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CBRN Assessment

Kashmir neighbours install new security chiefs

Bibhu Prasad Routray and Omar Hamid and Karl Dewey - IHS Jane's Intelligence Review

17 January 2017

Pakistani army tanks take part in a military exercise in Khairpur Tamiwali, Pakistan, on 16 November 2016. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif travelled to the strategic border with India to observe a drill amid escalating tensions with New Delhi over the disputed Kashmir region. Source: PA

Key PointsA series of incidents in 2015 and 2016 called into question India's ability to defend against militant incursions, although its intelligence capabilities against mobile targets appear to have improved.With India maintaining a clandestine network of agents within Pakistan, Islamabad is concerned about New Delhi's intent and capability to disrupt the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and to support insurgency in Balochistan.Likely future developments in India's intelligence posture include covert operations that seek to punish Pakistan immediately after any terrorist attack in India and aggressive targeting of Pakistani espionage within India.

The strategic tension between nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan produced a series of bilateral spats in late 2016. Most notably, a September attack on an Indian army camp near Uri in Kashmir by militants operating out of Pakistan led to purported 'surgical strikes' in retaliation by India; then, in early November, Islamabad accused eight Indian diplomats of terrorism and espionage, following mutual expulsions of diplomatic personnel one week earlier.

Intelligence operations by both countries underpin the political dynamics, and by the end of 2016 change was afoot on both sides of the border. In December, India appointed Rajiv Jain as the new head of the domestic intelligence agency, the Intelligence Bureau (IB), and Anil Dhasmana to lead the foreign intelligence agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW).

In the same month, Pakistani prime minister Nawaz Sharif appointed Lieutenant-General Naveed Mukhtar as the new director-general of the powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Mukhtar's appointment closely followed the designation of a new chief of army staff, General Qamar Bajwa, potentially signalling that Islamabad may wish to take a different direction on security and regional policy matters.

The range of bilateral challenges pitting the two countries against each other - from the contested territory of Kashmir to insurgency in Balochistan and the roll-out of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) - suggests that further clashes could occur in 2017, with the potential for rapid escalation.
 
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Land Platforms

India to deploy newly ordered T-90MS tanks along border with Pakistan

Rahul Bedi, New Delhi - IHS Jane's Defence Weekly

19 January 2017

The Indian Army (IA) plans to deploy about 464 newly ordered T-90MS main battle tanks (MBTs) along India's western and northern borders with Pakistan, military officials told IHS Jane's on 19 January.

The T-90MS MBTs, which are being acquired in kit form from Russia for INR134.80 billion (USD2 billion), will in the coming years supplement around 850-900 Bhishma MBTs currently deployed in the Indian states of Rajasthan and Punjab, both of which border Pakistan.

Bhishma is the designation for the Indian variant of the T-90S MBT, the export model of the T-90 MBT in use with the Russian Ground Forces.
 
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Land Platforms

Turkey's Altay MBT project hit by engine technology transfer issues

Kerry Herschelman, Washington, DC - IHS Jane's Defence Weekly

20 January 2017

Tümosan has cancelled a contract with AVL List to help develop a local engine for Turkey's Altay MBT, after the imposition of technology transfer restrictions by Austria. Source: Otokar

Turkey's plans to build its Altay main battle tank (MBT) have hit a snag after Tümosan, the planned engine provider, cancelled a key technical support contract with Austria's AVL List GmbH.

The cancellation comes after Austria's parliament unanimously adopted a non-binding motion that imposed an arms embargo against Turkey in November 2016. As a result conditions were placed on the transfer of technology to Turkey. Austria made the move in response to Turkey's increasing violation of human rights since the failed military coup attempt in July 2016.

Tümosan has been tasked by the Turkish Undersecretariat for Defence Industries (SSM) with developing a local engine for the Altay MBT. The company brought in Austrian firm AVL List in 2015 to provide technology transfer and support in the development and integration of engines into the Altay tank. Due to the imposition of conditions on technology transfer, Tümosan cancelled the contract with AVL List on 17 January.

"Due to the adoption by the Austrian government [of measures] to insist on export licences that include conditions that interfere in Turkey's domestic politics … the contract as recorded and revenue guarantee given by the company will be cancelled," Tümosan stated in a document published on Turkey's Public Disclosure Platform (KAP) on 17 January.

"It has been understood that there will be serious hurdles that (the company) will face in the transfer of technologies concerning critical sub-components because of sanctions being imposed against Turkey recently in particular by the European Union countries," it added.

The statement noted that instead, "Tümosan will go ahead with local suppliers as much as possible in the development of the engines".
 

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Pakistani authorities have announced the successful first test of their second nuclear-capable Ababeel ballistic missile in a month. The missile has a maximum range of 1,367 miles, and is capable of carrying multiple warheads using the Multiple Independent Re-entry Vehicle technology. Pakistan’s latest demonstration follows that of their Babur-III launch on January 9, and a number of test-firings conducted by neighboring India, which have contributed to escalating tensions between the historically hostile nations.
 
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CBRN Assessment

Pakistan tests new nuclear-capable MRBM

Gabriel Dominguez, London and Neil Gibson, London - IHS Jane's Defence Weekly

25 January 2017

Pakistan has conducted its first successful flight test of a new medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM), according to a statement by Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the media wing of the Pakistani military, on 24 January.

Pakistan has conducted its first successful flight test of the Ababeel medium-range ballistic missile, the country's military reported on 24 January. (ISPR)

Named Ababeel, the surface-to-surface MRBM has a maximum range of 2,200 km and is capable of delivering multiple warheads, including nuclear ones, using multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV) technology, according to ISPR.

"Ababeel has the capability to engage multiple targets with high precision, defeating the enemy's hostile radars," said ISPR, indicating that the weapon system's development is aimed at "ensuring [the] survivability of Pakistan's ballistic missiles in the growing regional ballistic missile defence environment.

"This will further reinforce deterrence," the statement added.

The test flight was aimed at "validating various design and technical parameters of the weapon system", ISPR said.

The announcement followed the successful test launch of Pakistan's first nuclear-capable submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM) in early January.

Named Babur-3, the SLCM was fired to a range of 450 km from an underwater, mobile platform at an undisclosed location in the Indian Ocean. Capable of delivering various types of payloads, the Babur-3 is a sea-based variant of the Babur-2 ground-launched cruise missile, which was successfully tested in December 2016, according to ISPR.
 

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Blackhawk Down
 

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Somewhere in the Siachin Glacier
 

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16387278_577276279138615_4536840972915964938_n.jpg

Any idea where was this picture taken it our COAS with Molana Tariq Jameel.
 
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16387278_577276279138615_4536840972915964938_n.jpg

Any idea where was this picture taken it our COAS with Molana Tariq Jameel.

I am 99.99999% sure that this is not Bajwa Sb. The uniform this guys is wearing is either worn by FC KPK or the SPD guys and Bajwa Sb did not serve in either and these uniforms have been introduced in recent years.

This isn't Gen Bajwa.
 
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I am 99.99999% sure that this is not Bajwa Sb. The uniform this guys is wearing is either worn by FC KPK or the SPD guys and Bajwa Sb did not serve in either and these uniforms have been introduced in recent years.

This isn't Gen Bajwa.
This is Omar Barki yes I was mistaken
 
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