EDITORIAL (November 20 2008): A press release issued by the Foreign Office asserts that the Friends of Pakistan meeting held in Abu Dhabi adopted a work plan that envisages greater co-operation in the fields of security, energy, development and institution building - areas where Pakistan needs support.
The outcome of the Friends of Pakistan meeting was the scheduling of additional meetings, the next one from 13 to 16 January 2009, with the participation of 'experts' in each of these areas, which would lead to building of strategic partnerships. However, the Press release was ominously silent on what Pakistan needs the most urgently: financial injections to enable the government to shore up its fast depleting foreign exchange reserves, stabilise the balance of payments position as well as strengthen the declining rupee value.
To many this silence comes as no surprise. The reasons being cited for this are varied. Some believe that the Friends of Pakistan want to keep Pakistan on a tight leash in an effort to ensure that our government continues its commitment to the war on terror with little flexibility to undertake policies that are not supported by the international community.
Others argue that Pakistan must first go on an International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme which would force the government to set its house in order through adopting conditionalities that would have implications for improving governance as well as macroeconomic stability. The adoption of these conditionalities would, in turn, increase the comfort level of bilaterals with respect to how we utilise their assistance, which may follow later.
However it is relevant to note that there is a gestation period, estimated at between six months to a year, before these conditionalities begin to impact positively on the economy and increase our credit rating. Such reasoning would, therefore, imply that the government must not expect additional financing from Friends of Pakistan any time soon.
The substance of the IMF conditions was revealed by Shaukat Tarin, Special Advisor to the Prime Minister on Finance, in a television interview. First, fiscal deficit would have to be reduced from 7.4 percent during 2007-08 to 4.4 percent as envisaged in the budget, to be eventually brought down to 3 percent; however the 2008-09 budget document was vague on the actual source of revenue, and hence meeting the 4.4 percent deficit is likely to be a challenge requiring a mini budget by the end of the current calendar year that would, according to Tarin, increase taxes on agriculture, stock market, real estate and others.
The second IMF condition is to expand the revenue base from 5 to 15 percent, as per Tarin. With a decline in output in recent months - both farm as well as industrial output - it maybe difficult for the government to hasten with imposition of a new tax or raise existing taxes on the productive sectors. Tarin expressed optimism and stated categorically that the government would upgrade the farm sector and make it a profit earning. Again this would take time and in the interim period prices may well soar with the imposition of a tax on agriculture.
However, the government is considering privatisation as a means of meeting some of its expenditure requirements. According to informed sources, the plan is to generate around 5 billion dollars from privatising state-owned companies. Given today's global financial crisis, the government must put this policy on hold as it is unlikely to receive the amount that it would be able to once the crisis has blown over.
Third, the government would have to limit its borrowing from the State Bank of Pakistan, a policy that would reduce the pressure on prices. Deficit financing is a highly inflationary policy and it is hoped that the government restricts its use to what is absolutely necessary. And finally Tarin also stated that the IMF has urged the government not to make oil payments through the State Bank, which would assist in saving foreign exchange reserves and the rupee value is likely to strengthen without any intervention from the State Bank.
There is a need, therefore, for the government to accept that it is unlikely to access any additional financing in the short term at least. IMF and other international financial institutions are going to operate within our economy and impose a set of conditionalities that are unlikely to be pain-free and, unfortunately, experience shows that the poorer one is the more would be the impact of IMF conditionalities. This is in spite of the assurance by the IMF that it would ensure social protection to the poorest of the poor.
What the government should do is to ensure that belt tightening is across the board and non-development expenditure cuts must be more pronounced relative to development expenditure. Unfortunately this has not been visible in recent weeks, with numerous foreign junkets, by bureaucrats and some politicians, as well as the cabinet expansion.