Foreign investment in local bourses drops 8.3pc in 6 months
Friday, August 15, 2008
KARACHI: The Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPIs) on Pakistani bourses has notably declined by 8.3 per cent in the last six months to $4.4 billion. At the end of February 2008 the net inflows in the countrys stock markets stood at $4.8 billion.
The importance of taking last six months period (March to date) statistics is that none of these consecutive months could fetch inflows in net and cumulative outflow in the said period stands nearly at $400 million or 8.3 per cent.
Prior to this, February 2008 was the last month that had attracted $123.4 million to the countrys bourses and had inflated the size of overseas investment to $4.8 billion here.
According to analysts February was the month of parliamentary election in the country - a month of hopes for investors community.
The coalition government, however, failed to deliver what the investors were expecting from them on economic front. Lawlessness and political instability propelled the country into an economic chaos, thus, paving the way for foreign investors exit, they added.
Sajid Bhanji, VC-Capital Market at Arif Habib Securities, said that the killing of Benazir Bhutto, former prime minister, in last December created a leadership and political vacuum in the country.
The changing circumstances of lawlessness increased the sense of insecurity and political instability made the people socially depressed. Subsequently, economy took brunt of this entire situation, he added.
Accordingly, all time high twin trade deficits mounted pressure on local currency and the loss of investors confidence in government to set the falling economy back on rails was last nail in the coffin.
Since January 2008, the rupee has depreciated by over 17 per cent to Rs75.20 against one dollar to date. In the open currency market also briefly crossed Rs76 a dollar here on yesterday (Thursday), he mentioned.
Bhanji added that this imbalance in rupee-dollar parity in the region and moreover falling dollar in other major world currencies like Euro worked like two-sided sharp sword here in Pakistan.
The sub-prime mortgage crisis in USA last October and its impact on world economies and currency exchange rate turmoil at world convinced foreign investors not only in Pakistan but also in other countries including India to drain out their funds from developing countries, he added.
He recalled the early 90s era when country was facing the dollarisation phenomenon. He added in those time people were converting their liquidity into dollar or investing in countries like Dubai.
The same situation we are facing these days, as the hints of converting local currency into the dollar and investing abroad were echoing these days again, he said.
The emerging situation helps recall statement of Dr. Kaiser Bengali, economist, that the government would devalue currency to narrow down the widening twin trade deficits. His prediction came true, as rupee had depreciated by more than 17 per cent to date since January for whatever are the causes.
Majority of analysts have time and again said that an increase of 250 basis points in central banks discount rate to 13 per cent in the last two months and mounting pressure on rupee (besides political instability) were the two main causes of depleting foreign portfolio investment here in the country.
Under the review period, the local bourse - mainly the Karachi stocks market - remained extremely volatile for the same two reasons that convinced foreign investors to exit.
Hopes pinned on newly installed government in late March had helped KSE benchmark KSE 100-share Index to reach all time high at 15,676 points on April 18. But since then, Karachi bourse has dropped 5,774 points or approximately 37 per cent to date. During the same period, a decline of near Rs1,700 billion from overall market capitalisation was also recoded that fell to Rs3.091 trillion at current.
Trends in Foreign Portfolio Investments
Net Buy/(Sell)
Month Gross Buy ((Rs) Gross Sell (Rs) In Pak Rupee In US Dollar
Mar-2008 23,391,705,335 -30,273,477,090 -6,881,771,755 -110,996,319
Apr-2008 26,796,819,009 -27,900,759,493 -1,103,940,484 -17,407,181
May-2008 23,347,096,666 -26,636,393,163 -3,289,296,497 -51,730,240
Jun-2008 13,997,836,446 -21,747,876,865 -7,750,040,419 -115,682,642
Jul-2008 7,727,761,171 -13,718,731,465 -5,990,970,294 -85,082,863
Aug-2008 3,189,304,776 -4,303,329,881 -1,114,025,105 -15,439,920
Source: NCCPL website. Value in dollar, mentioned in last column of this table, is based on that respective moth exchange rate.
Foreign investment in local bourses drops 8.3pc in 6 months