Pak race for tactical nukes adds new poison to the mix

[vsdoc]

Some excerpts from a white paper titled:

THE PAST AS PROLOGUE: A CAUTIONARY TALE OF THE U.S. EXPERIENCE WITH TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS

By David O. Smith

The Problems with Employing Tactical Nuclear Weapons

This organizational and political inertia about TNWs continues more than two decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union. According to Dr. Richard Weitz, there are still an estimated 150 NATO TNWs in Europe and 3-4000 Russian deployed TNWs.19 Why, then, has the consensus emerged among knowledgeable analysts that TNWs lack much if any utility on the modern battlefield? The main reasons can be briefly summarized below.

TNWs add nothing to deterrence

TNWs invite preemption

TNWs are not useful against armored forces

TNWs complicate command, control, and communications (C3)

Nuclear release authority for tactical targets is difficult to obtain

TNW are difficult to secure when deployed

TNW units require scarce manpower

TNW launch units must be withdrawn from battle to ensure their survivability

TNWs are not decisive

 

[somebozo]

This has been dissected threadbare by experts bro.

There are too many holes.

What if the IA does not advance beyond Lahore?

You nuke an IA armored column, you play your hand.

And a very weak one at that.

There is no ambiguity about our response to a nuke on an advancing IA formation.

You have just exposed your reluctance to enforce your own stated red line. Diluted it.

this is the biggest fault line..India think they are USA that and that Pakistan will welcome their invading armies with roses and that nuke attack on invading indian forces on Pakistan land will give India the right to retaliate..think twice india supah powah !

 

[notorious_eagle]

What if the IA does not advance beyond Lahore?

Capture of Lahore is a red line, expect the nukes to come into play. IA knows it very well that PA cannot afford to loose Lahore, its simply too valuable.

You nuke an IA armored column, you play your hand.

Not quite. The hand goes much more deeper than that. .

And a very weak one at that.

You would have to expand on that please? Firing one nuke does not robs PA of her other nukes.

There is no ambiguity about our response to a nuke on an advancing IA formation.

You have just exposed your reluctance to enforce your own stated red line. Diluted it.

If PA's Strategic Command does decide to fire a tactical nuke, the order will go out to start assembling the strategic nukes. It will be up to IA whether she wants to fry up the entire Subcontinent over an Armoured Column. Although i do agree with you that this is a very tricky scenario with lots of holes in it.

Pakistan's red lines are quite simply, any capture of strategic location or the destruction of most of the assets would amount to a nuclear strike.

 

[vsdoc]

this is the biggest fault line..India think they are USA that and that Pakistan will welcome their invading armies with roses and that nuke attack on invading indian forces on Pakistan land will give India the right to retaliate..think twice india supah powah !

No one is talking of roses. Fight back if you must when the time comes.

The talk is centered around tactical nukes (Pakistan's "nuclear artillery" if you must) and wargaming such a scenario.

The warning volley in front of / on top of an advancing IA artillery column specifically.

 

[vsdoc]

Sorry double post.

 

[Jango]

The scenario which vsdoc painted, is on the basis that IA comes very close to Lahore. Now the time frame should also be kept in mind in this whole scenario, and the international politics as well.

A capture or attack on Lahore would not be on the cards on the first day, or even the 3rd one. PA has enough capability to defend Lahore and it's surroundings for atleast one week, a time by which the international community/UN will come into play to try to defuse the tension and make a ceasefire, because the world isn't going to let 2 nuclear powers fight for this long time, a time after which the thought of devastation through nukes comes into play.

And I don't think PA is really going to think of using a tactical nuke in the infancy of the supposed war, this thought will come only as a last resort, when our most vital installations are at risk. And as that is going to take atleast a week for the IA, tactical nukes can remain in storage.

IMO, they are just another option on the table, nothing more than that. These delivery vehicles can be used with conventional warheads as well!

 

[Secur]

Don't talk rubbish! No so called 'Cold Start' doctrine was ever practiced during any exercise! That concept is just an idea on paper and not a laid down doctrine.

Tactical nukes is a bad, bad idea. Though India's nuclear doctrine is based on 'No First Use', it clearly lays out that an attack by Pakistan with a nuke will invite all out and massive retaliation with all nuclear assets at its disposal.

Kid , learn to behave yourself ... Even an idea on IA's paper if I accept that for the sake of argument despite powerful evidence to the contrary starting from Operation Brasstacks to Operation Parakram , is considered a threat and merits a response and preparedness by the country's strategic forces What guarantee is anyone providing that it wont materialize and be adopted as an doctrine in your army if not already ?

Yes , SPD will be sitting quiet during the whole episode you have assumed surely ! When the tactical nukes will be fired , the whole central command will go on high alert ...

 

[Secur]

What if the IA does not advance beyond Lahore?

You nuke an IA armored column, you play your hand.

There is no ambiguity about our response to a nuke on an advancing IA formation.

What makes you think it wont ?

Yes , we do and present you with a dilemma ... Retreat , save a billion or continue , lose a billion ... What would you chose ?

I am sure there isn't ... But there isn't any ambiguity about Pakistan's counter response either ...

 

[vsdoc]

Capture of Lahore is a red line, expect the nukes to come into play. IA knows it very well that PA cannot afford to loose Lahore, its simply too valuable.

Lahore is liable to fall in a blitzkrieg type of attack, especially in a pincer. You would nuke India when 20 million Pakistanis are under the Indian gun - directly? Not to mention what will come later in response?

This is a very big hole that Pakistan has consistently bluffed it out. The fact is Lahore is vulnerable. Our recent efforts at brigade level mobilization bordering on division level have reinforced that belief amongst you as well.

Not quite. The hand goes much more deeper than that.

You would have to expand on that please? Firing one nuke does not robs PA of her other nukes.

We know that. As do you. That is what is being discussed. Tactical vs Strategic.

If PA's Strategic Command does decide to fire a tactical nuke, the order will go out to start assembling the strategic nukes. It will be up to IA whether she wants to fry up the entire Subcontinent over an Armoured Column. Although i do agree with you that this is a very tricky scenario with lots of holes in it.

Depends on what your nuclear command and control doctrine entails (I do not have the details). But I do know that a tactical nuke, once deployed, is de-centralized to brigade level. A very risky proposition that the Americans and Soviets faced on many occasions.

Pakistan's red lines are quite simply, any capture of strategic location or the destruction of most of the assets would amount to a nuclear strike.

If we advance, and capture and hold, or breach, tactical nukes do nothing extra for you in addition to your strategic assets.

If anything, they weaken your stance and embolden your advancing enemy.

Not to mention make the entire area and very very dangerous place to be in.

 

[xyxmt]

Indians please dont fall off your chair on every nuke article about Pakistan from irresponsible and fear mongering indian journalists. there will be no war between Pakistan and India from now to eternity. relations will only improve, we may not becomes brothers from different mothers but we will co-exist peacefully. I am one who sees strategic partnership between India and Pakistan in say 10 years.

 

[vsdoc]

Indians please dont fall off your chair on every nuke article about Pakistan from irresponsible and fear mongering indian journalists. there will be no war between Pakistan and India from now to eternity. relations will only improve, we may not becomes brothers from different mothers but we will co-exist peacefully. I am one who sees strategic partnership between India and Pakistan in say 10 years.

It is now open knowledge on international fora that your nukes/components are being transported from one site to another in quick succession in civilian vehicular transports (buses).

 

[xyxmt]

Lahore is liable to fall in a blitzkrieg type of attack, especially in a pincer. You would nuke India when 20 million Pakistanis are under the Indian gun - directly? Not to mention what will come later in response?

This is a very big hole that Pakistan has consistently bluffed it out. The fact is Lahore is vulnerable. Our recent efforts at brigade level mobilization bordering on division level have reinforced that belief amongst you as well.





We know that. As do you. That is what is being discussed. Tactical vs Strategic.



Depends on what your nuclear command and control doctrine entails (I do not have the details). But I do know that a tactical nuke, once deployed, is de-centralized to brigade level. A very risky proposition that the Americans and Soviets faced on many occasions.



If we advance, and capture and hold, or breach, tactical nukes do nothing extra for you in addition to your strategic assets.

If anything, they weaken your stance and embolden your advancing enemy.

Not to mention make the entire area and very very dangerous place to be in.

If this happens then that happens and then it will happen this way provided you dont do this and we do that.
in essence you are saying people can goto moon on a motor cycle.

oh by the way you should also know how many lahoris are loaded with guns, and not the guns for personal protection

 

[Secur]

It is now open knowledge on international fora that your nukes/components are being transported from one site to another in quick succession in civilian vehicular transports (buses).

Nah ! Make it carts , bullocks , camels and horses ...

A single piece of article written by a person hooked on LSD was enough to convince you that it is some sort of open knowledge on International level ? ...

If we advance, and capture and hold, or breach, tactical nukes do nothing extra for you in addition to your strategic assets.

The thresholds are low and your adversary trigger happy and determined ... So again , you are presented with the same dilemma ... Are you willing to risk the lives of a billion people just for a couple of IBG's ?

 

[vsdoc]

Nah ! Make it carts , bullocks , camels and horses ...

A single piece of article written by a person hooked on LSD was enough to convince you that it is some sort of open knowledge on International level ? ...

It is not in the realm of fiction. There was an attack by the Bader in the 80s in Germany that nearly breached the defenses of where tactical nukes were being held.

Your response to various attacks on military installations in the recent past has been less than stellar.

 

[Rajput_Pakistani]

The scenario which vsdoc painted, is on the basis that IA comes very close to Lahore. Now the time frame should also be kept in mind in this whole scenario, and the international politics as well.

A capture or attack on Lahore would not be on the cards on the first day, or even the 3rd one. PA has enough capability to defend Lahore and it's surroundings for atleast one week, a time by which the international community/UN will come into play to try to defuse the tension and make a ceasefire, because the world isn't going to let 2 nuclear powers fight for this long time, a time after which the thought of devastation through nukes comes into play.

And I don't think PA is really going to think of using a tactical nuke in the infancy of the supposed war, this thought will come only as a last resort, when our most vital installations are at risk. And as that is going to take atleast a week for the IA, tactical nukes can remain in storage.

IMO, they are just another option on the table, nothing more than that. These delivery vehicles can be used with conventional warheads as well!

Sir, with due respect some points regarding IA invading Lahore.
If Indian Generals have a little sense they will never try to enter Lahore. As of now Lahore city has expanded right upto the border. DHA phase 7 & 8 are located just 10km inside Ghondi border Barki road. Villages of Hudyara & Barki are now populated town+BRB Canal is still a formidable obstacle. Any IA attack in Lahore will stuck right into its tracks. Even 5kms advance will be a miracle and will cause a huge loss to Indians. There is also no use of using TNW by PA in Lahore sector.

Indians (if a full fledged war breaks out) will try to thrust in Bahawalpur+Rahim yaar Khan sector. That place is ideal for division size armored attack. TNW in that area, where the population is at least 100kms away will be a huge plus. A single tactical nuclear attack on an attacking armored division will destroy it in a minute.

Some points for Indians,,

** TNW is itself a deterrent against your so called cold war doctrine or your 1987 war doctrine. Any Indian commander (with some reasonable IQ ) will think 1000 times before carrying on such adventure. Because once your strike corps are wiped out, what will you be left to fight with? Ok, you according to your declared doctrine will attack Pakistan with a strategic nuclear weapon?? Is this really possible? Think for a while..
Scenario:

IA strike corps is destroyed by a TNW in Rajhistan. Indian commanders brief the Prime minister about the ground situation and asked for retaliation on Pakistan with full fledged nuclear attack. PM will ask them that after nuclear strike on Pakistan will we be able to achieve our objective or just we want to satisfy our ego by killing unarmed millions of civilians? After all militarily India has suffered huge losses already..

** Will the international community allow you to attack civilians by nuclear weapon?

So, there is no way India can attack Pakistan with strategic nuclear weapons after its strike corps are wiped out by a TNW.