October Surprise: my prediction for war

[tower9]

The best period for China to take Taiwan was before the end of the Korean war(the US had no obligations towards Taiwan back then and they were still trying to court China to their camp.). However , unfortunately for them I'm not sure they had the capabilities back then and Mao choosing to enter the Korean war (instead of focusing on Taiwan)set the U.S /China on war part and solidified US position towards Taiwan, hence the U.S /Taiwan defence treaty which was signed in 1954 immediately after the end of the Korean war .
However today it's far more risky to make such a move. So i believe the Chinese will keep waiting until they have reached a developed/high income country status and become strong enough that the US won't dare intervene for Taiwan. The Chinese leadership don't want anything now that can derail the country's economic development and prosperity. War against Taiwan will be the worse strategic blunder they can do at this moment. They can fight a war outside their neighbourhood no problem(like in Syria with Russia), but any war in their neighbourhood will be a mistake FOR NOW. They need at least a decade or two to start think of such a thing.

100% Truth

 

[LeGenD]

China is best waiting as it's military power is growing stronger relative to US every year.

This might be the impression in Public discourses but WE cannot be sure about this. American military advances have taken a more concealed course lately and even minor leaks in the Public domain suggest remarkable gains from current level of capabilities which are still a decade ahead than closest competition on many counts.

American war-machine will completely transform in the 2030s period. This is obvious given the scale of R&D and defense budget allocated for the needful.

The best period for China to take Taiwan was before the end of the Korean war(the US had no obligations towards Taiwan back then and they were still trying to court China to their camp.). However , unfortunately for them I'm not sure they had the capabilities back then and Mao choosing to enter the Korean war (instead of focusing on Taiwan)set the U.S /China on war part and solidified US position towards Taiwan, hence the U.S /Taiwan defence treaty which was signed in 1954 immediately after the end of the Korean war .
However today it's far more risky to make such a move. So i believe the Chinese will keep waiting until they have reached a developed/high income country status and become strong enough that the US won't dare intervene for Taiwan. The Chinese leadership don't want anything now that can derail the country's economic development and prosperity. War against Taiwan will be the worse strategic blunder they can do at this moment. They can fight a war outside their neighbourhood no problem(like in Syria with Russia), but any war in their neighbourhood will be a mistake FOR NOW. They need at least a decade or two to start think of such a thing.

War-fighting capabilities are evolving over time with emergence of new types of weapon systems - Americans are not sitting idle on this front.

I do not think that it is good idea to continue to wait that long. Much can happen in coming years.

Going through USA to take over Taiwan would be the biggest mistake IMHO.

However, up to China to decide.

 

[mike2000 is back]

War-fighting capabilities are evolving over time with emergence of new types of weapon systems - Americans are not sitting idle on this front.

I do not think that it is good idea to continue to wait that long. Much can happen in coming years.

Going through USA to take over Taiwan would be the biggest mistake IMHO.

However, up to China to decide.

LOL I'm not saying they will overtake the US militarily during that period, since i know the U.S isn't staying idle either. . I'm just saying by a few decade or two from now( that's assuming they keep growing at a healthy pace, since we never know what can happen tomorrow much less years from now) then quite a few of their new military systems would have matured by then and they would definitely be in a better shape than now. So they might stand a better chance by then.

 

[UKBengali]

LOL I'm not saying they will overtake the US militarily during that period, since i know the U.S isn't staying idle either. . I'm just saying by a few decade or two from now( that's assuming they keep growing at a healthy pace, since we never know what can happen tomorrow much less years from now) then quite a few of their new military systems would have matured by then and they would definitely be in a better shape than now. So they might stand a better chance by then.

It stands to logic that Chinese military technology will slowly catch up with the US over the decades to come. China has a massive and growing economy and very talented scientists and engineers to propel it's military technology forward.


There is no precedent in history of anything otherwise as the one catching up always can learn from the leader in one way or another.

As an example, the US gave away the shaping of stealth planes to minimise radar returns. It is estimated that 80% of stealth comes from shaping and the rest from materials in the airframe.

All China had to do with J-20 is copy these shaping priclnciples but has had to come up with their own materials for the airframe from scratch.

I actually think that even as early as 2030, US ability to protect Taiwan from Chinese invasion may come into question. By 2040 China is likely to have the upper hand.

For China to attack now when they are certain to lose if the US intervened is the height of folly. Better they wait as the military balance will slowly turn in their favour.

 

[Figaro]

..because you always mid-air refuel to top up your tanks before every mission even when you are flying over your own country. Why? because take off at near MTOW consumes a lot of fuel...because you need to carter to bingo fuel which accounts for emergency divert and fuel leaks..from enemy action...

and most importantly you need mid-air refueling for contingencies such as unexpected enemy action or exploiting time sensitive targets of opportunity

For US forces coordinating large forces is pretty much muscle memory,
..red flag waiving is optional..

Not when dozens of air bases are literally less than 200 miles away from strike points in Taiwan ...

 

[F-22Raptor]

US Presidential Elections will not stop US action if that is what the US really wants.

China is best waiting as it's military power is growing stronger relative to US every year.

That was probably an accurate assessment 3-5 years ago, but not currently or into the next decade.

The US military has just begun a massive modernization effort. You simply haven’t been paying attention.

 

[LeGenD]

LOL I'm not saying they will overtake the US militarily during that period, since i know the U.S isn't staying idle either. . I'm just saying by a few decade or two from now( that's assuming they keep growing at a healthy pace, since we never know what can happen tomorrow much less years from now) then quite a few of their new military systems would have matured by then and they would definitely be in a better shape than now. So they might stand a better chance by then.

My contention is that China is much more likely to succeed in capturing Taiwan in the absence of American intervention than otherwise. If USA decide to intervene in this conflict than it becomes pointless to begin with.

USA is less likely to intervene for Taiwan for as long as it see value in its relationship with China. This might change in the coming years. There are already signs of de-coupling in effect.

 

[F-22Raptor]

US advancement in ground launched long range precision fires and hypersonic weaponry over the next 5-10 years alone will make it near impossible for China to conduct a successful invasion of Taiwan. It’s better for China to strike now than in the future.

 

[F-22Raptor]

The US will begin integrating air launched hypersonic weapons on B-1/B-52 bombers within the next 2 years. China does NOT have the capability to counter that. It only gets harder from here for China.

 

[UKBengali]

US advancement in ground launched long range precision fires and hypersonic weaponry over the next 5-10 years alone will make it near impossible for China to conduct a successful invasion of Taiwan. It’s better for China to strike now than in the future.

China is certain to lose now.

 

[LeGenD]

It stands to logic that Chinese military technology will slowly catch up with the US over the decades to come. China has a massive and growing economy and very talented scientists and engineers to propel it's military technology forward.


There is no precedent in history of anything otherwise as the one catching up always can learn from the leader in one way or another.

Chinese had enjoyed unprecedented access to American centers of learning and technologies through the years - much could be learned and replicated in due course. It was easy to catch-up under these circumstances.

Now that the Americans are adopting measures to curb the aforementioned, Chinese will have to develop their own solutions to cope with emerging challenges and more. I am sure that the Chinese can chart their own course to glory (talented people on average) but they might come up with radically different approaches to fulfill their needs much like USSR had been doing.

Let us see.

As an example, the US gave away the shaping of stealth planes to minimise radar returns. It is estimated that 80% of stealth comes from shaping and the rest from materials in the airframe.

All China had to do with J-20 is copy these shaping priclnciples but has had to come up with their own materials for the airframe from scratch.

Complex mathematical equations coupled with computing advances to process and analyze radar returns to mitigate RCS reflectivity inform and/or serve as the basis for VLO compliant geometric shaping in theory which in turn is physically constructed using enabling stealthy applications to achieve VLO results. This is CLASSIFIED domain of work in large part.

The Mathematics of Stealth

The Mathematics of Stealth

maths.mq.edu.au

Although, crucial documents can be sourced through espionage at times, implementation challenges come into play next. Prerequisite infrastructure including tooling facilities should be in place for the needful.

There are reasons as to why F-22A Raptor could not be CLONED by another country - both Russia and China came up with their own respective designs lately. Although, China is doing much better than Russia in this matter. However, China is still coming up with relatively different designs than others.

I actually think that even as early as 2030, US ability to protect Taiwan from Chinese invasion may come into question. By 2040 China is likely to have the upper hand.

For China to attack now when they are certain to lose if the US intervened is the height of folly. Better they wait as the military balance will slowly turn in their favour.

REPEAT - This might be the impression in Public discourses but WE cannot be sure about this. American military advances have taken a more concealed course lately and even minor leaks in the Public domain suggest remarkable gains from current level of capabilities which are still a decade ahead than closest competition on many counts.

There are political considerations in this matter. USA is less likely to intervene for Taiwan for as long as it see value in its relationship with China. This might change in the coming years. There are already signs of de-coupling in effect.

 

[UKBengali]

@LeGenD

To add of course you also need to be able to manufacture the stealth airframe and the UK gained this experience from making machines to build the rear fuselage, tail planes and fins for the F-35.

Russia is rubbish at 5th gen and we see this in the SU-57 and it looks like they just made a less RCS SU-27.

It is speculated that one of the main factors influencing the design of the J-20 was the engine, at least initially, would not be as powerful as F-22 and they wanted a long range plane more suited to the distances of the Pacific. Remember F-22 was designed to fight Soviet fighters over central Europe mainly and so no surprise F-22 and J-20 look vastly different.

 

[CIA Mole]

america's military had a century worth of build up, chinese GDP rose over $10 trillion for a few years, US had much more accumulation over time.

 

[UKBengali]

america's military had a century worth of build up, chinese GDP rose over $10 trillion for a few years, US had much more accumulation over time.

Yes it take China till 2050 to match US military power if it really wanted to get to that goal.

 

[j20blackdragon]

1. since when has the PLAAF 150 bomber? All known numbers are much lower. Ergo ... the wole calculation of 900 ALCMs is WRONG!

I feel like I am undercounting when I say 150.

We have 5 confirmed PLAAF "regiments" with H-6K and H-6N.

We have 2 confirmed PLAN "regiments" with H-6J.

You do the math.

I didn't even bother to count the older bombers like H-6M, which we know can carry at least 2 large ALCMs.

So stop playing dumb Deino. I know you like to fish for information because it is your JOB. But your tricks won't work on me.