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Opinionated - China Chipping Away to Semiconductor Dominance

I think 2019-2020 will be threshold years for China's semiconductor industry. China will at least join in the leading manufacturers, cutting down on expensive imports.

Totally and utterly incorrect.

In this period China's most advanced node will be 14nm, while world's most advanced node will be 5 nm. China will be 3 generations behind.

China will have no DRAM manufacturer.

China will have a NAND manufacturer whose products will not be competitive, and will lag 3 generations behind leading edge.

China will still be importing x86 chips.

China will have no major GPU and FPGA vendors as such.

China will be dependent on foreign suppliers for equipment, materials etc.
 
Totally and utterly incorrect.

In this period China's most advanced node will be 14nm, while world's most advanced node will be 5 nm. China will be 3 generations behind.

China will have no DRAM manufacturer.

China will have a NAND manufacturer whose products will not be competitive, and will lag 3 generations behind leading edge.

China will still be importing x86 chips.

China will have no major GPU and FPGA vendors as such.

China will be dependent on foreign suppliers for equipment, materials etc.
No.
 
Totally and utterly incorrect.

In this period China's most advanced node will be 14nm, while world's most advanced node will be 5 nm. China will be 3 generations behind.

China will have no DRAM manufacturer.

China will have a NAND manufacturer whose products will not be competitive, and will lag 3 generations behind leading edge.

China will still be importing x86 chips.

China will have no major GPU and FPGA vendors as such.

China will be dependent on foreign suppliers for equipment, materials etc.
So? At least we are trying our best? What are you doing here moaning? What is India doing? Nothing but talking right?
For the materials part, please do some research. We do produce our own semiconductor materials but not 100%. Ever heard of Amex 5nm etcher? You can moan all you want we are still gonna advance inch by inch what has history proven to you? China will always reach there and you will always be behind us. It's just cultural, you talk/ moan/ and get jealous instead of working hard.


I think 2019-2020 will be threshold years for China's semiconductor industry. China will at least join in the leading manufacturers, cutting down on expensive imports.
We are already the top 10 largest fab but not at the most advanced node.
 
So? At least we are trying our best? What are you doing here moaning? What is India doing? Nothing but talking right?
For the materials part, please do some research. We do produce our own semiconductor materials but not 100%. Ever heard of Amex 5nm etcher? You can moan all you want we are still gonna advance inch by inch what has history proven to you? China will always reach there and you will always be behind us. It's just cultural, you talk/ moan/ and get jealous instead of working hard.

Did I ever bring up India? You could have said that India is very behind, and I would have agreed.

What I disagreed to was the stupid notion that within a year or two China was somehow going to catch up to the leaders in the field.

And that is the truth. You may catch up in the future, I wish you luck, but in the next 1-2 year, it's a definite NO.

Also, AMEC 5nm etcher is an under development product, apart from that AMEC has a 2-3% market share in the etching equipment market. I wonder why it's products are not as widely used if they are indeed good enough.

Your semiconductor material vendors are actually few and far between. In fact, most of Chinese production of such materials is done by foreign companies. So things like electronic grade pure gases are produced not by Chinese companies, but fully owned foreign subsidiaries.

We are already the top 10 largest fab but not at the most advanced node.

Sure you are in the top 10. But the claim by @TaiShang was that soon in a year you would be getting rid of imports and foreign suppliers.

That is totally nuts. Even, the mid range phones these days are being manufactured at processes of 10nm.
 
Did I ever bring up India? You could have said that India is very behind, and I would have agreed.

What I disagreed to was the stupid notion that within a year or two China was somehow going to catch up to the leaders in the field.

And that is the truth. You may catch up in the future, I wish you luck, but in the next 1-2 year, it's a definite NO.

Also, AMEC 5nm etcher is an under development product, apart from that AMEC has a 2-3% market share in the etching equipment market. I wonder why it's products are not as widely used if they are indeed good enough.

Your semiconductor material vendors are actually few and far between. In fact, most of Chinese production of such materials is done by foreign companies. So things like electronic grade pure gases are produced not by Chinese companies, but fully owned foreign subsidiaries.



Sure you are in the top 10. But the claim by @TaiShang was that soon in a year you would be getting rid of imports and foreign suppliers.

That is totally nuts. Even, the mid range phones these days are being manufactured at processes of 10nm.
AMEC etcher is already being used in TSMC, the reason they are underutilized is because of branding issues not just because of technology. Well, I believe we can catch up within 4-5 years, not the best but on par.

We have materials and even gases, just not as efficient, you shut us out of that chain, we can still produce those essential materials. I suggest you do more research on our domestic manufacturers and btw you think Linde and Air Products can just move their plants away in a day? Those engineers Manning those plants are not Chinese? It's only out of respect of intellectual property we can't commandeer their technology.

Blazing a trail in industrial gases
http://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201806/04/WS5b149f4aa31001b82571df52.html

Not many might be aware that a Chinese entity called the 718th Research Institute is the world's third-largest manufacturer of industrial gases such as nitrogen trifluoride or and tungsten hexafluoride or WF6.

These gases are used widely in industries like semiconductors and solar energy
 
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My 2 cents, not an expert on semicon though:

Simply due to population size, Samsung of S Korea just can’t compete with the leading firms from the US, China, the EU and Japan in the long run.

Intel, or other world leading US high tech firms in general, enjoys a decisive systematic advantage over SMIC and most other top tech firms of China, namely the world’s largest and the most complete cross-discipline Value Chain . This makes it very hard for China to compete with at the top end.

By "value chain" I specifically mean the broad sense (in contrast to usual narrow sense industrial value chain) individual-centred innovation culture + well-funded R&D integrated into complete industrial value chain + supplemented by the relatively efficient (and the most powerful) financial machenism particularly WS investment banking and VC.

Under such a system, an innovative individual is proactively encouraged culturally and financially to come up with fresh ideas. And these ideas (not neccesarily even world-leading some times compared to their potential competitors in the rest of the world, e.g. Facebook, or Microsoft ), could be more easily discovered,nurished, and well-financed immediately by either locally-based VC or universities, before being recommended, assisted and adopted by local industry leaders and eventually propagated throughout the rest of the world being the next gen gold standard by both the local world-class industries and universities, valued and supported in int’l capital market by the most powerful financial force – WallStreet.

China currently is no match for this "killer app", if its current financial sector ( particularly investment banking and VC), deep and systematic integration of local universities & industries, and its party-dominated (instead of private industrialists-dominated) large companies are not up to the same, or even better, standard of efficiency.

That’s why we see most of ground-breaking innovations which eventually lead the world next gen industrial standards come from the West, particularly the US.

This then leads to the popular myth that “Westerners can innovate, and the Chinese lack genes of innovation but just copy”. It is not gene, but more the aforementioned system behind the scene that makes or breaks, let alone the fact the many who are mainly responsible for so-called “westerners innovations” are in fact “the Chinese” who happen to live in the West.

So on the topic, even though Huawei and ZTE show that it can be done to some extent in one area (i.e. telecom), without deep and thorough re-structuring of Chinese party-owned large industries and universities to become more “Huawei-alike” at least, China (e.g. SMIC etc) is unlikely to match, let alone surpass, most other key industrial sector leaders of the US, such as what Intel and ARM do in semicon, in the foreseeable future I am afraid, simply because the US is bound to constantly generate the next “Steven Jobs” systematically, while the relatively inefficient Chinese system is bound to bury, or at least drag the legs of, the next “Chinese Steven Jobs” systematically .

In order to compete with the US on key tech, China must change.

does the chinese version of steve jobs get buried in the intense competition in China ?
is my hunch right ?
 
does the chinese version of steve jobs get buried in the intense competition in China ?
is my hunch right ?
Why would the Chinese want to emulate Steve Jobs.?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/science...layed-no-role-design-early-Apple-devices.html
Steve Jobs didn't know technology and just wanted to be important': Steve Wozniak claims his business partner played no role in the design of early Apple devices

Steve Jobs is JUST A SMART THIEF.
Steve Jobs "Good artists copy; great artists steal"
https://www.forbes.com/sites/gilpre...-steals-from-xerox-to-battle-big-brother-ibm/
Apple and Steve Jobs Steal From Xerox To Battle Big Brother IBM

Lucky Steve Jobs is AMERICAN or else he will perish IN JAIL.
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Why would the Chinese want to emulate Steve Jobs.?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/science...layed-no-role-design-early-Apple-devices.html
Steve Jobs didn't know technology and just wanted to be important': Steve Wozniak claims his business partner played no role in the design of early Apple devices

Steve Jobs is JUST A SMART THIEF.
Steve Jobs "Good artists copy; great artists steal"
https://www.forbes.com/sites/gilpre...-steals-from-xerox-to-battle-big-brother-ibm/
Apple and Steve Jobs Steal From Xerox To Battle Big Brother IBM

Lucky Steve Jobs is AMERICAN or else he will perish IN JAIL.
.


The Mac OS, iPod, iPhone and iPad are innovative devices. Are there components invented by others ? yes.
No one put it all together
 
The Mac OS, iPod, iPhone and iPad are innovative devices. Are there components invented by others ? yes.
No one put it all together
A THIEF Nonetheless.
Others are just improvements and evolutionary development but exemplary PACKAGING(putting it all together), ADVERTISING and PROMOTION.
Mac OS is BSD unix clone, another example of COPYCAT and STEALING.

Steve Jobs is no doubt an excellent SALESMAN, maybe an innovative salesman.
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A THIEF Nonetheless.
Others are just improvements and evolutionary development but exemplary PACKAGING(putting it all together), ADVERTISING and PROMOTION.
Mac OS is BSD unix clone, another example of COPYCAT and STEALING.

Steve Jobs is no doubt an excellent SALESMAN, maybe an innovative salesman.
.

What stops you from distributing BSD Unix. Sun, Silicon Graphics and HP all tried
 
What stops you from distributing BSD Unix. Sun, Silicon Graphics and HP all tried
I already stated, he is excellent SALESMAN.
DON'T MOVE THE GOAL POST.
You listed Mac OS as exceptional, when Apple is just distributing BSD Unix with their SELFISH PROTECTIVE LAYER.
Steve Jobs is a SELFISH and GREEDY THIEF that nobody should emulate or adore.

IF apple is not the SELFISH B-a-s-tard that it is, we could have 32bit programs very early on.
Ditto, we could all had Apple Firewire since 1986 instead of then very problematic and mostly unusable USB 1.1 in 1996.

Apple could have made themselves VERY RICH then, and everybody happy had they not been SO GREEDY, suing everybody instead of licensing their architecture and allow all to make peripherals for the Apple computer.
Ditto Apple Firewire.
Instead it allowed IBM to take over the PC market and we got stuck with 16bit SEGMENTED programming and Little En-dian data structures and Little En-dian serial ports while the Internet uses Big En-dian data, screwing all hardware.

The BIGGEST CAKE OF ALL is SHAMELESS Steve Jobs the THIEF got exposed when he tried to sue Microsoft for stealing WHAT HE HAD STOLEN.

https://www.businessinsider.sg/bill...on-about-copying-steve-jobs-2017-3/?r=US&IR=T.
Reddit question about copying Steve Jobs
Gates responded: “I think it’s more like we both had this rich neighbor named Xerox and I broke into his house to steal the TV set and found out that you had already stolen it.”

More Stealing.
https://www.cnet.com/news/apple-settles-with-creative-for-100-million-1/
Apple settles with Creative for $100 million
Apple agrees to license Creative patent for music player interface.
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China will have a NAND manufacturer whose products will not be competitive, and will lag 3 generations behind leading edge.
NAND have reached its limits and am not talking about Moore's Law.

As a technology, NAND cannot go further. Smaller nodes and stacking dies are merely band-aid fixes to what the market want -- higher capacity and faster non-volatile memory. The world is ripe for a new NVM type and that is why Intel and Micron are bullish about 3DXP, a version of phase change memory (PCM). Whether 3DXP is profitable or not, is not the point, which is that currently, PCM seems to be the best alternative to replace NAND in the long run.
 
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