Govt brings down external debt by $129m
Sunday, August 10, 2008
ISLAMABAD: Although Pakistans external debt stock has increased by $5.46 billion to $44.47 billion during July-June 2007-08 the government in its first three months (April-June) retired some principal amount and interest resulting in $129 million decline in debt stock for the first time in last 10 years.
The rupee value of external debt and liabilities went up by Rs607 billion in one year, which is the highest increase in a single year mainly because of massive depreciation of rupee against the US dollar.
The government also benefited by appreciation of US dollar versus major currencies. The valuation impact amounted to $1.042 billion, which means the external debt declined by this amount in dollar terms because of appreciation of the US dollar versus major currencies.
The government is finding it hard to get disbursement of agreed loans from the World Bank and Asian Development Bank because they require a nod from the IMF regarding macroeconomic stability.
According to State Bank of Pakistan during the last six years external debt increased significantly. As on June 30, 2003, it stood at $32.46 billion, June 2004 ($32.93 billion), June 2005 ($34.04 billion), June 2006 ($35.97 billion) June 2007 ($39 billion) and now at the end of June 2008, it jumped to $44.47 billion.
Adding foreign exchange liabilities with external debt, the situation becomes more grim as during FY2007-08, Pakistans external liabilities, external debt plus foreign exchange liabilities, jacked up to $46.28 billion at the end of June 2008 from $40.48 billion by end June 2007 up by $5.8 billion in a year.
The external debt and liabilities as percentage of GDP have risen to 29.2 per cent from 28.1 per cent last year which means the debt burden went up by 1.1 percentage points. Similarly, the external debt and liabilities as percentage of foreign exchange earnings escalated to 131 per cent from 126 per cent in last year. These two indicators were frequently referred to as important indicators of debt burden in the past five years by the Debt Office of the Ministry of Finance.
While in the same time, official liquid reserves with the central bank substantially declined to $8.577 billion by end June 2008 down $4.77 billion over last fiscal.
Of the total liabilities, the external debt has surged by $5.46 billion to $44.47 billion at the end of June 2007-08, against $40.62 billion recorded at the end of June 2007. Foreign exchange liabilities also increased to $1.82 billion as compared to $1.47 billion recorded at the end June 2007.
On the other hand, independent economists say that floating of euro and dollar bonds were a source of building up countrys reserves. They say that floating of bonds at one hand increasing government liabilities and on the other hand the countrys reserves.
According to the banks data during the last five years, the countrys public and publicly guaranteed debt has been on the rise.
On June 30, 2003, it was $ 29.23 billion, June 2004 ($29.87 billion), June 2005 ($31.08 billion), June 2006 ($32.89 billion), June 2007 ($35.35 billion) and at the end of June 2008 it increased to $40.24 billion.
In public and publicly guaranteed debt, the medium and long-term debt (more than one year) during the period under review augmented by $4.25 billion to $ 39.33 billion as it was $35.08 billion at the end of June 2007.
According to the break-up of the medium and long-term debt, the multilateral debt by end-June 2008 grew by $2.92 billion to $21.45 billion and bilateral debt up by $198 million to $1.13 billion compared to June 2007 when these stood at $18.53 billion and $931 million respectively.
While, during the period under review the volume of military debt declined by $42 million to $41 million while Paris club debt up by $1.23 billion to $13.93 billion over the previous year.
The State Banks data also depict a decline of about $70 million in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) debt. At the end of June 2008, it declined to $1.34 billion as compared to $1.41 billion recorded at the end of June 2007.
The economy has to absorb double hit in the shape of Pakistani rupees depreciation against the US dollar and the greenback (US $) losing value against hard currencies like Japanese yen (JPY), Euro, SDR and others which multiplied the burden.
Economic pundits believe that with each rupee appreciation in US dollar Pakistani external debt rise by Rs45 billion. In 2007-08 greenback appreciated by more than 12 rupees. Dollar depreciation against other major world currencies was also worsening the countrys debt position and just piling up the stock of external debt in dollar terms.
It is also interesting to note that since other currencies of the world appreciating against dollar due to its falling value in the world market, only Pakistani rupee is being depreciated and touching record low against the greenback.
The government was experiencing huge current account deficit (CAD) and each month it inched up by more than a billion dollar and there was a strong anticipation of rupee depreciation against major currencies, yet the government was unaware about its implications on debt stock or made no efforts to manage it. During July-June 2007-08, CAD without official transfer stood at all times high $14.44 billion (about 8 per cent of GDP).
It is also interesting to note that the government was also noticing the huge twin deficits (current and budget deficit) of the US economy and it was projected that the dollar would shed its value against hard currencies like Japanese yen (JPY), Euro, SDR and others.
While on the other hand, economic managers of the government had not assessed its impact on the local economy and especially on the external payments and debt or had no experience to manage the hit on the economy.
Govt brings down external debt by $129m