Pakistan Economic Growth rate Watch Thread

[Halimi]

Would it be fair to say the economy has generally done well over the past year, especially considering all the uncertainty?

 

[farhan_9909]

Most recent,World bank economic forecast for Pakistan


SOUTH ASIA

Growth in South Asia rose to an estimated 5.5 percent in 2014 from a 10-year low of 4.9 percent in 2013. The upturn was driven by India, the region’s largest economy, which emerged from two years of modest growth. Regional growth is projected to rise to 6.8 percent by 2017, as reforms ease supply constraints in India, political tensions subside in Pakistan, remittances remain robust in Bangladesh and Nepal, and demand for the region’s exports firms. Past adjustments have reduced vulnerability to financial market volatility. Risks are mainly domestic and of a political nature. Sustaining the pace of reform and maintaining political stability are key to maintaining the recent growth momentum.

Projected Growth rate for Pakistan

Calendar year = 5%
Financial year = 5.4%

To Read the Complete Report

South Asia

More Points about Pakistan from the Report


Growth in Pakistan,the region’s second largest economy, accelerated to 5.4 percent in FY2013-14 from 4.4 percent the previous year, reflecting a lull in political turmoil and increased macroeconomic stability under an IMF support program. However, a spike in political unrest in the second half of 2014 has taken a toll on confidence and activity.

With inflation falling to an 11-year low in Pakistan, the central bank lowered its benchmark rate in November.

 

[farhan_9909]

IMF also projects 5% Growth rate for Pakistan now

IMF DataMapper

 

[farhan_9909]

ISLAMABAD – Federal Minister for Finance and Economic Affairs Senator Ishaq Dar on Monday expressed the hope that Pakistan would achieve its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth target of 5.1 per cent for the year 2014-15 as all the major economic indicators were on positive trajectory.

Pakistan to achieve GDP growth target of 5.1% this year: Dar

 

[ziaulislam]

IMF also projects 5% Growth rate for Pakistan now

IMF DataMapper

but it also shows that Pakistan will be doing the worst inside of whole south Asia, worst than Nepal and Maldives!

 

[Donatello]

but it also shows that Pakistan will be doing the worst inside of whole south Asia, worst than Nepal and Maldives!

Nepal and Maldives have much smaller economies than Pakistan.

 

[farhan_9909]

but it also shows that Pakistan will be doing the worst inside of whole south Asia, worst than Nepal and Maldives!

They are not our concern as they are not under the extremism we are in now.anything more than 5% is satisfactory for me though i do want a +6% growth rate

 

[ziaulislam]

Nepal and Maldives have much smaller economies than Pakistan.

Thats my point if pakistan is doing bad then them in terms of GDP growth than it tells us the whole story of our performance.
nepal and maldives are one of the poorest and resource limited countries yet they are having a btter GDP growth than pakistan. forget about bangladesh, srilanka and india.

the reason is obvious, power crisis has worsen with no foresight of improvement, govt subsides in power sector and co operation has eaten away any development funds. i was hoping the PML N will atleast do some improvement in power recovery but instead it has worsen. there also no signs of taking away expensive production from small industry based captive plants or improving DESCOs.
cut it short, performance wise they have been worse than PPPP. Though i am confident they will win again unless someone dies in PPPP. Pakistani peoples (especially the educated class) have hope that cant be squashed by any lengths of inefficiencies

 

[I FLY HIGH]

But you see FY 12-13 Pakistan growth was mere 3.5 %, while last year it grew to 4.4%, while this year it is expected to be over 5 percent , it is a steady growth , while i believe that Pakistan is taking good steps against terrorism , Chinese investment will also reach and big companies are in mood to invest now as energy issues are foreseen to be resolved with LNG imports and new power plants , all these factors suggest that Pakistan growth is going to shoot upwards in the coming time . Moreover the investors have seen that In Paksitan Political protests cannot topple the system as the political system in extending its roots deeper than ever before .

 

[BetterPakistan]

At least Pakistan needs 7% growth rate to provide jobs to the 2 million youth entering into job market every year. Predictions are that Pakistan GDP growth for 2014 will be 5.1% after this fiscal year ends.

 

[ziaulislam]

They are not our concern as they are not under the extremism we are in now.anything more than 5% is satisfactory for me though i do want a +6% growth rate

do you think that power sector thats eating up 2+growth as quoted by WB and asian bank is due to terrorism?????
its shocking not funny when its coming from a guy like you!

instead of solving power crisis through rapid initiation of import of LNG in first 1.8 years simultaneously improving or privatizing DESCOs and privitizing or improving distribution companies what PML N is done is the reverse.

1. losses and non recoveries are at all time high
2. DESCOs inefficiency are at all time high
3. private low power low efficiency Captive pants are getting gas soley due to corruptions vs high efficiency plants
4. AND to add misery in previous three years govt has not initiated a single hydro project other than fully foreign funded tarbela extension product that was financially closed in PPPP era(which is also way behind schedule), meaning we will face a hydro crisis in next 5-6 years.
5. oil companies have been gathering levy on refined oil from public that money disappeared a few years back and now we are exporting raw oil and importing expensive refined oil, and we see no initiation in that field
6. tax system has seen no improvement at all other than direct taxation no improvement has seen. growth in absolute quantity is due to inflation+gdp growth+direct taxation. TAX TO GDP RATIO HAS been study even FALLEN.
7. privatization of STEEL mills and PIA has been postponed and has been causing billions of lost. total losses off govt co operation has increased than what it was in PPPP era

i dont believe in sentiments, if you look at statistics PML N performance in power sector has been way worse and in complete contradictions of what they promised

the plus point was allowing private companies to invest in coal thats all even that has been slow due to inefficiency in whole mechanism

the main problem of our power system is poor management and management has gotten way worse than what it was in PPPP era.

i will be glade if you show me a single good point of past three years.

i see PML N govt as lucky they have saved face due to low oil prices, EU plus staus(yet total exports have fallen!!!) and billions of AID from saudis , and expensive bonds in internatinal market as well as IMF program

 

[Donatello]

Thats my point if pakistan is doing bad then them in terms of GDP growth than it tells us the whole story of our performance.
nepal and maldives are one of the poorest and resource limited countries yet they are having a btter GDP growth than pakistan. forget about bangladesh, srilanka and india.

the reason is obvious, power crisis has worsen with no foresight of improvement, govt subsides in power sector and co operation has eaten away any development funds. i was hoping the PML N will atleast do some improvement in power recovery but instead it has worsen. there also no signs of taking away expensive production from small industry based captive plants or improving DESCOs.
cut it short, performance wise they have been worse than PPPP. Though i am confident they will win again unless someone dies in PPPP. Pakistani peoples (especially the educated class) have hope that cant be squashed by any lengths of inefficiencies

You're missing the point here. Maldives and Nepal are very small economies, so an investment will have a bigger impact over there than in Pakistan. Maldives is heavily dependent on tourism and same with Nepal. Look at Afghanistan's numbers from a few years ago, 14% growth....that is because Afghanistan economy is so small that even a 10 billion dollar aid that came in registered a big growth rate. We have a growth that is mostly consumer oriented and local. FDI is lacking. With consistent FDI, Pakistan can easily push 7% and beyond.

 

[farhan_9909]

do you think that power sector thats eating up 2+growth as quoted by WB and asian bank is due to terrorism?????
its shocking not funny when its coming from a guy like you!

instead of solving power crisis through rapid initiation of import of LNG in first 2.8 years simultaneously improving or privatizing DESCOs and privitizing or improving distribution companies what PML N is done is the reverse.

1. losses and non recoveries are at all time high
2. DESCOs inefficiency are at all time high
3. private low power low efficiency Captive pants are getting gas soley due to corruptions vs high efficiency plants
4. AND to add misery in previous three years govt has not initiated a single hydro project other than fully foreign funded tarbela extension product that was financially closed in PPPP era(which is also way behind schedule), meaning we will face a hydro crisis in next 5-6 years.
5. oil companies have been gathering levy on refined oil from public that money disappeared a few years back and now we are exporting raw oil and importing expensive refined oil, and we see no initiation in that field
6. tax system has seen no improvement at all other than direct taxation no improvement has seen. growth in absolute quantity is due to inflation+gdp growth+direct taxation. TAX TO GDP RATIO HAS been study even FALLEN.
7. privatization of STEEL mills and PIA has been postponed and has been causing billions of lost. total losses off govt co operation has increased than what it was in PPPP era

i dont believe in sentiments, if you look at statistics PML N performance in power sector has been way worse and in complete contradictions of what they promised

the plus point was allowing private companies to invest in coal thats all even that has been slow due to inefficiency in whole mechanism

the main problem of our power system is poor management and management has gotten way worse than what it was in PPPP era.

i will be glade if you show me a single good point of past three years.

i see PML N govt as lucky they have saved face due to low oil prices, EU plus staus(yet total exports have fallen!!!) and billions of AID from saudis , and expensive bonds in internatinal market as well as IMF program

I will respond to you in other thread

NOTE: GUYS THIS THREAD IS NOT FOR DISCUSSION,As THIS IS ONLY TO POST NEWS RELATED TO PAKISTAN GROWTH RATE

 

[I FLY HIGH]

First of a

do you think that power sector thats eating up 2+growth as quoted by WB and asian bank is due to terrorism?????
its shocking not funny when its coming from a guy like you!

instead of solving power crisis through rapid initiation of import of LNG in first 2.8 years simultaneously improving or privatizing DESCOs and privitizing or improving distribution companies what PML N is done is the reverse.

1. losses and non recoveries are at all time high
2. DESCOs inefficiency are at all time high
3. private low power low efficiency Captive pants are getting gas soley due to corruptions vs high efficiency plants
4. AND to add misery in previous three years govt has not initiated a single hydro project other than fully foreign funded tarbela extension product that was financially closed in PPPP era(which is also way behind schedule), meaning we will face a hydro crisis in next 5-6 years.
5. oil companies have been gathering levy on refined oil from public that money disappeared a few years back and now we are exporting raw oil and importing expensive refined oil, and we see no initiation in that field
6. tax system has seen no improvement at all other than direct taxation no improvement has seen. growth in absolute quantity is due to inflation+gdp growth+direct taxation. TAX TO GDP RATIO HAS been study even FALLEN.
7. privatization of STEEL mills and PIA has been postponed and has been causing billions of lost. total losses off govt co operation has increased than what it was in PPPP era

i dont believe in sentiments, if you look at statistics PML N performance in power sector has been way worse and in complete contradictions of what they promised

the plus point was allowing private companies to invest in coal thats all even that has been slow due to inefficiency in whole mechanism

the main problem of our power system is poor management and management has gotten way worse than what it was in PPPP era.

i will be glade if you show me a single good point of past three years.

i see PML N govt as lucky they have saved face due to low oil prices, EU plus staus(yet total exports have fallen!!!) and billions of AID from saudis , and expensive bonds in internatinal market as well as IMF program

First of all , i appreciate that we are criticizing the govt , but someway or the other we must be realistic as well, Pakistan has many complex problems as you stated 1- state owned enterprises like PIA , Railways , steel mills etc .2- Power shortages 3- Discos line losses and recoveries 4- Gas shortages 5- low FDI 6- Inflation 7 Balance of payment s8- Unemployment . These are all problem which are chronic for years and has been eating us up since long . Govt took over in june 13 and now we are in fab 15. It is 20 months since they took over and by expecting that all the problems which you mentioned are resolved with a delete button is absolutely wrong and unrealistic expectation . But that does not means that govt has not done anything , PIA and discos are in process of privatization and govt is actively working to privatise them . Fesco privatization would be the first to privatized which will lead us the way for other Disco s as well . Now come to power generation ,Lng terminal for 600 mmcfd will be complete in march 15 and cost of producing electricity will come down as Diesel generation will be stopped . With another plant 600 mmcfd , govt will produce 3600 mwatts which will fulfil the current requirement and the idle capacity would also be utilized for generation . Pakistan steel is picking up its production now as it is working on 45 % capacity compared to 1% capacity before this govt , will be raised up to 77% during current year . So on the whole things are moving to right direction and these things take time but if govt remains commited and on track these issues could be resolved .

 

[ziaulislam]

First of a
First of all , i appreciate that we are criticizing the govt , but someway or the other we must be realistic as well, Pakistan has many complex problems as you stated 1- state owned enterprises like PIA , Railways , steel mills etc .2- Power shortages 3- Discos line losses and recoveries 4- Gas shortages 5- low FDI 6- Inflation 7 Balance of payment s8- Unemployment . These are all problem which are chronic for years and has been eating us up since long . Govt took over in june 13 and now we are in fab 15. It is 20 months since they took over and by expecting that all the problems which you mentioned are resolved with a delete button is absolutely wrong and unrealistic expectation . But that does not means that govt has not done anything , PIA and discos are in process of privatization and govt is actively working to privatise them . Fesco privatization would be the first to privatized which will lead us the way for other Disco s as well . Now come to power generation ,Lng terminal for 600 mmcfd will be complete in march 15 and cost of producing electricity will come down as Diesel generation will be stopped . With another plant 600 mmcfd , govt will produce 3600 mwatts which will fulfil the current requirement and the idle capacity would also be utilized for generation . Pakistan steel is picking up its production now as it is working on 45 % capacity compared to 1% capacity before this govt , will be raised up to 77% during current year . So on the whole things are moving to right direction and these things take time but if govt remains commited and on track these issues could be resolved .

steel mills got to 45% production after how many billion rupees bail out.
Who is building the LNG terminal..engro
FESCO is doing fine, i dont understand why to privatize the best performing companies first. rather they should implement the ASIAN bank 1.3 billion dollars mart meters project.

i cannot see anything worth in your post but laziness on part of govt. 5 years are not enough to improve things , i fully agree but isnt enough to START doing the right things what worries me is things are getting worse not better. all of the problems you quoted (except privatization and to some extent partially FDI) comes out to one thing, better management in power sector

I will respond to you in other thread

NOTE: GUYS THIS THREAD IS NOT FOR DISCUSSION,As THIS IS ONLY TO POST NEWS RELATED TO PAKISTAN GROWTH RATE

Ok. what i am saying is why a govt is being praised when its performance is nothing but ordinary. i will not discuss anything here