10km at best.
I wonder why we are not looking into neither HQ-17 nor any CBU-105 type munition.
Due to these reasons as well as the numerical superiority of IAF, PAF will be facing serious strain in a battle of attrition. Thus we HAVE to suppress the enemy bases within 150-200km of the border at all costs. If we are able to do that we can move our armoured formations with relative ease just like the Israelis did in 67. We have to do the pre-emptive on IAF bases other wise their numbers along with decent quality will be difficult to handle and as you have pointed out our Short ranged SAMs will be useless. The bases within this range can be suppressed by A100s or Fatah which can be equipped with cluster munitions as well as the GBU-6A having a range of 120+ km, if not by PAF itself due to strong enemy AD concentration. However even that(S400 etc) can be neutralised because I bet our intel knows the locations of their AD assets which canbe then engaged by various munitions. Indians knew this aim of PA and hence one of the reasons IAF opted SU-30s( and later its integration Brahmos) was its ability to operate from air bases deeper in India,out of reach of PAF... If we are able to do this we can pretty much stop worrying about the CBU-105 problem as well. After suppressing these bases we can monitor those bases far away with ground(tps, jy27) as well as airbased radars (this point also justifies why we have more AEWACS then our commonly thought of requirements) so any package taking off from deeper enemy territory can be intercepted by PAF before reaching our armoured spearheads. I believe the current procurement of J10C (if), is not as a bomb truck or a replacement for mirages as is commonly believed, but because PAF lacks a strong capability to perform long range interception (and interdiction), deep strike missions. In short, preventing IAF from using its numbers is the key to Pakistani success both on land as well as the air.
Tbh I'm enjoying this discussion because it involves operational level discussion keeping in view the tactical level complications.