years. Delivery point for the gas is at the Iran-Pakistan border, near Gwadar, at an agreed pressure of not less than 798 psig (55 barg).
The GSPA provides for ramping up of supplies from 35 percent (350 mmcfd) in the first year to 65 percent (650 mmcfd) in the second year, followed by full capacity of 1bcfd starting third year.
Elaborating the GSPA, sources said that this is a supply contract, wherein the gas supplier is legally bound to supply the contracted volumes, or otherwise pay liquidated damages.
"In the case of supply shortfall, the seller has to pay following to the buyer: (i) 9 percent discount on the contract price for the corresponding shortfall volume; (ii) buyers shipment tariff, ie transportation charges from border to pipeline system; (iii) difference of price between the contract gas price and a basket of alternative fuels (HSFO and HSD in a ratio of 80:20)."
According to sources, GSPAs are confidential in nature, and not available in public domain information. Therefore, exact details are not available. However, as per media reports, the Iran-Turkey GSPA is that it is for 1 billion cubic feet daily (bcfd) over a 25-year supply period, starting 1996. The contract volume has recently been increased to 2.0 bcfd.
Turkey pays 80 percent crude oil parity price. This information has not been officially confirmed by either Iran or Turkey. However, unofficial sources have confirmed this price. Further, there is a clause in the Iran-Pakistan GSPA that the gas price will be the weighed average of all pipeline exports from Iran including Turkey.
The Iran-Turkey pipeline is 2,577 kilometres long natural gas pipeline, which runs from Tabriz in North-West Iran to Ankara in Turkey. The construction of the pipeline started in 1996, after signing a gas deal between Turkish and Iranian governments. The GSPA was signed on August 8, 1996 for a supply period of 25 years. The contract volume during plateau is 10 BCMA (lBcfd), which accounts for about 22 percent of Turkey's natural gas imports. The pipeline has a maximum capacity to pump 14 BCMA, commissioned on 26th July 2001.
The Turkish section, operated by Botas, cost $600 million. In Erzurum, the South Caucasus Pipeline is linked to the Iran-Turkey pipeline. In future, these two pipelines will be the main supply for the planned Nabucco Pipeline from ISGS engaged a UK based pricing consultant Energy Contract Company to advise on the gas pricing regimes in the global gas trading hubs.
The consultant has advised that in the pure gas trading hubs such as Henry Hub (USA) and NBP (UK), where the gas is traded as a commodity it is not linked with crude oil. However, based upon historic data, natural gas on the average is being sold at 70 percent of crude oil parity. The consultant has also advised that where the gas is linked with crude oil and oil products, the parity is comparatively higher, the sources maintained.
The consultant has advised that, based upon the price formulae in pipeline gas supplies to Southern Europe, at an oil price of $62/bbI ($10.88/mmbtu), and including an estimate of the transportation price, an estimate of the current price under two supply contracts to Southern Europe is as under:
-- Algerian GME delivered Spain $7.7/mmbtu 71 percent oil parity
-- IE Italian Benchmark @ border $8.1/ mmbtu 75percent oil parity
As regards, the Iran-Turkey or Iran-Armenia gas prices, the consultant has advised that the benchmark price offered to Pakistan is that at which it is selling gas to Turkey which is assessed at 85 percent oil parity, as also confirmed by Pakistan Embassy at Tehran.
The consultant has also advised that although there are certain global gas pricing parameters, the gas prices are frequently negotiated considering the peculiar markets dynamics.
As per press reports, all recent gas price negotiations have been concluded at much higher gas prices as compared to the previous in the major gas trading hubs. Iran has recently (in February 2009) finalised a deal to import gas from Turkmenistan. The price of gas being paid by Iran to Turkmenistan is $300-350/MCM, which translates to $8.5-10/mmbtu, as compared to $8.2/mmbtu offered to Pakistan. The price agreed ranges from 81 percent to 94 percent at a crude oil price of $60/bbI as against 78 percent to Pakistan.
In a recent agreement, in January 2009, Ukraine agreed to pay Russia on the average $260-300/MCM ($7.36-8.5/mmbtu during 2009 as against the $179/MCM ($5.1/mmbtu) in 2008. The agreed price comes to 70 percent-81 percent of the crude oil parity as against at 50 percent crude oil parity in 2008.
In addition, of the recent developments in the global gas market, the most critical development to note is that in future the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF)--of which Iran is a member along with Russia, Qatar and others--is expected to play a proactive role in controlling the world gas/LNG prices. Although not stated, the prime objective of the forum appears to establish the minimum floor for the gas prices while ensuring the indexation of the gas price as close as possible to the oil prices.
Recently, during December 2008, in the context of adoption of the charter of GECF, the Russian Prime Minister was quoted by the press saying as: "The era of cheap gas is over". Industry analysts interpret this equally applying to LNG.