Pakistan Could Have Become an Asian Tiger By Now

[neehar]

What part of this looks ambiguous to you that you in addition to some of your compatriots feel the need to revert back to a 'Poverty Projection' from '04 that one can't even find using the search function whilst this is what their 'DataBank' shows : Poverty & Equity Data | South Asia | The World Bank



I do believe the data is from 2010 & it appears to be 36 not 32 !

The point was the the 'Projections' are incorrect nor can I find any mention of them in any of the Country Profiles or South Asia Profiles in their Databank or can I find the same Charts when I use the search button which makes me wonder whether they actually are WB figures or not are they really external projections as their web-address appears to suggest !

not 36% the data reads it as 32.6%.i'm not projecting anything.the ame wb link is saying that india is decreasing the poverty rate at 1.5% per annum so it would be about 26% as of today.thats 1.25 dollars a day.if u take the poverty line of our planning commission then it is 22%

 

[Armstrong]

not 36% the data reads it as 32.6%.i'm not projecting anything.the ame wb link is saying that india is decreasing the poverty rate at 1.5% per annum so it would be about 26% as of today.thats 1.25 dollars a day.if u take the poverty line of our planning commission then it is 22%

Unfortunately that same data is a 'projection' & perhaps an external one at that because neither the figures in the DATABANK nor the World Bank Figures being quoted in Columns 11 & 12 of Table 5 of the UNDP Human Development Report of 2013 are in agreement with them !

Furthermore either my Mathematics is so messed up that I can't tell that with a decrease of 1.3% p.a in Poverty by Pakistan wouldn't increase but instead reduce it as opposed to what those 'projections' are claiming !

 

[neehar]

Unfortunately that same data is a 'projection' & perhaps an external one at that because neither the figures in the DATABANK nor the World Bank Figures being quoted in Columns 11 & 12 of Table 5 of the UNDP Human Development Report of 2013 are in agreement with them !

Furthermore either my Mathematics is so messed up that I can't tell that with a decrease of 1.3% p.a in Poverty by Pakistan wouldn't increase but instead reduce it as opposed to what those 'projections' are claiming !

world bank clearly stated that it conducts surveys here
Poverty | Data.so i dont think its an estimated one.
the difference might be in their data collection and measuring methods.taking the mean of both the datas india's latest poverty rate is about 28%.
regarding pakistan.its the average rate of reduction per annum. so some years the reduction might be greater and some years it might be negative.but the net result is the poverty reduction rate of 1.2% per annum
this shows the same
Poverty & Equity Data | Pakistan | The World Bank
after 2000poverty increased and then it decreased and stayed almost stagnant.

 

[Armstrong]

world bank clearly stated that it conducts surveys here
Poverty | Data.so i dont think its an estimated one.
the difference might be in their data collection and measuring methods.taking the mean of both the datas india's latest poverty rate is about 28%

Yes & that is exactly the page that I've kept mentioning not that lonesome one without any head or tail to it that some of your compatriots are intent on quoting just because it conveniently shows that Pakistan's Poverty Levels actually increased when every Report that I've read including the same World Bank Database on their Country Profile & the South Asia Profile is telling something diagrammatically else !

 

[INDIC]

I dunno even the UNDP's figures or the figures they've quoted from World Bank appear inclined to support that !



Better check what ?

The fact that the projection was nowhere in line with the figures quoted there ?

As per the last count its 22.3 % in 2006 with an annual decrease that appears to be around 1.3% - One has to be daft to take those two figures in account & still say that somehow decreases of 1.3% p.a over a 5 year period would give a count of 32.1% in 2013 !

If there was an annual decrease but there was annual increase in Pakistan.

 

[Jade]

Yes I can see but clearly it is incorrect if their main-site has no record of it - Try searching 'Poverty in South Asia' & none of this comes up which means its either an older version that isn't there anymore or it has been superseded by newer data as is evidenced by their 'Data' pages on South Asia & the Poverty Comparative that I gave !

Can you explain how data is 'superseded' when the data is panel data? As far as I know in panel data, data is added not 'superseded'.

world bank clearly stated that it conducts surveys here
Poverty | Data.so i dont think its an estimated one.
the difference might be in their data collection and measuring methods.taking the mean of both the datas india's latest poverty rate is about 28%.
regarding pakistan.its the average rate of reduction per annum. so some years the reduction might be greater and some years it might be negative.but the net result is the poverty reduction rate of 1.2% per annum
this shows the same
Poverty & Equity Data | Pakistan | The World Bank
after 2000poverty increased and then it decreased and stayed almost stagnant.

The problem with Pakistan is that data stops at 2006.

 

[Jade]

Yes & that is exactly the page that I've kept mentioning not that lonesome one without any head or tail to it that some of your compatriots are intent on quoting just because it conveniently shows that Pakistan's Poverty Levels actually increased when every Report that I've read including the same World Bank Database on their Country Profile & the South Asia Profile is telling something diagrammatically else !

Because that is the only graph that compares poverty situation across countries in South Asia across time.

 

[Armstrong]

Because that is the only graph that compares poverty situation across countries in South Asia across time.

I feel like we're going in circles - What part of the following page Poverty & Equity Data | South Asia | The World Bank where 4 charts are given as a comparative of South Asia seems to lack the ability to compare poverty across South Asian countries through time that one not only feels the need to ignore DATA provided by the World Bank DATABANK but also ignore the same 'figures' as they are quoted in the DATABANK being quoted again in Columns 11 & 12 of Table 5 of the UNDP Human Development Report of 2013 & instead compels us to place our utmost trust in 'Poverty Projections' from 2004 linked to the Word Bank website that not only are devoid of any text to them barring the illustrative text but also carry the word 'External' in its web-address, don't come up in the search function provided on that same page & are in direct contradiction to both the World Bank DATABANK & the UNDP Human Development Report of 2013 !

Can you explain how data is 'superseded' when the data is panel data? As far as I know in panel data, data is added not 'superseded'.

Because those Illustrations are Poverty Projections not Data - That DATA exists in the DATA BANK !

Either the people at the UNDP were daft that they choose to ignore a web-link with no head or tail to it from the World Bank Website from 2004 & stuck to the DATA provided by the World Bank in their DATABANK or we are !

If there was an annual decrease but there was annual increase in Pakistan.

Did you even bother to open the links I posted ?

The World Bank DATABANK clearly states that there is a decrease in inflation p.a across South Asia including Pakistan !

If that isn't enough than the rising GDP Per Capita, the HDI Index, the Inequality Adjust HDI, the GDP as a whole, the GNI per capita etc. all on the rise should give you an idea in which direction the inflation should move !

 

[Jade]

I feel like we're going in circles - What part of the following page Poverty & Equity Data | South Asia | The World Bank where 4 charts are given as a comparative of South Asia seems to lack the ability to compare poverty across South Asian countries through time that one not only feels the need to ignore DATA provided by the World Bank DATABANK but also ignore the same 'figures' as they are quoted in the DATABANK being quoted again in Columns 11 & 12 of Table 5 of the UNDP Human Development Report of 2013 & instead compels us to place our utmost trust in 'Poverty Projections' from 2004 linked to the Word Bank website that not only are devoid of any text to them barring the illustrative text but also carry the word 'External' in its web-address, don't come up in the search function provided on that same page & are in direct contradiction to both the World Bank DATABANK & the UNDP Human Development Report of 2013 !



Because those Illustrations are Poverty Projections not Data - That DATA exists in the DATA BANK !

Either the people at the UNDP were daft that they choose to ignore a web-link with no head or tail to it from the World Bank Website from 2004 & stuck to the DATA provided by the World Bank in their DATABANK or we are !

First, none of the graphs tells you whether poverty declined or increased over time. Second, the data used to interpreter poverty in Pakistan is from between 1996 to 2006, whereas for other countries it is between 2001 to 2011. So, a comparison around 2004 would be more appropriative. You cannot compare PPP of Pakistan in 2006 to PPP of other countries in 2011, given that Pakistan currency has become less valuable now than in 2006.

Let me illustrate by numbers:

Assume that Poverty is define at USD 1.25

Now in 2006, 1 USD was around 60 PKR. So a person has to earn more than 75 PKR to not be to poor

Now in 2013, 1 USD is around 110 PKR. So a person now has to earn more than 138 PKR to not to be poor.

Unless a Pakistani citizens’ personal income has grown proportion to declining PKR, you cannot compare them directly.

The graph I posted compares all countries across similar time line.

As regarding Databank, new data is added every year to the old data but old data is not changed.

 

[Armstrong]

First, none of the graphs tells you whether poverty declined or increased over time. Second, the data used to interpreter poverty in Pakistan is from between 1996 to 2006, whereas for other countries it is between 2001 to 2011. So, a comparison around 2004 would be more appropriative. You cannot compare PPP of Pakistan in 2006 to PPP of other countries in 2011, given that Pakistan currency has become less valuable now than in 2006.

Let me illustrate by numbers:

Assume that Poverty is define at USD 1.25

Now in 2006, 1 USD was around 60 PKR. So a person has to earn more than 75 PKR to not be to poor

Now in 2013, 1 USD is around 110 PKR. So a person now has to earn more than 138 PKR to not to be poor.

Unless a Pakistani citizens’ personal income has grown proportion to declining PKR, you cannot compare them directly.

The graph I posted compares all countries across similar time line.

As regarding Databank, new data is added every year to the old data but old data is not changed.

First off for other countries it is from 2010 not 2011 !

Secondly comparing 'DATA' from 2004 would've made sense if it was DATA not Projections as the link clearly states !

Thirdly the Poverty is measured in Dollar Terms not Rupee Terms which means the depreciation of the Rupee has no bearing whatsoever on the Poverty for $1.25 remains $1.25 & anyone earning less than that would naturally be earning more Rupees with Inflation ! The Inflationary effects on the US Dollar is what matter & they were accounted for by changing the Poverty Rate from $1 a day to $1.25 a day !

Fourthly the Rupee has depreciated between 2005 & 2006 & yet there was a decrease in Poverty from 23.9% to 22.3% & before that the Rupee had considerably depreciated between 2002 & 2005 & yet there was a decrease in Poverty from 34.5% to 23.9% !

Fifthly, the GNI per Capita was $778 per person in 2006 & it has increased to $1260 per person in 2012 - That measure is by & large effected by the inflationary effects on the US Dollar not the depreciation of the Rupee for a higher PKR/USD exchange rate in favor of the US Dollar by default implies that more Rupees would have to be earned to earn that $1260 figure per person !

In GDP per Capita terms the figure is even higher !

And Lastly I feel compelled to reiterate once more either the people at the World Bank & UNDP were daft that they choose to use those figures & not a Poverty Projection from 2004 that doesn't even have an head or tail to it or we are !

(All of the above DATA has been taken from their DATABANK)

 

[Jade]

First off for other countries it is from 2010 not 2011 !

That is precisely my point. Those graphs are not meant to be compared. Comparison happens across similar time lines.

Secondly comparing 'DATA' from 2004 would've made sense if it was DATA not Projections as the link clearly states !

Again have a look at the graph. The objective of the graph was to measure poverty reduction across South Asian countries.

Thirdly the Poverty is measured in Dollar Terms not Rupee Terms which means the depreciation of the Rupee has no bearing whatsoever on the Poverty for $1.25 remains $1.25 & anyone earning less than that would naturally be earning more Rupees with Inflation ! The Inflationary effects on the US Dollar is what matter & they were accounted for by changing the Poverty Rate from $1 a day to $1.25 a day !

You seems confused...depreciation happens with respect to another currency. It is simple, with depreciation PKR become cheaper with respect to Dollar, hence to earn the same dollar you need to earn more PKR

Fourthly the Rupee has depreciated between 2005 & 2006 & yet there was a decrease in Poverty from 23.9% to 22.3% & before that the Rupee had considerably depreciated between 2002 & 2005 & yet there was a decrease in Poverty from 34.5% to 23.9% !

I am not sure about the figures for Pakistan, but forget the effects of depreciation, poverty reduction can even happen if average per capita declines. Take a situation, where poor becomes poorer but middle class become richer. Per capita is average and not absolute.

Fifthly, the GNI per Capita was $778 per person in 2006 & it has increased to $1260 per person in 2012 - That measure is by & large effected by the inflationary effects on the US Dollar not the depreciation of the Rupee for a higher PKR/USD exchange rate in favor of the US Dollar by default implies that more Rupees would have to be earned to earn that $1260 figure per person !

Yes, inflation goes into GNI, but so does PKR/USD exchange rate

And Lastly I feel compelled to reiterate once more either the people at the World Bank & UNDP were daft that they choose to use those figures & not a Poverty Projection from 2004 that doesn't even have an head or tail to it or we are !

I would not question world bank calculations. World Bank recognizes how important those figures are.

Now let us forget about the World Bank and the statistics

In the last decade Pakistan on an average grew by just 3% per year. There was country wide anarchy in last decade with almost 50,000 death registered due to terrorist violence. Unemployment reached new heights. There was no power supply for Industry. Industrial output has fallen so are Exports. Forex reserves have fallen so have investments. Now tell me how can poverty decrease. To decrease poverty you require productive avenues for employment of both resources and people, which were squarely absent in Pakistan. I see no reason not to think that poverty in fact has increased in Pakistan.

 

[Armstrong]

That is precisely my point. Those graphs are not meant to be compared. Comparison happens across similar time lines.

Precisely that is why I didn't quote the World Bank figures to begin with - I quoted the UNDP ones which are not only based on measures that address Poverty more intensely but are much up to date !

Again have a look at the graph. The objective of the graph was to measure poverty reduction across South Asian countries.

The objective of the Graph was to project Poverty Reduction across South Asia judging by the growth rates of what they'd be in 2013 !

Those criterion have already been soundly negated by the World Bank figures in their DATABANK in 2006 !

You seems confused...depreciation happens with respect to another currency. It is simple, with depreciation PKR become cheaper with respect to Dollar, hence to earn the same dollar you need to earn more PKR

You seem to have missed the whole point !

A depreciation of the PKR means that more PKR are needed to buy the same amount of Dollars !

Were we calculating Poverty as earnings of less than PKR 100 a day it would've made sense but because we're calculating in Dollar Terms it doesn't effect it because naturally if the Currency has depreciated from (say!) PKR 50 to a Dollar in 2005 to PKR 60 to a Dollar in 2006 & the Poverty Rates have gone down from 23.9% to 22.3% more people are earning more PKRs to reach the $1.25 Poverty Line or $1 as I presume it was back then !

I am not sure about the figures for Pakistan, but forget the effects of depreciation, poverty reduction can even happen if average per capita declines. Take a situation, where poor becomes poorer but middle class become richer. Per capita is average and not absolute.

Exactly & that is precisely why the UNDP created the Multidimensional Poverty Index & only quoted World Bank Figures in comparison to it !

According to it our figures are beyond shameful !

Yes, inflation goes into GNI, but so does PKR/USD exchange rate

Where have I said it doesn't ? I simply tried to state that a GNI which is Dollar based only means that if the Rupee has depreciated then more Rupees would be needed to register the same Dollar equivalents as the value pre depreciation & much more if an increment is to be recorded - Naturally if the depreciation is there & the GNI is still increasing then we've gone for the latter most of the aforementioned situations !

I would not question world bank calculations. World Bank recognizes how important those figures are.

Nor am I questioning World Bank Figures - I'm questioning 2-3 Graphs that happen to be linked to the World Bank Page that are neither found in their DATABANK nor come up in their Search Function nor have been utilized by another credible organization - the UNDP - when it sought to give a Poverty Comparative !

In the last decade Pakistan on an average grew by just 3% per year. There was country wide anarchy in last decade with almost 50,000 death registered due to terrorist violence. Unemployment reached new heights. There was no power supply for Industry. Industrial output has fallen so are Exports. Forex reserves have fallen. Now tell me how can poverty decrease. To decrease poverty you require productive avenues for employment of both resources and people, which was squarely absent. I see no reason not to think that poverty in fact has increased in Pakistan.

And yet neither the HDI which takes into account Life Expectancy, Education & Wealth agrees with that assessment !

Nor have Pakistan's Exports fallen !

Nor have we registered a decrease in our GDP or GNI growth or their per capita growth !

Lastly when it comes to the Unemployment Rate in 2009 it was 5.5% in Pakistan as per the ILO whereas in 2013 it was 6.0% - a 0.5% increment can't possibly off-set a reduction in inflation of 1.2-1.3% a year in '06 ! (http://www.ilo.org/ilostat/faces/home/statisticaldata/data_by_country/country-details?country=PAK&_afrLoop=1855735428337884#@?_afrLoop=1855735428337884&country=PAK&_adf.ctrl-state=fuerbdb68_171 - Should you wish to you check the 2013 figures from the Short Term Indicators section where there is an Excel file to the name of Unemployment Rate)

So in a way whereas our GDP Growth has been stunted & our Unemployment Rate increased by 0.5% owing to a larger population there is nothing to suggest that there has been an increase in Poverty Levels in Pakistan especially when the previous Data by World Bank suggests something else & the latest data by the UNDP suggests something else as well !