Pakistan Could Have Become an Asian Tiger By Now

[Armstrong]

Actually UN or World bank depend on national surveys/census to get their figures as UN or World bank neither have the sources or capability to conduct their surveys/census physically.

However, each organization have their own econometric models, robustness tests and error estimates - statistical and non statistical - to arrive at their figures, hence you find discrepancies in the figures they arrive at

Indeed they must have - To minimize the risks associated with arriving at an incorrect representation of the population at large they utilize a number of surveys taken from a number of different angles as evidenced by the 'Main Sources' they've quoted !

In addition the last PPP findings that I posted in my original post are World Bank Figures !

Big reforms are usually carried out quickly after a new administration has come in, because that is the only time when they will have enough political capital to do so.

Like Deng Xiaoping, he came in and started reforming right away.

Or Xi Jinping and the recent reforms we had. Or even Obama and his Obamacare.

If an Administration comes in, and drags their feet on reform, you can guess they won't be reforming later either, when their political capital has run down so low that they couldn't even push through reforms even if they wanted to.

China & Pakistan are world's apart in this - In the words of a well known Pakistani Politician 'Politics, in Pakistan, is like the slave-girl (in an harem) of the rich' - They don't give a foOk about us !

Your Leaders cared enough to change things around; for ours - We're just the human equivalent of an ATM Machine !

 

[SrNair]

It is Maharastra and Uttar Pradesh which have registered top growth rates instead of Bihar and Madhya Pradesh (this data is from 2004 to 2012)
List of Indian states by GDP - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Maharastra is already ahead with large cities like Mumbai.In UP population growth is a problem
approximately equal to brazil and still increasing .So their growth is not much experinced in life of people.MP also experiencing this problem

@INDIC ,@MohitV ,@Shak ,@GURU DUTT ,@sreekumar ,@Capt.Popeye ,see haq is befooling people

that is not a surprise.Pakistan eyes is full of cataract when they see poverty levels in India.

 

[Jade]

Indeed they must have - To minimize the risks associated with arriving at an incorrect representation of the population at large they utilize a number of surveys taken from a number of different angles as evidenced by the 'Main Sources' they've quoted !

In addition the last PPP findings that I posted in my original post are World Bank Figures !

The main economic indicators always come from national bodies such as Census departments, Bureau of Economic analysis or Bureau of Labour statistics. Most international agencies adjust these figures for the bias- both voluntary and non voluntary - taking into account country's past records and other indirect economic indicators such as power production, trade figures or energy consumption.

As regarding PPP or even nominal, the bad part is: compared to Pakistan, India has more income disparately. India has rich upper class and increasingly upward mobile middle class, but there is also a section of Indian population where the fruit of economic liberalization has not reached as intended.

Now the good part: compared to Pakistan, India is bringing people out of poverty at much higher rate than Pakistan is doing. I was surprised when I saw that all countries in South Asia except Pakistan have decreased their respective poverty percentage while Pakistan has gone the opposite way. Not a good sign for Pakistan.

 

[Armstrong]

Now the good part: compared to Pakistan, India is bringing people out of poverty at much higher rate than Pakistan is doing. I was surprised when I saw that all countries in South Asia except Pakistan have decreased their respective poverty percentage while Pakistan has gone the opposite way. Not a good sign for Pakistan.

Where is that coming from ?

Even according to the World Bank Figures Pakistan's Poverty Percentage (as per the last count they conducted) is on the decline & because there is, I assume, a positive correlation between growth or increase in the Human Development Index & Reduction in Poverty - I don't see why Pakistan would have a higher Poverty Percentage than before despite having the highest HDI Growth rate between 2000-2012 of 1.74% a year compared with India (1.50%), Bangladesh (1.46%) & Sri Lanka (0.76%) for the same figure for the same period. (UNDP Human Development Report 2013 Pages 149-150)

 

[Jade]

Where is that coming from ?

Even according to the World Bank Figures Pakistan's Poverty Percentage (as per the last count they conducted) is on the decline & because there is, I assume, a positive correlation between growth or increase in the Human Development Index & Reduction in Poverty - I don't see why Pakistan would have a higher Poverty Percentage than before despite having the highest HDI Growth rate between 2000-2012 of 1.74% a year compared with India (1.50%), Bangladesh (1.46%) & Sri Lanka (0.76%) for the same figure for the same period. (UNDP Human Development Report 2013 Pages 149-150)

I presume poverty reduction is more correlated with economic growth than with HDI index. If the inflation is more than growth rate, the country would become less productive, hence will have increasing poverty.

As regarding Pakistan, I was implying that from one of the previous poster who posted poverty rates as bar graph across South Asian countries

 

[Armstrong]

I presume poverty reduction is more correlated with economic growth than with HDI index. If the inflation is more than growth rate, the country would become less productive, hence will have increasing poverty.

Not really the Human Development Index is a measure of one's standard of living, education & health therefore if you're improving in any of those you're already going against the depressing effects of inflation to make value-added additions in that sub-category & if you're increasing in all of three of on a net-basis you're doing that on an overall basis !

Otherwise if Poverty was tied with Economic Growth in such a manner - India with a higher per capita income & a higher growth rate wouldn't also have a higher poverty percentage than Pakistan !

As regarding Pakistan, I was implying that from one of the previous poster who posted poverty rates as bar graph across South Asian countries

That was from way too long ago !

The figures I posted are from their website & appear to be the latest available to them !

Poverty & Equity Data | South Asia | The World Bank

 

[Jade]

Not really the Human Development Index is a measure of one's standard of living, education & health therefore if you're improving in any of those you're already going against the depressing effects of inflation to make value-added additions in that sub-category & if you're increasing in all of three of on a net-basis you're doing that on an overall basis !

Otherwise if Poverty was tied with Economic Growth in such a manner - India with a higher per capita income & a higher growth rate wouldn't also have a higher poverty percentage than Pakistan !



That was from way too long ago !

The figures I posted are from their website & appear to be the latest available to them !

Poverty & Equity Data | South Asia | The World Bank

HDI is not a hard figure. By hard figure I mean certain things that goes into calculating HDI are too subjective. Some of the hard figures are Employment statistics, Economic growth, Industrial output etc.. and these are proved to have high correlation with poverty reduction.

Again, It is customary to correlate poverty reduction with economic growth as was done below by world bank

As regarding your link. It says the same thing what I was implying. Nepal is the only country that is doing worst than Pakistan in South Asia in poverty reduction; Moreover, the data for all the countries used to imply poverty reduction is from 2010 while for Pakistan it from 2006. I am sure you would agree that Pakistan's economy is in worst shape now than it was in 2006.

 

[Armstrong]

HDI is not a hard figure. By hard figure I mean certain things that goes into calculating HDI are too subjective. Some of the hard figures are Employment statistics, Economic growth, Industrial output etc.. and these are proved to have high correlation with poverty reduction.

Again, It is customary to correlate poverty reduction with economic growth as was done below by world bank

As regarding your link. It says the same thing what I was implying. Nepal is the only country that is doing worst than Pakistan in South Asia in poverty reduction; Moreover, the data for all the countries used to imply poverty reduction is from 2010 while for Pakistan it from 2006. I am sure you would agree that Pakistan's economy is in worst shape now than it was in 2006.

A poverty reduction percentage of around 1.3% every year vs 'going the opposite way' aren't exactly the same nor is India's 1.7-1.6% materially better than it !

Furthermore Pakistan's economy has grown from 2006, as has the per capita income, as has HDI & the former two are at PPP which means they are inflation adjusted !

Lastly the HDI is not a soft-figure (if that is what the alternative would be called) for it measures life expectancy, educational attainment & GNI per Capita - All of which carry no more or no less subjectivity than any other measure that is used to measure human development - In fact the last measure ensures that economic growth remains embedded in it !

Indices & Data | Human Development Index | Human Development Reports (HDR) | United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)

 

[Jade]

A poverty reduction percentage of around 1.3% every year vs 'going the opposite way' aren't exactly the same nor is India's 1.7-1.6% materially better than it !

Furthermore Pakistan's economy has grown from 2006, as has the per capita income, as has HDI & the former two are at PPP which means they are inflation adjusted !

I am just implying from world bank data.

Moreover, I am not even sure how accurate the statistics from Pakistan are when the census was conducted back in 1998, while most county's have their census data from 2010 or 2011.

 

[Armstrong]

I am just implying from world bank data.

Moreover, I am not even sure how accurate the statistics from Pakistan are when the census was conducted back in 1998, while most county's have their census data from 2010 or 2011.

The World Bank Data doesn't imply that !

Thats precisely why there are alternative ways to go about appraising the situation as the UNDP does routinely !

 

[Jade]

The World Bank Data doesn't imply that !

Thats precisely why there are alternative ways to go about appraising the situation as the UNDP does routinely !

Yes it does, the closest comparative poverty situation across both time and country that I can get hold of from World bank is below

This above graph show that poverty has reduced across all south asian countries except Pakistan where in fact it is going up.

Even taking into consideration that this was done back in 2004, Pakistan should have done extremely well in the past decade to overturn the situation, but that is not the case. In fact Pakistan is one of the worst performing economies in this region in the last decade

 

[Armstrong]

Yes it does, the closest comparative poverty situation across both time and country that I can get hold of from World bank is below

This above graph show that poverty has reduced across all south asian countries except Pakistan where in fact it is going up.

Even taking into consideration that this was done back in 2004, Pakistan should have done extremely well in the past decade to overturn the situation, but that is not the case. In fact Pakistan is one of the worst performing economies in this region in the last decade

Apparently the above Graph is incorrect because the following is the 'Data Section' of the World Bank Website churns out : Poverty & Equity Data | South Asia | The World Bank

Nor is Pakistan's Latest head-count anywhere close to 32.1 nor is India's for that matter anywhere close to 26 !

 

[Jade]

Apparently the above Graph is incorrect because the following is the 'Data Section' of the World Bank Website churns out : Poverty & Equity Data | South Asia | The World Bank

Nor is Pakistan's Latest head-count anywhere close to 32.1 nor is India's for that matter anywhere close to 26 !

I would not go as far as to say that data is incorrect as it is published on World Bank website.

 

[xyxmt]

can we settle on anything less than a tiger, lets say a wolf or hyena
we keep trying to aim for tiger status for more than 30 years that i can remember
lets become Asian Hyena

 

[RiazHaq]

Most South Asians live in rural areas and depend on agriculture. A key reason why Pakistan has lower levels of poverty than India and Bangladesh is because its agriculture productivity is the highest in the region...as much as 2X higher than India's.

Haq's Musings: Pakistan Leads South Asia in Agriculture Value Addition

Haq's Musings: India's Agrarian Crisis: A Farmer Commits Suicide Every 30 Minutes