Runaway deficits threaten economy
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan economys runaway twin deficits, if unchecked, could cause irreparable damage to the macroeconomic stability of the country and are likely to pose a serious threat to the smooth functioning of financial markets, valuation of rupee, monetary policy and economic growth in particular.
The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) in its monetary policy statement for July-December 2007 has covertly blamed fiscal extravaganza for monetary indiscipline in the economy during 2006-07.
During fiscal year 2006-07, fuelled by a huge $13.53 billion trade gap, the countrys current account deficit (CAD) widened to a staggering $7.016 billion (4.9 percent of GDP) from $4.99 billion or 4.3 per cent of GDP in FY 2005-06.
Likewise, the widening revenue-expenditure gap due to expansionary fiscal policy also stood at about Rs366.13 billion ($6 billion) against Rs325.18 billion recorded in FY 2005-06.
This was the reason that the governments borrowing from the banking system ie scheduled banks and the central bank, was on the rise for budgetary support. The SBP, however, is committed to putting a check on monetisation of the fiscal deficit.
Pakistans current account and budget deficits are reflecting a greater degree of deficit tolerance on the part of the government. The government has added Rs260 billion to the domestic debt stock and $1.6 billion to the external debt stock by end-March 2007, which is amazing for a government claiming to be breaking the begging bowl.
The twin deficits collectively put a question mark over the tall claims of fiscal prudence and external sector comforts. The governments economic planners keep on saying that Pakistan is enjoying an economic boom and the current account was manageable because at the moment greater chunks of it are being financed through non-debt creating inflows like remittances and foreign investment. However, a hefty increase of $1.6 billion to the external debt stock in nine months is self-explanatory of prudent debt management.
One dismaying aspect is that the government could have easily controlled this over-spending, but none bothered about it. For instance, issuance of Eurobond and GDR at high interest rates in the range of 7 to 10 per cent has only added to the low-yielding (0.5-1.5 per cent) reserves.
To the government, all inflows like remittances, FDI, portfolio investment, foreign economic assistance and foreign exchange reserves are very encouraging. But the million-dollar question is for how long can the current account deficit of this magnitude be financed through these inflows? And how long can Pakistan continue to spend more than its earnings for the sake of higher growth when the sustainability of these inflows is questionable?
The inflow of foreign investment should be taken with caution because most of the inflows are in sectors like financial business, telecoms and food and beverages where returns are high and have implications for remittance of profits and dividends which have already witnessed a tremendous rise in 2006-07. It is likely to have serious implications for the balance of payments.
On the other hand, it is very pleasing for Pakistan to receive large foreign direct investment (FDI), but the painful aspect of this growth is rising outflows of profits/dividends in foreign exchange.
During FY 2006-07, such outflows on account of remittance of profits and dividends to foreign investor countries amounted to $804.2 million against $504.4 million in FY 2005-06.
At present, these outflows are overshadowed by huge quantum of inflows, but in the long run the outflows could exacerbate the balance of payments.
Can the government be able to sustain inflows in the shape of privatisation proceeds about which the government is overly confident, and how long they would keep on privatising state-run entities?
There would come a point when all these inflows would dry up; then what would be the alternative source to finance the current account deficit.
It is important to note that in FY 2006-07, the communication sectors foreign investors remitted $152.5 million, power sector $136.2 million, financial businesses $116.1 million, chemicals $53.2 million, pharmaceuticals and OTC products $51.2 million, petroleum refining $48.7 million, oil and gas explorations $44.8 million, food $38.8 million and tobacco and cigarettes investors remitted back to their countries $33.4 million.
Well-placed sources in the Finance Ministry told The News that though, it was largely driven by a burgeoning trade deficit (which during FY2006-07 stood at $13.53 billion), yet, governments lavish expenditure on foreign trips and huge import of luxury cars have also been major factors augmenting the current account deficit to worrisome level.
Sources said that during the period under review, the national exchequer spent nearly $1.6 billion on import of luxury vehicles, more than $831.7 million on cellular phone sets, $1.32 billion on telecom apparatus and about $1.35 billion were paid through exchange companies to foreign countries. Besides, more than quarter of a billion dollars was spent on foreign tours by the President, Prime Minister and cabinet members.
The most depressing thing was that foreign trips remained almost fruitless as no improvement was seen or mentioned about enhancement of exports.
Pakistan during FY 2006-07 missed the export target of $18.6 billion by a wide margin of $1.6 billion by end June 2007.
According to economic experts external disequilibria in the shape of twin deficits may have a significant impact on the value of the rupee, a matter attracting keen attention around the country.
Besides, it would translate into a large increase in Pakistans net foreign debt position. A large and growing public debt could also eventually put upward pressure on interest rates and crowd out private investment.
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