ADB to provide $500 million for boosting economic transformation
FAISALABAD (July 21 2008): The Asian Development Bank (ADB) will provide $500 million for 'Accelerating Economic Transformation Program (AETP) (Subprogram-1)', which will provide significant benefits in general, and targeted benefits for the poor in particular. First, it will help meet the immediate and massive fiscal needs of the Pakistan government.
According to a project report, prepared by Ramesh Subramaniam, Director, CWGF, the Asian Development Bank is considering to provide $280 million from OCR, and $220 million from Asian Development Fund for 'Accelerating Economic Transformation Program (Subprogram-1)'.
At a minimum, ADB report said, the agriculture and energy subsidies need to be met at a cost of upward of $3 billion, firstly. Secondly, the government needs to move away from the inefficient and untargeted subsidies to a targeted safety net program for the poor.
Beginning with about 2 million households, the program will help target up to about 5 million households, or roughly about one-fourth of the poor who are likely to be directly affected by the spiralling food inflation. Thirdly, the program will open the way for structural transformation. Fourthly, the program will help cut the transaction costs for businesses (reduction in red tape in tax payments) and improve investment climate.
Fifthly, the program will raise public confidence in the banking system arising from development of a financial sector safety net, including a depositor protection scheme, and stronger financial intermediaries that are better able to mobilise and allocate resources and risks, and promote financial sector stability.
Sixthly, the program framework will enable ADB to sustained policy dialogue on structural reform in sectors where ADB has been actively involved through investments. While Pakistan has achieved a real GDP growth rate of 6-7 percent in recent years, ADB sources said that this growth has generated large fiscal, trade, and investment deficits, and has occurred without any major structural changes. To sustain this rate of growth, Pakistani needs to transform in three directions.
First, it has to address the short-term distortions in the economy, particularly in the agriculture and energy sectors. The pricing and procurement system for wheat needs to be restructured, and subsidies better targeted to benefit the poor and vulnerable. The poorly targeted subsidies could cost the government upward of Rs 45 billion ($650 million) this year, not including the additional resource requirements--estimated upward of $2 billion at a minimum--to cushion the poor against the escalating prices.
Pakistan also needs to fix its subsidy system in the electricity sector. In the absence of an automatic adjustment mechanism, the government has not been able to settle the payments owed to distribution companies, which has resulted in a vicious circular debt problem and debt overhang in the sector. This problem needs to be addressed urgently to resolve the present energy crisis facing Pakistan. The immediate resource requirements are upwards of $2.5 billion.
Second, over the medium to long-term, the production and trade structure of the economy needs to be transformed to compete in the global economy. Specifically, Pakistan needs a deeper industrial base, a productive and efficient agricultural sector, greater value creation in the service sector, and far greater export sophistication.
TO ACHIEVE THIS, THE GOVERNMENT NEEDS TO:
(i) address policy and institutional distortions in the short term,
(ii) identify a few sectors where it can compete effectively, and
(iii) attract private sector participation.
Third, Pakistan needs to strengthen its domestic financial intermediation to facilitate structural transformation. At a macro level, the government has relied heavily on the central bank for its fiscal requirements--a practice that has to be reversed. Sector regulation needs to be strengthened to promote consumer confidence, manage risks effectively, and deepen financial intermediation.
ADB has been involved in competitiveness reforms in Pakistan since mid-1990s. It helped implement Trade, Export Promotion and Industry Program over 1999-2004, and a Small and Medium Enterprise Program to support reforms at the smaller end of the industry segment. In parallel, ADB has been engaged in financial sector reforms. ADB has worked closely with other development partners on these reform programs.
Through AETP, the Government is committed to adopting a structural transformation strategy focusing on industrialisation and increasing its competitiveness in industry and other areas, and related reforms to promote a stronger financial sector. To help leverage these reforms and bridge deficits, Pakistan has requested budgetary support through the AETP.
The expected outputs of the program are: (i) removal of price, fiscal and structural distortions in the agriculture and energy sectors in the short term, with the objective of resolving the present food and energy crisis and averting future crises; (ii) accelerated value creation in industry, agriculture and services through structural reforms, including greater private sector participation; and (iii) sound financial intermediation.
Under this project, ADB sources said, the extensive consultations were conducted with the government [including Ministry of Finance (MOF); Ministry of Industries; Ministry of Commerce; Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock; Ministry of Labour, Manpower and Overseas Pakistanis; State Bank of Pakistan (SBP); Planning Commission; Board of Investment; Privatisation Commission; Engineering Development Board)] private sector (including ABN/AMRO, KPMG, McKinsey) and other development partners (including IMG and World Bank).
ADB will monitor program implementation through regular reviews and progress reports throughout implementation. Based on these reviews, modifications and improvements will be considered. To facilitate such reviews, the government will assist ADB by providing relevant data and information in such details as ADB may reasonably request.
Business Recorder [Pakistan's First Financial Daily]