waraich66
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Here you go again Fundamentalist. Talking about something you know nothing about. Here are some the prerequisites for a successful guerrilla Campaign.
1. Popular support. Support can be passive or active. It is not necessary that the entire population actively support an insurgency, but the majority of the population must passively support it. During the Soviet invasion there was wide support. Something the Taliban lack now.
2. Unity of effort. The overall thrust of an insurgent movement must provide a strength of unity that dedicates those involved to achieving the same goal.
3. Will to resist. It is not enough for the population to resist their government passively; at least a portion must be willing to resist actively.
4. Leadership. The activities and effort of the insurgent movement must be properly directed through the exercise of effective leadership.
5. Discipline. The aspect of the movement must be strongly maintained to ensure security and obedience.
6. Intelligence. Because the insurgent movement is usually inferior in numbers and combat power in relation to government forces, the intelligence effort must provide security for the insurgent organization and information to conduct successful operations.
7. Propaganda. It is used to gain popular support and intensify the populace's dissatisfaction with the government.
8. Favorable environment. This includes attitudes of the people, the political environment, and the economic situation.
9. External support. The preceding eight conditions are theoretically the only ones that an insurgency must have to succeed. Historically, however, there seems to be one additional condition that must exist the condition of external support. This support may be physical or psychological. Examples of physical external support are equipment, weapons, supplies, ammunition, sanctuaries, personnel, and combat units. Examples of psychological external support include the political support given to the resistance when a country recognizes that movement in the world arena and the pressure a government might exert politically or economically to influence world opinion in favor of the movement.
In the interest of time (it's 4am here) I will not go much into counter insurgency at this time. It is a broad topic that can take up a whole page of it's own. I will say though that the U.S. has vast first hand experience in fighting a counter insurgency campaign. The thousands of Taliban that have died since they were driven from power attest to that fact. And with the U.S. being able to divert attention from Iraq to Afghanistan more and more. Expect a marked increase in Taliban deaths.
However there is always much to learn. Anyone that's says they know it all are fools. However one of the keys to a good counter insurgency campaign. Is to always be teachable and willing to change tactics depending on the situation. As with any protracted war though mistakes will happen. The question is do you learn from them.
All your prerequisite covered in my three points ,
1. Environment -conducive envirinment is big for talaban ,location,local population,language support,communication,availability of weapons ,weather conditions.
2.Congo(Fighting spirit) Their moral is very high ,fight for home land and Islam is desire of every muslim,ready for extreme sacrifices dont care of casualities, fighting without to gain material benfits to gain will of Allah only.
3. Experience-They are at war from last 30 years , well aware of ISAF tactics and trained for Gurrilla war strategy .Their organisational structure is also better under , they are one man cammand from last nine years ,they dont change their cammander frequently. ISAF changed their cammanders frequently.They have lighter weapons and advantage of speedy movement .They have also strategic depth from all sides because Afghanistan is land lock country all bouders are open for them .
Your analysis about lacking of talaban is not correct because ISAF desired result are not achieved in nine years.
Problem is not with your Generals, they know very well that they already lost this war , problem is with your political leadership majority (80% of them are anti Talaban because of their faith and friendship with OBL and they are elected by Zoinist lobby support .Your president is also speaking their language that Afghan war is necessity not choice.
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