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PAF Today: Implications for India - Gp Capt B Menon

All on paper. SU30 MKI is not of much use, it it a hanger queen with 50% operational availability. India could have bought a brand new F16 blk 52 for the money it spend on upgrading each Mirage, so that is already like a self inflicted kill.
The "MKI hanger queen" talk is getting pretty tiresome. By the end of 2015 it had 65% availability, by the end of 2016 it will ahve 75% availability. Even IF (which it isn't) it was only 50%- that would still be >130 MKIs able to fight at any one time.
 
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The "MKI hanger queen" talk is getting pretty tiresome. By the end of 2015 it had 65% availability, by the end of 2016 it will ahve 75% availability. Even IF (which it isn't) it was only 50%- that would still be >130 MKIs able to fight at any one time.
It isnt tiresome, its an operational disability. Until the CAG report comes again, Ill take that 75% with a pinch of salt.
 
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It isnt tiresome, its an operational disability. Until the CAG report comes again, Ill take that 75% with a pinch of salt.

Sir, with due respect, I would like to know the F-16 availability in PAF with reliable source.

Thanks in advance.
 
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Sir, with due respect, I would like to know the F-16 availability in PAF with reliable source.

Thanks in advance.
There is no report. But its better than the early 90's where sanctions had most kept on reserve. One can take a clue from a wartime deployment study in the 90's based on actual PAF input. The availability assumes an initial start with 10 aircraft which then eat into spares. The result is that availability averages around 72% for the first week or so before dropping drastically. This is based on 90's level spares stocks which was conveyed to those conducting the study. Today, we have a massive dump of spares available for the F-16.

http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a229619.pdf
@Quwa have a look at this for future reference elsewhere

Since there are plenty of spares and reserves available, Ill stick to the average availability that any average F-16 operator has of around 75%-80%.
 
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Four IL-78 Multi-Role Tanker Transport (MRTT) aircraft entered service between 2009 and 2011. Four AEW&C Erieye systems from Saab of Sweden mounted on Saab 2000 turboprop aircraft and using Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar technology were acquired and integrated with the Command and Control Ground Environment system of the PAF between 2009 and 2011. One was destroyed on the ground in a militant attack on the Kamra base in 2012. Three Dassault Falcon 20 jets in the Electronic Support Measures (ECM/ESM) role are also held in the inventory. Four Chinese Shaanxi ZDK 03 (AEW&C) aircraft based on the Y-8F 600, which is a Chinese derivative of the Russian AN 12 with AESA radars, began entering service in 2011.

Helicopters

The Pakistan Army has a few Eurocopter Fennec and IAR 330 light attack helicopters. The bulk of the attack helicopter fleet consists of Bell AH 1/FS Cobra and 1Z Viper helicopters with the more capable Chinese Z-10 entering service now. Shortage of attack helicopters has forced the military to use fast jets such as the F-16 with Precision Guided Munitions (PGMs) for counter insurgency operations. The PAF’s helicopter lift capability is somewhat limited with 40+ Mi-17s and Alouette IIIs. (Only types with significant numbers have been considered).

To increase effectiveness and limit collateral damage during counter insurgency operations, the PAF and Pakistan Army Aviation have increasingly used PGMs. The PAF has, therefore, built up a substantial inventory of air-to-surface PGMs and developed expertise in their use and along with the Army in the use of attack helicopters and fixed-wing fighters in low air threat scenarios in the mountains.


http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/pakistan-air-force-today-implications-for-india/

UAVs

A significant Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) capability is being developed with the acquisition of Chinese and locally developed or cloned platforms. The Chinese CASC CH-4 long-range 40-hour endurance platform similar to the US General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper, capable of weapon delivery, is reportedly being inducted. Having been both at the delivering and receiving ends of UAV reconnaissance, surveillance and firepower capabilities, Pakistan certainly has experience in drone operations.

Transport Fleet

The tactical and strategic transport capabilities remain modest based on the earlier C-130 variants and a few CASA 235s. However, the small size of the country somewhat reduces the disadvantages of not having a significant heavy lift capability. (Only types with significant numbers have been considered).

Air Defence System

Since the mid 1980s, the PAF has had an integrated Air Defence Ground Environment System (ADGES) with an India-centric approach. There is an independent AD Command with the tri-service AD system fully integrated. Due to lack of geographical depth, a forward defence posture is the only viable option. The doctrine is based on centralised control of all AD assets, achievement of air superiority over own air space and the battle area, area Air Defence and reliance on aircraft as the main weapon system with SAMs for inner layer protection.

Low level threats over the battlefield are countered by short range man-portable SAMs and radar-guided Anti Aircraft Artillery (AAA). Mobile Observer Units (MOUs), mobile surveillance radars such as the AN TPS 77, longer range Ground Control Interception (GCI) and surveillance radars, a Hughes Command, Control, Communications and Intelligence (C3I) ADGES integrated with a Siemens Low Level Air Control System (SILLACS) and AEW&S systems are the main components.

There is a possibility of aerostat mounted surveillance radars being deployed. Weapons include AD fighters, Crotale R 440 and SPADA 2000 SAMs, RBS 70, Stinger, Mistral and Anza short-range SAMs, and 57, 35 and 14.5 mm AD guns with Giraffe radars. There is a deficiency in longer range SAMs. Deployed ones are older types including the US RIM 66 Standard Medium Range area defence SAM and the Chinese HQ-2B which is a Russian Dvina variant. Acquisition of the Chinese HQ-18 variant of the Russian S 300 long-range SAM system is a distinct possibility.

Other Missiles

Air-to-Air: The Chinese SD-10 active radar-guided BVR missile entered Chinese service in 2007. It has a reported range of over 70 km and can be carried on the JF-17. The US AIM 120 C-5 AMRAAM BVR missile, which can be carried by the newer F-16C/D variant, has a range in excess of 105 km and has been in service with the PAF since 2010. Both these give the PAF a BVR capability that it lacked earlier. Visual range missiles include the Chinese PL 5 and 9, the US AIM 9 Sidewinder, the AIM 7 Sparrow, the French Matra 550, 530 and the Super 530D.

Air-to-Surface: The locally developed H-4 Stand-off Weapon (SOW) with infra-red guidance and a claimed range of 120 km could be a version of the South African Denel. A shorter range (60 km) H-2 version also exists. These can be carried by the JF-17 and have been in service for over ten years as per claims. Some Chinese origin Anti-Tank missiles are also held. French Exocet, US Maverick, Harpoon HARM and Shrike plus Chinese C 802 and 803 missiles are available to the PAF. The Hatf VIII cruise missile with a range of 350 km has also been in service since 2007 and is nuclear capable.

Surface-to-Surface: List of missiles available in the public domain is given below. Some of them are derived from existing Chinese or North Korean missiles. The solid-fuel missiles have faster response time. Liquid-fueled missiles cannot be stored for long in the fueled state and fueling before launch takes time. Solid-fuel missiles make suitable nuclear warhead carrier platforms due to reduced response time. Given their payload capacities and accuracies (Circular Error Probable or CEP), it becomes evident that most of them are suitable only against larger area targets and that too when armed with nuclear weapons. The ranges all make them India-specific.

Surface to Surface Missiles



Implications for India

In the 1990s, the PAF had a relatively older fleet barring the early model F-16s, no AWACS or flight refueling capability, no BVR air-to-air missiles, limited night attack and Electronic Warfare (EW) capabilities. It was definitely outmatched by the IAF in quantity and quality. Within 15 years, a major transformation has taken place. Similarly, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) was a qualitatively inferior force when compared to the IAF in the late 1980s but this also has changed in the last 15 years.

Two factors have contributed to this. The first is the modernisation efforts of the PAF and the PLAAF, that of the former aided by infusion of US and Chinese equipment. This is obviously outside the control of our country except to try and bring diplomatic pressure to limit such transfers, a method that has not been very successful. The second factor is within our control.

The IAF has lost the qualitative edge vis-a-vis the PAF and the PLAAF, and may descend into numerical parity with the PAF for the first time in the near future because of our failure to induct new systems in time and in sufficient quantities. The IAF’s draw down will become critical by 2020 with all MiG 21s, MiG 27s and portions of the Jaguar fleet being phased out. No replacements in sufficient quantities are available as of now. While the Tejas Mk 1 LCA has technologies superior to the JF 17, the fact is that the latter has been in full operational service for some years, whereas the Tejas Mk 1 has not even been deployed and will be obsolescent soon.

The Tejas Mk 2 variant is still on paper. One cannot fight a war using an aircraft which has some aspects of advanced technology incorporated but which is not combat-ready and available in very limited numbers. This mess is of our own making. Let alone a limited conflict on two fronts, we will soon lack the capabilities for a single front conflict if the situation is allowed to deteriorate further. Not just our combat fleet, but our helicopter, medium and light transport, intermediate and advanced trainer fleets, SAMs and a whole lot of other systems are obsolete and also not available in required numbers.

In the area of nuclear weapons, considering the numerical superiority enjoyed by the Indian forces, Pakistan has developed tactical nuclear weapons to counter an Indian mechanised forces thrust into Pakistan which could cut the latter in half if not halted quickly. Pakistan’s declared first use option is meant to serve as a deterrent. What it does is give control of nuclear weapons to field commanders without the degree of safeguards available to the systems under centralised control for strategic use. The increasing radicalisation of elements in the Pakistani military and a climate wherein India has been portrayed as the enemy whose destruction is essential for the safety of Pakistan, plus growing sectarian strife and religious intolerance make for a dangerous mix.

The PAF has nuclear-capable delivery platforms and most Pakistani surface-to-surface missiles are capable of nuclear weapons delivery. Irrespective of intentions, the capabilities exist and that has to be taken into account by our political and military leadership. We do not appear to have developed tactical nuclear weapons and so that option of their use is ruled out for now.

Till such time that the IAF’s combat aircraft strengths improve, effective use of existing assets by induction of more quantities of force multipliers such as Precision Guided Munitions (PGMs), air refuellers, AWACS, greater use of Surface-to-Surface Missiles and increased numbers of weaponised and other UAVs are imperative.

To utilise scarce resources better, creation of unified Theatre Commands need to be examined. Warfare no longer consists of independent actions on land, at sea, in the air, in space and in the cyber world but is an integrated activity requiring Integrated Commands.

Military commanders have a duty to insist on actions to be taken on time to improve the capabilities of forces instead of taking paths of least resistance. The political leadership and bureaucracy have to realise that the armed forces are the guarantors of a nation’s very existence and without that existence, their own importance and relevance in the scheme of things will become zero.
http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/pakistan-air-force-today-implications-for-india/
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This article indirectly stresses for the need of rafale so pakistanis should not start thumping chests. IAF is modernizing with heavy weight multirole fighters even though they are not a 1;1 replacement, its a massive enhancement of capability a fact carefully cloaked in the conclusion

A very nice article and great read, thanks.

I think over all it is correct in its assertions but is a bit on the alarmist side. This may have to do with psychological mind-set IAF senior leadership has ended up with. They are too used to milking there people by terrifying them from external threats like PAF. Tenures at higher levels are too short and you need to milk fast to be able to get something under the table.

But I wanted to share a sort of tidbits I knew about the days PAF had faced and where we are and where, hopefully, we'll be in few years.

In early 90s, one of my very dear friend, who being a bit bulky I used to joke with that he will end up on an F6 unless he cuts down his tummy, by fate actually ended up on an F6. Those times in early 90s were tough times, all F-16s were almost grounded and we had F6s and few other types to contend with while Indians had pretty decent fast machines to throw at us. F6 was very manoeuvrable at slow speeds but was slow and practically you had only Guns left to use. On it you could not dare getting in a fast turning fight at middle or higher altitudes with a faster jet and if found the other guy can just run away with ease so practically you were left with the option of sneaking upon the enemy. In dire straits we were, training was extremely hard and my friend used to actually dream about such sorties (I think many did). Flying very low, following directional ques from GC, he will successfully end up avoiding the other guys radar and will end up right below him, pushing up accelerating, quick stick and quick peddle to create a net of bullets. Such dreams were his best hope and his 'nightmare' if net thingy did not end up working. On strike missions what we had, a map in the lap, to work out where we ere and where the hell should we be heading, some time guys will lose bearing and needed GC ques to even find out where the hell is home base. In those days, unless an indian jaguar pilot was lazy and did not fly low and did not end up getting spotted by a spotter he could practically roam around every where, we aught have seen him when he was preparing for a bomb run. Those were the days.

Now fast forward to where we are, almost all jets have some kind of a radar and a sizeable number of F-16s and JF-17s have very decent radars, backed up by AWACs and good ground radars and all networked. Excellent RWRs to really sneak on your enemy, before we needed GCs help and ques to actually try finding where the enemy is. Now he turns on his radar and you have a fixed position in air to try sneaking upon him. Very fast, highly manoeuvrable and some very energy efficient jets to give enemy nightmares. F-16s, JF-17s and even old Mirages capable of BVR combat. Very good navigation and mapping info right in front of you on screens while flying on missions. Now if a jaguar pilot comes in our space, he will find it very hard to not get detected and once he is, he can neither run nor fight. IAF will need to spare a lot of its decent fighters just to protect its strike aircraft and attritions will be high or, most probably, those jaguars will keep sitting in there hangers laying eggs in so much free time. This may be the reason for inducting Rafale. But even than IAF practically will have to send in its top-line fighters to do bomber duties and this will result in attritions and more stress on their continued availability during war.
Now in future if all inductions go as planned than we may end up in a position to fight from strength and be more offensive than defensive in operations.
 
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A very nice article and great read, thanks.

I think over all it is correct in its assertions but is a bit on the alarmist side. This may have to do with psychological mind-set IAF senior leadership has ended up with. They are too used to milking there people by terrifying them from external threats like PAF. Tenures at higher levels are too short and you need to milk fast to be able to get something under the table.

But I wanted to share a sort of tidbits I knew about the days PAF had faced and where we are and where, hopefully, we'll be in few years.

In early 90s, one of my very dear friend, who being a bit bulky I used to joke with that he will end up on an F6 unless he cuts down his tummy, by fate actually ended up on an F6. Those times in early 90s were tough times, all F-16s were almost grounded and we had F6s and few other types to contend with while Indians had pretty decent fast machines to throw at us. F6 was very manoeuvrable at slow speeds but was slow and practically you had only Guns left to use. On it you could not dare getting in a fast turning fight at middle or higher altitudes with a faster jet and if found the other guy can just run away with ease so practically you were left with the option of sneaking upon the enemy. In dire straits we were, training was extremely hard and my friend used to actually dream about such sorties (I think many did). Flying very low, following directional ques from GC, he will successfully end up avoiding the other guys radar and will end up right below him, pushing up accelerating, quick stick and quick peddle to create a net of bullets. Such dreams were his best hope and his 'nightmare' if net thingy did not end up working. On strike missions what we had, a map in the lap, to work out where we ere and where the hell should we be heading, some time guys will lose bearing and needed GC ques to even find out where the hell is home base. In those days, unless an indian jaguar pilot was lazy and did not fly low and did not end up getting spotted by a spotter he could practically roam around every where, we aught have seen him when he was preparing for a bomb run. Those were the days.

Now fast forward to where we are, almost all jets have some kind of a radar and a sizeable number of F-16s and JF-17s have very decent radars, backed up by AWACs and good ground radars and all networked. Excellent RWRs to really sneak on your enemy, before we needed GCs help and ques to actually try finding where the enemy is. Now he turns on his radar and you have a fixed position in air to try sneaking upon him. Very fast, highly manoeuvrable and some very energy efficient jets to give enemy nightmares. F-16s, JF-17s and even old Mirages capable of BVR combat. Very good navigation and mapping info right in front of you on screens while flying on missions. Now if a jaguar pilot comes in our space, he will find it very hard to not get detected and once he is, he can neither run nor fight. IAF will need to spare a lot of its decent fighters just to protect its strike aircraft and attritions will be high or, most probably, those jaguars will keep sitting in there hangers laying eggs in so much free time. This may be the reason for inducting Rafale. But even than IAF practically will have to send in its top-line fighters to do bomber duties and this will result in attritions and more stress on their continued availability during war.
Now in future if all inductions go as planned than we may end up in a position to fight from strength and be more offensive than defensive in operations.

Thanks for sharing some inside info. PAF must have come a long way and inshaAllah will go a long way....

Not in agreement with the article above. Everything the PAF now has is through hard work, indigenisation, professionalism and China. We are very limited in what we have. Unlike india who has near unlimited funds and is free to purchase the world's latest and best fighter jets from Russia and the west, Pakistan can only do that from one country, China. And at this precise moment in time, Chinese fighter jets are nearing but not at the same level of western and Russian fighters. A few token F-16s from america is not going to add much to the PAF.

What the author doesn't mention much is that india is now in the process of purchasing huge numbers of the latest advanced fighter jets from france and Russia. This will once again massively tip the balance in favour of the iaf vis-a-vis the PAF.

Until the J-20 and J-31 don't go online and Pakistan doesn't receive them, than iaf will continue to have a massive edge over the PAF.

I sincerely look forward to the day when TFX is operational with full ownership to Turkey, so that PAF has a second source..
 
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PAF is examining a number of options including the J-31. I can only make a guesstimate at this stage because the final decision is about two years away. I can confirm that PAF has indeed test flown the J-31 prototype (only foreign country to have done so), so going by figures we are looking at 2021-22 induction if this purchase goes ahead.

What about the Turkish 5th generation fighter the Tai TFX, is there a possibility of the future stealth fighter to be a customized make to fit the needs of Pakistan like how we have done with many other platforms over the years, is it even possible?.
 
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This article is “Hogwash. Following in the footsteps of Pentagon during the Cold War; when Soviet military strength was grossly exaggerated to make Congress approve larger & larger funds for the US military; Group Capt. Menon is simply trying to frighten Indian politicians to fund Indian military expansion.

Per the Military Balance 2016; current Indian active military strength stands at:

Army: 14 Corps, 3 Armoured Divs, 6 Mechanised Divs, 28 Infantry Divs, 3 Artillery Divs, 8 Ind Armrd Brigades, 6 Ind Mech. Brigades, 10 Ind. Infantry Brigades (one paras) & 8 AD brigades. Total active strength 1.15-million with 2974 tanks, 1455 AIFV & 9.682 pieces of artillery.

Air Force: 37 Front line Sqdrns with 881 combat aircrafts. Total active strength 127,200.

Navy: 14 Submarines (one nuclear) 2 Aircraft Carriers, 13 Destroyers, 13 Frigates, 24 Corvettes, &1 combat capable aircrafts with total strength at 58, 300. Total men under arm 1.346 million.

As if this was not enough; it is said that Modi has already earmarked $60-billion for Defence purchases.

http://www.rediff.com/news/column/c...-buying-for-its-defence-services/20160209.htm

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...cond-biggest-u-s-weapons-buyer-as-china-rises

Pakistan’s over all military numerical strength is just over one third that of India. Army 550,000, Airforce 70,000, Navy 23,800; total 643,800.

If you look at the military hardware of Pakistan Army, nearly everything, cannons, anti-aircraft missiles, assault rifle, helicopters, fighters, transport planes especially the naval vessels are old compared to Indian war machine. Even the military transport vehicles needs modernization and streamlining. In all branches of the armed forces; India has quantitative as well as qualitative edge over Pakistan.

Pakistan would need to spend $20-billion (one third of 60-billion) on military hardware over next 3 to 5 years just to maintain the current balance between the two counties. However, here is Group Capt. Menon whining about implications for India!!!!! To quote from Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar “But Group Capt. is an honourable man”.

Since WW2, Air Power is an essential requirement on the battlefield. PAF is badly in need of modernization. My dear compatriots, let us not get carried away by an article written with malicious intent and become complacent into false sense of security.
 
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