Operation Rah-e-Nijat (South Waziristan)

[ajpirzada]

^^that will be one diplomatic answer. lolz

 

[waraich66]

yes there is a remedy….

Remedy is a solid "Marshal Plan" as a back up to the military operation. Dangers are altogether apparent. We simply can not afford a long drawn guerrilla war like Kashmir, Afghanistan or even Algeria etc. I am afraid to say that Pakistan Army only knows to conduct kinetic operations, I have not seen any PsyOps or Info Ops conducted by PA. War in our own country with its own population is to an extant a novelty for Pakistanis. Lets hope this novelty remains a novelty and doesn't become a norm. The remedy is a Strategic Influence Campaign aimed to Strategically Influence the behaviour of the target market until the desired behaviour is endogenised.

This phenomenon is not new, it is not something that's never been done before. I am a Social Scientist and in my line of work we conduct tactical and strategic influence campaigns all the time, my job is to sell ideas to population, if they are already sold onto something different then we can change their behaviour and convert them into what we want them to be.

Kinetic actions are ALWAYS counter productive unless backed up properly, think of military operation as a surgery to remove a cancer now if this surgery is not followed up with chemotherapy and care not only that the cancer will continue to spread but the patient will develop further complications that were not present before such as infection. I think PA/GoP has a golden opportunity here to implement a Strategic Influence Campaign.

It can be looked at as a three stage programme , first stage is to disrupt the anomalous behaviour, second stage is to rectify the behaviour by removing the anomalies, third stage is to normalise the new behaviour.

First Stage:
The disruption stage has already started, Operation Rah-e-Nijat, the population in been mostly removed from the SWA and they are now living out of their natural environment and are susceptible to reprogramming without anyone to oppose to the rehabilitation.

Second Stage:
This is the most important stage. Unlike Swat, Mahsud population generally supported Taliban, here Taliban has the favourable environment to incubate so by just removing Taliban the situation will not roll back to good old days. Here population has been exposed to Taliban for the longest period of time.

In Second Stage Mahsuds will be subjected to a strong and well thought after rehabilitation programme to make sure that when they go back to SWA they do not let Taliban come back and also to deny them any favourable environment.

First objective should be to isolated the target population so that they are contained in an operable and defined area such as IDP camps. The programme should target all aspects of population, children should be targeted through schools and adult population targeted through Mosques and Opinion Formers like Ulema etc.

Programmers can design different narratives e.g.,

Taliban were Indian agents and here are the proofs in shape of Indian weapons ….

Taliban sold their own people to the Americans …..

BaitUllah Mehsud was CIA agent and CIA only killed him when they knew that he was going to die of kidney failure anyway just to show that CIA is not supporting Taliban ….

Taliban used to kill Ulema Akram here are the videos ……

Taliban had a lot of money given to them by India and CIA .. here is the proof…..

PA is only protecting the mother land … without Pakistan we will either be serving USA or India …without Pakistan we are nothing….

Taliban were part of Operation Blue Tulsi and their job was to destabilise Pakistan so that CIA could exploit the situation and send Xe into Pakistan…..

Look BLA has an office in Jerusalem … Israel is behind all these insurgencies …. lets unite and defeat the Jews at their own game…….

Mehsuds are a valuable asset to Pakistan and we need you so join us to defeat the common enemy India-USA-Israel ….

PA hated the war but its hands were forced by Taliban so lets get united and stop Taliban ….. We have forgotten so should you …. We are all brothers…..

These are very crude examples of course the messaging will be done very carefully and in subliminal ways like in che khanas, hotels, street corners where a person will tell his story that how he saw Taliban extorting money in ransom … or how did they used to receive money and weapons from RAW agents… denouncing of suicide bombing and killing of innocent people in Friday prayer sermons and categorically telling people that suicide bomber is a “Jahanami”.

This programme should continue for minimum of two to three years so that the change is thoroughly instilled and reinforced or in technical terms “when the desired behaviour is endogenised“. During this time the IDPs should be provided with employments within IDP camps specially the jobs related to the administration of the IDP camps and they should be deployed in areas where they can be given pieces of land which they can cultivate and earn their livelihood to some extant. First this will make them believe that they are empowered and that they are part of the programme rather then perceiving themselves as a target of a programme and second this will keep the cost of running these IDP camps low.



Third Stage:

SWA’s geopolitical environment should be re-engineered so that it does not reverse the new behaviour. First of all SWA should be completely cleaned of terrorists. It should be an easy task as the civilians will be in IDP camps and out of the way. Once the area is cleaned of terrorists, SWA should be turned into a “Settled Area” from Federally Administered Tribal Area, (FATA).

The area should be developed in a way that it is easy for GoP to maintain and control by building large PA cantonments that can back the administrative infrastructure that would initially be developed and run by IDPs in IDP camps.

IDPs in IDP camps would be divided into townships with names different to the towns in SWA (it is imperative that renaming reflect the local culture and language like Gull Abad, Musa Khail, Ler Kanday, Ber Kanday etc). Names of these new towns and new addresses should be amended in IDPs NICs to make the change permanent.

Population will be assessed and evaluated for repatriation and allocated to different townships and these townships will be classified according to their readiness for repatriation. IDP’s return to AWS will be done in phases or in other words townships that are ready for repatriation will be returned and those townships that are not ready for repatriation will be retained, using repatriation as an incentive for rehabilitation. Upon their return new towns will be developed on same names as started in IDP camps.

It is imperative that locals are COMPLETELY utilised in this reprogramming effort and NEVER made to feel isolated and targeted.

Implications

Main aspect of this reprogramming effort is Stage Two, it should be done in most pleasant way possible. First and Thrird Stage are of administrative nature and they should completely support, complement and supplement Second Stage of the programme. Second Stage will take a lot of reconciliatory efforts and should not be used as a revenge stage for those that are on margins. It should always be remembered that the very top of the TTP are sold to India and CIA the foot soldiers and mid level commanders are motivated by a vision and that is not a bad thing as such. We can not treat the foot soldiers as traitors. We shall always remember that a suicide bomber dose not kill himself for money, he only does it for spiritual/revenge reasons and any attempts to change these convictions by force will only reinforce them. Open rejection to programming should be anticipated and even welcomed as by doing so the programmer will allow those that need further work to surface and show themselves.

Now the one billion dollar question is “does PA or GoP has the required skills or relevant manpower to conduct these delicate influence campaigns? Ideally PA should do the First Stage and, to some extant, the Third Stage and GoP will conduct the Second. I think PA can certainly do its job but GoP is a lost cause when it comes to doing anything, specially something as delicate as this. So most probably Second Stage will also fall into PA’s lap for which they certainly do not have the skills neither manpower. But if it comes to it they can certainly acquire/develop it.

CIA has deep knowledge of conducting these campaigns but I will seriously doubt if they will lend support in sabotaging something that they have so painfully put together. Moreover the programming is highly technical and require a lot of skills and experience, a skilled programmer can programme a subject in whatever way he like and if PA bring in CIA’s programmers they can programme the population in ways that will suit them. For example the population can be programmed to react to certain external stimuli in particular ways. The population, after programming, will look peaceful and act peacefully until the time they receive that particular external stimulus and then they will either revert or react in way that the programmer would have programmed them to. Common example is hypnoses of an individual where individual can be hypnotised to react to certain stimuli. After hypnoses the subject will appear normal until he/she receives the stimuli and then the subject will react to the stimuli without knowing why he/she is acting in that way. To the subject his reaction is an action not a reaction. To the subject doing whatever he is programmed to do after receiving the stimuli will be the most natural course of action to take. Another example of programming done to masses through culture is “reaction to insulting remarks to one’s sister or mother” now a Pukhtun, after receiving this stimuli, is programmed to kill and feel good and justified of his action. Other cultures will also react to a varying degree and its all due to the fact that we are programmed to take a great insult to such remarks. It is not due to the animalistic instinct of “protection” as we very well know that a person yelling insults does not intend to do what he claims that he will do as “screw your sister” is different from “I swear by God that tonight I will come to your house and will rape your sister so she could not show her face in public again” latter is a threat, backed by a vow, with nature of action, time of action and its consequences where as the former is only an insult and is aimed to provoke us and yet we can not help not being provoked.

If we look at it we are all been programmed, through institutions like religion, culture etc. The resulting behaviour is more deep and can not be changed on mass level, at least not in few years. On individual level it can be changed but it still takes a lot of time and efforts. The other type of programming is done by certain course of events like a breakout of a war or in an individual’s case living in anomalous environment for prolonged time. These anomalous environments will influence masses or individual to act in ways that will be different to that had anomalous events not occurred. So the programmer will have to take into account the broader parameters and will work within those parameters not challenging the influences due to religion or culture but just carefully removing the influence of the anomaly, in our case the Talibanisation.

There is a problem with drafting external programmers. Programming techniques are often subliminal and subliminal stimuli is designed to work below the threshold of recognition hence invisible to the subject. So whatever a programmer does is not visible unless the observer/supervisor is more skilled then the programmer to be able to see the far reaching consequences of the programming regime and if one has the know how to supervise then why not train the programmers as well and have a foolproof programme.

I will like to hear from someone that knows anything or has been involved with PA’s Psyops or Info Operations. I can be contact me on Sangeenshah@gmail.com

Brother ,

I am not doctor but cancer patient normally not treated by surgery, cancer treated with only radiations and then Chemiothrapy, cure is depend on stage of cancer but servival rate always remain very low .

Real cancer is prevailling in our governance system which failed to supply blood (required resources to areas ie FATA,Cholistan,Thar,Balouchistan).
We need to remodel government structure and state law so that these people get equal share of national resources .

Army always developed to protect the country from any foriegn aggression , if army is involved in internal war its mean your government is failed .

First step will be change and remodelling in government structure , next step will be clean and required supply of resources and equal distribution to part of coiuntry and then involve local population in constructive activities to built and run the society by them self.

Tribel people always remain independent from many handred of years and have their own jirga system .

Al Qaeda have their own agenda and network all over the world , they have infected local tribel leaders who are not very much happy with government.

Only workable solution in tribel area is restoration of their jirga system and special grant and tax free system and implementation of shariah .

We should learn lesson from Afghanistan where these tribel are fighting from last eight years and may continue this war for many decade because they have their faith in their values and ready to die on their faith and independence , similarly Pakistan tribel have also right to decide their future and system of governance in line with islamic teachings.

In Pakistan we also need shariah laws and islamic financial and economic system , we should also take steps and try to flush western economical system which is more dangerous then cancer , so that we can live independently and lead and unit muslim ummah for which Pakistan was made.

 

[waraich66]

if u are statin the word 'impossible' then why blame the operation and call it 'not planned right'? planners did the best they can and according to u it was impossible for them to fill the escape routes. so this means i should blame the geography but not planners.

now taking into account ur assumption of 'impossible', should we stop fighting them and let them kill our people everyday? if we are on the right side then surely Allah's help will come sooner or later. nothing is impossible for Him or am i wrong here?

now either we are right or we are wrong and ur answer to this will tell us which side are u really supportin

War is not solution of every problem , Allah has given us wisdom , better strategy will be strenthen local tribes and flush these Al Qaeda fighters then government should make long term deal with these tribel who are peace full and patriot.

 

[Dr-Sangeen]

I have been contributing to this forum for almost two months now. During this i time i have fought with the sheer arrogance of the moderators and admins of this forum.

The final straw was when they closed my welcome thread, as some of my friends were posting there.

I asked them for a reason and the reply was and i quote " i shall consider myself lucky that it was allowed for that long..."

No I don't consider myself lucky at all, they shall consider themselves lucky that people, like myself, waste their time by posting on this web page.

As far as i am concern if my welcome thread is not good enough to be here then they don't deserve to have my other contributions to this forum either.

Hence i am withdrawing all my posts from this forum.

 

[Dr-Sangeen]

I have been contributing to this forum for almost two months now. During this i time i have fought with the sheer arrogance of the moderators and admins of this forum.

The final straw was when they closed my welcome thread, as some of my friends were posting there.

I asked them for a reason and the reply was and i quote " i shall consider myself lucky that it was allowed for that long..."

No I don't consider myself lucky at all, they shall consider themselves lucky that people, like myself, waste their time by posting on this web page.

As far as i am concern if my welcome thread is not good enough to be here then they don't deserve to have my other contributions to this forum either.

Hence i am withdrawing all my posts from this forum.

 

[air marshal]

Two schools blew up in Tehsil Landikotal, Khyber Agency

KHYBER AGENCY, Dec. 25 (APP): Unknown militants bombed two government schools in Tehsil Landikotal, Khyber Agency, acting Tehsildar Bismellah confirmed.According to Tehsil Dar Bismellah Government High Muhammad Khan Kheli and Government Middle School Abdul Latif Kheli in Tehsil Landikotal,Khyber Agency blew up by unknown miscreants with explosives in the midnight, damaging the buildings.There were no casualties because these facilities were empty at the time of explosion, he added.

He also disclosed that 18 persons of the Zaodin tribes have been kidnapped by the armed militants. He said some days earlier, the militants were trying to kidnap an elder of the tribe but the local people foiled the attempt, as a result of cross-fire the elder was killed but Zoadin tribes also killed one militant and injured two others.

In a response to foiling the kidnapping attempt and killing of militant, the Chaga militant kidnapped 18 persons of the Zaodin tribes and were shifted to unknown place, the political authorities also confirmed the kidnapping.

 

[air marshal]

Five killed as militant groups clash in Khyber
Saturday, 26 Dec, 2009

PESHAWAR: At least five people were killed and three others injured in an exchange of fire between militants from the Ansarul Islam and Lashkar-i-Islam organisations in the Khyber agency, DawnNews reported.

According to official sources, armed supporters of the two groups had taken positions and were using heavy weapons in order to target rival hideouts in the Tirrah Valley.

At least two houses were also destroyed in the clashes. Hundreds have been killed in bloody clashes between the two groups in the past five years.

Meanwhile, in Mohmand, four militants were killed and seven others injured during an exchange of fire with security forces in the Safi tehsil.

- DawnNews

 

[air marshal]

Troops secure strategic area on Khyber-Orakzai border
Saturday, 26 Dec, 2009

PESHAWAR: Security forces took over the strategic Chapri Ferozkhel area on the border of the Orakzai and Khyber agencies.

Troops had launched an offensive from two sides on militant strongholds inside the Orakzai tribal region.

The air and ground offensive was launched from the Hangu and Kurram agencies, resulting in the taking over of the strategic area.

Security forces say the area served as the main supply and travel route for militants, who then carried out terrorist activities across the NWFP.

Important routes leading to Darra Adamkhel, Tirrah Valley and Orakzai were also cleared.

These routes were used by militants involved in suicide attacks and car bomb explosions.

- DawnNews

 

[waraich66]

My friend.... My dear dear friend

Surgery IS certainty used in cancer treatment, limbs are amputated through surgery and cancerous tumours are also removed through surgery.... but that was not the main point.

Of course system is to blame... of course the mismanagement of GoP is to blame but i was not talking about the 60 or so years on Pakistani history. I am ONLY talking about Operation Rah-e-Nijat and how to deal with Talibanisation AFTER the completion of this operation.

I am all up for Shariah, but whose Shariah are we talking about.. Fazal Ur Rehman's Shariah? Malvi Fazal Ullah's Shariah? who does not even agree with his own father in law Sufi Muhammed, or Hakeem Ullah's Shariah? If you ask them you will find as many Shariahs as many groups you will ask or may be more if you ask any of the groups TWICE.

My friend Shariah is the only way forward i agree i will not be a Muslim if i say anything different to this. But in this day and age we have to keep our eyes open and see that who is making what demands. TTP is a RAW and CIA backed group they will make anything an excuse to wage the war.

The day Naik Muhammed made peace with PA the very next day CIA blew him up. Bait Ullah was fully working for them but they only killed him as he was about to die anyway due to his kidney failure and his killing gave an excuse to TTP and CIA that are not working together. Watch the recent interviews of TTP cadre they are furiously denying the common belief that TTP is receiving money and arms from CIA and RAW. It goes to show that if it pinches them then there must be some truth in it.

Most of the CIA attacks a mere provocation attempts to increase the popularity of TTP. Problem my friend is that its not only TTP that is involved in it. Our dear president Asif Ali Zerdari and his henchmen are also busy setting fire to this house of ours.

As far as what history says .... i need not to know the history as 1, history lessons are for weak and feeble i will rather make history then simply reading it. 2, i am one of them and i know it all too well what is OUR history.

Shariah is the ultimate solution but it should not be forced down someone's throat. Faith-e-Makkah is the example that we need to follow.

i know my posts are often long but please try reading them and understanding them.

Yes , i suggest you try to focus on root cause of problem , we should learn lesson from our past experiences in Bangladesh , politician did mistakes and nation not raised voice against wrong decision of politician as result Pakistan divided into two parts.

We are not trying to resolve the issues through dialogues also political parties and media are not playing their role .Army has done what it could do , now tell me how the peace or any political system can be forced through gun with out will of people in FATA?

 

[ajpirzada]

War is not solution of every problem , Allah has given us wisdom , better strategy will be strenthen local tribes and flush these Al Qaeda fighters then government should make long term deal with these tribel who are peace full and patriot.

ok lets stop the war. now how do u plan to strengthen the tribes without weakenin these TTP? didnt TTP kill all the tribal leaders? didnt we see the same in swat where TTP killed all the tribal leaders? local people only picked up arms against them when army weakened these TTP. similar will have to happen in tribal areas.
ur policy of strengthenin the tribes without weakenin the TTP is flawed

 

[fatman17]

It means practically it is impossible for army to block their escape routes , now they are hidding and making new stronge holds in Kurram,Orkzai,Wana and near Afghan boarder.After winter they will try to recapture Makeen,Razmak,Saragoha,Ladha.

It will be a long term gurrilla war may continue for many decades

with what? - their hand-held weapons - they have left behind their heavy weapons and ammo dumps (which have either been destroyed or used against them) - their total infrastructure destroyed. the best they can do (and will do) is mount hit-and-run tactics for which the army will be ready. the other thing they will conduct is their cowardly suicide attacks.

yes i agree it will take a while but not decades - the local population is not going to be coerced to support them.

 

[fatman17]

TTP seeks to avenge leader’s death

LAHORE: The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has formed a group to avenge the death of their commander Ilyas Abufraz who was killed in an operation, sources said. The group, codenamed Mujahid Abufraz, has been assigned to carry out terrorist activities in Rawalpindi, Multan, Gujranwala, Karachi, Quetta, and Dera Ismail Khan during Muharram. According to a circular issued by the Criminal Investigation Department (CID) to the regional police officers, TTP leader Qari Hussain Mehmood has formed a group of four terrorists to avenge the death of Abufraz. Security has been put on high alert following the report.

aaj kal report

 

[fatman17]

TTP propaganda

Dawn Editorial

Friday, 25 Dec, 2009

Why would Waliur Rehman (L) try to interpose the TTP into the militants fighting in Afghanistan? The answer seems to lie in attempting to re-position the TTP as a force fighting a ‘legitimate’ war against a foreign enemy.

the kingpin of militants in South Waziristan, has emerged from hiding to make some bold claims. ‘Thousands’ of the TTP’s men have been sent to Afghanistan to fight the American-led foreign forces, according to Rehman, while the TTP has 2,500 trained suicide bombers ready to strike ‘anywhere’ in Pakistan. Truth or propaganda? Given what is known about the TTP, it would appear to be the latter.



In recent times, the Afghan Taliban have gone to some length to dissociate themselves from the TTP. Mullah Omar himself is believed to have rejected the TTP’s militant activities inside Pakistan and expressed displeasure about the attacks against places of worship and civilian targets. Indeed, some among the Afghan Taliban have even gone to the extent of dropping the ‘Taliban’ appellation in a bid to distinguish themselves from their Pakistani ‘counterparts’. So why would Waliur Rehman try to interpose the TTP into the militants fighting in Afghanistan? The answer seems to lie in attempting to re-position the TTP as a force fighting a ‘legitimate’ war against a foreign enemy. And since the Pakistani state is supporting the ‘enemy’, the TTP is probably seeking to justify its increasingly unpopular war inside Pakistan by resorting to that old canard that a friend of the enemy is also an enemy.



Regarding the claim of several thousand suicide bombers waiting to be dispatched, the TTP is almost certainly trying to alarm the public here and in doing so to put pressure on the state to call off its military operations. Without a doubt the almost daily suicide attacks are an indication that the TTP really does have a significant number of suicide bombers ready to be deployed. But grim as that threat may be, events since Operation Rah-i-Nijat in South Waziristan suggest that Waliur Rehman was exaggerating by an order of magnitude the size of the ‘army’ of suicide bombers at the TTP’s disposal.



However, while Rehman may well have been spewing propaganda to recover the TTP’s lost standing and put the state under fresh pressure, there is real cause for alarm for another reason. How did Rehman and the TTP spokesman Azam Tariq find it possible to arrange a meeting with media personnel? The TTP’s centre of gravity in South Waziristan may well be no more, but the army has had virtually no success in eliminating or capturing the top-tier leadership. Poor intelligence-gathering has been blamed for that glaring shortcoming, but if Waliur Rehman’s ‘press conference’ is anything to go by, the situation is still dire on that front.

 

[pakdefender]

It means practically it is impossible for army to block their escape routes , now they are hidding and making new stronge holds in Kurram,Orkzai,Wana and near Afghan boarder.After winter they will try to recapture Makeen,Razmak,Saragoha,Ladha.

It will be a long term gurrilla war may continue for many decades

In order to quickly end the misery of these sub-human monkies there is a need to deploy Tank and Artillary 'Flechette Shells'.

A Flechette Shell has thousands of steel Flechettes.

These are packed tightly in a Tank or Artillary Shell and when fired the shell explodes in the air and releases thousands of metal darts 37.5 mm in length, which disperse in a conical arch three hundred meters long and about ninety meters wide.

The advantage of tank fired Flechette shells is that they penetrate thick vegetation and cover very large areas , effectively like a 'wall of bullets'. Also if the enemy is hiding and their rough position is know Flechette Shells can be very effective in eliminating enemies.

These should be deployed on all areas taken from militants so that when these bastards try to do their antics one tank or artilliary shell with flechettes will make mince meat of 100s of them.

 

[ajpirzada]

Troops secure strategic area on Khyber-Orakzai border

Saturday, 26 Dec, 2009

PESHAWAR: Security forces took over the strategic Chapri Ferozkhel area on the border of the Orakzai and Khyber agencies.

Troops had launched an offensive from two sides on militant strongholds inside the Orakzai tribal region.

The air and ground offensive was launched from the Hangu and Kurram agencies, resulting in the taking over of the strategic area.

Security forces say the area served as the main supply and travel route for militants, who then carried out terrorist activities across the NWFP.

Important routes leading to Darra Adamkhel, Tirrah Valley and Orakzai were also cleared.

These routes were used by militants involved in suicide attacks and car bomb explosions. — DawnNews

DAWN.COM | Pakistan | Troops secure strategic area on Khyber-Orakzai border