Operation Rah-e-Rast (Swat)

[asq]

I don't know anything, but I have a guess based on an analogy: during the American Civil War we had an excellent and popular general by the name of McClellan. He could defeat Confederate armies, but then he'd let them escape rather than destroy them. He was insubordinate to his president and was removed from high command, but remained just popular and professional enough for President Lincoln to keep him in the Army - he proved indispensable at protecting Washington from rebel attack.

Yet as time passed and the next election approached he ran for president - in opposition to the president he was serving - on an anti-war platform promising to end the bloody war by accepting the Confederacy and negotiating a settlement, holding himself as the man who was strong enough to do it - and more clever and effective in war than the president he served, who obviously must be messing things up because the war had lasted so long.

McClellan very nearly won the 1864 presidential election, and after the Civil War he did win an election and became governor of New Jersey.

The point is, we may be seeing something similar here, some quite general or politician messing things up just enough so the Taliban War gets drawn out so he can offer himself up to the country as the next natural leader. There wouldn't even have to be a coup...

excellent reminder of how things can happen as they did in American revolution, it may be a way of keeping peace while not going gung ho to eliminate innocent on both sides. who due to their poverty may have join this war without their full willingness due to their location and their bad situations.

May God help mankind to see the light.

 

[EyelessInGaza]

I don't know anything, but I have a guess based on an analogy: during the American Civil War we had an excellent and popular general by the name of McClellan. He could defeat Confederate armies, but then he'd let them escape rather than destroy them. He was insubordinate to his president and was removed from high command, but remained just popular and professional enough for President Lincoln to keep him in the Army - he proved indispensable at protecting Washington from rebel attack...........

Not in line with the thread direction, but I thought McClellan never 'really' defeated the confederates?

IIRC he built a great army, but he never wanted to fight with it, let, as you said, his enemy escape because he never fully engaged.

His soldiers loved him BTW.

 

[Hellfire]

Simplistic assumptions about some sort of 'bull in a china shop' campaign, after reading about the use of airstrikes and artillery, are not helpful.

Beats logic AM

The quted text also says that villagers are being given warning before the launch of strkies, now you mean to say that there shall be no information being passed onto militants at all through this tactics?
If villagers are getting the warning, so are the TTP!!!!

Now who is so wise as to give this out? A blunder it is if true, or blatant lie if I know PA even 1%.

So the assumption of disproportionate force employment WITHIN OWN territory holds sir!

 

[Hellfire]

There are actually way too many simplistic assumptions being shouted here without the slightest bit of information. Allegations of "blind use of force" is one example, and all this talk of "letting the terrorists escape" is another. With details not released and the operation on-going, we have all these "defence analysts" dissecting the operation as if it were from the second world war. All this crap about the "baloon effect" and what not, its like writing a movie review after watching the teaser trailer, and that too only half.

Thanks, Agnostic, for stating what was on my mind. People are grabbing at straws to malign the operation, and when they can't find anything, they're inventing garbage.

Very analytical perspective.

Only thing is that this view is valid in the short term. The impact of any military offensive on the local demography and economy, has to be calculated well in advance. The near sighted approach by GoP has been exhibited on numerous occassions. No one is AT ALL challenging the competency of PA and as such invention of garbage is minimal ( I agree it is there though).

The near sighted approach has failed to take into account the costs of rebuilding which shall be exponentially much greater. And there can be no dissent that to complete achieve victory over TTP , you shall have to infuse massive amount of funds for development in all spheres. And if you look at the military operations in view of that and the mismatch in the need of and availability of resources for the same, you shall understand the prudence of a more cautious approach.

In addition you are operating in a large flux. The disbanding of TTP into smaller bands with integration into the exodus which is still leaving the cities and towns will allow this insurgency to resurface in a more urbane set up. That fact has to be appreciated.

I have yet to come across any group in any insurgency across the world which has been militarily defeated!!!

 

[Hellfire]

rokhanyousafzai

the stashes are what the commandos are going after read the article

if it was so easy to remove the caches, do you think IA would not have done it by now in kashmir where the troop levels are much more on ground than similarly for your side? i am NOT drawing any parallel to IA here, just to drive in the point that information of such caches is ONLY obtained from hard intel obtained from inside sources. In addition, there is not going to be a situation where the caches will be fixed or in large numbers at any time. So to elimination will not be possible

You have read the article, and stopped there only, I read it and collated the necessary information with the mindset and working of any insurgent outfit, so my comments.


and the most important point is that initially they welcomed the taliban because they didnt say anyting to anyone the same happened in waziristan and in bajaur but in all three cases when people got sick of them and went to their elders the taliban would eliminate the elders and so there would be no other source of authority people could turn to against the taliban but now that there is such deep hatred the people who were in the taliban might still be there but with no suppourt their insurgency will not last

the same may be the fate of PA. Employement of massive amounts of force will cause extensive damage and as such if no follow up programs are initiated within a short span with adequate amounts of funds to back up, this support may be short lived too ....... and after all many members have stressed that there is a widespread support for shariat there and TTP can revert back to brainwashing the simple people there that the action was on behest of US who is anti-islam so its back to square one

 

[All-Green]

Beats logic AM

The quted text also says that villagers are being given warning before the launch of strkies, now you mean to say that there shall be no information being passed onto militants at all through this tactics?
If villagers are getting the warning, so are the TTP!!!!

Now who is so wise as to give this out? A blunder it is if true, or blatant lie if I know PA even 1%.

So the assumption of disproportionate force employment WITHIN OWN territory holds sir!

Do understand that many villages are spread out in these areas.
There are TTP strongholds in known areas where they shall be barricaded/dug in and will not surrender readily...warning the villagers to vacate the premises will not result in a TTP withdrawal in many areas.

When you operate in your own territory you have to strike a balance between giving ample warning to the civilians and being secretive, details are withheld but warning to vacate a village can be given without a major compromise especially in case the area is surrounded and being monitored by troops.

SSG and forward deployment of recon forces behind enemy lines shall ensure better accuracy in directing fire than done previously in any action.

There has been heavy infantry action and the injuries/casualties of PA are indicative of the stiff resistance being faced.

You do not send in your best troops in the heart of the enemy if you are saving your Azz and just want to pepper the enemy with strikes from afar...that clearly indicates that PA is putting everything on the line and is not averse to facing death for the cause of Pakistan.

 

[Hellfire]

Do understand that many villages are spread out in these areas.
There are TTP strongholds in known areas where they shall be barricaded/dug in and will not surrender readily...warning the villagers to vacate the premises will not result in a TTP withdrawal in many areas.

When you operate in your own territory you have to strike a balance between giving ample warning to the civilians and being secretive, details are withheld but warning to vacate a village can be given without a major compromise especially in case the area is surrounded and being monitored by troops.

Sir

Any insurgency is based on dissolving itself and melting into surroundings in face of sustained operations. As such, this basic principle, am sure, now the TTP may also be forced to follow seeing the idiocy of fighting PA in a conventional format. The employment of sustained air power/artillery-armour assets has, am confident, definitely taught them the fact that they can not afford to engage PA like regular fighting force. They stood no chance neither do also.

However, the question of warning is hilarious if claimed. No military commander will warn and that stands for PA too. So this assertion is fundamentally flawed. No infantry commander will squander away advantage. And while your assertion towards the will of PA soldier to lay down his life in truest traditions is not disputed and heartily assented to, the implications that by warning overtly for an attack, PA commander will unnecessarily risk the life of his soldier to a prepared enemy is bit hard to digest.

As an officer, you shall am sure agree, that there is a tradition which we as also PA follows, that the welfare of your troops comes first, and you must justify the loss of even one of your combatants to yourself in terms of advantage gained/target achieved.

Also my reply was specific to the quoted text. Cordon and search will definitely yield higher results than a direct strike on a village/built up area as when civillians will flee, the cadres can abandon their arms and disguise in them as fleeing members and regroup later on. Its a counterproductive strategy and I have strongest possible reservations that PA is doing that.

Thanks

 

[fatman17]

Pakistan Army Chief Orders Precision Strikes in Swat (Update1)

By Khalid Qayum

May 13 (Bloomberg) -- Pakistani army chief Ashfaq Parvez Kayani said he has told troops to ensure minimum collateral damage by resorting to “precision strikes” in the operation against Taliban militants in the country’s northwest.

“Consequent to any military operation in populated areas, collateral damage and refugee issues are always a natural outcome,” according to a statement released today in the garrison city of Rawalpindi, citing Kayani.

The United Nations yesterday said it had so far registered more than 500,000 people who have fled the fighting in the Swat valley and neighboring districts since May 2. Of these, about 73,000 are staying in temporary camps, while the others are with relatives or friends, it said.

The military has intensified efforts to wrest control of the Swat valley and neighboring districts from Taliban gunmen as Richard Holbrooke, the U.S. special envoy for Pakistan and Afghanistan, yesterday defended requests to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for further financial aid to Pakistan.

The military said yesterday it had killed 751 militants since the operation began on April 26 against insurgents who reneged on a peace accord and advanced toward the capital.

Eleven more terrorists, including key militant Naseeb Rehman, were killed in the last 24 hours, the army said in a statement today.

The army will provide support to the government and aid agencies managing the refugees, Kayani said.

Aid to Refugees

The UN High Commission for Refugees is airlifting emergency supplies to the region including temporary shelters, mosquito nets and two warehouses. Civilians have poured out of Swat and the neighboring districts of Buner and Lower Dir, it said.

“The speed and scale of this crisis is posing huge challenges,” High Commissioner Antonio Guterres said in a statement yesterday.

Thirty-three soldiers have died in the fighting against an estimated 4,000 Taliban fighters, the military said. Five beheaded bodies were also found around Mingora in the last 24 hours, it said. Casualties can’t be independently verified.

The gunmen should have disarmed after Islamic law was introduced in the region under the February accord. Instead, the militants advanced to within 100 kilometers (60 miles) of Islamabad, as senior U.S. officials voiced fears the government and the army were appeasing the militants and pressed for retaliation.

“Militants are on the run,” military spokesman Major General Athar Abbas said yesterday. “The army has achieved considerable success.”

Troops intensified their operations in Swat last week after Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani ordered an “all-out assault” on the Taliban. During an almost two-year campaign to bring the area under Islamic law, the militants beheaded local officials, burned schools and banned education for girls.

To contact the reporters on this story: Khalid Qayum in Islamabad at kqayum@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: May 13, 2009 06:48 EDT

 

[ajpirzada]

FEATURE-Pakistan army brings some relief from enduring nightmare
Thu May 14, 2009 2:46pm IST Email | Print | Share| Single Page[-] Text [+] By Simon Cameron-Moore

MARDAN, Pakistan, May 14 (Reuters) - Muhammad Azam Khan Hoti hasn't always been so certain, but he has few doubts left about the Pakistan army's determination to crush the Taliban and al Qaeda allies fighting in Swat valley.

"I'm damn sure they mean business this time," said the 63-year-old Pashtun patriarch from the northwest town of Mardan, as he drove between tented encampments set up for families who have fled the fighting north of the Malakand hills.

The offensive is entering its second week, and more than 700 militants have been killed, according to the military, while North West Frontier Province (NWFP) is reeling from the exodus of more than 700,000 people from the battle zone.

Pakistan's military is under pressure from the United States to act decisively against support in Pakistan for the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan.

When the Taliban insurgency was confined to Afghanistan and the Pakistani tribal areas on the border, Hoti used to think of it as an alien war, fought for the sake of the United States.

But the backwash of violence across NWFP over the past two years has convinced him otherwise.

"It is our own war. It is a war of survival, survival of this country -- Pakistan," said Hoti, an Awami National Party (ANP) grandee whose son is the chief minister of NWFP.

There are Taliban in Mardan, a bustling town on a fertile plain 100 km (60 miles) northwest of Islamabad.

They aren't as visible or as numerous as in the mountains of Swat, but there is real fear that some fighters will sneak in with the flood of people descending on the town.

At a checkpoint on the edge of Mardan, police looked for Taliban hiding among exhausted families crammed in cars, pick-up trucks and buses, and swept the vehicles with detectors in a cursory search for weapons and explosives.

"It's a nightmare," Hoti said as he steered his armour plated, bullet proof four-wheel drive vehicle through the town, protected by armed bodyguards in jeeps to the front and rear.

Like many leaders of the secular Pashtun nationalist ANP, Hoti is on a Taliban hit list.

"They fired three rockets at my house last summer, they went 20 metres over our heads," said Hoti, whose estate is protected by three perimeter walls, high metal gates and private security.

His front seat passenger had a far closer shave.

"You are travelling with two prime targets," Mardan police chief Akhtar Ali Shah told Reuters.

"I survived a suicide attack," said the police chief. Four police and five passers-by were killed in the Oct. 31 attack. The bomber's head landed in Shah's gateway as he sat in the car.

DOUBT AND SUSPICION

The Taliban and its allies had around 5,000 fighters in Swat, according to the military, and Hoti expects the army to squeeze the remnants north over the mountains into the thinly populated Kalam valley where they can be finished off more easily.

Whether there is a systematic follow through to destroy the Taliban elsewhere is an open question, though in March the army claimed victory after a 7-month campaign in Bajaur tribal region.

"I know the might of this army," said Hoti, who served as a captain in the Armoured Corps during the 1971 war with India and was a minister in both Nawaz Sharif governments in the 1990s.

"If they are determined to finish it they can."

Yet, there are perennial doubts over Pakistan's resolve.

An analysis published by the U.S.-based Strafor security consultancy on Wednesday said the army, after winning in Bajaur, reached "an implicit understanding that local Taliban will focus their efforts on Afghanistan instead of Pakistan".

Not all militants are regarded as enemies of the state, analysts say.

They believe some jihadi groups from the eastern province of Punjab and mujahideen factions in the tribal areas are still seen as assets that can be turned loose on Afghanistan or India.

Over the years some of the most feared jihadi movements opened offices in Swat, a halfway point in a militant transit route running between Indian Kashmir and eastern Afghanistan.

They included Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad, two groups primarily focused on fighting Indian rule in Kashmir, as well as factions that sprang from Sipah-e-Sahaba, a Sunni Muslim movement that hates Shi'ites, according to police chief Shah.

They recruited locally, but sent fighters from the poor townships of central Punjab province for training in camps established in forested heights above Swat valley.

SEPARATING ASSETS FROM HOSTILES

Though his party's Pashtun nationalism is distrusted by the military, Hoti avoids criticising the army he once served as he describes how the Taliban insurgency came to his doorstep.

Pakistani generals believe foreign powers, including India, are stirring trouble in Pakistan's troubled northwest, and Hoti is sure some outside forces are providing arms and money.

He suspects an earlier military offensive in Swat in late 2007, early 2008, was inconclusive because Pakistani intelligence wanted time to separate assets from hostiles.

Now he and Shah reckon those groups have largely left Swat.

That left behind Pakistani Taliban, Central Asian fighters from Uzbekistan and Tajikistan as well as al Qaeda cohorts, like Jammat-ul-Furqan, a step-child of the better known anti-India Jaish-e-Mohammad jihadi group.

When these militants moved in Buner valley from Swat last month, the army was finally ordered into action.

"Maybe we would not be sitting here if that decision had not been taken," said Hoti. (Editing by Sugita Katyal)

FEATURE-Pakistan army brings some relief from enduring nightmare | Reuters

 

[rokhanyousafzai]

rokhanyousafzai

the stashes are what the commandos are going after read the article

if it was so easy to remove the caches, do you think IA would not have done it by now in kashmir where the troop levels are much more on ground than similarly for your side? i am NOT drawing any parallel to IA here, just to drive in the point that information of such caches is ONLY obtained from hard intel obtained from inside sources. In addition, there is not going to be a situation where the caches will be fixed or in large numbers at any time. So to elimination will not be possible

You have read the article, and stopped there only, I read it and collated the necessary information with the mindset and working of any insurgent outfit, so my comments.


and the most important point is that initially they welcomed the taliban because they didnt say anyting to anyone the same happened in waziristan and in bajaur but in all three cases when people got sick of them and went to their elders the taliban would eliminate the elders and so there would be no other source of authority people could turn to against the taliban but now that there is such deep hatred the people who were in the taliban might still be there but with no suppourt their insurgency will not last

the same may be the fate of PA. Employement of massive amounts of force will cause extensive damage and as such if no follow up programs are initiated within a short span with adequate amounts of funds to back up, this support may be short lived too ....... and after all many members have stressed that there is a widespread support for shariat there and TTP can revert back to brainwashing the simple people there that the action was on behest of US who is anti-islam so its back to square one

now im not a military spokesman and it will be clear after some time how much of the caches have been destroyed also the people have accompanied army in helis to show them those hideouts and possibly caches in those areas. with all due respect the weaponry and calling in of everyting we have for this offensive shows how serius they are about this correct me if im wrong but i dont think the indian army used its airpower to such an extent. I have good friends in mingora so i have a basic idea of what its like there.

now ur second point i dont blame u for because u havent been watching pakistani news channels either because u dont have access to or just dont watch them but the govt both regional and pak govt have planned for rebuilding to start as soon as its over. Now ur second point is very naive there is widespread suppourt for sharia but theres nothing wrong with that thats how it was originally but they is no suppourt for taliban sharia. Also understand how taliban toke power they came in and first heard the complaints of the people they bought docter fees and school fees down and so won the suppourt of the people and only after that they started to introduce their law and then the horrors began and it became clear that they are not interested in peace they have their own agenda the people could not raise their voice and they began bombing markets my friends uncle was a victim of this and he only just escaped death. The people are not braindead zombies who just believe what they are told and they are not all antiamerican but had to keep their mouths shut or suffer the horrific consequences. If u watch the news noone is blaming the army at all they are all in suppourt . this insurgency will not last because the population doesnt suppourt it

 

[ajpirzada]

i have heard that talibans are not lettin ppl leave mangora that is why army launched an operation in poechar instead of mangora...

 

[rokhanyousafzai]

i have heard that talibans are not lettin ppl leave mangora that is why army launched an operation in poechar instead of mangora...

i have heard the army have had to restrain because some areas have alot of civilian population so i think it mite be true but its hard to get independent verification have the army moved in to mingora town yet thats when we will know how hard the taliban have been hit

 

[ajpirzada]

54 militants, nine soldiers killed in offensive
Thursday, 14 May, 2009 | 06:16 PM PST |

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan army’s top spokesman said on Thursday 54 militants and nine security force personnel had been killed during operations in the northwest over the last 24 hours.

It is impossible to confirm death tolls independently, which previously added up to more than 750 dead militants since the military launched offensives against the Taliban in three northwest Pakistani districts.

‘In the last 24 hours, 54 miscreants, militants and terrorists have been killed in the operation in various parts,’ Major General Athar Abbas told a news conference in the capital.

‘Nine security personnel have also embraced shahadat (martyrdom),’ he added.

DAWN.COM | Pakistan | 54 militants, nine soldiers killed in offensive


its already gettin quite hard. we lost 4 soldiers yesterday while killing 11 militants. lost 9 today while killing 54. i can see mangora will be a big challenge

 

[rokhanyousafzai]

54 militants, nine soldiers killed in offensive
Thursday, 14 May, 2009 | 06:16 PM PST |

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan army’s top spokesman said on Thursday 54 militants and nine security force personnel had been killed during operations in the northwest over the last 24 hours.

It is impossible to confirm death tolls independently, which previously added up to more than 750 dead militants since the military launched offensives against the Taliban in three northwest Pakistani districts.

‘In the last 24 hours, 54 miscreants, militants and terrorists have been killed in the operation in various parts,’ Major General Athar Abbas told a news conference in the capital.

‘Nine security personnel have also embraced shahadat (martyrdom),’ he added.

DAWN.COM | Pakistan | 54 militants, nine soldiers killed in offensive


its already gettin quite hard. we lost 4 soldiers yesterday while killing 11 militants. lost 9 today while killing 54. i can see mangora will be a big challenge

urban will be our biggest challenge as it suits these light and mobile taliban fighters and houses will be very heavily mined so its will be tough hope losses are still minimal though

 

[ajpirzada]

urban will be our biggest challenge as it suits these light and mobile taliban fighters and houses will be very heavily mined so its will be tough hope losses are still minimal though

true. i can imagine army destroying many houses in mangora. wat do u think how long will it take army to get to mangora?? two weeks?