ISLAMABAD: Asian Development Bank (ADB) has assessed that the settlement of the past subsidies owed by the government of Pakistan will cost $1.1 billion.
Similarly, addressing the circular debt and debt overhang is likely to need $3 to $3.5 billion over 2008-2010.
ADB in its report on Accelerating Economic Transformation Programme said that specific policies are needed to deal with the root causes and consequences of high energy prices. Although the current political economy and global landscape pose complex policy challenges, the government has taken certain key actions under the programme. These include: ensuring up-to-date payments of the tariff differential subsidies to power distribution companies (DISCOs), allocating sufficient resources for energy subsidies in the budget to meet the forecast needs over FY2009, and determining the extent of circular debt and debt overhang in the electricity sector and ring fencing the debt owed by DISCOs. The settlement of the past subsidies owed by the Government will cost $1.1 billion.
Another achievement of the programme is to enhance awareness of the need to move from the poorly targeted and inefficient subsidies in the food and energy sectors to a more targeted safety net system.
To sustain high rate of growth, Pakistan needs to address immediate distortions in the economy, particularly in the agriculture and energy sector. The pricing and procurement system for wheat needs to be restructured, and subsidies should be better targeted to benefit the poor and vulnerable. The poorly targeted subsidies cost the government Rs 40 billion ($600 million) in FY2008, not including the additional resource requirements estimated at $1.6 billion at a minimum - to cushion the poor against the escalating prices. Pakistan also needs to fix its subsidy system in the electricity sector. In the absence of an automatic adjustment mechanism, the government has not been able to settle the payments owed to distribution companies, which has resulted in a vicious circular debt problem and debt overhang in the sector. This problem needs to be addressed urgently to resolve the present energy crisis facing Pakistan.
While energy prices have also gone up by about 30 percent in the first quarter, the rise in poverty incidence is estimated to be much smaller of about 1.5 percentage points. ADBs analysis also shows that, if every poor person were to be compensated to offset the loss in real expenditure, the government may incur Rs 18.5 billion (0.3 percent of GDP).
In addition, parliamentary approval was obtained to reduce electricity subsidies through:
(i) elimination of generalised sales tax subsidies for all domestic consumers and up to 500 units for commercial consumers; introduction of automatic monthly fuel price adjustments through a surcharge; and introduction of an additional surcharge to be levied on all consumers to reduce the gap between determined and notified tariffs. sajid chaudhry