Pakistan Airforce Procurement plans after 2001- Myths and Realities

[Spectre]

@Oscar is there a hard limit to credit set by China or is it on situational basis? I mean USA has to make budgetary allocation and go to congress for approval for any deviations. In China how are these decisions taken - any clarity on that?

 

[SQ8]

@Oscar If I may add. Before the 2005 Earthquake, the PAF had reportedly (see Flight Global) envisaged acquiring 55 new-built F-16C/D Block-52+. The idea was that 60 F-16A/B MLU (i.e. 32 existing + 28 Peace Gate III/IV) and 55 Block-52+ would total to the originally planned fleet of ~110. I recall seeing the 55 figure numerous times in 2005, albeit unofficially through Western aviation media.

Regarding the next-generation platform. I believe it is important to understand that there is a big chance that the PAF will not procure this new fighter with the same level of transfer-of-technology as the JF-17. Given the significant investment made in the Thunder, we should expect continuous iterative updates into the long and very long-term. If the Northrop Grumman T-X prototype (Model 400) is of any indication, modern technology (e.g. composite materials, improved turbofans, modern avionics, etc) can enable legacy platforms to serve into the future. In other words, old JF-17s will be replaced by new JF-17s.

The next-gen fighter is really for the F-16s, to maintain the upper-end of the PAF fighter fleet and - presumably - build that strike element via a longer range and heavier payload platform. If the ToT aspect is not central to the program (perhaps just focused on domestic MRO and free flexibility in terms of subsystem and munitions integration), then the breadth of options is much wider. This could explain why the PAF has not jumped to the FC-31, but rather, is apparently keeping an eye on other designs, e.g. the Turkish TFX.

I believe I did read the requirement for 55 F-16s, but the more pragmatic elements preferred the finances shifted to the secondary strike platform.

The PAF is not too interested in the FC-31 as there were other options from within China itself available too.

@Oscar is there a hard limit to credit set by China or is it on situational basis? I mean USA has to make budgetary allocation and go to congress for approval for any deviations. In China how are these decisions taken - any clarity on that?

I cannot comment on what the limit is set by China but they were willing to provide loans even during the dire economic doom of the PPP government even as the PAF struggled to pay even the interest on the loans for its earlier purchases.

I have only three points

1) J 10 sale and purchase was very much on but the problem was AL 31 engine

Russia did nt allow for resale ( India too might have played a role )

The Visit of General Kayani to Moscow in 2012 had this agenda ie getting the
approval of AL 31 for J 10 for sale to PAF

2 )The Financial aid after 9 /11 was around 25 Billion dollars or maybe More-- till say last year

Initially ; A large part of it was used by General Musharraf to revive the economy
ie as long as he was in power

The total Remaining money was then divided by the three services

Some members assume that all 25 billion could have been used by PAF
That is not true at all

3 ) Many additional Mirage 2000s were Purchased by India after Kargil

The Mirage 2000 assembly line was open till 2007

So This statement that French refused it to PAF ; I am not sure why

May be the Price was too high

1) Incorrect. The Al-31 was the FIRST thing that came up during the negotiations and just as with the JF-17; the engine was guaranteed.

2) Incorrect. Please go deeper into the exact figures and then more into what Aid was earmarked for the military and what is for the remaining branches of government.

3) Please re-read the post. The period mentioned for the Mirages is 2004 and India finalized its last purchase of 10 M2K-H in 1999-2000. Delivery to India was in 2004 after which no new Mirage 2000 were built.

 

[SQ8]

A very Good read and it has cleared a lot of Doubt from my mind about our Military procurement's. But the question is can no one do anything about what PPP done to our country from 2008-12 period?

@Oscar

To put in terms explained by a certain economist: the PPP government was eating up 90% of Pakistan and leaving just 10% to push the wheel forward for another cycle of eating.

By contrast, the current government does about 65-70% and is actually letting some meat settle on the bones left by the PPP government.

 

[saiyan0321]

@Oscar has outdone himself with this piece. Brilliant piece. We see everyday members criticizing the airforce without any understanding of formulated plans and the economical conditions.

What I find most surprising is that many members underestimate the era of 2008-2013 which not only had the most corrupt govt in Pakistan history by far but also had pakistan forces engaged in FATA as well as combatting terrorists in Baluchistan. They also underestimate the amount of costs that went in military development in the areas.

The very first point or corrupt governance takes the cake. Every institution in pakistan was found plucked and the army was no different. The corruption was unprecedented and unbelievable and unreal and it saw nearly the end of pakistan economy. The air force and the army were struck heavily and many programs were found without funding which had a negative impact on our armed forces.

The people are quick to criticize the army on any mistake or procurement but they truly need to understand the thinking behind and the budgetary constraints...


Perhaps if the members and people want us to buy such class A toys then they should get together and help finance the armed forces. The people of pakistan want toys with conventional parity with india tooth to tooth but disappear when money comes to discussion.

We seriously need to cut the army some slack. They are fighting terrorists, starting development projects in balochistan, fata and swat and other effected areas and are overseeing the trenching of a 2250 km border along with fencing and manning whilst making sure the armed forces are strong and advanced enough to handle india and they do all this with huge budgetary constraints.

 

[rockstarIN]

@Oscar

Did PAF ever thought of leaving JFT in favour of J-10, which is more capable..just like 110 J-10s instead of 150 JFTs.

 

[Mangus Ortus Novem]

@Oscar , I came to the PAF section, because I wanted to understand the dynamcis of decision making. Wanted to educate myself.

As you rightfully mentioned in your analysis the reasons, the root causes and decisions made by PAF...all makes sense now.

Thanks to you and other insightful, rational posters I have a much better understanding now.

All in all, one can say that your PAF despite being beset by challenges in doing alright. Rather creative force.

All the best wishes to the good people of PAF/PAC.

 

[Dr Shaheryar]

Pakistan will add a mix of used F-16's from Jordan and Turkey to cover its initial plan of 110 F-16's and rest will be 200+ JF-17 and some old planes from f-7pg and Mirages with new modifications will be retained. New paltforms in the form of TFX and j-31 or J-20 will come after 2022. Hope for improvements in SAM and other force multipliers.

 

[TaimiKhan]

@Oscar

Did PAF ever thought of leaving JFT in favour of J-10, which is more capable..just like 110 J-10s instead of 150 JFTs.

I think with more capable the cost also increases. Cost of not only buying it but maintaining it.

The rationale behind JF-17 was a capable, modern yet affordable jet. Affordable is something which we often hear in marketing of JF-17s also.

PAFs strategy is to have a heavy fighter in shape of F-16s which are supported by yet another capable enough workhorse in shape of JF-17s yielded in numbers.

If PAF had though that J-10 is more suitable for them they would have gone for it especially if we see timelines of both jets to be nearly same during development phase, however JF-17s took to the skies many years later compared to J-10s.

 

[volatile]

1) J 10 sale and purchase was very much on but the problem was AL 31 engine

To some extent

Russia did nt allow for resale ( India too might have played a role )

Never seen any public denial by Russians ,RD93 is one example

The Visit of General Kayani to Moscow in 2012 had this agenda ie getting the
approval of AL 31 for J 10 for sale to PAF

Again point 1 you made clearly answers this question

2 )The Financial aid after 9 /11 was around 25 Billion dollars or maybe More-- till say last year

Initially ; A large part of it was used by General Musharraf to revive the economy
ie as long as he was in power

The total Remaining money was then divided by the three services

Some members assume that all 25 billion could have been used by PAF
That is not true at all

Pakistan incur more losses with war on terror than these aid
Pakistan suffered loss of $188bn during war on terror, says Dar
http://www.dawn.com/news/1262750/pa...feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+dawn-news+(Dawn+News)

3 ) Many additional Mirage 2000s were Purchased by India after Kargil

The Mirage 2000 assembly line was open till 2007

So This statement that French refused it to PAF ; I am not sure why

May be the Price was too high

India ordered 42+7 = 49 and current fleet they maintained around 51 so IMO 2 are brought ,PAF did not opted for Mirages as French wants them to buy Rafale ,Cost wise it fits our bill

 

[Stephen Cohen]

@Oscar @volatile

It was in Russia's interest too to stop the sales of AL 31 and J 10

J 10 would have been a direct competitor to Mig 29
Because it is similar to F 16

IF Russia had allowed AL 31 sales then its Mig 29 sales would have suffered

Even today Mig 29 is being bought for example Egypt

AL 31 costs some 3 Million dollar a unit but Mig 29 can be sold for 45 million

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Secondly though you may Not like to believe it but IAF
has Many more Mig 29s and Mirage 2000
than what the official and declared figures reveal

That is why we are going so slow on Rafale

 

[SQ8]

@Oscar @volatile

It was in Russia's interest too to stop the sales of AL 31 and J 10

J 10 would have been a direct competitor to Mig 29
Because it is similar to F 16

IF Russia had allowed AL 31 sales then its Mig 29 sales would have suffered

Even today Mig 29 is being bought for example Egypt

AL 31 costs some 3 Million dollar a unit but Mig 29 can be sold for 45 million

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Secondly though you may Not like to believe it but IAF
has Many more Mig 29s and Mirage 2000
than what the official and declared figures reveal

That is why we are going so slow on Rafale

Irrelevant information to the PAF. Please elaborate on how the Mig-29 that is powered by the RD-93s had any logic to your implying that the Russains would not sell it because somehow India has some magic numbers of Mig-29s stored away in mythical bunkers?

My post is based on verifiable and known information; I will agree to disagree entirely with you. Thanks

 

[Stephen Cohen]

Please elaborate on how the Mig-29 that is powered by the RD-93s had any logic to your implying that the Russains would not sell it because somehow India has some magic numbers of Mig-29s stored away in mythical bunkers?

Suppose China sells J 10 fitted with AL 31 to Pakistan

OTHER countries will also demand it like Egypt ; Iran ; Myanmar

All Mig 29 operators would like to have a LOOK at J 10

Then the sales of MIG 29 which is nearly equal to J 10 will suffer

A single engined JF 17 is not a threat to Mig 29

But a AL 31 fitted J 10 is a threat to Mig 29

Russia allowed the sale of RD 93 because JF 17 is not a threat to Mig 29

SO it was also in Russia's interest to block the RE sale of AL 31

China needed J 10 for its own security ; SO Russia sold AL 31 to it

But the re sale of AL 31 ie J 10 by China would Hurt Russia

 

[MastanKhan]

. But the precarious situation gets compounded as we do not priorities smart enough.....Why PAF had to sacrifice its budget for the Earth quake while our corrupt politicians wasted money and robbed national exchequer on daily basis. One example from Israel, Golda Meir was female PM of Israel during 1969-74, Israel had a bad economy but she signed an expensive deal with USA for defence acquisitions for which she was criticised in the parliament but she stood her ground and later she revealed her motivation " I learned this from the life of the Prophet of Islam (Muhammad (ﷺ)), when he died he had no assets not even food in home but nine swords were hanging on walls of his room"..
The history does not remember or care for how many eggs were available for the breakfast but how powerful was the nation and how it played its role in the world.

Hi,

My colleague---Oscar has written up story on behalf of the Paf for the failure of the Paf and it is well appreciated.

And you @war&peace has written an account of Golda Meir that I should have posted years ago on this forum---because who has given more example than me on this board of how the israelis have accumulated weapons and what price they had to pay to get those weapons during their periods of duress and hardships over the years---shame on me.

If a Yehudan can follow the practices of Prophet Muhammad in weapons procurement---then what stopped the paf heirarchy for doing so---.

I go back to my claim of TRAITORS in high places of the Paf---who were only looking for ways to fill their pockets and offensive capabilities were of no concern.

It also shows that the air force is not able and mentally capable to make timely decisions when it came to getting the right aircraft in times of duress.

The post also shows that the Paf has no concept of time---they had shown no urgency---they did not have an overall bird's eye view of the bigger picture---they had no clue of the time constraints that they had or they will have---.

They also did not understand and could not comprehend that their new found alliance was having a negative effect on the neighbor---and the neighbor had a started a very forceful and strong campaign against pakistan.

And that lack of understanding comes from being TOTALLY ARROGANT---which clearly shows in their posture---.

It also shows that there was no devil's advocate to guide them---that there was no one in position of strength to talk to them---it was basically all yessir yessir yessir---.

The article also shows that the Paf was focussed on the JF17---and they were also focussed on french EW suite for the aircraft---but they had no clue how to seal the deal---how to get the French in their grips---because the mmrca tender was already open and the French had placed the Mirage 2k in that.

Paf could have easily snagged the Rafale---and instead of 40---or 36---they could have gone for 24---28 or 30----.

The article clearly shows that the Paf had no comprenhnsion of the ever changing scenario----and that is a shame.

Hi,

As for the availability of the J10's from china----since the SCS has heated up ln 2013-14 and more so now---and china sees itself cornered---every weapons system is available to pakistan---because any threat to pakistan is a more serious threat to china at this time---.

 

[Dr Shaheryar]

Hi,

My colleague---Oscar has written up story on behalf of the Paf for the failure of the Paf and it is well appreciated.

And you @war&peace has written an account of Golda Meir that I should have posted years ago on this forum---because who has given more example than me on this board of how the israelis have accumulated weapons and what price they had to pay to get those weapons during their periods of duress and hardships over the years---shame on me.

If a Yehudan can follow the practices of Prophet Muhammad in weapons procurement---then what stopped the paf heirarchy for doing so---.

I go back to my claim of TRAITORS in high places of the Paf---who were only looking for ways to fill their pockets and offensive capabilities were of no concern.

It also shows that the air force is not able and mentally capable to make timely decisions when it came to getting the right aircraft in times of duress.

The post also shows that the Paf has no concept of time---they had shown no urgency---they did not have an overall bird's eye view of the bigger picture---they had no clue of the time constraints that they had or they will have---.

They also did not understand and could not comprehend that their new found alliance was having a negative effect on the neighbor---and the neighbor had a started a very forceful and strong campaign against pakistan.

And that lack of understanding comes from being TOTALLY ARROGANT---which clearly shows in their posture---.

It also shows that there was no devil's advocate to guide them---that there was no one in position of strength to talk to them---it was basically all yessir yessir yessir---.

The article also shows that the Paf was focussed on the JF17---and they were also focussed on french EW suite for the aircraft---but they had no clue how to seal the deal---how to get the French in their grips---because the mmrca tender was already open and the French had placed the Mirage 2k in that.

Paf could have easily snagged the Rafale---and instead of 40---or 36---they could have gone for 24---28 or 30----.

The article clearly shows that the Paf had no comprenhnsion of the ever changing scenario----and that is a shame.

Hi,

As for the availability of the J10's from china----since the SCS has heated up ln 2013-14 and more so now---and china sees itself cornered---every weapons system is available to pakistan---because any threat to pakistan is a more serious threat to china at this time---.

Is their any verifiable source that predicts the comparison of MIG 29 SU30 J-10 and JF-17 in term of combat proven fighters.

 

[The Diplomat]

We will still be operating F-7PG's in 2020? I though air force had plans to retire them. And does that mean we may see a 5th Gen. development program in Pakistan like the JF-17 program?