Cement sector owes record performance to exports
Saturday, August 02, 2008
KARACHI: The cement sector in Pakistan had a notable performance in fiscal year 2007-08 as prices surged from Rs270 per 50kg bag to a record Rs400.
A shortage of cement in India and the Middle East meant exports in particular were remarkably healthy throughout the year. The countrys cement companies have excess capacities, which were exported to the Middle East, Africa, Afghanistan and India at a premium price.
During the past six or seven years, cement companies in the country have been shifting from oil to coal or gas. Most cement companies now use coal as their basic fuel. The country has huge reserves of coal, but cement companies import it, as local coal has a high sulphur content.
At present, cement companies are buying coal at around US$180 per ton, up from $80 per ton last year. A few years ago, though, coal was quoted at $40 in the international market.
This rise in coal costs has been one of the biggest reasons behind the dampening of gross margins of cement companies during the previous fiscal year. Since the start of 2008, the rupee has depreciated around 13 per cent from Rs62 to Rs70 against the dollar. If it depreciates further, the cost of coal in term of rupees is likely to increase substantially.
In FY 2007-08, cement dispatches reached a record 30 million tons, depicting a growth of 25 per cent. This growth was driven mainly by a 142 per cent rise in exports and six per cent increase in local dispatches.
The dual impact of coal price rise and rupee depreciation may lead to further margin cuts in cement companies, but they continue to reap profits in exports. However, local companies must increase the share in exports of the total production to curb the impact of rising coal costs. In the cement industry, exports form only 24 per cent of total sales.
The biggest exporter in the industry is Lucky Cement, which exports 47 per cent of its produce. Lucky has fared better than other cement companies. The cement sectors profitability declined by 69 per cent during the first nine months of FY 2007-08, but Luckys profitability increased by 50 per cent
After witnessing exceptional earnings growth from 2003 to 2006, cement companies overall profits fell by 42 per cent in 2007. Although a massive volumetric sales growth of 32 per cent was observed, price war caused revenues and thus profits to decline. However, a two to three million tons shortage of cement in high-growth construction activity in the United Arab Emirates, coupled with India and Egypts ban on cement exports, allowed Pakistan to use the situation to its advantage.
Thanks to the expanding local demand and growing cement shortage in the region, cement sales depicted an increase of 24 per cent to stand at 24.5 million tons during the first 10 months of FY 2007-08. During the same period, export sales showed an increase of 142 per cent, while local dispatches saw a rise of eight per cent.
Cement sales in the third quarter of FY 2007-08 jumped up 10 per cent compared to the same time in the previous fiscal year.
Cement prices in the northern parts of the country saw a drop of Rs10-20 per bag in April, while average prices at ex-factory level reached Rs240-250 per bag.
Cement sales during March broke the previous monthly record of 2.56 million tons (November 2007) to reach 2.61 million tons by March 25.
This has been on the back of record-breaking exports of 726,000 tons (previous record 645,000 tons in February) and 1.9 million tons in local sales.
Construction activities throughout the world led to a surge in the demand of cement, resulting in prices reaching record levels. In the UAE, they jumped up by over 40 per cent in 2008, forcing the UAE government to remove the five per cent customs duty on the import of cement, something which helped Pakistan export more cement to the UAE. Cement prices in the UAE first increased from AED16 per bag (Rs273 per bag, $87 per ton) to AED22 per bag (Rs376 per bag, $119 per ton), and then touched more than AED25 per bag (Rs427 per bag, $136 per ton).
After this, local cement companies slowly shifted their produce to exports. From July to February FY 2007-08, record cement exports were seen, rising by 140 per cent and amounting to around 4.3 million tons. During that time, sales demonstrated a healthy demand of 23 per cent with dispatches of 18.7 million tons.
In December 2007, total dispatches declined owing to the winter season and fewer working days.
Cement exports registered a growth of 34 per cent in first four months of FY 2007-08 to 9.48 million tonnes, as compared to the same period of FY 2006-07.
In first quarter of FY 2007-08 cement prices in Pakistan had seen a decline due to less demand and more supply, creating an over supply situation and causing ex-factory cement prices to hit a low of Rs170-180 per bag (US$55-60 per ton).
Some Pakistani cement companies had also received orders from Russia, where price of cement reached over US$280 per ton (Rs860 per bag). However, logistical problems made it impractical to export cement to Russia.
Cement sector owes record performance to exports