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PAF & the ramifications of Rafale's sale to India

" someone in PAF said " ....Pakistan ultimate goal to get 36 or more block 52 to match Indian Rafale ...just in case India get it. ...minimum target is set to 36 block 52. ...So, PAF already planned the game...no worries.

sir, in early 2000s when IAF order 200+ su-30mki and to counter that PAF had 5 year plan to buy 72 f-16 blk52 but muchy divid 72 into 36 from west and 36 from east.. out of 36 from west we get 18 other 8 are on order. and the eastern 36 jets are dead..

but now your are saying that PAF want 36 f-16 blk52 to counter rafale..

and i hope someone in 2020 will say that PAF want 36 f-16 blk52 to counter fgfa...

@MastanKhan @Windjammer @Blue Marlin @ACE OF THE AIR @volatile @Tipu7 @Quwa
 
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sir, in early 2000s when IAF order 200+ su-30mki and to counter that PAF had 5 year plan to buy 72 f-16 blk52 but muchy divid 72 into 36 from west and 36 from east.. out of 36 from west we get 18 other 8 are on order. and the eastern 36 jets are dead..

but now your are saying that PAF want 36 f-16 blk52 to counter rafale..

and i hope someone in 2020 will say that PAF want 36 f-16 blk52 to counter fgfa...

@MastanKhan @Windjammer @Blue Marlin @ACE OF THE AIR @volatile @Tipu7 @Quwa


Hi,

The paf created a drama after 9/11---. They had the funds for 72 F16----they could have placed the order at the earliest possible and gotten done with it.

Then they decided to donate the money-----as I say----the money they were given to treat cancer for their mother---they donated that money to a charity organization who stole that money in the end.

Mushy's hand was forced into signing the deal for the 36 J10's---because he saw paf lollygagging on every issue and procurement---the paf tried to sabotage that deal as much as they could and they have done that----.

They realized if that deal went thru---the JF17 project would end---and this would end the opportunity of making money in the future.

That is why I keep saying---the air chiefs of all those periods---their feet need to be held to the fire---.

We need to dig deeper on why they have only procured 18 new potent aircraft in the last 26 years---I am not counting the JF17's.
 
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sir, in early 2000s when IAF order 200+ su-30mki and to counter that PAF had 5 year plan to buy 72 f-16 blk52 but muchy divid 72 into 36 from west and 36 from east.. out of 36 from west we get 18 other 8 are on order. and the eastern 36 jets are dead..

but now your are saying that PAF want 36 f-16 blk52 to counter rafale..

and i hope someone in 2020 will say that PAF want 36 f-16 blk52 to counter fgfa...
I respect your emotions but my dear friend you have to make consideration 2006 to 2015 almost we lost a decade .PAF is among the most professional organization among all three .PAF realizes what it wants but some time i feel they want to play safe (F16). J10 B was lost opportunity in 2005 may be for good reasons .Perhaps now we can have an Aesa version ,Do remember IAF added capabilities in Air will be 10-15 % enhanced from actual which is already formidable considering our inventory .Its no point in blaming any one point is we can still make up and people in planning (I personally know many) looks far more a head then we are here in this forum .As most recently PAF strategy was disclosed to general public Network centricity .So just wait and be patient i have discussed this with someone we are seriously looking for some thing these days (Hint will be China J10C/Russia SU35/Europe Euro fighter) may be all necessary evaluations have already done lets see how things shape up and might be we were waiting for French deal to be closed down .Do remember Qatar also brought Rafale :)
 
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Considering financial constrain it maybe difficult to have another variants of fighter like j-10B/C .so continue buying old and newF-16 and try to get frw F-16 squadron uphraded to F-16V standard. A aignificant upgrade of JF-17 to take it near J-10C /F-16 block 60 with both next generation of missile and more loitering time range. Get long range air defence system Etc
 
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I respect your emotions but my dear friend you have to make consideration 2006 to 2015 almost we lost a decade .PAF is among the most professional organization among all three .PAF realizes what it wants but some time i feel they want to play safe (F16). J10 B was lost opportunity in 2005 may be for good reasons .Perhaps now we can have an Aesa version ,Do remember IAF added capabilities in Air will be 10-15 % enhanced from actual which is already formidable considering our inventory .Its no point in blaming any one point is we can still make up and people in planning (I personally know many) looks far more a head then we are here in this forum .As most recently PAF strategy was disclosed to general public Network centricity .So just wait and be patient i have discussed this with someone we are seriously looking for some thing these days (Hint will be China J10C/Russia SU35/Europe Euro fighter) may be all necessary evaluations have already done lets see how things shape up and might be we were waiting for French deal to be closed down .Do remember Qatar also brought Rafale :)

sir, i'm not talking with emotion, it is insecurity which i feel. given the sworn enemy who has already split our country into two separate states. and from last 20 years india has purchased more than 300 new fighter jets. and IN is spreading itself very fast.. and India has already spreading chaos in Pakistan in every province..
and we Bought just 18 new f-16 (j-17 is replacement for older ones). and suddenly someone quoting PAF's man that 12 years ago 36 f-16 was planned to counter su-30 but they are now re planned to counter 36 rafele:suicide:..

i dont get your point of qatar has also bought rafale?
 
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Hi,

The paf created a drama after 9/11---. They had the funds for 72 F16----they could have placed the order at the earliest possible and gotten done with it.

Then they decided to donate the money-----as I say----the money they were given to treat cancer for their mother---they donated that money to a charity organization who stole that money in the end.

Mushy's hand was forced into signing the deal for the 36 J10's---because he saw paf lollygagging on every issue and procurement---the paf tried to sabotage that deal as much as they could and they have done that----.

They realized if that deal went thru---the JF17 project would end---and this would end the opportunity of making money in the future.

That is why I keep saying---the air chiefs of all those periods---their feet need to be held to the fire---.

We need to dig deeper on why they have only procured 18 new potent aircraft in the last 26 years---I am not counting the JF17's.
because we have large man powered force with little money for equipment procurement
the whole mind set is large and bulky rather than lean and lethal
 
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Well I traditionally follow , an approach of local R&D or working with what we have.
Pakistan's strength is their Engineering and Human Resources.

It is not how many F16 we have

Trun around aim of 3-7 Years

Even with 1000 Rafale , India can't stop what we have

Invest in R&D:

a) KAMRA Avionics factory (Invest 500% more) , 2-3 facilities vs 1 , develop New Gen Avionic
b) Move on SAM local manufacturing (High Altitude)
c) Continue collaboration on next Gen radar
d) Enhance Cruise Missile performance
e) Setup Engine Manufacturing Factory

Enhance MRF: (Keep the facility running) or Repurpose J11 (FighterJet Rebuild Factory)

a) Mirage Rebuilt factory (MRF) (Increase capacity 100%)
b) Bring in 200 Mirage in open market (Dirt Dirt Dirt Cheap)
c) Rebuild and enhance with new generation Avionics, Made in Pakistan
(HUDs, Helmet, Large Screen Avionic, Next Gen Radar) - see if collaboration is possible
d) Add few 2-3 Mirage 2000 squadrons in open market

We do 100% overhauls in Pakistan
pakistani-airforce-technicians-work-on-an-aircraft-at-the-aircraft-picture-id52778368

mrf-6.jpg


Considering we make 99% of maintenance in Pakistan , we could in Theory bring the Mirage bought from Open market to Block 2 Thunder standard (Avionics & Weapons)

or Re-purpose, Aim for TOT for J11 - Figher Jet Rebuild Factory (FRF)
a) Setup J11 Rebuilt Factory in Pakistan with aim of 100 units
b) Bring Next Gen Avionics out of box
c) Start working with more powerful 2 engine jets

20110426014059813.jpg


Mature what we have : (CORE)
a) Grow JF17 Thunder program to Block 3 / 250 Units
b) Expand the Manufacturing Unit (Multi city Operations)
c) Next Gen Cruise Missile
d) $$$ SALES , Make sales

Buy what we need:
a) 4 Navy Destroyers with SAM for coastal Air Defense
b) ASELAN SAM (Medium Range) , Missiles - License Production for border with India


New / Excess defense articles:
>F16 C/D in number
>F18 if available in open market 2 squadrons


or

Sukhoi-35 (5 Squadrons) brand new Top of the line
Twin-Sukhoi-SU-27-Wallpaper.jpg


It's not all that easy as it sounds.

Pakistan need a major shakeup on the government level. Government is keep borrowing money for fake projects and money laundry to xxx accounts in other countries. Pakistan need to have a stable law & order situation and stable economy with honest people running the government, until and unless we have that, we can't make a major purchase.

after evaluating our economic situation for last 8 years, i came to a conclusion that Marshall law is probably better than democratic government.
Here is my take on the defense related issues....

1) Pakistan should still be able to get some new/used F-16 from America (As long as America allow us, we should keep on buying them to increase the #s)

2) invest in Avionics and Radar manufacturing

3) Invest on the JF-17 Block 3, to make it true 4th generation plane, and Block 4, to make it 4.5 generation plane. Pakistan should be building 25 to 30 planes per year for PAF and foreign customers.

4) for stop gap purpose, we can get two squadrons of su-35/j-11/16.

5) I think it's still not too late for mirage-2000. If noting works out, we can get the mirage-2000-9 from UAE or mirage-2000 from France and upgrade them with French/Turkish/Chinese sub-systems. MRF is not going to close since we will keep Mirage Rose III/VI for another 5 to 10 years, so bring used Mirage-2000 should not be an issue. (PAF may consider this going backward)

6) joint-venture with China for the 5th generation plane (J-31 or something similar to it). It will take at-least 3 to 5 years to develop something specific for PAF. Hopefully we can build a prototype by 2021-2022 and start the testing process

7) Allow civil companies to build defense sub-systems.

8) Setup of defense manufacture at different locations, not keep everything at one location. Some manufacturing should be moved to Sindh (Shikarpur, Jacababad and Nawabshah area) and some can be moved to Gwadar area.
 
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PAF's priority remains the same, Minimum credible defence against India. This is no different than introduction of Mirage 2000 in the late 80's with Mig29 as a frontline fighter. It is similar with Rafale coming into the equation and it's relevance is even lower because MKI poses a similar operational challenge.

From PAF's perspective and healthy mix of JF17's and F16's combined would be more than enough to mitigate most of air defence challenges with Blk52 and future AESA upgrades to F16 and the JF17 can be more than enough to meet challenges posed by newer IAF platforms


Yes and no. Given the requirements and the operational mandate of the PAF, Jf17 with a F16 combination with upgrades and continuous improvements can mitigate the requirements. It will be a uphill task if the operational mandate of PAF changes from denial of air superiorty to gain partial air superiority in pockets of Indian airspace.



There are two possible options J31 as popular choice of the forum and the j20 which I think would be game changer.

J31 is the optimal addition if the PAF mandate of denying air superiority to India remains the same.

If the mandate of the PAF changes, which is the aspirations of most Pakistanis where PAF would want to take the fight away from it's airspace into the Indian airspace, then J31 doesn't fit the bill, let me propose the J20 platform would be a more potent albeit slightly more expensive system or a CFT variant of the J31 with extended range.

Engine: The J31's use the same Klimov RD 93 engines as of now on the test bed which may or may not be replaced by a chinese variant. Compare the J31 ranges with the Mig 35/ Mig29 OVT and Mig 29 K which uses the most recent variant of the RD33 series - RD33 MK, similar 17.5 Ton loaded/Gross weight, the ferry range of the Mig 35 is 3100Km with 3 Ext Drop tanks, whereas the J31 is being advertised as a 4000 Km Ferry range.Given that both aircrafts are of similar empty weight around 11-11.5 tons and have a 17.5 ton loaded weight, there is a good chance that both carry similar internal fuel, thus the combat range of the J31 in stealth configuration might not be1200 Km as advertised, rather around 500-600 Kms similar to that of a F16. That would put the idea of deep strike into a pickle.

Airframe: AVIC says that a lot of additive mfg was used in the test bed, and hence could not be dis-assembled during the transportation for testing. As the production models are out to 2019, if any of the RP techniques make it into the production model it will be a nightmare of maintenance and fitment. In addition the airframe was reported to bleed a lot of energy in it's first appearance, hopefully by the production variant those issues might be resolved.






Air defence needs to be pro-active rather than reactive, if Pakistan decides to implement A/D regimes based on developments in the neighborhood, it will forever play catch up rather than be prepared for an contingencies. From the Air defence perspective, it needs a strategic roadmap against not just against india but even worst case scenarios like US too. It needs to understand threat potential and coverages it needs in each sector and needs to develop a comprehensive procurement and development mix based on the resources available to it over the next decade with short and long term gap analysis.





Rather work on the J31 (Pak specific or J20) now, instead of waiting for 10 years.



Have a comprehensive strategic plan, which you already do, and keep steadfast on it.




Yes it absolutely is and in my opinion JF 17 is a freakin magic bullet in that perspective,

Looking at the operating (cap+op) budget of PAF, and the size of the defence budget of Pakistan, what PAF has achieved with the JF17 program is nothing short of brilliant.
One single multirole system to replace 3 platforms (5 variants) Nachang A-5, Mirage III/V, and F7 and F7PG.... If anything the men behind the project should be hailed as National Heroes of Pakistan. At 1/5th of the price, they have successfully done what a 100 million dollar aircraft is struggling to do for the US....

Additionally , JF17 doesn't just replace the aging fleet of dedicated legacy jets, but creates a surprise element within a F16 strike package. One thing we often tend to forget is India-Pakistan border is Huge, looking at the Map we sometimes make the folly of loosing the perspective. A Lo-Lo strike package of JF17 can penetrate Indian defenses along hi-lo F16/Jf17 mix, all IAF forward bases are at risk, now JF 17 much like the F16 lets you use the same platform withn a strike package to be armed with a Air Sup config/ a strike config/ and combination config. That is a game changer, much like what the F16 brought to the table.

Next is ability to tweak open arch com bus and make it read Link 16 tags, JF17 gives pakistan open architecture mission computers, which can be immensly helpful to integrate both Western/Russian/indigenous munitions. You can do whatever you want to do with the systems and know that your on engineers can fix it without any issues. The system provides to capability to serve as test bed for engineering projects, improvement projects, having control over the Bill of material structure, you can change, optimize, re-engineer and validate different materials, different actuators/servos/valves/MFD's/control systems/mission comps/cooling systems/radar/flirs/ EW suite/maws/rwr's, on the component level you can qualify different suppliers to make the aircraft more reliable, cheaper, have lesser down time/ easier maintenance, change local suppliers/ increase local content and more...Which other system in the history of Pakistan has provided such options to Pakistan?




No they are not, and PAF brass has already selected J17 as a replacement for the mirage 3/5, There is no whatsoever reason to second guess one of the most potent airforce's in the world.




Depends, first of - is there a pressing need for french sub-systems, are Chinese russian, italian , american lacking capabilities? Right tool for the right job, irrespective of branding.


Electronic low observability,
Low level penetration,
Low operational cost,
AESA capable radar,
Multi-warhead BVRAAM
High speed Maneuverability,







Well lasting longer in Air or otherwise is always a plus.



No they aren't, but surely they will help in a conflict.

@Oscar @Manticore @PARIKRAMA @anant_s @MastanKhan

Thanks for one of the most balanced and thought provoking post I have read on this forum.

I, respectfully, differ with you on your opinion of combat range of J-31. Combat range (not combat range mentioned in most open source data) of earlier Mig 29 version in use by East German AF and later luftwaffe (based on high subsonic cruise to area of operation, 10 minutes loiter, 1 minute of after burner, high subsonic cruise back to home base) is calculated to be about 150 NM radius. This most probably is because of its very low fuel fraction for two engines although RD-33 Specific fuel consumption is better than sencema engine Rafale carries. j-31 is rumoured to have a much better fuel fraction with about 7 tons of fuel and RD-93 has similar SFC to RD-33. Also I'll want to know your opinion about why Rafale combat range with internal fuel will be better than F-16 (or forgive me for mentioning JF-17) when both have better fuel fraction and better SFC as both are single engined with very good SFC.
 
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A.A and Hello to everyone , This is my first post in this forum after a very long silent reader experience backing it.

As we all know that our beloved neighbour soon getting “Raf” and I’m pretty sure history will repeat itself (post 1998 after the blasts). Well we can’t do much about it “can we” :-)lol

Know the million $$$$ question is what can we do or what can we really do and what should we really do, There are Some option that came in my mind some are wishes for lot of people here for some I’m day dreaming or for some its not possible due to economy or (blah blah ) , but if we all look closely and observe I guess this is all what we left with OUR ONLY OPTIONS ,

As we all know technology is at its peak very expensive so there is not a single bird cheap out there (so please leave economy completely out or 100% in this scenario) and for some other political and international reasons new birds like su35 , j11 , f18 , f15 , and Eu F Typhon are not available to us so as they go out please , Thank u all

Know what we need we have to build that is the reality

So our needs are defend our air, land and sea from our enemy, Enemy which is bigger in number and thanks to last 2 full decodes better in tech too,

Just bring 2025 in your mind for a minute just think Indian will have as they plan 500 su30 (with su35 kits so almost su 35), 150 “RAF” 200 teja with French avionics(yah baby) and Fifth Gen from Russia and migs and Mk2000 and list goes on and on lots or I would say majority of these monster birds are made in India “you like it or not”

so can we only put our eggs in few old and new f16 tray or jf17 which progress is slow for some reasons the answer is a big NO

Now my dream strats

1, We are in 2016 please start JF 17 block 4 upgrade in this year and bring it to gripen NG level like JF17 NG do it in 3 years max make first unit in 2019 put it in production after a year test in 2020 and build 150 total 25 per year. And the more talked block 3 please only produce 20 of it and bring all other to block 3 level so it become 120 JF17 Block3. Total 120 JF17 B3 and 150 JF NG( block 1,2,3). We already have lot of experience in JF17 so it could be done take help if u need,

2, J10c yes J10 c as of its wings (delta) it will be one of the best single engine medium multirole 4++ fighter, Do we need it Yes we need it Bring china in start work on J10C(P) as per our need produce them in Pakistan start there production from 2020 too bring 20 per year and build 150 total in 2 or 3 blocks to replace all of mirages and to keep delta wing in paf

3, As we all know we need heavies and we do need them asap but there is not much we can do about it I mean buying from market , but we can build our own can’t we please use all the experience from JF17 and J10 and take some help if u need start Jf17D (double engine )heavy multirole and J10cpD ( double engine)air superiority fighter both with long legs lol start them from 2018 bring first unit out 2022 and start production 2023 .

Please think about it, as of our economy and future tech rates this is our only option in 2025 when j31 is there we can only be able to buy few dozen of them and Indian will have 1000 best of the best jets as made in India with them , we can’t compete them in economy or in numbers but we can only beat them if we start working at home ASAP.

This is reality just bring 2025 and onwards in your mind Stop thinking jf17 only or f16 alone can help us please stope thinking we can buy 150+j31 and also please stop thinking about su35 and any other 4.5++ heavy ,

Thanks for reading Please forgive for any mistake thanks:pakistan::smitten:
 
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As the thread is in context of Rafale, can Pakistan expect to purchase Eurofighter? Do we have the political clout more than financial ability to buy and maintain such a high profile aircraft?
 
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As the thread is in context of Rafale, can Pakistan expect to purchase Eurofighter? Do we have the political clout more than financial ability to buy and maintain such a high profile aircraft?
I think you can.... You have good relations with britain... germany is neutral and italy hates India right now... UK can pull the strings for you
 
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Thanks for one of the most balanced and thought provoking post I have read on this forum.

I, respectfully, differ with you on your opinion of combat range of J-31. Combat range (not combat range mentioned in most open source data) of earlier Mig 29 version in use by East German AF and later luftwaffe (based on high subsonic cruise to area of operation, 10 minutes loiter, 1 minute of after burner, high subsonic cruise back to home base) is calculated to be about 150 NM radius. This most probably is because of its very low fuel fraction for two engines although RD-33 Specific fuel consumption is better than sencema engine Rafale carries. j-31 is rumoured to have a much better fuel fraction with about 7 tons of fuel and RD-93 has similar SFC to RD-33. Also I'll want to know your opinion about why Rafale combat range with internal fuel will be better than F-16 (or forgive me for mentioning JF-17) when both have better fuel fraction and better SFC as both are single engined with very good SFC.
I am tied up in sunday chores around the house, but will respond soon,
regards
 
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