This is well-known fact that the gap between India and China is enlarging over the whole development course since their each other’s independence.
Funny enough only those living in India do not know much of the fact.
Here is a table that is from famous academic research forum called Penn World Table: pwt.econ.upenn.edu/papers/Delhi1c.pdf
Table 1: Per Capita GDP Levels at 2000 Prices from PWT 6.2
Year GDP pc As % of US Ratio
China(1) India(2) China(3) India(4) India/China(5)
2003 $4970 $2990 14.3% 8.6% 0.60
1978 $669 $1318 3.2% 6.0% 1.97
1952 $326 $794 2.7% 6.3% 2.43
You see, from 1952 to 2003 India/China ratio has changed from an important India (2.43) to less important India (0.60), as compared to China.
Further, at current time (2010) the ratio is about 0.4 (4.0/9.8)
GDP statistics - countries compared - NationMaster
So let’s use a rough linear extrapolation for next ten years base on 2003 – 2010 change.
Roughly,
over the past 7 year's course (2003 – 2010) China makes India 30% relatively less important, from ratio 0.6 down to ratio 0.4. As China moves to higher end, the speed will fall. So, in next 10 years, China makes India another 30% less important instead of in 7 previous years. Thus, it will reduce the ratio from current 0.4 to 2020’s 0.28.
Of course, linear extrapolation appears to be too mechanical and too simplified. It nevertheless serves as a sort of rough estimation. In fact, we don’t see much will change in both India and China, India will keep its happy democracy and China will keep is happy authoritarianism. Both will improve over the time but with a speed in disparity.
Do you see it now?