Would it be possible at all to just bring all the big powers(US, Russia, China, Britain, France, Germany) to the table and propose division and annexation of Afghanistan?
Tajikistan to the north can absorb the Tajik Afghan region...same goes for Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Pakistan can get the predominantly Pukhtoon areas and the wakhan corridor. I'm not sure if they will allow Iran in this but it would be better if Iran got the areas that are somewhat culturally similar to Iranians.
Before anyone gets mad and chalks this up with colonialism and what not, do read the entire proposition. The solution is more geopolitical in nature rather than wanting territory. Hardly any country on earth would want to take the mess that is Afghanistan and sort it out.
One of the reasons why Afghanistan voted against Pakistan, doesn't want to recognize Durand line as IB, and tried to create a Pukhtoonistan movement in Pak is bcuz it wants access to the ocean. Afghanistan is landlocked and naturally it desires access to the ocean. Bcuz of this source of contention between Pak and Afghanistan, India has tried to use it to create a second front for Pak to worry about.
So if Afghanistan is split between the countries bordering it...the part going to Pak and Iran would get access to the ocean and the parts going to central Asian countries would also be fine bcuz Pak would have no problem with those countries using CPEC for trading.
Gains for Pak:
- Territory, Resources, and more manpower.
- Elimination of a possible enemy on the western front.
- Strategic depth
Challenges for Pak:
- The tribal system, gun culture, Taliban, lack of infrastructure, more mouths to feed.
Gains for Turkmenistan/Uzbekistan/Tajikistan/Iran:
- Territory, Resources, and more manpower.
Challenges for these countries:
- The tribal system, gun culture, Taliban, lack of infrastructure, more mouths to feed.
Gains for US/Britain/France/Germany:
- A way out of this expensive war
- With established governments able to assert control over territory taking over Afghanistan, it would restore order. It would no longer be a breeding ground for terrorist groups.
- These countries (Iran/Pak/Turkmenistan/Tajikistan/Uzbekistan) would have to guarantee and be responsible for making this region free of Taliban/ISIS/Al-Qaeda over a certain period of time.
Challenges for US/Britain/France/Germany: - Working with Pak/Iran/Turkmenistan/Uzbekistan/Tajikistan to see to it that the region is free of the groups that pose a threat to them.
Gains for Russia:
- An exit of US(and its allies) from Afghanistan.
- A possible opportunity to pull central Asian countries even more towards the Russian camp.
Challenges for Russia:
- As part of the group that agreed to this proposition it may have to play a role or assist the central Asian countries and possibly Iran/Pak in restoring peace and developing those Afghan regions.
Gains for China:
- An exit of US(and its allies) from Afghanistan.
- Having a second front eliminated for its key ally Pakistan so that Pakistan can play a bigger role in providing a counter balance against India.
- Opportunity to invest in the development of Afghanistan's infrastructure.
Challenges for China:
- As part of the group that agreed to this proposition it may have to play a role or assist the central Asian countries and possibly Iran/Pak in restoring peace to those Afghan regions.
Gains for Afghans:
- After decades of chaos, a chance to live peacefully.
- Better job opportunities, development of the region, better education and healthcare, a brighter future for their children, and prosperity in general compared to the current conditions.
Challenges for Afghans:
- Having to accept annexation of their country.
- Coping with a sort of new identity as a different country's citizen.
- Some initial difficulties in moving around bcuz different parts of Afghanistan would now be in different countries.
Any feedback from any member is welcome as long as it is geopolitical in nature. If u r going to write a response driven by passion of nationalism then don't bother.
@HAKIKAT @Mugwop @Joe Shearer @I.R.A @El Sidd @Signalian