PAF Today: Implications for India - Gp Capt B Menon

[Manticore]

The IAF has lost the qualitative edge vis-a-vis the PAF and the PLAAF, and may descend into numerical parity with the PAF for the first time in the near future because of our failure to induct new systems in time and in sufficient quantities. The IAF’s draw down will become critical by 2020 with all MiG 21s, MiG 27s and portions of the Jaguar fleet being phased out. No replacements in sufficient quantities are available as of now. While the Tejas Mk 1 LCA has technologies superior to the JF 17, the fact is that the latter has been in full operational service for some years, whereas the Tejas Mk 1 has not even been deployed and will be obsolescent soon. The Tejas Mk 2 variant is still on paper. One cannot fight a war using an aircraft which has some aspects of advanced technology incorporated but which is not combat-ready and available in very limited numbers. This mess is of our own making. Let alone a limited conflict on two fronts, we will soon lack the capabilities for a single front conflict if the situation is allowed to deteriorate further. Not just our combat fleet, but our helicopter, medium and light transport, intermediate and advanced trainer fleets, SAMs and a whole lot of other systems are obsolete and also not available in required numbers.

The disenchantment of the USA with Pakistan that began in the 1970s came to an end with the policy to counter the Soviet Union in Afghanistan…

At its birth in 1947, the Royal Pakistan Air Force (RPAF) inherited just a few Tempest fighters and Dakota transport aircraft along with some Harvard and Tiger Moth trainers. The Pakistan military in general and the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) in particular languished till May 1954 when Pakistan signed its first defence agreement with the USA. And then, in September 1954, Pakistan became a member of the South East Asian Treaty Organisation (SEATO) which was formed to contain Soviet influence in the region. Pakistan continued to be a member of SEATO till the end of 1971 and was also a member of the Central Treaty Organisation (CENTO) or the Baghdad Pact from its formation in 1955 till its dissolution in 1979.

Membership of the SEATO and CENTO provided the bonanza that the Pakistan military had fantasized about. The PAF rapidly expanded with the induction of F-86 and F-104 fighters, a radar-based Air Defence (AD) system, air-to-air missiles, B 57 bombers, C 130 transport aircraft and T 33 jet trainers. Within about seven years from 1955, the PAF grew from a collection of obsolete weaponry to a modern Air Force equipped with weapons almost equal to those of smaller Western air forces. Given the dominance of the Pakistan Army in the affairs of state from the early 1950s to date, the PAF as well as the Pakistan Navy (PN) has always played and continue to play a subservient role to the Army in both military and political fields. Military domination has been the bane of Pakistan but it has helped in rapid modernisation of the armed forces.

The main benefit that accrued to Pakistan from its SEATO membership was access to Western systems and training programmes as also participation in exercises with US, British and other NATO forces. PAF pilots were attached to the USAF and RAF flying squadrons for relatively long tenures. PAF squadrons participated in multinational exercises and two generations of personnel were trained abroad at no cost. The resultant exposure was invaluable. In contrast, the Indian military had limited exposure to outside forces and concepts and even this was confined to a few courses attended by individual officers. The Indian armed forces and the Indian Air Force (IAF) in particular, never got the chance to participate in multinational exercises till around 2004-2005 except for a brief exposure in 1963 during the Shiksha Air Defence Exercise.


The PAF went into the 1965 War with India with a balanced inventory of F-86 and F-104 fighters, B-57 bombers and C-130 transport aircraft. Replacements were available with friendly Arab states such as Jordan and countries to the West of Pakistan could provide sanctuary from IAF attacks if required. However, hopes of intervention from Western members of SEATO did not materialise.

The period between 1965 and 1971 saw the start of military ties with China and induction of equipment such as the F-6, the Chinese variant of the MiG-19 as also the French Mirage. The misadventure in East Pakistan was followed by its exit from SEATO. For the PAF and the rest of the military, the formation of Bangladesh reduced their area of responsibility. 1971 proved that the Eastern wing of Pakistan was militarily indefensible with the military resources situated in the Western wing.

The disenchantment of the USA with Pakistan that began in the 1970s came to an end with the policy to counter the Soviet Union in Afghanistan in the early 1980s. Induction of F-16 and additional Mirage fighters, upgrade of the AD network, acquisition of more helicopters and entry of Chinese A-5 fighters in 1983 and F-7 in 1988, were all supposedly to counter the Soviet threat but in reality, were India-specific. These inductions came at a time when the F-86, F-104 and B-57s were being phased out. However, sanctions to limit nuclear proliferation under the Pressler Amendment saw F-16 deliveries among other military aid items put on hold in the late 1980s. From 2007 onwards, the Chinese JF-17 inductions began. American efforts to get Pakistan onboard on their “war on terror” after 9/11 saw sanctions on supply of some systems being waived and F-16 deliveries and upgrades resumed. Induction of force multipliers such as Flight Refueling Aircraft (FRA) and Airborne Early Warning & Control (AEW&C) also began.


Present Capabilities

The organisational structure of the PAF with operational Commands on geographical lines is as under:

• Northern Air Command (NAC), Peshawar
• Central Air Command (CAC), Lahore
• Southern Air Command (SAC), Karachi
• Air Defence Command (ADC), Rawalpindi
• Air Force Strategic Command (AFSC), Islamabad: This Command is responsible for the Air Force elements of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.

The PAF has around 450 combat aircraft of four types, distributed in around 20 Squadrons. The types of aircraft will reduce to three with the phasing out of the older fighters. There are 11 operational flying bases and eight other bases. There are approximately 30 airfields from which combat aircraft could operate including forward and satellite operating bases. Because of lack of geographical depth, all PAF bases are within easy reach of IAF strike aircraft and so dispersal of their aircraft becomes vital.

Combat Aircraft

Relaxation of sanctions enabled the modernisation and augmentation of the F-16 fleet. F-16 A/B aircraft were upgraded to the F-16 AM/BM Block 15 MLU standard, mostly by Turkish Aerospace Industries, between 2010 and 2014. F-16C/D Block 50/52 aircraft were acquired between 2010 and 2012. These upgrades plus acquisition of new air-to-air missiles gave a Beyond Visual Range (BVR) and night attack capability to the force. Mirage avionics, Radar Warning Receiver (RWR) and ECM systems were upgraded under the Retrofit of Strike Element (ROSE) programme in-house. The aim was to maintain the viability of the Mirage III and V platforms till their retirement and replacement by the JF-17s, a process which has already begun. About 50+ JF-17s have been inducted. Older Chinese F-7P fighters are still in service and are also supposed to be replaced by JF-17s. Pakistan is offering the JF-17 aircraft for export. The Chinese J-10B, which has had a troubled development history, could also be inducted into the PAF. Chinese stealth fighters like the J-20 and the J-31, once in production, could be sold to Pakistan. A table listing the known fighter types in the force is shown below.



Special Mission Aircraft

 

[Manticore]

Four IL-78 Multi-Role Tanker Transport (MRTT) aircraft entered service between 2009 and 2011. Four AEW&C Erieye systems from Saab of Sweden mounted on Saab 2000 turboprop aircraft and using Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar technology were acquired and integrated with the Command and Control Ground Environment system of the PAF between 2009 and 2011. One was destroyed on the ground in a militant attack on the Kamra base in 2012. Three Dassault Falcon 20 jets in the Electronic Support Measures (ECM/ESM) role are also held in the inventory. Four Chinese Shaanxi ZDK 03 (AEW&C) aircraft based on the Y-8F 600, which is a Chinese derivative of the Russian AN 12 with AESA radars, began entering service in 2011.

Helicopters

The Pakistan Army has a few Eurocopter Fennec and IAR 330 light attack helicopters. The bulk of the attack helicopter fleet consists of Bell AH 1/FS Cobra and 1Z Viper helicopters with the more capable Chinese Z-10 entering service now. Shortage of attack helicopters has forced the military to use fast jets such as the F-16 with Precision Guided Munitions (PGMs) for counter insurgency operations. The PAF’s helicopter lift capability is somewhat limited with 40+ Mi-17s and Alouette IIIs. (Only types with significant numbers have been considered).

To increase effectiveness and limit collateral damage during counter insurgency operations, the PAF and Pakistan Army Aviation have increasingly used PGMs. The PAF has, therefore, built up a substantial inventory of air-to-surface PGMs and developed expertise in their use and along with the Army in the use of attack helicopters and fixed-wing fighters in low air threat scenarios in the mountains.


http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/pakistan-air-force-today-implications-for-india/

UAVs

A significant Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) capability is being developed with the acquisition of Chinese and locally developed or cloned platforms. The Chinese CASC CH-4 long-range 40-hour endurance platform similar to the US General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper, capable of weapon delivery, is reportedly being inducted. Having been both at the delivering and receiving ends of UAV reconnaissance, surveillance and firepower capabilities, Pakistan certainly has experience in drone operations.

Transport Fleet

The tactical and strategic transport capabilities remain modest based on the earlier C-130 variants and a few CASA 235s. However, the small size of the country somewhat reduces the disadvantages of not having a significant heavy lift capability. (Only types with significant numbers have been considered).

Air Defence System

Since the mid 1980s, the PAF has had an integrated Air Defence Ground Environment System (ADGES) with an India-centric approach. There is an independent AD Command with the tri-service AD system fully integrated. Due to lack of geographical depth, a forward defence posture is the only viable option. The doctrine is based on centralised control of all AD assets, achievement of air superiority over own air space and the battle area, area Air Defence and reliance on aircraft as the main weapon system with SAMs for inner layer protection.

Low level threats over the battlefield are countered by short range man-portable SAMs and radar-guided Anti Aircraft Artillery (AAA). Mobile Observer Units (MOUs), mobile surveillance radars such as the AN TPS 77, longer range Ground Control Interception (GCI) and surveillance radars, a Hughes Command, Control, Communications and Intelligence (C3I) ADGES integrated with a Siemens Low Level Air Control System (SILLACS) and AEW&S systems are the main components.

There is a possibility of aerostat mounted surveillance radars being deployed. Weapons include AD fighters, Crotale R 440 and SPADA 2000 SAMs, RBS 70, Stinger, Mistral and Anza short-range SAMs, and 57, 35 and 14.5 mm AD guns with Giraffe radars. There is a deficiency in longer range SAMs. Deployed ones are older types including the US RIM 66 Standard Medium Range area defence SAM and the Chinese HQ-2B which is a Russian Dvina variant. Acquisition of the Chinese HQ-18 variant of the Russian S 300 long-range SAM system is a distinct possibility.

Other Missiles

Air-to-Air: The Chinese SD-10 active radar-guided BVR missile entered Chinese service in 2007. It has a reported range of over 70 km and can be carried on the JF-17. The US AIM 120 C-5 AMRAAM BVR missile, which can be carried by the newer F-16C/D variant, has a range in excess of 105 km and has been in service with the PAF since 2010. Both these give the PAF a BVR capability that it lacked earlier. Visual range missiles include the Chinese PL 5 and 9, the US AIM 9 Sidewinder, the AIM 7 Sparrow, the French Matra 550, 530 and the Super 530D.

Air-to-Surface: The locally developed H-4 Stand-off Weapon (SOW) with infra-red guidance and a claimed range of 120 km could be a version of the South African Denel. A shorter range (60 km) H-2 version also exists. These can be carried by the JF-17 and have been in service for over ten years as per claims. Some Chinese origin Anti-Tank missiles are also held. French Exocet, US Maverick, Harpoon HARM and Shrike plus Chinese C 802 and 803 missiles are available to the PAF. The Hatf VIII cruise missile with a range of 350 km has also been in service since 2007 and is nuclear capable.

Surface-to-Surface: List of missiles available in the public domain is given below. Some of them are derived from existing Chinese or North Korean missiles. The solid-fuel missiles have faster response time. Liquid-fueled missiles cannot be stored for long in the fueled state and fueling before launch takes time. Solid-fuel missiles make suitable nuclear warhead carrier platforms due to reduced response time. Given their payload capacities and accuracies (Circular Error Probable or CEP), it becomes evident that most of them are suitable only against larger area targets and that too when armed with nuclear weapons. The ranges all make them India-specific.

Surface to Surface Missiles



Implications for India

In the 1990s, the PAF had a relatively older fleet barring the early model F-16s, no AWACS or flight refueling capability, no BVR air-to-air missiles, limited night attack and Electronic Warfare (EW) capabilities. It was definitely outmatched by the IAF in quantity and quality. Within 15 years, a major transformation has taken place. Similarly, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) was a qualitatively inferior force when compared to the IAF in the late 1980s but this also has changed in the last 15 years.

Two factors have contributed to this. The first is the modernisation efforts of the PAF and the PLAAF, that of the former aided by infusion of US and Chinese equipment. This is obviously outside the control of our country except to try and bring diplomatic pressure to limit such transfers, a method that has not been very successful. The second factor is within our control.

The IAF has lost the qualitative edge vis-a-vis the PAF and the PLAAF, and may descend into numerical parity with the PAF for the first time in the near future because of our failure to induct new systems in time and in sufficient quantities. The IAF’s draw down will become critical by 2020 with all MiG 21s, MiG 27s and portions of the Jaguar fleet being phased out. No replacements in sufficient quantities are available as of now. While the Tejas Mk 1 LCA has technologies superior to the JF 17, the fact is that the latter has been in full operational service for some years, whereas the Tejas Mk 1 has not even been deployed and will be obsolescent soon.

The Tejas Mk 2 variant is still on paper. One cannot fight a war using an aircraft which has some aspects of advanced technology incorporated but which is not combat-ready and available in very limited numbers. This mess is of our own making. Let alone a limited conflict on two fronts, we will soon lack the capabilities for a single front conflict if the situation is allowed to deteriorate further. Not just our combat fleet, but our helicopter, medium and light transport, intermediate and advanced trainer fleets, SAMs and a whole lot of other systems are obsolete and also not available in required numbers.

In the area of nuclear weapons, considering the numerical superiority enjoyed by the Indian forces, Pakistan has developed tactical nuclear weapons to counter an Indian mechanised forces thrust into Pakistan which could cut the latter in half if not halted quickly. Pakistan’s declared first use option is meant to serve as a deterrent. What it does is give control of nuclear weapons to field commanders without the degree of safeguards available to the systems under centralised control for strategic use. The increasing radicalisation of elements in the Pakistani military and a climate wherein India has been portrayed as the enemy whose destruction is essential for the safety of Pakistan, plus growing sectarian strife and religious intolerance make for a dangerous mix.

The PAF has nuclear-capable delivery platforms and most Pakistani surface-to-surface missiles are capable of nuclear weapons delivery. Irrespective of intentions, the capabilities exist and that has to be taken into account by our political and military leadership. We do not appear to have developed tactical nuclear weapons and so that option of their use is ruled out for now.

Till such time that the IAF’s combat aircraft strengths improve, effective use of existing assets by induction of more quantities of force multipliers such as Precision Guided Munitions (PGMs), air refuellers, AWACS, greater use of Surface-to-Surface Missiles and increased numbers of weaponised and other UAVs are imperative.

To utilise scarce resources better, creation of unified Theatre Commands need to be examined. Warfare no longer consists of independent actions on land, at sea, in the air, in space and in the cyber world but is an integrated activity requiring Integrated Commands.

Military commanders have a duty to insist on actions to be taken on time to improve the capabilities of forces instead of taking paths of least resistance. The political leadership and bureaucracy have to realise that the armed forces are the guarantors of a nation’s very existence and without that existence, their own importance and relevance in the scheme of things will become zero.
http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/pakistan-air-force-today-implications-for-india/
---------------------
This article indirectly stresses for the need of rafale so pakistanis should not start thumping chests. IAF is modernizing with heavy weight multirole fighters even though they are not a 1;1 replacement, its a massive enhancement of capability a fact carefully cloaked in the conclusion

 

[Sipahi]

Great Read

 

[PaklovesTurkiye]

Pakistan’s declared first use option is meant to serve as a deterrent. What it does is give control of nuclear weapons to field commanders without the degree of safeguards available to the systems under centralised control for strategic use. The increasing radicalisation of elements in the Pakistani military and a climate wherein India has been portrayed as the enemy whose destruction is essential for the safety of Pakistan, plus growing sectarian strife and religious intolerance make for a dangerous mix.

What is this? We are not that stupid that we will throw nuke just because we hate India or treat India as enemy. Radicalization, sectarian strife, intolerance ???

I don't get the purpose of this para, as how it is included under or matched with thread's title?

 

[zebra7]

Four IL-78 Multi-Role Tanker Transport (MRTT) aircraft entered service between 2009 and 2011. Four AEW&C Erieye systems from Saab of Sweden mounted on Saab 2000 turboprop aircraft and using Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar technology were acquired and integrated with the Command and Control Ground Environment system of the PAF between 2009 and 2011. One was destroyed on the ground in a militant attack on the Kamra base in 2012. Three Dassault Falcon 20 jets in the Electronic Support Measures (ECM/ESM) role are also held in the inventory. Four Chinese Shaanxi ZDK 03 (AEW&C) aircraft based on the Y-8F 600, which is a Chinese derivative of the Russian AN 12 with AESA radars, began entering service in 2011.

Helicopters

The Pakistan Army has a few Eurocopter Fennec and IAR 330 light attack helicopters. The bulk of the attack helicopter fleet consists of Bell AH 1/FS Cobra and 1Z Viper helicopters with the more capable Chinese Z-10 entering service now. Shortage of attack helicopters has forced the military to use fast jets such as the F-16 with Precision Guided Munitions (PGMs) for counter insurgency operations. The PAF’s helicopter lift capability is somewhat limited with 40+ Mi-17s and Alouette IIIs. (Only types with significant numbers have been considered).

To increase effectiveness and limit collateral damage during counter insurgency operations, the PAF and Pakistan Army Aviation have increasingly used PGMs. The PAF has, therefore, built up a substantial inventory of air-to-surface PGMs and developed expertise in their use and along with the Army in the use of attack helicopters and fixed-wing fighters in low air threat scenarios in the mountains.


http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/pakistan-air-force-today-implications-for-india/

UAVs

A significant Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) capability is being developed with the acquisition of Chinese and locally developed or cloned platforms. The Chinese CASC CH-4 long-range 40-hour endurance platform similar to the US General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper, capable of weapon delivery, is reportedly being inducted. Having been both at the delivering and receiving ends of UAV reconnaissance, surveillance and firepower capabilities, Pakistan certainly has experience in drone operations.

Transport Fleet

The tactical and strategic transport capabilities remain modest based on the earlier C-130 variants and a few CASA 235s. However, the small size of the country somewhat reduces the disadvantages of not having a significant heavy lift capability. (Only types with significant numbers have been considered).

Air Defence System

Since the mid 1980s, the PAF has had an integrated Air Defence Ground Environment System (ADGES) with an India-centric approach. There is an independent AD Command with the tri-service AD system fully integrated. Due to lack of geographical depth, a forward defence posture is the only viable option. The doctrine is based on centralised control of all AD assets, achievement of air superiority over own air space and the battle area, area Air Defence and reliance on aircraft as the main weapon system with SAMs for inner layer protection.

Low level threats over the battlefield are countered by short range man-portable SAMs and radar-guided Anti Aircraft Artillery (AAA). Mobile Observer Units (MOUs), mobile surveillance radars such as the AN TPS 77, longer range Ground Control Interception (GCI) and surveillance radars, a Hughes Command, Control, Communications and Intelligence (C3I) ADGES integrated with a Siemens Low Level Air Control System (SILLACS) and AEW&S systems are the main components.

There is a possibility of aerostat mounted surveillance radars being deployed. Weapons include AD fighters, Crotale R 440 and SPADA 2000 SAMs, RBS 70, Stinger, Mistral and Anza short-range SAMs, and 57, 35 and 14.5 mm AD guns with Giraffe radars. There is a deficiency in longer range SAMs. Deployed ones are older types including the US RIM 66 Standard Medium Range area defence SAM and the Chinese HQ-2B which is a Russian Dvina variant. Acquisition of the Chinese HQ-18 variant of the Russian S 300 long-range SAM system is a distinct possibility.

Other Missiles

Air-to-Air: The Chinese SD-10 active radar-guided BVR missile entered Chinese service in 2007. It has a reported range of over 70 km and can be carried on the JF-17. The US AIM 120 C-5 AMRAAM BVR missile, which can be carried by the newer F-16C/D variant, has a range in excess of 105 km and has been in service with the PAF since 2010. Both these give the PAF a BVR capability that it lacked earlier. Visual range missiles include the Chinese PL 5 and 9, the US AIM 9 Sidewinder, the AIM 7 Sparrow, the French Matra 550, 530 and the Super 530D.

Air-to-Surface: The locally developed H-4 Stand-off Weapon (SOW) with infra-red guidance and a claimed range of 120 km could be a version of the South African Denel. A shorter range (60 km) H-2 version also exists. These can be carried by the JF-17 and have been in service for over ten years as per claims. Some Chinese origin Anti-Tank missiles are also held. French Exocet, US Maverick, Harpoon HARM and Shrike plus Chinese C 802 and 803 missiles are available to the PAF. The Hatf VIII cruise missile with a range of 350 km has also been in service since 2007 and is nuclear capable.

Surface-to-Surface: List of missiles available in the public domain is given below. Some of them are derived from existing Chinese or North Korean missiles. The solid-fuel missiles have faster response time. Liquid-fueled missiles cannot be stored for long in the fueled state and fueling before launch takes time. Solid-fuel missiles make suitable nuclear warhead carrier platforms due to reduced response time. Given their payload capacities and accuracies (Circular Error Probable or CEP), it becomes evident that most of them are suitable only against larger area targets and that too when armed with nuclear weapons. The ranges all make them India-specific.

Surface to Surface Missiles



Implications for India

In the 1990s, the PAF had a relatively older fleet barring the early model F-16s, no AWACS or flight refueling capability, no BVR air-to-air missiles, limited night attack and Electronic Warfare (EW) capabilities. It was definitely outmatched by the IAF in quantity and quality. Within 15 years, a major transformation has taken place. Similarly, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) was a qualitatively inferior force when compared to the IAF in the late 1980s but this also has changed in the last 15 years.

Two factors have contributed to this. The first is the modernisation efforts of the PAF and the PLAAF, that of the former aided by infusion of US and Chinese equipment. This is obviously outside the control of our country except to try and bring diplomatic pressure to limit such transfers, a method that has not been very successful. The second factor is within our control.

The IAF has lost the qualitative edge vis-a-vis the PAF and the PLAAF, and may descend into numerical parity with the PAF for the first time in the near future because of our failure to induct new systems in time and in sufficient quantities. The IAF’s draw down will become critical by 2020 with all MiG 21s, MiG 27s and portions of the Jaguar fleet being phased out. No replacements in sufficient quantities are available as of now. While the Tejas Mk 1 LCA has technologies superior to the JF 17, the fact is that the latter has been in full operational service for some years, whereas the Tejas Mk 1 has not even been deployed and will be obsolescent soon.

The Tejas Mk 2 variant is still on paper. One cannot fight a war using an aircraft which has some aspects of advanced technology incorporated but which is not combat-ready and available in very limited numbers. This mess is of our own making. Let alone a limited conflict on two fronts, we will soon lack the capabilities for a single front conflict if the situation is allowed to deteriorate further. Not just our combat fleet, but our helicopter, medium and light transport, intermediate and advanced trainer fleets, SAMs and a whole lot of other systems are obsolete and also not available in required numbers.

In the area of nuclear weapons, considering the numerical superiority enjoyed by the Indian forces, Pakistan has developed tactical nuclear weapons to counter an Indian mechanised forces thrust into Pakistan which could cut the latter in half if not halted quickly. Pakistan’s declared first use option is meant to serve as a deterrent. What it does is give control of nuclear weapons to field commanders without the degree of safeguards available to the systems under centralised control for strategic use. The increasing radicalisation of elements in the Pakistani military and a climate wherein India has been portrayed as the enemy whose destruction is essential for the safety of Pakistan, plus growing sectarian strife and religious intolerance make for a dangerous mix.

The PAF has nuclear-capable delivery platforms and most Pakistani surface-to-surface missiles are capable of nuclear weapons delivery. Irrespective of intentions, the capabilities exist and that has to be taken into account by our political and military leadership. We do not appear to have developed tactical nuclear weapons and so that option of their use is ruled out for now.

Till such time that the IAF’s combat aircraft strengths improve, effective use of existing assets by induction of more quantities of force multipliers such as Precision Guided Munitions (PGMs), air refuellers, AWACS, greater use of Surface-to-Surface Missiles and increased numbers of weaponised and other UAVs are imperative.

To utilise scarce resources better, creation of unified Theatre Commands need to be examined. Warfare no longer consists of independent actions on land, at sea, in the air, in space and in the cyber world but is an integrated activity requiring Integrated Commands.

Military commanders have a duty to insist on actions to be taken on time to improve the capabilities of forces instead of taking paths of least resistance. The political leadership and bureaucracy have to realise that the armed forces are the guarantors of a nation’s very existence and without that existence, their own importance and relevance in the scheme of things will become zero.

---------------------
This article indirectly stresses for the need of rafale so pakistanis should not start thumping chests. IAF is modernizing with heavy weight multirole fighters even though they are not a 1;1 replacement, its a massive enhancement of capability a fact carefully cloaked in the conclusion

Bhaiya @Manticore This is your own article or it has any source.

1. Who says Jaguar is going to retire in 2020, -- Darin 3 upgrade, and good airframe condition, makes them usable till 2035.

2. Why J-20 is in the list, when it is not is not cleared for export, however J-31 is.

3. Why LCA MK-2, when MK-1 SOP 2018 is going to be inducted by the IAF -- 100 + 20 in number. MK-2 is actually N-LCA MK-2.

4. Why no talk about the Upgrade program of Mirrage 2000, Mig 29, Su 30 MKI, and HAL/BAe plan of Combat Hawk as Lift Cum CAS platform.

5. No Rafale factor mentioned.

 

[Abingdonboy]

The IAF has lost the qualitative edge vis-a-vis the PAF and the PLAAF

Has it?

Heavy weight-----IAF- Su-30 MKI------PAF- nil------PLA(AF)- Su-30MKK---> MKI is supreme here
Medium weight-----IAF- Rafale------PAF- F-16 Blk.52------PLA(AF)- J-10---> Rafale is supreme here
Light weight-----IAF- LCA------PAF- JF-17------PLA(AF)- nil---> negligable differences but the LCA MK.1A will have an AESA from 2018 onwards- this is pretty game-changing in itself.

AWACS ----IAF-A-50EI PHALCON-----PAF- ERIEYE/ZDK-03------PLA(AF)- KJ-2000--> PHALCON is supreme here

may descend into numerical parity with the PAF for the first time in the near future because of our failure to induct new systems in time and in sufficient quantities. The IAF’s draw down will become critical by 2020 with all MiG 21s, MiG 27s and portions of the Jaguar fleet being phased out.

This is a factor but your analysis is based on rather outdated information and does not reflect recent news (literally from the past 2 weeks). Firstly the Rafale deal is all but done with the contract for 36 off the shelf being finalised that will be delivered within 20 months so from early 2018 and the deal for 90+ follow-on units to be made in India will be finalised by March 2017 at the latest. Furthermore HAL has already begun expanding their productive capacity for the LCA- 16/year from 2018 and 25/year in the long term (from 2020).

Lastly, the Jaguar DARIN IIIs will be re-engined with the H125 and will be in service until 2030 when the AMCA comes into service.

@PARIKRAMA @MilSpec @nair @anant_s @ni8mare

 

[PDF]

With PLAAF has the upper hand here. I have doubts regarding PAF vis a vis IAF. We might he able to defend ourselves, but we lack the capability to go on offensive mode.

 

[Zarvan]

Four IL-78 Multi-Role Tanker Transport (MRTT) aircraft entered service between 2009 and 2011. Four AEW&C Erieye systems from Saab of Sweden mounted on Saab 2000 turboprop aircraft and using Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar technology were acquired and integrated with the Command and Control Ground Environment system of the PAF between 2009 and 2011. One was destroyed on the ground in a militant attack on the Kamra base in 2012. Three Dassault Falcon 20 jets in the Electronic Support Measures (ECM/ESM) role are also held in the inventory. Four Chinese Shaanxi ZDK 03 (AEW&C) aircraft based on the Y-8F 600, which is a Chinese derivative of the Russian AN 12 with AESA radars, began entering service in 2011.

Helicopters

The Pakistan Army has a few Eurocopter Fennec and IAR 330 light attack helicopters. The bulk of the attack helicopter fleet consists of Bell AH 1/FS Cobra and 1Z Viper helicopters with the more capable Chinese Z-10 entering service now. Shortage of attack helicopters has forced the military to use fast jets such as the F-16 with Precision Guided Munitions (PGMs) for counter insurgency operations. The PAF’s helicopter lift capability is somewhat limited with 40+ Mi-17s and Alouette IIIs. (Only types with significant numbers have been considered).

To increase effectiveness and limit collateral damage during counter insurgency operations, the PAF and Pakistan Army Aviation have increasingly used PGMs. The PAF has, therefore, built up a substantial inventory of air-to-surface PGMs and developed expertise in their use and along with the Army in the use of attack helicopters and fixed-wing fighters in low air threat scenarios in the mountains.


http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/pakistan-air-force-today-implications-for-india/

UAVs

A significant Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) capability is being developed with the acquisition of Chinese and locally developed or cloned platforms. The Chinese CASC CH-4 long-range 40-hour endurance platform similar to the US General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper, capable of weapon delivery, is reportedly being inducted. Having been both at the delivering and receiving ends of UAV reconnaissance, surveillance and firepower capabilities, Pakistan certainly has experience in drone operations.

Transport Fleet

The tactical and strategic transport capabilities remain modest based on the earlier C-130 variants and a few CASA 235s. However, the small size of the country somewhat reduces the disadvantages of not having a significant heavy lift capability. (Only types with significant numbers have been considered).

Air Defence System

Since the mid 1980s, the PAF has had an integrated Air Defence Ground Environment System (ADGES) with an India-centric approach. There is an independent AD Command with the tri-service AD system fully integrated. Due to lack of geographical depth, a forward defence posture is the only viable option. The doctrine is based on centralised control of all AD assets, achievement of air superiority over own air space and the battle area, area Air Defence and reliance on aircraft as the main weapon system with SAMs for inner layer protection.

Low level threats over the battlefield are countered by short range man-portable SAMs and radar-guided Anti Aircraft Artillery (AAA). Mobile Observer Units (MOUs), mobile surveillance radars such as the AN TPS 77, longer range Ground Control Interception (GCI) and surveillance radars, a Hughes Command, Control, Communications and Intelligence (C3I) ADGES integrated with a Siemens Low Level Air Control System (SILLACS) and AEW&S systems are the main components.

There is a possibility of aerostat mounted surveillance radars being deployed. Weapons include AD fighters, Crotale R 440 and SPADA 2000 SAMs, RBS 70, Stinger, Mistral and Anza short-range SAMs, and 57, 35 and 14.5 mm AD guns with Giraffe radars. There is a deficiency in longer range SAMs. Deployed ones are older types including the US RIM 66 Standard Medium Range area defence SAM and the Chinese HQ-2B which is a Russian Dvina variant. Acquisition of the Chinese HQ-18 variant of the Russian S 300 long-range SAM system is a distinct possibility.

Other Missiles

Air-to-Air: The Chinese SD-10 active radar-guided BVR missile entered Chinese service in 2007. It has a reported range of over 70 km and can be carried on the JF-17. The US AIM 120 C-5 AMRAAM BVR missile, which can be carried by the newer F-16C/D variant, has a range in excess of 105 km and has been in service with the PAF since 2010. Both these give the PAF a BVR capability that it lacked earlier. Visual range missiles include the Chinese PL 5 and 9, the US AIM 9 Sidewinder, the AIM 7 Sparrow, the French Matra 550, 530 and the Super 530D.

Air-to-Surface: The locally developed H-4 Stand-off Weapon (SOW) with infra-red guidance and a claimed range of 120 km could be a version of the South African Denel. A shorter range (60 km) H-2 version also exists. These can be carried by the JF-17 and have been in service for over ten years as per claims. Some Chinese origin Anti-Tank missiles are also held. French Exocet, US Maverick, Harpoon HARM and Shrike plus Chinese C 802 and 803 missiles are available to the PAF. The Hatf VIII cruise missile with a range of 350 km has also been in service since 2007 and is nuclear capable.

Surface-to-Surface: List of missiles available in the public domain is given below. Some of them are derived from existing Chinese or North Korean missiles. The solid-fuel missiles have faster response time. Liquid-fueled missiles cannot be stored for long in the fueled state and fueling before launch takes time. Solid-fuel missiles make suitable nuclear warhead carrier platforms due to reduced response time. Given their payload capacities and accuracies (Circular Error Probable or CEP), it becomes evident that most of them are suitable only against larger area targets and that too when armed with nuclear weapons. The ranges all make them India-specific.

Surface to Surface Missiles



Implications for India

In the 1990s, the PAF had a relatively older fleet barring the early model F-16s, no AWACS or flight refueling capability, no BVR air-to-air missiles, limited night attack and Electronic Warfare (EW) capabilities. It was definitely outmatched by the IAF in quantity and quality. Within 15 years, a major transformation has taken place. Similarly, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) was a qualitatively inferior force when compared to the IAF in the late 1980s but this also has changed in the last 15 years.

Two factors have contributed to this. The first is the modernisation efforts of the PAF and the PLAAF, that of the former aided by infusion of US and Chinese equipment. This is obviously outside the control of our country except to try and bring diplomatic pressure to limit such transfers, a method that has not been very successful. The second factor is within our control.

The IAF has lost the qualitative edge vis-a-vis the PAF and the PLAAF, and may descend into numerical parity with the PAF for the first time in the near future because of our failure to induct new systems in time and in sufficient quantities. The IAF’s draw down will become critical by 2020 with all MiG 21s, MiG 27s and portions of the Jaguar fleet being phased out. No replacements in sufficient quantities are available as of now. While the Tejas Mk 1 LCA has technologies superior to the JF 17, the fact is that the latter has been in full operational service for some years, whereas the Tejas Mk 1 has not even been deployed and will be obsolescent soon.

The Tejas Mk 2 variant is still on paper. One cannot fight a war using an aircraft which has some aspects of advanced technology incorporated but which is not combat-ready and available in very limited numbers. This mess is of our own making. Let alone a limited conflict on two fronts, we will soon lack the capabilities for a single front conflict if the situation is allowed to deteriorate further. Not just our combat fleet, but our helicopter, medium and light transport, intermediate and advanced trainer fleets, SAMs and a whole lot of other systems are obsolete and also not available in required numbers.

In the area of nuclear weapons, considering the numerical superiority enjoyed by the Indian forces, Pakistan has developed tactical nuclear weapons to counter an Indian mechanised forces thrust into Pakistan which could cut the latter in half if not halted quickly. Pakistan’s declared first use option is meant to serve as a deterrent. What it does is give control of nuclear weapons to field commanders without the degree of safeguards available to the systems under centralised control for strategic use. The increasing radicalisation of elements in the Pakistani military and a climate wherein India has been portrayed as the enemy whose destruction is essential for the safety of Pakistan, plus growing sectarian strife and religious intolerance make for a dangerous mix.

The PAF has nuclear-capable delivery platforms and most Pakistani surface-to-surface missiles are capable of nuclear weapons delivery. Irrespective of intentions, the capabilities exist and that has to be taken into account by our political and military leadership. We do not appear to have developed tactical nuclear weapons and so that option of their use is ruled out for now.

Till such time that the IAF’s combat aircraft strengths improve, effective use of existing assets by induction of more quantities of force multipliers such as Precision Guided Munitions (PGMs), air refuellers, AWACS, greater use of Surface-to-Surface Missiles and increased numbers of weaponised and other UAVs are imperative.

To utilise scarce resources better, creation of unified Theatre Commands need to be examined. Warfare no longer consists of independent actions on land, at sea, in the air, in space and in the cyber world but is an integrated activity requiring Integrated Commands.

Military commanders have a duty to insist on actions to be taken on time to improve the capabilities of forces instead of taking paths of least resistance. The political leadership and bureaucracy have to realise that the armed forces are the guarantors of a nation’s very existence and without that existence, their own importance and relevance in the scheme of things will become zero.

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This article indirectly stresses for the need of rafale so pakistanis should not start thumping chests. IAF is modernizing with heavy weight multirole fighters even though they are not a 1;1 replacement, its a massive enhancement of capability a fact carefully cloaked in the conclusion

Pakistan should induct J-10 C and also induct either Euro Fighter or SU-35 and JF-17 BLOCK III should come fast. As for Air Defence systems we have lot of them and of different kinds and range.

 

[Moon]

Has it?

Heavy weight-----IAF- Su-30 MKI------PAF- nil------PLA(AF)- Su-30MKK---> MKI is supreme here
Medium weight-----IAF- Rafale------PAF- F-16 Blk.52------PLA(AF)- J-10---> Rafale is supreme here
Light weight-----IAF- LCA------PAF- JF-17------PLA(AF)- nil---> negligable differences but the LCA MK.1A will have an AESA from 2018 onwards- this is pretty game-changing in itself.

AWACS ----IAF-A-50EI PHALCON-----PAF- ERIEYE/ZDK-03------PLA(AF)- KJ-2000--> PHALCON is supreme here



This is a factor but you analysis is based on rather outdated information and does not reflect recent news (literally from the past 2 weeks). Firstly the Rafale deal is all but done with the contract for 36 off the shelf being finalised that will be delivered within 20 months so from early 2018 and the deal for 90+ follow-on units to be made in India will be finalised by March 2017 at the latest. Furthermore HAL has already begun expanding their productive capacity for the LCA- 16/year from 2018 and 25/year in the long term (from 2020).

Lastly, the Jaguar DARIN IIIs will be re-engined with the H125 and will be in service until 2030 when the AMCA comes into service.

@PARIKRAMA @MilSpec @nair @anant_s @ni8mare

Hi,
The post is for PAF today, India has no Rafale, Tejas is yet to be properly integrated, and gain proper acceptance in the IAF for it to be ever taken seriously.
As for the AWACs, the numbers pitted against India, are more than enough to tilt in the favor of PAF and PLA-AF. Not tonly mention Pakistan's Erieye boasts detection capability of nearly 400km in dense radar interference.
I'd like to add more later, I'm busy right.

 

[Abingdonboy]

The post is for PAF today, India has no Rafale, Tejas is yet to be properly integrated, a

I take your point but all of what I have said is in the near future, today will soon be yesterday, time doesn't stand still things are always influx for all sides. In 20-21 months the IAF will have Rafales, in 18 months the IAF will have 1-2 SQNs of LCA Mk.1s, in 30 months it will start to get Mk.1As with AESA radars.

You'll note that I haven't talked about the FGFA or AMCA which are, agreed, a long away off.

As for the AWACs, the numbers pitted against India, are more than enough to tilt in the favor of PAF and PLA-AF. Not tonly mention Pakistan's Erieye boasts detection capability of nearly 400km in dense radar interference.
I'd like to add more later, I'm busy right.

I was responding to the remark that India had lost its "qualitative edge vis-a-vis the PAF and the PLAAF".

 

[Hellfire]

As for the AWACs, the numbers pitted against India, are more than enough to tilt in the favor of PAF and PLA-AF. Not tonly mention Pakistan's Erieye boasts detection capability of nearly 400km in dense radar interference.
I'd like to add more later, I'm busy right.

For Bold Part: How do the numbers tilt favor in PAF and PLAAF favor? Are you envisaging a dual front combat? Then it will be just a MAYBE. You really don't understand the thing about the two front war - do you? The material help from West will come immediately, without questions. Why, and just why do you think we are slumbering along without undue worries of China coming to rescue of Pakistan? Because even China, my friend, is not that stupid! It will give you all the lip service you need, but when push comes to a shove, you wont find friends around you. That's a hard fact that you have seen in 1971 yet don't want to learn.

Next about the range, what makes you think that a 400 Km range gives you an advantage against a robust C3I2 capability opposing you in terms of surveillance platforms across spectrum, be they space based or atmosphere based or SIGINT?

Underlined part: I like that ...... 'I'm busy right' as if someone is prodding you to write, I get your sentiment man, its fun to write your views .... lol hope it is worthwhile and interesting .. not boring old job mate !!! Cheers
regards

 

[ACE OF THE AIR]

The capabilities that have been mentioned seem to be old. There are many things that are missing...Here are a few reports that could explain the capabilities.

1 )

2)

3)

4)

5)

6)

 

[CHACHA"G"]

Extremely Good read Sir
Looking at your chart in first post I m horrified and even more terrified if we compere PAF with IAF,
Its look like we Pakistani (airforce) fix the match with India (airforce) let them have very big and not catch able lead in numbers and in tech (in shape of Gen of the birds).
Sir in a war one should need latest as possible weapon and good training and then comes the faith , As its been told to US Be prepared your horses .. means be ready have latest tech , weapon , and numbers then have faith u will win.
Dear Pakistanis
As Mr Zarven said in his post and some other members also said we need one more new bird single engine with JF17 to shear the burden and give the numbers to PAF
I strongly Richmond J10C(p) as it is Delta Wing and with Upgrades to our needs it will be a best 4++ gen single engine bird , This Bird can replace Mirages of Pakistan Easy to avail and build in Pakistan under TOT.
J10C(p) can provide much much needed air sport to Pakistan army in battlefields , it can preform extremely good bombing missions and this advanced J10C(p) bird allows Paf to use F16 and JF17 to counter Indian birds in air .

As J10C(p) can do miracles in PAF but it also have some short comings dew to delta wings (there are short comings in almost all birds) and its not a Heavy Bird so please don't put this bird with any heavy bird,
Instead of having 250 to 300 odd JF17 I say Y not have 150 J10C(p) that can replace all mirages this can go in production till 2020 and 100JF17 Block3 and 150 JF17 NG (block 4)to replace all F7s and A5s and too have numbers.ea

And for 4.5++ double engine heavy , I wish we can buy Typhoon or SU35 but it wont look like, dream not coming true because of economy (price of birds to high) and political reasons , Best way is Get J10 is will release some pressure form PAF and then start working on our own double engine heavy we can take help from china (J11, and so on)

AS for today I don't think IAF need to worry about PAF , After all those heavies and latest tech and numbers if they are worried then A Big Shame for them lol

Thanks for reading and sorry for mistake

 

[Perpendicular]

Well, India must think again instead of spending billions of dollars on Sukhois, Rafales, PAKFA's, LCA's and what not. Instead buy few jf17's with "TOT" to take care of every problem.

On topic:
Pakistani military should start finding answers to IN soon, cause they are making an airforce of their own.

 

[salarsikander]

I take your point but all of what I have said is in the near future, today will soon be yesterday, time doesn't stand still things are always influx for all sides. In 20-21 months the IAF will have Rafales, in 18 months the IAF will have 1-2 SQNs of LCA Mk.1s, in 30 months it will start to get Mk.1As with AESA radars.

You'll note that I haven't talked about the FGFA or AMCA which are, agreed, a long away off.

Hi,

I will say this again, I admire your enthusiasm. I have been following your post on Rafael drama for the past two years now and honestly speaking (bluntly) getting sick and tired of it. Talk when you have Rafel and FGFA or The AMCA( which is still in drawing board) if you go at war with China where do you STAND now