Squeeze in spending to contain fiscal deficit
A MAJOR cut in the development spending and $3 billion capital inflows including quick loan disbursements by international financial institutions is expected to help contain the surging fiscal deficit.
Sources said that a further Rs40-50 billion cut is envisaged in the Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP), which earlier was slashed by Rs70 billion by the PML (Q) government.
Talking to Dawn Federal Finance Minister Ishaq Dar said that $1.5 billion was expected from the World Bank (WB), Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Islamic Development Bank (IDB). Another $1 billion will come as foreign direct investment (FDI) and rest will be secured from international financial markets.
This funding will help us maintain our fiscal deficit at 6.5 per cent of the GDP against the original target of four per cent set for 2007-08.
Mr Dar said the World Bank had frozen its assistance during the PML(Q) government for presenting unreliable economic data and various other budgetary figures In the joint World Bank/IMF annual meetings held last month, he was told to stick to four per cent fiscal deficit target. But I informed them it was not possible and that they should not expect fudging of figures from us as was done by the Shukat Aziz government.
Eventually, Mr Dar said he convinced particularly the World Bank officials on the issue. I am glad to tell you that the World Bank has now decided to resume its usual annual assistance to Pakistan.
He, however, said that new resources would have to be mobilized for the budget 2008-09 through rationalisation of existing taxes and widening the narrow tax base. He regretted that the tax-to-GDP ratio was currently less than 10 per cent of the GDP. Untaxed sectors would have to be brought under the tax net to improve countrys financial health.
Taxing agriculture income and the services sector were important issues which would be decided with mutual understanding of the coalition partners, he said while responding to a question.
The finance minister also hinted at the possibility of withdrawing various subsidies and exemptions in the next budget. He said only targeted subsidy would be offered to the poor.
We are identifying five million poor families i.e. around 30 million people to be offered certain relief in the next budget, Mr Dar said.
Only the deserving people will get the targeted subsidy particularly on food items. This could also include food stamps. He said adding some credible method would be adopted to identify vulnerable groups to be offered some specific relief in the budget.
Mr Dar said he would not rely on Zakat Committees, and would collect data about the poor from the credible sources all political parties trust.
Attracting investment was another important area which would get due importance in the next budget. The government would look into extending necessary incentives to attract increased investment particularly foreign investment
Chief economist of the ABN Amro Bank Saqib Sherani, when approached, said the conventional wisdom demanded that the current fiscal crisis should be tackled by taking timely decisions. The new government needed to first rationalise its expenditures and take sufficient revenue raising measures in the next budge..
He was of the view that economic stability was equally important like political stability and, therefore, it must get full attention of the new coalition government.
To a question, he said IFIs timely support could help solve some of the pressing financial problems of the government during the current financial year. But for 2008-09, the government should introduce new taxes to improve its revenue collection.
He said capital gain tax on stock exchanges and equities must be levied in the next budget and that the issue must not go unnoticed by the coalition government if it was serious at all in solving the financial problems. Then tax on real estate transactions, should be introduced besides bringing services sector into the formal tax net, he said.
Mr Sherani also called for announcing tax on agriculture income in the budget. He did not believe that all the segments of society deserved subsidies including on oil consumption. Only the targeted subsidies should be given to the poor.
A senior economist in the Policy Planning Cell of the ministry of labour and manpower, Dr Zafar Moeen Nasir, was of the view that the government should revamp its taxation system to plug leakages and levy tax on farm incomes..
Squeeze in spending to contain fiscal deficit -DAWN - Business; May 05, 2008