Opinionated - Does Pakistan Matter?

[LeGenD]

I posted something similar a long time ago, the last time I was on this forum.
Somehow, it feels like an apt moment to repeat and review the truth behind this statement.

Considering Pakistan always seems to be in the limelight for one reason or another.
Let us judge, how influential Pakistan has been in our region, following are my conclusions, which perhaps are a little foretelling of the future.



America vs. the Soviet Union in the cold war
>> America won, supported by > PAKISTAN

America wanted to have good relations with China
>> America did, supported by > PAKISTAN

America wanted to defeat the Soviets in Afghanistan
>> America did, supported by > PAKISTAN

India, Russia, Iran, CAR’s, all Afghan groups against the Taliban
>> Taliban won, supported by > PAKISTAN

American Invasion of Afghanistan vs. Taliban
>> Taliban won, supported by > PAKISTAN

Russia vs. America (Europeans are just puppets, they don't count)
>> to be decided by CHINA > possibly supported by PAKISTAN

America vs. China
>> To be decided, who will be supported by > PAKISTAN


It seems the only side that keeps winning is the side that is supported by PAKISTAN.

USSR collapsed due to numerous internal and external factors.

10 Reasons For The Collapse Of The Soviet Union

What reasons led to the weakening and eventual dissolution of the Soviet communist empire? Read here for answers.

www.worldatlas.com

3 major reasons that caused the collapse of the USSR

The Soviet Union seemed formidable in the mid-1980s, so why did it collapse in just a few years? Due to the weak economy and internal ethnic tensions? Yes, and no.

www.rbth.com

Who Saw the Collapse of the USSR Coming?

On the 30th anniversary of the fall of the Soviet Union, we asked historians, economists and political analysts why it happened, and what lessons it holds for Russia’s future.

www.bloomberg.com

Soviet economic system was not sustainable and Soviet internal political climate shifted when Soviets acquired a taste for Freedom in press and other ways of life.

Pakistan managed to influence course of events in Afghanistan - Pakistan's strategic depth if you will.

- - - -

Russia vs. America situation does not bode well for Russia actually. For perspective, Russian economy was at 5th spot when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 but USA imposed some well-calculated sanctions on Russia and Russian economy have dropped to 11th spot by now. But Putin administration in its hubris, decided to escalate intervention in Ukraine and this seems to be a gross miscalculation.

Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

The Russians expected this to be quick and easy, and if they were the USSR, it would have been. Russia overestimated itself, which allowed the Ukrainians to regroup and put up strong defenses. This gave time for the Ukrainians to launch a diplomatic offensive in Europe. With Europe convinced...

defence.pk

Europe is banding together and willing to confront Russia now. Russia is booted from SWIFT and Nord Stream 2 is on the line as well. Anybody who will take Europe for granted will learn the hard way.

There is much hype about what Pakistan and China can do in this matter but NOT MUCH in reality.

Pakistan must concentrate on itself and not try to overplay its cards in global matters because Pakistan benefits much from its dealings with USA and Europe in economic terms - there is much room for growth in this matter in fact. WE should look forward to build relations with as many countries as possible out there and must choose our battles wisely. Times are changing.

 

[peagle]

USSR collapsed due to numerous internal and external factors.

10 Reasons For The Collapse Of The Soviet Union

What reasons led to the weakening and eventual dissolution of the Soviet communist empire? Read here for answers.

www.worldatlas.com

3 major reasons that caused the collapse of the USSR

The Soviet Union seemed formidable in the mid-1980s, so why did it collapse in just a few years? Due to the weak economy and internal ethnic tensions? Yes, and no.

www.rbth.com

Who Saw the Collapse of the USSR Coming?

On the 30th anniversary of the fall of the Soviet Union, we asked historians, economists and political analysts why it happened, and what lessons it holds for Russia’s future.

www.bloomberg.com

Soviet economic system was not sustainable and Soviet internal political climate shifted when Soviets acquired a taste for Freedom in press and other ways of life.

Pakistan managed to influence course of events in Afghanistan - Pakistan's strategic depth if you will.

- - - -

Russia vs. America situation does not bode well for Russia actually. For perspective, Russian economy was at 5th spot when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 but USA imposed some well-calculated sanctions on Russia and Russian economy have dropped to 11th spot by now. But Putin administration in its hubris, decided to escalate intervention in Ukraine and this seems to be a gross miscalculation.

Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

The Russians expected this to be quick and easy, and if they were the USSR, it would have been. Russia overestimated itself, which allowed the Ukrainians to regroup and put up strong defenses. This gave time for the Ukrainians to launch a diplomatic offensive in Europe. With Europe convinced...

defence.pk

Europe is banding together and willing to confront Russia now. Russia is booted from SWIFT and Nord Stream 2 is on the line as well. Anybody who will take Europe for granted will learn the hard way.

There is much hype about what Pakistan and China can do in this matter but NOT MUCH in reality.

Pakistan must concentrate on itself and not try to overplay its cards in global matters because Pakistan benefits much from its dealings with USA and Europe in economic terms - there is much room for growth in this matter in fact. WE should look forward to build relations with as many countries as possible out there and must choose our battles wisely. Times are changing.

I agree with you 100% and more, but there are nuances, such as no one really saw it coming, hindsight is a beautiful thing. I am old enough to remember and I was a fiery politically interested teen at the time. The efforts made by Pakistan reduced the time available for the USSR to introduce reforms and realign its priorities.

In no way this thread was meant to suggest any desire for any role. Far too often "Pakistan" bashing is alive and well, even amongst Pakistanis themselves. This was meant to be just a reminder that we are not pieces of straw, we have value and we matter, in our own ways.


Regarding the present scenario, I posted a reply on another thread. And, regarding Russia, I certainly agree they will suffer, but they will be fine. I remember writing an essay on the collapse of the Soviet Union in my history class, I wrote at the time that Russia will recover and rise within 10 years, it took slightly longer but they did recover. It was based on simple logic, the Russians have inbuilt strengths and capabilities that cannot be wished away. The same logic still stands, I would say even more so, especially with China as a new reality.

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/was-russia-enticed-to-invade-ukarine.736497/post-13590256


This is the first time ever, I am linking my post in another post, I hope it works. I've seen other people do it.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

Geo-strategically, Pakistan is the gateway to South Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East.

It has a diverse geography that should (if managed correctly) enable it to maintain its own food security and even energy independence (via wind, coal, etc).

It's also a large country. Unfortunately, we didn't devolve authority down to the local level to enable the localities to grow sustainably, so our urban centres are too dense. But again, if we manage correctly, we could have many Karachis in Sindh, many Lahores in Punjab, many Peshawars in KP, and many Islamabads in Baluchistan, Kashmir, Gilgit, etc.

In fact, local devolution and population distribution would also kick-start overhead investment (in necessary infrastructure, telecom, services, etc) across the country, thereby facilitating lots of jobs and, in turn, localized prosperity. Thus, Pakistan can also be an FDI magnet.

We also have a massive trained labour pool that's sitting abroad (expatriates). If the country steers itself on the right path, I'm confident it would actually attract the majority of this pool back. This would give it a huge power-shot of skilled capacity in so many sectors (including semiconductor research) it's not even funny.

I firmly believe Pakistan has all the ingredients to be the 'Germany of the East' if its leadership was only as sincere and competent as that of the Germans. There's no structural or innate reason why we can't be the biggest voice in the Middle East and Central Asia.

The real problem is our leadership. It's not just about corruption. Rather, there's an innate absence of visceral patriotism and even ideational thinking (be it Islam or otherwise -- we're just superficial). It's funny. We got all these secular and Islamic guys, but not even 1% of them read their respective source material. They all rely on 'professors' and 'maulana sahibs' for knowledge.

We just have posers and frauds in charge of our affairs. Their goals in life are to literally buy enough property and party.

This forum has more smart people per 100 people than the entire state apparatus of Pakistan.

 

[RAMPAGE]

I posted something similar a long time ago, the last time I was on this forum.
Somehow, it feels like an apt moment to repeat and review the truth behind this statement.

Considering Pakistan always seems to be in the limelight for one reason or another.
Let us judge, how influential Pakistan has been in our region, following are my conclusions, which perhaps are a little foretelling of the future.



America vs. the Soviet Union in the cold war
>> America won, supported by > PAKISTAN

America wanted to have good relations with China
>> America did, supported by > PAKISTAN

America wanted to defeat the Soviets in Afghanistan
>> America did, supported by > PAKISTAN

India, Russia, Iran, CAR’s, all Afghan groups against the Taliban
>> Taliban won, supported by > PAKISTAN

American Invasion of Afghanistan vs. Taliban
>> Taliban won, supported by > PAKISTAN

Russia vs. America (Europeans are just puppets, they don't count)
>> to be decided by CHINA > possibly supported by PAKISTAN

America vs. China
>> To be decided, who will be supported by > PAKISTAN


It seems the only side that keeps winning is the side that is supported by PAKISTAN.

Cum hoc, ergo proper hoc?

 

[LeGenD]

I agree with you 100% and more, but there are nuances, such as no one really saw it coming, hindsight is a beautiful thing. I am old enough to remember and I was a fiery politically interested teen at the time. The efforts made by Pakistan reduced the time available for the USSR to introduce reforms and realign its priorities.

In no way this thread was meant to suggest any desire for any role. Far too often "Pakistan" bashing is alive and well, even amongst Pakistanis themselves. This was meant to be just a reminder that we are not pieces of straw, we have value and we matter, in our own ways.


Regarding the present scenario, I posted a reply on another thread. And, regarding Russia, I certainly agree they will suffer, but they will be fine. I remember writing an essay on the collapse of the Soviet Union in my history class, I wrote at the time that Russia will recover and rise within 10 years, it took slightly longer but they did recover. It was based on simple logic, the Russians have inbuilt strengths and capabilities that cannot be wished away. The same logic still stands, I would say even more so, especially with China as a new reality.

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/was-russia-enticed-to-invade-ukarine.736497/post-13590256


This is the first time ever, I am linking my post in another post, I hope it works. I've seen other people do it.

WE might need to decide the criteria of FINE in our discourses. Countries like North Korea and Venezuela continue to function as well but do these countries live up to their potential? Venezuela is packing largest reserves of oil in the world but its economic situation is bleak in spite of significant Chinese investment.

Russia was able to offset the impact of American sanctions because of its economic dealings with Europe. USA wasn't able to convince much of Europe to penalize Russia on the level it wanted to in the period (2014 - 2021) but this is changing due to ongoing developments in Ukraine. Russia will be in 'survival mode' now - this is NOT fine in my books. Russia is blessed with the largest amount of natural resources in the world but it isn't living up to its potential (not even close) and it seems to have bitten more than it can chew in Europe this time. Putin needs to rethink what he is doing - ordinary Russians have a breaking point as well.

 

[peagle]

Cum hoc, ergo proper hoc.

If that's the view you take, you are free to do so.
Personally, I think details tend to be more complicated.

 

[RAMPAGE]

Personally, I think details tend to be more complicated.

Yes. Clearly, you do.

 

[peagle]

Yes, clearly.

Right, for that you need a conversation.

 

[peagle]

WE might need to decide the criteria of FINE in our discourses. Countries like North Korea and Venezuela continue to function as well but do these countries live up to their potential? Venezuela is packing largest reserves of oil in the world but its economic situation is bleak in spite of significant Chinese investment.

Russia was able to offset the impact of American sanctions because of its economic dealings with Europe. USA wasn't able to convince much of Europe to penalize Russia on the level it wanted to in the period (2014 - 2021) but this is changing due to ongoing developments in Ukraine. Russia will be in 'survival mode' now - this is NOT fine in my books. Russia is blessed with the largest amount of natural resources in the world but it isn't living up to its potential (not even close) and it seems to have bitten more than it can chew in Europe this time. Putin needs to rethink what he is doing - ordinary Russians have a breaking point as well.

Again, I agree 100%.
If we split post Soviet period into three phases, the 90s, 00's, 10's.

Russia's worse period was the 90's, it had no allies or friends, and internally it was in meltdown, but it survived. In my view not an ideal result, with dictatorship disguised as democracy, but for them they are sort of happy.

It regrouped, and the 00's delivered a semblance of stability, it still had no major friends and because memories are fickle, the Europeans were happy to deal, hoping for good results. In the meantime, American hubris was eating away at it's capabilities, and the trust of it's allies. So, Russia regrouped.

10's, bought about a confident, although shaky Russia, but a resurgent China and an increasingly stable and strong friendship, combined with clear cracks in American power and shaky alliances, exacerbated by the Trump presidency. But Russia had built sufficient internal strengths, in industry, military and political structure.

This brings us into the 20's, there are too many variable for anyone to make solid predictions, it truly is all in the air. But things are not totally stacked in the favour of the west, as we like to think, we are coloured by history and the might of the white man. I do not claim to know much, but my mind says they'll be fine in the long term. In the short term it is going to hurt plenty, but some nations, such as Russia and China are used to playing the long game, and I think this factor has already been calculated.

How the long game plays out is hard to define, but one thing is for sure, if Russia losses, it will lose far more then it did after the collapse of the Soviet Union. And, if Russia loses, China also loses. I find it hard to believe that Russia will lose, there is far too much at stake.

On the flip side, Americans can't afford to lose either, although they have already won, by bringing their old allies under command. But a compromised comprise will likely ensure, because that's the only respectable exit for all sides.
This isn't the Korean war, Vietnam war, or the Afghanistan war, if it gets dirty, it's the white blood that will spill, they certainly do no want that.

Yes. Clearly, you do.

Please stop being an idiot, you can't go back and change your post after I have replied to it, that's childish.
You are a senior member, behave like one.

If you have something to say, then say so, grow the heck up, or stop trolling me, I don't deal with children.