OECD latest economy growth and inflation projection 2022/2023

[Indos]

Venezuela returns to global oil stage, as US lifts sanctions amid world’s energy crunch​

 

[Indos]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1620235433937629185

https://twitter.com/x/status/1620232909725798401

 

[Indos]

IMF Raises 2023 Global GDP Growth Forecast​

 

[Indos]

IMF seems reluctant to explain their forecast in ASEAN which shows downgrade growth despite they project China GDP growth is better than their October projection. Fishy analyst I would say.....Better we see what happen in the next few days as ASEAN countries will shows their real GDP growth for Q4 2022.

The projection should wait Q4 2022 data rather than rushing showing the projection in the end of January.

Indonesia is downgraded into 4.8 % from 5 % projection in October 2022

Indonesia and the IMF

This web page provides information on official IMF reports and Executive Board documents in English that deal with Indonesia.

www.imf.org

 

[Indos]

Fed Chair Powell: The full effects of rapid tightening are yet to be felt​

 

[Indos]

Global factory activity contracts again in January 2023, highlighting fragile recovery​

Manufacturing activity across the United States, Europe, and Asia contracted again last month, underscoring the fragility of the global economic recovery, although factories in the eurozone at least may have passed the trough, surveys showed on Wednesday, February 1.

The latest figures come as central bankers gear up for another round of interest rate increases to combat high inflation. The US Federal Reserve hiked borrowing costs by 25 basis points on Wednesday while the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are both expected to add 50 bps on Thursday, February 2.

The Fed’s fastest interest rate-hiking cycle since the 1980s has stifled demand for goods, which are mostly bought on credit. US manufacturing sunk further in January with the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reporting its manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropped to 47.4 from 48.4 in December.

The third straight monthly contraction pushed the index to the lowest level since May 2020 and below the 48.7 mark viewed as consistent with a recession in the broader economy. A PMI reading below 50 indicates contraction in manufacturing, which accounts for 11.3% of the US economy.

The dollar’s past appreciation against the currencies of the United States’ main trade partners and a softening in global demand are also hurting manufacturing in the world’s largest economy.

“It looks like we will continue to see headline contraction in the manufacturing sector for several more months, at a minimum,” said economists at Jefferies in a note to clients following the survey’s release.

But the combination of better supply and ebbing demand has resulted in a significant slowdown in consumer and wholesale inflation, with outright declines in monthly goods prices.
Despite demand being under pressure, US factories are also holding onto their workers, for now. The ISM survey’s measure of factory employment dipped marginally to 50.6 from 50.8 in December.

Eurozone rebound, Asian strain​

Elsewhere, price pressures slackened and a fall in demand moderated in the 20 countries sharing the euro, driving a surge in optimism. The eurozone eked out growth in the final three months of 2022, managing to avoid a recession, official data showed on Tuesday, January 31.
S&P Global’s eurozone final manufacturing PMI climbed to a five-month high of 48.8 in January from December’s 47.8, in line with a preliminary reading but still below the 50 mark separating growth from contraction.

“We think in general the worst is now past for both inflation and the activity front. The activity is not softening, it is going back up, so expectations are for a rebound,” said Mateusz Urban, a senior economist at Oxford Economics.


Manufacturers in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, started 2023 with a slightly brighter outlook on the year ahead despite demand continuing to fall as inflation and supply chain problems eased.

In France, the bloc’s second biggest economy, factory activity returned to growth albeit not as strongly as initially forecast.

But British manufacturing business shrank for a sixth month in a row in January, kicking off a tough 2023 when the country’s economy looks set to fall into a recession.

Easing price pressures will however be welcomed by central bank policymakers. Soaring inflation – initially described as transient – has proved far more sticky than thought and prompted aggressive monetary tightening.

Eurozone inflation eased for the third straight month in January but relief may be limited as underlying price growth held steady, official data showed on Wednesday.
In Asia, factory activity contracted in January as the boost from China’s COVID reopening had yet to take full effect.

China’s factory activity shrank more slowly in January after Beijing lifted tough COVID curbs late last year, a private sector survey showed.

China’s Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing (PMI) nudged up to 49.2 in January from 49.0 in December, staying below the 50 mark for a sixth straight month.

The data contrasted with a better-than-expected official PMI survey issued on Tuesday. But whereas the official PMI largely focuses on big and state-owned Chinese businesses, the Caixin survey centers on small firms and coastal regions.

Softening input-price pressures also offered initial positive signs for Asia, with the pace of contraction in output slowing in Japan and South Korea, the surveys showed.
But there is uncertainty about whether the region can weather the hit from slowing global demand and stubbornly high inflation.

“The worst of Asia’s downturn is behind, but the outlook is clouded by weaknesses in major export destinations like the United States and Europe,” said Toru Nishihama, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo.

Factory activity expanded in January in Indonesia and the Philippines but shrank in Malaysia and Taiwan, PMI surveys showed. India’s manufacturing industry started the year on a weaker note, expanding at the slowest pace in three months.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday slightly raised its 2023 global growth outlook on “surprisingly resilient” demand in the United States and Europe and the reopening of China’s economy after Beijing abandoned its strict pandemic controls.

But the IMF said global growth would still slow to 2.9% in 2023 from 3.4% in 2022, and it warned the world could easily tip into recession. – Rappler.com

Global factory activity contracts again in January 2023, highlighting fragile recovery

United States manufacturing sinks further but factories are holding onto their workers, for now

www.rappler.com

 

[casual]

IMF seems reluctant to explain their forecast in ASEAN which shows downgrade growth despite they project China GDP growth is better than their October projection. Fishy analyst I would say.....Better we see what happen in the next few days as ASEAN countries will shows their real GDP growth for Q4 2022.

The projection should wait Q4 2022 data rather than rushing showing the projection in the end of January.

Indonesia is downgraded into 4.8 % from 5 % projection in October 2022

View attachment 914209

Indonesia and the IMF

This web page provides information on official IMF reports and Executive Board documents in English that deal with Indonesia.

www.imf.org

IMF projections were never accurate. China's growth beat should lift economies across Asia though the risk is if US feds decide to increase interest rates further

 

[Indos]

IMF projections were never accurate. China's growth beat should lift economies across Asia though the risk is if US feds decide to increase interest rates further

Correct, many times they need many correction. They are so hype about India since 2021 and we can see their biggest correction is India. This sudden projection I believe is related to Adani stock plung and they need to increase confident on Indian economy and decrease its competitor which is ASEAN where its overall economy is still higher than India in nominal GDP. China economy growth has more positive relation with ASEAN countries and ASEAN countries is already biggest China trade partner, surpassing USA.

 

[Indos]

Singapore attracts S$22.5b in fixed asset investments in 2022​

 

[xuxu1457]

When China has been developing rapidly for a long time, the inflation rate has been maintained at about 2%.
India, Turkey and some other countries had very high inflation rates when they were growing faster.

 

[beijingwalker]

Where will the global GDP growth come from in 2023?

Almost 90% from developing nations! Only 10% from advanced economies. China leads the chart with 40%, with India coming in second at 10%. The US and EU combined will contribute only 10% to the growth of world's economy.

 

[Mista]

When China has been developing rapidly for a long time, the inflation rate has been maintained at about 2%.

One limitation of using CPI to measure inflation is that it uses rental expense to measure for changes in accomodation prices, which may be less suitable for countries with high home ownership rate like China. CPI doesn't measure the increase in accomodation costs due to the increase in house prices.

 

[Indos]

Vietnam to hike electricity prices for first time in four years amid global energy crisis​

 

[Indos]

I still predict Indonesia can grow at 5.2 - 5.5 % in 2023. Minimum salary will be raised 10 % next year as government has already stated, this will boost spending of households. I predict Indonesia investment and export will likely keep growing in 2023 at relatively the same growth like this year.

Lower energy prices in Indonesia will make our industry more competitive thus export like steel will likely keep growing amid global economic slow down. This also will likely make more FDI to come beside the fact that Indonesia is not having energy crisis at all even we have surplus of electricity until 2027. Better infrastructure will also likely help the growth of our investment next year.

Commodity prices will likely keep at higher price due to possible relaxation of China zero covid policy and India economy that I predict will keep growing at 4.5-5.5 % next year.

India’s GDP growth slows down to 4.4% in October-December quarter​

​

By: Express Web Desk
New Delhi | Updated: February 28, 2023 17:55 IST

Manufacturing pulls down India’s GDP growth to 4.4%

High frequency indicators like vehicle sales, PMI show growth, says CEA.

indianexpress.com

 

[Indos]

The world's fastest-growing major economy is headed for turbulence

To meet its annual growth target of 7%, India must grow at least by 5.1% in the March quarter

qz.com