Beijing keen on pipeline project
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
By Quddsia Akhlaque
ISLAMABAD: With President Pervez Musharraf's emphatic and open invitation for China to become a partner in the proposed $7.5 billion Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline project, initial indications from the Chinese diplomatic circles are that if the new political government in Islamabad pursues it further, Beijing may review its earlier feasibility study that did not fully endorse it.
"It now depends on the new political leadership in Pakistan. If Chinese leadership gets a strong signal that the new Pakistani prime minister is as interested then Beijing could launch fresh efforts to further explore the viability of the project which could subsequently lead to a joint survey of the area," sources said, adding the first step could be talks between the two relevant ministries where Pakistan side could also share data.
Noting that Pakistan's offer to China to join the project was a "very good suggestion and an encouraging symbol", Islamabad-based Chinese Strategic Analyst Zhou Rong told The News: "China may be interested in conducting a joint feasibility study of the proposed project by technical experts from both sides."
He said Beijing's decision would ultimately depend on technical and financial viability of the multi-billion dollar project. The Pakistan-China Joint Press Statement issued at the end of President Musharraf's six-day official visit to China on Tuesday noted that China "expressed its readiness" to assist Pakistan for the development of the energy sector.
However, with Beijing's current preoccupation and focus on the Olympic games being hosted by China in August, no movement on the pipeline project is possible till the mega event is over, sources maintained.
A feasibility report prepared by the Chinese experts around three years back in 2005 had pointed to 'geological obstacles' in the pipeline that would run from Iran to Pakistan and then on to China through the Karakoram Highway (KKH) via Gilgit in Northern Areas if China joins the project.
According to a Chinese source, experts had cited several technological challenges posed by the rugged terrain of the area through which the pipeline would have to pass. Hence, their conclusion was that from technical standpoint it would be very difficult, making it into a high cost project both in terms of money and time.
While China may be interested in the project it is clear that the key question of whether it will participate or not will be determined purely on technical grounds, a Chinese analyst said. "It is not just an issue of intentions, the political leaderships on both sides may have the best of intentions to back the IPI gas pipeline project but it cannot take-off without the green light from technical experts," the analyst cautioned as he pointed out: "This is not Karachi or Gwadar."
Apparently neither Iran nor India have formally discussed with Beijing the possibility of China joining the IPI project, nor China has directly conveyed its interest in this regard to any of them, sources close to Chinese government maintain.
However, President Pervez Musharraf during his recent meetings with the top Chinese leadership in Beijing did discuss prospects of China participating in the project as he also indicated in his response to questions by students of Beijing's Tsinghua University on Monday.
He declared Pakistan was very much in favour of a pipeline between the Gulf and China through Pakistan and told a student: "I have been speaking with your leadership, the president and the prime minister, about this."
Specifically referring to the IPI project, he suggested that it could be transformed into IPC pipeline ó Iran-Pakistan-China pipeline ó also. However, the Chinese who measure everything very carefully have not so far gone public with their response or position on the offer.
While acknowledging the challenges of building a pipeline that would have to cross towering and rugged mountain passes up to 15,000 feet (4,500 meters) high and admitting that technical experts had thought it might not be possible at such heights, President Musharraf still tried to make a case for it, saying: "But experts say (an) oil and gas pipeline could be pumped upward up to the border, but the larger distance in China would be down-flowing. So technically it's very feasible.'
Some observers believe that the president's proposal could put India under pressure to move fast on the project. Also a hint that if New Delhi continues to drag its feet on the proposed project China may emerge as a potential partner in the 2,600-kilometer gas pipeline originally aimed at supplying natural gas from Iran to Pakistan and then onwards to India.
While both Iran and Pakistan have been pushing for early conclusion of the project New Delhi seems to be employing delaying tactics because it is in the process of firming up a civilian nuclear deal with the US, which is opposed to Indian participation in the project.
China is seen by Pakistan as a viable partner in the IPI project having both the resources and the expertise in addition to the obvious advantages associated with its current status of the world's second-largest economy.
There is a view in Pakistani official quarters that China's inclusion in the project would give it more security and stability. Officials are also quick to point out that KKH is being made into an all-weather road.
Asia Times had reported just ahead of President's current China visit: "China, always on the lookout for new energy sources, has conveyed to Pakistan it would be willing to import 1.05 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas per day if India opts out of the project, according to reports quoting officials in Islamabad." It added: "Pakistan plans to import 2.2 bcf of gas a day from Iran through the pipeline."
Islamabad has consistently maintained that it would welcome China's inclusion in the proposed project. Last month when foreign office spokesperson Mohammad Sadiq was specifically asked about the prospects of China joining the IPI project his response was: "With or without India, we will welcome it. Pakistan is committed to the pipeline because of its desire to achieve energy security."
The Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson had indicated China's keenness to join the project during a visit to New Delhi earlier in February. He said: "Other countries are eager for implementation of the (IPI) project. China is also applying pressure and wants to join the project. We don't have a lot of time. It is time to expedite the decision-making."
Iran, which is said to have the world's second-largest gas reserves after Russia, has reportedly completed almost 20 per cent of the work on the pipeline. But Pakistan has not started work on a 1,000-km stretch of the pipeline to connect Iran with India.
The Indian petroleum minister and secretary will be in Islamabad next week to discuss in further detail the IPI project and more specifically to sort out the issue of transit and transportation fee that India would also have to pay to Pakistan. The question of China joining the project is also likely to figure in the bilateral discussions at the next meeting.
Meanwhile, reports from New Delhi suggest that since India is concerned about issues related to safety, commercial viability and security of the IPI pipeline, it has been advocating involvement of independent monitors and the Russian firm, Gazprom, as an investor in the project.
Beijing keen on pipeline project