Pak exchanged N-tech for N Korean long range missiles: US

[gambian]

this is all bull ****!!

 

[Jihad]

So..and now what?
The U.S. bombed Hiroshima, Nagasaki AND invaded Iraq, killing tens of thousands of Iraqis with them aswell.
Who cares about them right?
This is something from the past, leave it behind, every country does things in her own interests, the U.S. has no business in this.
It's just to keep pressure on Pakistan and so fort, same old story, they should quit it with the B.S. and get off our backs.

 

[ajpirzada]

iran libya and other arab countries gave us the money in return. i was readin an article few days back which said pakistan intially spent $20bn on her nuclear programe and later spent upto $80bn. now i dont see us having that much money in 90s when we were under sanctions.
also centrifuge design was not stolen but it was available to anyone in 70s.
about north korea again we dont know wat exactly we got from north korea despite having access to china. bainazir in her book wrote that she carried a disc (with related info) with her when she went to north korea in early 90s.
our Gov and establishment were all equally involved in this and knew wat was goin on. blamin AQ Khan is just easy way to save ones a$$
we can all blame AQ Khan for all this but in the end none of us knows the reality and till then it better to stay shut. all of us here try to act lik custodians of nuk weapon who know every aspect of pakistan's nuk and missile programe. truth is we only know what has been published in western papers in which they have only tried to connect the dots by making their own assumptions

'wat we did was necessary and had to be done' stand true unless we come to know the reality which is still far from gettin revealed. and who knows this reality.. its the pakistani establishment, gov and scientists.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

iran libya and other arab countries gave us the money in return. i was readin an article few days back which said pakistan intially spent $20bn on her nuclear programe and later spent upto $80bn. now i dont see us having that much money in 90s when we were under sanctions.

M Ahmed had a good rebuttal to that point on Pak Def:

Well the clown that Farrukh Saleem is, he should have known that when the United States was working on the Manhattan Project, it was the first time that mankind had embarked on harnessing the power of atomic energy. It was the first time that uranium exploration, mining and refining, conversion, enrichment, nuclear fuel fabrication and reprocessing, i.e. the nuclear fuel cycle was being mastered. In this process, several techniques and methods were being employed simultaenously, especially with regard to uranium enrichment.

These included electromagnetic separation, gas-centrifuge, gasseous-diffusion etc. Ultimately gassesous diffusion was chosen as the main technique over other methods, while a lot of work was also being done on the weapons design and development side, with all the pioneering work being done in developing an implosion trigger mechanism. And there were no precision engineering machines, or computers to aid the engineers and scientists. Everything was being done on a trial and error basis and on war footing.

So when Pakistan embarked on a nuclear weapons program in 1972-74, it was not a question of re-inventing the wheel. We only had to master the already proven technologies about which abundant literature was available.

Secondly, unlike the Manhattan Project, hundreds of Pakistanis had been trained and educated in several western nuclear establishments, which further reduced the need for spending unnecessarily on any trial and error based first time solutions, though extensive R&D according to Pakistani requirments was definitely done.

Also, Pakistan, like all countries trying to build the bomb since Hiroshima and Nagasaki were essentially concerned with reverse engineering and not going full circle to where the Americans started at the beginning of the Manhattan Project.

Therefore, the contention that Pakistan may have spent the same amount as the US did on its nuclear program is hogwash.

Regards.

Pakistan did not spend anywhere close to that amount on its nuclear program. In addition, Gaddafi and Libya's relations with Pakistan were estranged after Bhutto was hung, and they stayed that way for a long time, so arguing that Libya still gave us money does not sound plausible - and even if Libya did somehow fund our nuclear program, why would we give a dud to them in exchange?

In terms of Iran funding our nuclear program, I raise the same question as before. Why would we proliferate to Iran given the tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and the possibility that the Saudis may have funded some of our programs?

Even if the Saudi's did not fund any of our strategic programs, we know for a fact that Pakistan had a very strong strategic relationship with them since they pumped billions into the Afghan Jihad, and ton of money later into our efforts to shore up the Taliban regime, and supported our diplomatic efforts in recognizing them. That entire relationship would have been under threat had the Saudis known that we were knowingly proliferating to Iran.

The dots just do not connect at all in terms of the GoP or Military leadership supporting proliferation to Iran and Libya.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

We are confusing the issue here. The real question is not the motive behind proliferation but if proliferation did indeed take place - and there is no denying that. Its a well established fact that proliferation of the worst kind did indeed take place from Pakistan under the direction of the Army.

As for the motive behind proliferation to North Korea, we all know. But for the motive behind proliferation to Iran and Libya, you will have to ask the Generals in Rawalpindi. I can only take a wild guess (Islamic bomb, threaten Israel) but the Generals are more qualified to answer this.

Buddy i pointed out earlier about the tight grip that the Pakistan Army maintains on the Nuclear Program. Tell me honestly if you think that AQ.Khan could have done it with ought them knowing it??

The motive is extremely important - even NK's madman has not proliferated nuclear and missile technology without getting something in return.

To argue that the PA and/or GoP decided to risk international censure and sanctions for nothing but a 'whim' is a ludicrous suggestion.

And while you talk about the PA having 'strict control over the nuclear program', I'll raise my earlier point with you - Everything AQ Khan did to set up Pakistan's nuclear program involved far greater magnitudes of proliferation from the West to Pakistan than Pakistan allegedly ever proliferated to North Korea, Iran and Libya - so does that mean that Western governments knowingly proliferated to Pakistan?

Did Western governments not exercise strict controls over their nuclear programs?

 

[Patriot]

True..I guess Holland as well as Switzerland proliferated to Pakistan.

 

[Schultz]

The motive is extremely important - if NK's madman has not proliferated nuclear and missile technology without getting something in return.

To argue that the PA and/or GoP decided to risk international censure and sanctions for nothing but a 'whim' is a ludicrous suggestion.

Hey i thought that we both where clear on this - Pakistan gave them help with Nuke tech and got missile tech in the bargain. When did i say that Pakistan got nothing in return.

And while you talk about the PA having 'strict control over the nuclear program', I'll raise my earlier point with you - Everything AQ Khan did to set up Pakistan's nuclear program involved far greater magnitudes of proliferation from the West to Pakistan than Pakistan allegedly ever proliferated to North Korea, Iran and Libya - so does that mean that Western governments knowingly proliferated to Pakistan?

Did Western governments not exercise strict controls over their nuclear programs?

You are trying to compare Oranges and Apples here. While proliferation did take place from the west it happened with ought the active knowledge of western governments. For eg - AQ stole centrifuge designs from the dutch company that he was working in. Yes countries like the Netherlands had been lax with their security then. Pls also note that such designs could not be stole from the US, Britain and France, for they exercised tight control over their nuclear program.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Hey i thought that we both where clear on this - Pakistan gave them help with Nuke tech and got missile tech in the bargain. When did i say that Pakistan got nothing in return.

We aren't clear on this at all. I don't believe you read my previous posts. A separate organization from AQ Khan's was developing the more advanced solid fueled Shaheen series of missiles, so why would the GoP and Military leadership authorize purchasing a less advanced liquid fueled missile from NK?

You are trying to compare Oranges and Apples here. While proliferation did take place from the west it happened with ought the active knowledge of western governments. For eg - AQ stole centrifuge designs from the dutch company that he was working in. Yes countries like the Netherlands had been lax with their security then. Pls also note that such designs could not be stole from the US, Britain and France, for they exercised tight control over their nuclear program.

My point is that AQ Khan was able to violate the controls and security in place with the contacts he established to obtain technology from developed countries in the West that had decades of experience and well established and matured institutions responsible for the security and controls on their programs.

In contrast Pakistan was, and is, a developing country with weak institutions and little experience in controls (we developed ours in the aftermath of the AQ Khan episode being brought to light). In fact, AQ Khan was given a tremendous amount of leeway to operate his network in terms of obtaining nuclear technology for Pakistan. Do you think when he was obtaining technology for Pakistan that every one knew where he was flying off too or who he was meeting?

The very secrecy and latitude he enjoyed in order to operate his network successful to ensure a flow of technology to Pakistan enabled him to also do so in the reverse direction, without official sanction and knowledge.

Pakistan's controls were weak, that has been acknowledged, but no motive or reason for officially proliferating to the 3 countries mentioned has been provided. And weak controls do not automatically imply state support for proliferation, otherwise some Western countries should also be accused of the same.

 

[ajpirzada]

We aren't clear on this at all. I don't believe you read my previous posts. A separate organization from AQ Khan's was developing the more advanced solid fueled Shaheen series of missiles, so why would the GoP and Military leadership authorize purchasing a less advanced liquid fueled missile from NK?


My point is that AQ Khan was able to violate the controls and security in place with the contacts he established to obtain technology from developed countries in the West that had decades of experience and well established and matured institutions responsible for the security and controls on their programs.

In contrast Pakistan was, and is, a developing country with weak institutions and little experience in controls (we developed ours in the aftermath of the AQ Khan episode being brought to light). In fact, AQ Khan was given a tremendous amount of leeway to operate his network in terms of obtaining nuclear technology for Pakistan. Do you think when he was obtaining technology for Pakistan that every one knew where he was flying off too or who he was meeting?

The very secrecy and latitude he enjoyed in order to operate his network successful to ensure a flow of technology to Pakistan enabled him to also do so in the reverse direction, without official sanction and knowledge.

Pakistan's controls were weak, that has been acknowledged, but no motive or reason for officially proliferating to the 3 countries mentioned has been provided. And weak controls do not automatically imply state support for proliferation, otherwise some Western countries should also be accused of the same.

that is again ur understanding of the situation and not the reality. i can put this same question the other way round and ask do u really think our army establishment which ruled the country for half of her age did not know wat AQ Khan was doing?
the point is that no one really knows who was involved and y it was done. or in some cases if it was even done or not.
neither you nor me can claim anything for sure. nor does the US know who was involved in wat. may be saveral decades from today we might find out the reality when someone from within speaks up.
we got wat we needed and that is all wat i care about given most of the countries were part of this prolifiration network at one stage.

you could be rit about the total cost of our nuclear programe. i only got those figures from on article and given there is no such info available to public i cant prove anything.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

that is again ur understanding of the situation and not the reality. i can put this same question the other way round and ask do u really think our army establishment which ruled the country for half of her age did not know wat AQ Khan was doing?

AJpirzada,

The reality is that there exists no motive and no benefit for Pakistan to proliferate to Iran or Libya - the strategic relationship we had with the Saudi's is fact, the really poor relationship we had with the Libyan's after Bhutto was killed is also fact.

The only place where motive and possible benefit outweighing the costs exists is North Korea, and even there the motive is murky since Pakistan was developing more advanced missiles than those North Korea had to offer.

It is also fact that Western entities proliferated far more technology to us than we did to North Korea, despite being more advanced, so it is not at all impossible for proliferation to occur without official sanction.

Finally, beyond all of this, Pakistan was not and is not a NPT signatory. So even if we had proliferated officially to all of these nations, we broke no treaties or agreements we were party to, and therefore committed no wrong.

 

[notsuperstitious]

That is where the part about AQ Khan acting on his own, or at least without State knowledge (even if he had other high level collaborators/facilitators), comes into play.

As I mentioned earlier, Pakistan had an indigenous missile program in the form of the Shaheen series being developed by NESCOM at the same time as AQ Khan was allegedly proliferating to NK for missile Tech.

Keep in mind that the majority of the work on Pakistan's nuclear program was not being done by AQ Khan's organization, but the PAEC, and there was quite a bit of tension between the two. It was the PAEC that developed the Pakistani bomb designs and conducted Pakistan's tests, with AQ Khan invited as a 'guest/observer'.

As you suggested, Pakistan gained nothing from proliferating to Iran or Libya. In fact, analysts have speculated that Pakistan has an arrangement with Saudi Arabia that it will provide a nuclear umbrella to it if Iran obtains the bomb - so that makes the possibility of Pakistan officially proliferating to Iran even less plausible.

All of this suggests to me that AQ Khan proliferated largely on his own, possibly with some other high level facilitators, but not with the knowledge of the Government or Military - there just does not appear to be any justification or advantage to do so, nor was Khan's organization the primary one developing Pakistani nukes, which could explain why he sold duds to Libya, and Chinese notes and papers to Iran.

And you find that consistent with AQ Khan's subsequent 'pardon'?

Why is this thing being hush hushed w/o even a decent public enquiry? Do you expect pakistan to be taken seriously w/o one?

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

And you find that consistent with AQ Khan's subsequent 'pardon'?

Why is this thing being hush hushed w/o even a decent public enquiry? Do you expect pakistan to be taken seriously w/o one?

I already commented on this - despite AQ Khan's role in proliferating, his contributions to the development of Pakistan's nuclear program are significant, and his reputation as a 'national hero' is deserved.

Pakistan did the right thing by removing him from any position of authority or positions from where he could continue proliferating, and placed him under strict observation, along with his public 'apology'. But Pakistan also did the right thing by keeping in mind his contributions to Pakistan and pardoning him - that is the President's prerogative in many nations.

As someone deeply involved in many secret strategic Pakistani programs, asking for a public inquiry when that might result in classified information being revealed, is really a no go. The amount of classified information he possesses is also why there is no chance of anyone but the GoP having access to him for interrogation purposes.

No country in the world would allow something like that.

A strong, state of the art nuclear command and control process has been put in place since the AQ Khan activities came to light, anti-proliferation laws passed, export control restrictions put in place, and all those in Pakistan who were involved in AQ Khan's network have been punished and/or removed from positions where they could continue their activities.

Given the above steps, I fully expect the world to take Pakistan seriously - it has done a tremendous amount to the point where it does not compromise national security.

 

[notsuperstitious]

I already commented on this - despite AQ Khan's role in proliferating, his contributions to the development of Pakistan's nuclear program are significant, and his reputation as a 'national hero' is deserved.

Pakistan did the right thing by removing him from any position of authority or positions from where he could continue proliferating, and placed him under strict observation, along with his public 'apology'. But Pakistan also did the right thing by keeping in mind his contributions to Pakistan and pardoning him - that is the President's prerogative in many nations.

As someone deeply involved in many secret strategic Pakistani programs, asking for a public inquiry when that might result in classified information being revealed, is really a no go. The amount of classified information he possesses is also why there is no chance of anyone but the GoP having access to him for interrogation purposes.

No country in the world would allow something like that.

A strong, state of the art nuclear command and control process has been put in place since the AQ Khan activities came to light, anti-proliferation laws passed, export control restrictions put in place, and all those in Pakistan who were involved in AQ Khan's network have been punished and/or removed from positions where they could continue their activities.

Given the above steps, I fully expect the world to take Pakistan seriously - it has done a tremendous amount to the point where it does not compromise national security.

I agree that who's a hero and how he's treated is Pakistan's prerogative. And it would be nobody's business if the proliferation did not threaten any other nation. Imagine countries like S Korea, Japan etc, since they face a possible holocaust, they deserve to know all. Nuke tech is no common issue, while noone is challenging Pakistan's technical right to handle the issue their way, Pakistan must also be prepared for world's skepticism as the world has not been taken into confidence about an issue that threatens other nations.

What Pakistan has done wrt the C&C for nukes is the bare minimum any nuke power must do.

 

[blain2]

Yeah but don't you think dealing with North Korea of all nations would harm Pakistan's credibility? The past is the past, but if a nation is desperate enough to give a madman nuclear technology then what guarantees can that country possibly provide if its threat perception hasn't changed or maybe even got worse?

If Pakistan was already collaborating with the Chinese, why go out of your way to damage your international image? I guess it doesn't matter anymore, but I'm trying to get my head around the GOP. from an Indian perspective, this only adds to the already long list of sketchy behavior (from our perspective obviously).

Why exactly do you think Pakistan did what it did? Do you think simply working with China would have made things a lot simpler?

Does MTCR ring a bell? China is a signatory...NK is not.

Pakistan will deal with whomsoever can provide her with the wherewithal for her own security. NK is an independent country and just because GWII called it a part of Axis of evil (by the way you have been dealing with the other member of this axis of evil - Iran, all the while too), it does not mean that Pakistan should not be dealing with them.

All this talk of embarrassing this or that is just hog-wash. After all we are talking about the security of Pakistan. Since what is in the past is already done with and Pakistan has attained what it intended to attain and has promised that it will not be a party to further proliferation (all the while knowing that it will be penalized for the past), the reality is that just like sanctions, these penalties cannot last forever.

 

[blain2]

What Pakistan has done wrt the C&C for nukes is the bare minimum any nuke power must do.

Lets just hope that India has something close to what Pakistan has. I am sure if the world starting digging into the Indian C&C for their nukes, more issues would come out than those around the Pakistani one (ours is technically very secure, the perception issue is the challenge), on your side I have my doubts about the physical and technical security of it.