PAF's possible answer to MRCA

[PAFAce]

I think that info is wrong, cause the trials will start between this and next month and a decision will be announced at the end of 2010, or beginning 2011. Production in India will start around 2014 but in the meantime the first squad will be in production outside of India.

As of February 16, 2009, the CAS of IAF, ACM Fali Homi Major, was hopeful that "By 2017 we will have what we want", referring to the MMRCA competition. This tells me that he is looking beyond a 2013/14 delivery date, but I may have misinterpreted his meaning. Also, the article was titled "Last Man Standing: Patience will likely be a virtue in India's multibillion-dollar fighter duel", and on the Table of Contents it said "Participants in India's fighter competition girding for long haul, test of stamina for the $10-billion prize". All this points out that the MMRCA selection is way behind where they want it to be (winner announced by 2010), which is understandable, since nobody had initially expected such a huge contest anyway.

A solid backbone yes, but but only at the lower end of PAF! You must admit that it won't be as good as J10 or F16 block 52 and these will be the quality fighters of PAF.

That is exactly what I said. The backbone fighter isn't always the best fighter, the one-two punch will still be F-16 MLU/Block52 and FC-20.

The quantitative edge might be reduced a bit, but with MKI, MMRCA and already inducted AWACS and in development 5. gen fighter the qualitatively edge will stay clearly on IAF side.

It is difficult to say whether the qualitative gap between the PAF and IAF will increase, decrease or remain the same. We must remember that F-16MLU, F-16 Block52s, FC-20 and the Erieye and ZDK-03 combination will significantly boost PAF capabilities. I, personally, expect the quantitative gap to increase, in favor of India, but still remain within Pakistan's comfort zone after the new inductions. As for quality, I can't comment on whether the gap will increase or decrease, there are just too many unknowns. I do expect India to maintain its qualitative superiority for at least a few years.

Also, as blain said, the IAF is not going to have an operational 5th generation fighter anytime soon. I doubt it will even have one by the end of the next decade since the MMRCA will finish induction in 2020+ (according to your CAS). It would be foolish for the PAF to try to counter that potential threat right now, but planning ahead is always a good idea.

IMO PAF is counting on the wrong aircraft and should build numbers of J10 instead of JF17.

Allow me to respectfully but strongly disagree. I believe the JF-17 is the perfect fighter for us to be producing. Numbers of the FC-20 will increase over time, I don't expect only 36 to be inducted. Just as the IAF is taking its own sweet time in deciding the MMRCA, the PAF is probably doing the same. Any induction in the PAF will have to be reactive, depending on the threat assessment. Give it a few years.

 

[SBD-3]

I know JF-17 is perhaps not one of the top line ACs but it is very important in terms of
1) PAF will acquire significant knowledge of AC manufacturing
2) Low cost and Manintainence
3) Faster Availability
4) Rapid Local Adaptibility in case of FC-20 or J-11 as lot of avionics simmilarities
JF-17 Block 2 and three will be significantly upgraded and at par with most moderen ACs in Avionics.In AWACS front PAF will have significant Advantage by achieveing greater Radar Coverage than IAF.With MICA meteor BVRs inducted in Block 2 it will be a force to recon in the ACs world.
if JF 17-X becomes a reality (Possiblity) PAF would be able to siginificantly reduce the gap

 

[Wingman]

I think in Indian MRCA race F-16 have 51% chances and F-18 49%.
I think PAF's admiration of F-16 has earned it a lot of respect and perhaps made it the most sold aircraft from US.
The element of enemy already having it can be argued by them by declaring it as Indian version, different from block 50 or MLU F-16 of PAF.
Eurofighter have definite 0% chances, mainly because of its cost.
Rafale has been already declined, grippen have the potential because PAF has also attested it during evaluation, but failed to induct in past due to financial constraints.

In my opinion so far PAF is on 90% right track. If they thought they need a western fighter in the face of Indian MRCA than F-16block50 is the winner choice.
I think J-10B (advance J-10) will eventually and soon reach to the level of Rafale, Grippen, and Typhoon. Multi role but in PAF, I suppose will be more suitable for strike roles.

Thunder will also eventually and soon develop to block 50 levels and further more.

Infect, I have analyzed the pros and cons of both buying foreign and developing local and I have come to the conclusion that more you buy foreign more you help them to develop and more you keep yourself away from being developing and more you spend on local more you help yourself to develop and more you retard the development of foreign product, which may eventually be used against you.

If Indians buy any American or European the cost of 126 may truly reach around 15b$+.
If we assume India places the order of MRCA in 2009 than it will take at least 3 years (2012) for them to get some deliveries and training. By that time I expect Dragon to develop at comparable level.
Hence Pakistan should continue on its track and keep developing local products in venture with Turkey and China.
Anyway, we have the minimum detterence in worst case, senario.
Our ROSE mirrages are equally advance as any of present Indian fighter.

You read my mind, I totally agree with you......Great Analysis

 

[Wingman]

i agree.... try to spend money wisely then spend on defence.
every year military comes out with these big budget items..... where is the money for that.
India can spend ..let them spend.They can certainly afford it.
Canada only has F-18's..... they dont go out and spend cause they dont have to.
Defence needs changes with time.......its time Pak military look at its defence differently.

Yaar CP, you live abroad and criticise on the Military Budget, at least we have to do something against any possible threats from our neighbours.
Pak military is really looking defence differently, by becoming SELF RELIANT

 

[Wingman]

QUOTE]



the best answer to indian 126 MRCA will be a squadron of EF-2000 backed up with Erieye AWACS!

I think FC-20 (J-10) should be opted instead of EF2000

 

[Arsalan]

I think FC-20 (J-10) should be opted instead of EF2000

and i bet it is like this!!

regards!

 

[Manticore]

A twin engined chinese 4.5++ is rumoured... i think it would be an hybrid of j11b and j10b....... wether they call it j10c, j13... but it might be the answer 3 squadrons of it plus j10b will maintain the balance in the region plus a deep attack capability.it might be the same plane that paf is also rumoured to unveil in 2 years

 

[Arsalan]

A twin engined chinese 4.5++ is rumoured... i think it would be an hybrid of j11b and j10b....... wether they call it j10c, j13... but it might be the answer 3 squadrons of it plus j10b will maintain the balance in the region plus a deep attack capability.it might be the same plane that paf is also rumoured to unveil in 2 years

the twin engine do not fall into PAF doctroine and also i dont see PAF inducting a new plane in such small time fframe as we already have planned JF17, FC0, F16 Block 52 and MLU and the AWACS so it do not seem to happen that PAF go for yet another new platform specially when we have the plans to move on to block 2 of JF17!!

regards!

 

[sancho]

The cost to maintain, equip and fly it would be much more reasonable than a larger aircraft such as J-10.

I read that very often here, but can you explain why? Both aircrafts are single engine and pretty much in the same class. They are using the same weapons and as it is stated in the J10 thread have some comonality in systems and also in radar. So why should the maintenance of J10 be so much higher, it can't be just the bigger engine right?

As of February 16, 2009, the CAS of IAF, ACM Fali Homi Major, was hopeful that "By 2017 we will have what we want", referring to the MMRCA competition. This tells me that he is looking beyond a 2013/14 delivery date, but I may have misinterpreted his meaning. Also, the article was titled "Last Man Standing: Patience will likely be a virtue in India's multibillion-dollar fighter duel", and on the Table of Contents it said "Participants in India's fighter competition girding for long haul, test of stamina for the $10-billion prize". All this points out that the MMRCA selection is way behind where they want it to be (winner announced by 2010), which is understandable, since nobody had initially expected such a huge contest anyway.

This article is newer:

Commercial negotiations are expected to begin once the IAF completes its evaluation some time in 2010. Under existing terms and conditions the first aircraft deliveries will commence3 only four years after a contract is signed.

domain-b.com : Flight trials for IAF's MMRCA tender set to commence

It is difficult to say whether the qualitative gap between the PAF and IAF will increase, decrease or remain the same. We must remember that F-16MLU, F-16 Block52s, FC-20 and the Erieye and ZDK-03 combination will significantly boost PAF capabilities. I, personally, expect the quantitative gap to increase, in favor of India, but still remain within Pakistan's comfort zone after the new inductions. As for quality, I can't comment on whether the gap will increase or decrease, there are just too many unknowns. I do expect India to maintain its qualitative superiority for at least a few years.

That's right, but will this boost close the gap, or is just a try to stay on the ball? F16 MLU to counter IAF BVR threat, F16 Bock 52 to counter Su 30 MKI threat, J10 to counter MMRCA, Erieye to counter Phalcon.
As I said because of the replacements of Mig 21 and 27 in the next years, the quantity gap could be reduced (not sure how many PAF fighters will be replaced), but in quality reasons I think the gap will remain or even rise, because it seems like IAF is always one step ahead. Of course 5. gen fighters might only come around 2018 - 2020, but they already are under development and PAF will need something new to be on par with them again.

Allow me to respectfully but strongly disagree. I believe the JF-17 is the perfect fighter for us to be producing. Numbers of the FC-20 will increase over time, I don't expect only 36 to be inducted. Just as the IAF is taking its own sweet time in deciding the MMRCA, the PAF is probably doing the same. Any induction in the PAF will have to be reactive, depending on the threat assessment. Give it a few years.

No problem, this should be a discussion and I only expressed my point of view and I am open for good argues.

I also think sooner or later there will be more J10s, but my point was, that J10 is pretty much in the same class as JF17, but more capable. A PAF with 250 J10 as their backbone fighter, instead of 250 JF17 would be totally different don't you think? As I said above to blain2, I don't see much cost difference between both aircrafts, but in performance there should be a clear difference!
And with them as the backbone fighter, it would be easier to add some double engine medium, or even heavy class fighters.
In fact isn't PLAAF doing just the same? As far as I know they won't have much FC 1, but numbers of FC 20 right? They will add them alongside of the heavy J11 and Su 30 MKK, so if that is the best choice for them and you are developing those fighters and techs more or less together, why wasn't it also the best choice for PAF?

 

[sancho]

In AWACS front PAF will have significant Advantage by achieveing greater Radar Coverage than IAF.With MICA meteor BVRs inducted in Block 2 it will be a force to recon in the ACs world.

Actually the IAF AWACS has the advantage in radar coverage against Erieye (450 -500 Km in all directions vs ~ 450 Km mainly to left and right side of the aircraft), it was discussed in the AWACS thread.
Mica and Meteor are 2 different missiles, Mica might be good, but has less range than SD 10, Astra, AMRAAM, or R77, so it won't be such a game changer. Also I doubt Meteor will be inducted in JF 17, it is very costly and might be only on offer for European aircrafts.

 

[Gucci Juice]

pak-fa...

prototype should fly this year or 2010.

production should begin by 2014-2015

5 years is enough to complete development especially after 2 5th gen demonstrators have already flown (Su-47) and (Mig-39 MFI).

and the contract for 3 more phalcons will be signed soon and they are a generation ahead of the current phalcons (at least that's what i read). and the y-8 or w.e. isn't very advanced compared to the eriyie.

by 2015 we are looking at

230 mki
65 mig-29 m2
50 mirage 2009
30 lca blk 1
30 lca blk 2
46 mig-29k (16 and follow on order for 30 more has been signed)
120 jaguars upgraded with new engines, radar, and avionics
20-40 mrca
5-10 pak-fa prototype a/c for testing
40 mig-27
6 phalcons (1st 3 by 2011 next 3 should arrive faster)
6 il-78
6 airbus tankers
30 il-76
100 an-32
6 c-17
6 c-130
and like 500 helicopters of all kinds (light medium and heavy)

also for SAMS

spyder
matri (small numbers)
barak
barak ng (small numbers)
aad (small numbers)
pad (small numbers)
akash

 

[Munir]

Well, I think there is zero chance hat India makes any kind of attack on Pakistan. With so many weapons and nukes on both sides it is matter of equilibrium. They can have superduper MRCA. Hell they can make LCA equal to F22. he fact remains that hey canno dominate. Not in the case of China and also not when talking about Pakistan.

While their programs sound super (latest tech and assisance from every corner) it ends like the usual testresult. Don't take me wrong, I like the Indians. But they are no threat. They cannot handle that Pakistan survives and suprises with goodies like JF17, El Khaled, Babur, Ra'ad... All hey can do is copy Brahmos or say that they have bigger size or numbers...

 

[PAFAce]

I read that very often here, but can you explain why? Both aircrafts are single engine and pretty much in the same class. They are using the same weapons and as it is stated in the J10 thread have some comonality in systems and also in radar. So why should the maintenance of J10 be so much higher, it can't be just the bigger engine right?

This article is newer:

domain-b.com : Flight trials for IAF's MMRCA tender set to commence

I don't know how reliable that link is. Also, I've quoted your very own Chief of Air Staff from an internationally reputed Aviation magazine. Therefore, forgive me if I still choose to disagree with you. I maintain, no MMRCA before 2015, or maybe late 2014. But I could be wrong.

pak-fa...

prototype should fly this year or 2010.

production should begin by 2014-2015

5 years is enough to complete development especially after 2 5th gen demonstrators have already flown (Su-47) and (Mig-39 MFI).

by 2015 we are looking at

30 lca blk 1
30 lca blk 2
20-40 mrca
5-10 pak-fa prototype a/c for testing

Lots of wishful thinking. Let me just go one-by-one:

PAK-FA/FGFA: No IAF pilot will be flying any prototypes 2017. Apart from 1 Italian pilot, no non-US/UK pilot was allowed to fly the F-35 during the design phase. The IAF will see the aircraft after their Russian counterparts, not with them. Also, Russia just does not have the capability to produce anything like the F-22 yet before 2015. They will take their time to mature their technology, it's not like they face any immediate threats. They can afford to take their own sweet time, so why won't they?
LCA: I doubt you'll have 60 LCA's in service by 2015, especially Block 2. They have so many things to take care of before then, take Block 1 to a respectable end, select an engine for Block 2 (or keep burning money and time on the Kaveri), select an AESA, integrate the new systems, test fly the prototypes, induct Initial Production Models for preliminary tests and on and on. There's just too much ont he IAF's plate to devote much time to the LCA, therefore, no operational LCA Block 2 before 2015 either, in my opinion.
MMRCA: Like I said, your very own CAS doesn't expect the IAF to have substantial numbers of the MMRCA by 2017. Maybe initial models by 2014 or 2015, but that's about it.

Well, I think there is zero chance hat India makes any kind of attack on Pakistan. With so many weapons and nukes on both sides it is matter of equilibrium. They can have superduper MRCA. Hell they can make LCA equal to F22. he fact remains that hey canno dominate. Not in the case of China and also not when talking about Pakistan.

Agreed. Neither country can afford to engage in any kind of a conventional war with the other. If they do, it'll be too short to utilize huge amounts of power. The Cold War between the two will continue, and I see no end unless India suddenly decides to heed to the Kashmiris' cries and both countries can magically agree to share water and other resources.

 

[Arsalan]

Actually the IAF AWACS has the advantage in radar coverage against Erieye (450 -500 Km in all directions vs ~ 450 Km mainly to left and right side of the aircraft), it was discussed in the AWACS thread.
Mica and Meteor are 2 different missiles, Mica might be good, but has less range than SD 10, Astra, AMRAAM, or R77, so it won't be such a game changer. Also I doubt Meteor will be inducted in JF 17, it is very costly and might be only on offer for European aircrafts.

do not misguide him dear!

it have been discussed a billion time n the thread that the erieye have full 360 degree coverage with same range on 450Km in every direction!

now please do not come up with the idea that the indina Phalcon is better because it have a range on 1000km or even more! we have discussed this issue in detail!

so brother hasnain dont get upset dude!

regards!

 

[MZUBAIR]

1st Sqd will be up this year......usually Sqd have 30 + crafts......and its announced in March that PAF will be equiped Peshawar Air base with JF-17 in the end of this year.
30+? 8 are there + 6 will be produced this year, that's 14 a squad right?

Nobody said that there will be 126 of them, but the first squad (18 in IAF) for sure and J10 are facing the same decision at the moment, cause no radar and engine is cleared.

IAF will retire around 150 Mig 21 (M/MF and Bis), but the Bisons are upgraded versions, they will serve longer and to have 100 more aircrafts or not does make a difference.

Thanxs!!!...Ur analysis is good as compare to other Indians.
J-10B radar and engine in under evaluation phase. So lets see which is best.

JF-17 radar and engine will also be changed in 2011/2012