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October Surprise: my prediction for war

Just watch the conflict between Turkey and Greece.

It will be rolled into the greatest war in entire history of mankind.
 
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China have a serious smoking problem. China is 3rd in the world for smoking sales and smoking related health related issues, including deaths. If China cannot handle this small problem, how can you expect us to believe China can take on US, or even Taiwan, in a war?

Do you see how stupid that sounds? That is YOUR line of argument.

Coronavirus is not the only crisis the US has failed to respond to though. And you are absolutely right: China has too much on it's plate domestically to conduct foreign military adventures. Any conflict involving China would be one imposed on it, not one of choice.
 
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Mike Tyson armed with B-2, F-22, Burke destroyers and so many hi tech muscles way more advanced than what North Korea has is cowering somewhere in the corner. US with so much war experiences still at war up to this day while North Korea has not fought a war since 1953. US lied about WMD in Iraq had no problem invading it, has said it many times it cannot tolerate and accept a nuclear North Korea but scared to invade. Dodging the question is of no use because my reasoning is valid and straight to the point whereas those brain dead people are dodging with all sorts of bad excuses. The US is just a garbage superpower, overrated and many fools are trying to defend the US fake supremacy image by belittling China. It is so stupid it is not even funny.
 
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Mike Tyson armed with B-2, F-22, Burke destroyers and so many hi tech muscles way more advanced than what North Korea has is cowering somewhere in the corner. US with so much war experiences still at war up to this day while North Korea has not fought a war since 1953. US lied about WMD in Iraq had no problem invading it, has said it many times it cannot tolerate and accept a nuclear North Korea but scared to invade. Dodging the question is of no use because my reasoning is valid and straight to the point whereas those brain dead people are dodging with all sorts of bad excuses. The US is just a garbage superpower, overrated and many fools are trying to defend the US fake supremacy image by belittling China. It is so stupid it is not even funny.


The US is not "scared" to invade N Korea.

It is not that irresponsible that it would risk large-scale destruction in NE Asia to invade a potty little dictatorship.

If the US invades N Korea, no harm would come to US mainland as any nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles fired at US would most likely be intercepted but there is no guarantee that nuclear missiles would not land on cities in S Korea and Japan, killing millions of people.

The fact that even Trump did not invade N Korea shows that deep down he is a somewhat responsible person.
 
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Taiwan media has confirmed it: Jared Kushner will visit Taiwan in October!
 
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Deployment of US forces to Taiwan means war: Global Times editorial


Military Review, the professional bimonthly journal of the US Army, in its latest issue published a series of articles on the so-called China's armed invasion of Taiwan. A US Marine Corps captain in his article called for returning the US forces to Taiwan, and another article suggests providing a corps of "two-to-four divisions... against the PLA bridgeheads" and "dispatching an Army heavy corps to Taiwan."

These articles have triggered a strong response in the island of Taiwan, and the Taiwan secessionist forces have been greatly encouraged. However, some have pointed out that it is unlikely the US military will publicly deploy in Taiwan.

Such discussions in a US military magazine can be regarded as a public opinion war against China. The US is trying to open up new space for the US strategy to exert pressure on China. If the US military does what the magazine has suggested, it not only means the complete end of the US' one-China policy, but will also mean a blatant challenge to China's sovereignty.

The release of such information seems to be carried away. The US and the island of Taiwan must give up all illusions about the redeployment of US troops in Taiwan, because it means nothing but war. The Anti-Secession Law outlined three conditions that would compel China to use force. The second condition is "the development of major incidents that involve the independence of Taiwan from the mainland," and the third condition is "the exhaustion of all options to reach a deal on the peaceful reunification." The redeployment of US troops in Taiwan meets the two conditions. We believe that the PLA will inevitably take military actions to start a just war to liberate Taiwan.

The US now wants to shape the Taiwan Straits as the main front to prevent China's rise, because the Democratic Progress Party (DPP) authorities in Taiwan have completely turned to the US, and thus can be used as a tool. We must warn the DPP authorities not to wrongly believe that US support is safe for them to split China without being punished.

PLA fighter jets recently crossed the so-called middle line of the Taiwan Straits on a large scale, clearly drawing the red line that the US and Taiwan must not further collude. The Global Times has understood that PLA fighter jets were as closest as only seconds away from the coast of Taiwan. They were only one step away from flying over the island of Taiwan.

The Global Times has predicted several times that the PLA fighter jets will fly over the island of Taiwan. The mainland would like to warn the Taiwan authorities that if the US and Taiwan continue to collude, this scenario would be bound to take place. If the Taiwan authorities still believe that the US and Taiwan can adopt "salami slicing" by sending higher-level officials to visit each other, they are making a gamble that will be costly to both of them.

As tensions in the Taiwan Straits spiral, the Taiwan authorities led by Tsai Ing-wen accused the mainland of intimidation, and Washington asserted that the mainland has resorted to high military pressure to unilaterally change the status quo. But the tense situation in the Taiwan Straits began with the Tsai authorities abandoning the 1992 Consensus. This completely breaks the political basis for cross-Straits communication. Meanwhile, the passage of the Taiwan Travel Act by the US breaks away from the US' one-China policy. Safeguarding its territorial integrity has become an urgent task for the Chinese mainland.

When the Tsai authorities scrapped the 1992 Consensus, they "supported democracy and freedom of Taiwan people." When the US violated the three joint communiqués between China and the US to boost "diplomatic" ties with Taiwan and sell arms to Taiwan, it "supported Taiwan's democratic regime." But when the mainland sent its warning through military exercises, it "exercised autocracy and power." Such fallacies will not win support from international law and the international community.

It is not known how the US and Taiwan will make further provocations, but the response of the mainland is certain. If the US and Taiwan raise the level of officials for engagement, the mainland will firmly respond by sending PLA fighter jets over the island of Taiwan to claim sovereignty. Deployment of the US army to Taiwan means the start of a cross-Straits war. With the Anti-Secession Law in place, Taiwan and the US should be prepared to confront the determination of the 1.4 billion mainland people and the PLA if they step over the red lines.

The mainland has patiently promoted its policy for peaceful reunification for years. However, the Tsai authorities obstinately have walked toward the path of "Taiwan independence" and fallen prey to the US strategy of China containment, bringing the cross-Straits situation closer to a tipping point. If a cross-Straits war eventually breaks out, the Tsai authorities will be the collective sinners to be punished.
 
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Returning US forces to Taiwan will ‘trigger reunification-by-force operation’


Amid ongoing large-scale exercises by the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) in the Taiwan Straits targeting foreign interventions and Taiwan secessionists, an article recently published in a US military journal urged the US to consider returning US forces to the island, a move that would break the Three Joint Communiqués between China and the US that stipulated all US forces and military installations withdrawn from the Chinese island.

This crazy suggestion does no good for people in Taiwan, and if it was to come true, the PLA would take resolute military action and realize reunification by force, Chinese mainland analysts said on Thursday, citing China's Anti-Secession Law.

The two PLA aircraft carriers have recently completed regular exercises and sea trials respectively. Experts said the carriers could play vital roles in taking over the island.

In an article titled "Deterring the Dragon: Returning US Forces to Taiwan" published in the September-October 2020 issue of the Military Review, the professional journal of the US Army, Captain Walker D. Mills of the US Marine Corps said that the US needs to consider basing ground forces in Taiwan as the balance of forces in East Asia continues to tip in favor of the PLA.

Mills claimed that the presence of US ground forces could not only repel a PLA cross-Straits operation but also serve as a tripwire that would inevitably trigger a wider conflict not acceptable to the Chinese mainland.

Another article in the journal said the US Army should provide a corps of two-to-four divisions plus supporting units to spearhead offensives against the PLA bridgeheads.

If the US does deploy troops to Taiwan, it not only breaks the Three Joint Communiqués fundamental to China-US diplomatic relations, but also triggers articles in China's Anti-Secession Law and enables the state to employ non-peaceful means and other necessary measures to protect China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, Chinese mainland analysts said.

Despite that the US has been enhancing military cooperation with Taiwan island, including sending military consultants, the US military has remained cautious in stationing troops in the island, because it knows this kind of action will send China-US relations back to pre-1979 level, a status of confrontation, Song Zhongping, a Chinese mainland military expert and TV commentator, told the Global Times on Thursday.

The US would have to weigh and consider balance, Song said.

The US must think twice and not challenge China's bottom line on its core interests such as the Taiwan question, Song said, noting that the PLA will not hesitate to fight, but to the US, Taiwan island is only a cash cow and pawn to pin down the Chinese mainland, and the US will abandon the island if it hurts US interests.

China's Anti-Secession Law states that, in the event that "Taiwan independence" secessionist forces should act under any name or by any means to cause Taiwan's secession from China, or major incidents entailing Taiwan's secession from China should occur, or possibilities for a peaceful reunification be completely exhausted, the state shall employ non-peaceful means and other necessary measures to protect China's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

A potential US military deployment in Taiwan would fall into the second and third scenario that may trigger a PLA reunification-by-force operation, observers said.

In such an event, the PLA would initiate operations using naval and air forces to lockdown the island of Taiwan, cut off its connection with the outside world and stop US forces from further intervening, a Beijing-based expert on military affairs told the Global Times on Thursday under the condition of anonymity.

In a possible next step, the PLA could launch a full reunification-by-force operation, the anonymous expert said.

Not welcome


The US Army journal article has also garnered heated discussion among politicians in Taiwan, with neither Democratic Progressive Party nor Kuomintang representatives believing it would be a good idea.

Democratic Progressive Party "legislator" Lo Chih-Cheng said on Wednesday that US forces stationed in Taiwan would not necessary build up deterrence, and Kuomintang "legislator" Lee De-wei said while the US could continue arms sales to Taiwan, it is unlikely to send troops to the island, the Voice of America reported on Wednesday.

The anonymous expert said that the PLA has built up strong deterrence with recent military exercises in the Taiwan Straits, and the Taiwan authorities currently do not want Washington to challenge Beijing to provoke a real cross-Straits military conflict, turning it into cannon fodder.

The author of the article, a captain, is not a high-ranking officer, so it does not necessarily represent a strategic decision of the higher-ups in the US government and military. The US journal Military Review is US Army-affiliated, so it stresses the importance of ground forces, but it is questionable what role they could play compared to air and naval forces, which are more practical. Ground troops would only become meat shields and hostages, and the US would not risk this, the expert said.

PLA ready

The ongoing live-fire exercises in the Taiwan Straits by the PLA demonstrate its determination and capability to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity. The drills are aimed at intervention from foreign forces, "Taiwan independence" secessionists and their secessionist actions, Senior Colonel Tan Kefei, a Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson, said at a regular press conference on Thursday.

As part of the exercises, the PLA has flown dozens of warplanes including bombers, fighter jets and anti-submarine warfare aircraft near Taiwan island since Friday, according to the island's "defense authority."

The two aircraft carriers from the PLA Navy, the Liaoning and the Shandong, have also recently completed regular exercises and sea trials respectively, Tan announced at the press conference.

The exercises and trials by the two aircraft carriers sparked tensions on the island of Taiwan, as the military on the island feared a potential island encirclement patrol by the two carriers, Taiwan media reported earlier this month, when the two carriers embarked on voyages, with mainland experts saying the warships could play important roles in a potential reunification-by-force operation by attacking the island from different sides and intercepting a possible US intervention.

Regardless of what action the US military takes, the PLA would maintain a strategic focus, which is to continue preparing with exercises aimed at the secessionists and foreign interventions, Song said, noting that the PLA should prepare for a worst-case scenario, in which the US and Japan both intervene.
 
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Returning US forces to Taiwan will ‘trigger reunification-by-force operation’


Amid ongoing large-scale exercises by the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) in the Taiwan Straits targeting foreign interventions and Taiwan secessionists, an article recently published in a US military journal urged the US to consider returning US forces to the island, a move that would break the Three Joint Communiqués between China and the US that stipulated all US forces and military installations withdrawn from the Chinese island.

This crazy suggestion does no good for people in Taiwan, and if it was to come true, the PLA would take resolute military action and realize reunification by force, Chinese mainland analysts said on Thursday, citing China's Anti-Secession Law.

The two PLA aircraft carriers have recently completed regular exercises and sea trials respectively. Experts said the carriers could play vital roles in taking over the island.

In an article titled "Deterring the Dragon: Returning US Forces to Taiwan" published in the September-October 2020 issue of the Military Review, the professional journal of the US Army, Captain Walker D. Mills of the US Marine Corps said that the US needs to consider basing ground forces in Taiwan as the balance of forces in East Asia continues to tip in favor of the PLA.

Mills claimed that the presence of US ground forces could not only repel a PLA cross-Straits operation but also serve as a tripwire that would inevitably trigger a wider conflict not acceptable to the Chinese mainland.

Another article in the journal said the US Army should provide a corps of two-to-four divisions plus supporting units to spearhead offensives against the PLA bridgeheads.

If the US does deploy troops to Taiwan, it not only breaks the Three Joint Communiqués fundamental to China-US diplomatic relations, but also triggers articles in China's Anti-Secession Law and enables the state to employ non-peaceful means and other necessary measures to protect China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, Chinese mainland analysts said.

Despite that the US has been enhancing military cooperation with Taiwan island, including sending military consultants, the US military has remained cautious in stationing troops in the island, because it knows this kind of action will send China-US relations back to pre-1979 level, a status of confrontation, Song Zhongping, a Chinese mainland military expert and TV commentator, told the Global Times on Thursday.

The US would have to weigh and consider balance, Song said.

The US must think twice and not challenge China's bottom line on its core interests such as the Taiwan question, Song said, noting that the PLA will not hesitate to fight, but to the US, Taiwan island is only a cash cow and pawn to pin down the Chinese mainland, and the US will abandon the island if it hurts US interests.

China's Anti-Secession Law states that, in the event that "Taiwan independence" secessionist forces should act under any name or by any means to cause Taiwan's secession from China, or major incidents entailing Taiwan's secession from China should occur, or possibilities for a peaceful reunification be completely exhausted, the state shall employ non-peaceful means and other necessary measures to protect China's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

A potential US military deployment in Taiwan would fall into the second and third scenario that may trigger a PLA reunification-by-force operation, observers said.

In such an event, the PLA would initiate operations using naval and air forces to lockdown the island of Taiwan, cut off its connection with the outside world and stop US forces from further intervening, a Beijing-based expert on military affairs told the Global Times on Thursday under the condition of anonymity.

In a possible next step, the PLA could launch a full reunification-by-force operation, the anonymous expert said.

Not welcome


The US Army journal article has also garnered heated discussion among politicians in Taiwan, with neither Democratic Progressive Party nor Kuomintang representatives believing it would be a good idea.

Democratic Progressive Party "legislator" Lo Chih-Cheng said on Wednesday that US forces stationed in Taiwan would not necessary build up deterrence, and Kuomintang "legislator" Lee De-wei said while the US could continue arms sales to Taiwan, it is unlikely to send troops to the island, the Voice of America reported on Wednesday.

The anonymous expert said that the PLA has built up strong deterrence with recent military exercises in the Taiwan Straits, and the Taiwan authorities currently do not want Washington to challenge Beijing to provoke a real cross-Straits military conflict, turning it into cannon fodder.

The author of the article, a captain, is not a high-ranking officer, so it does not necessarily represent a strategic decision of the higher-ups in the US government and military. The US journal Military Review is US Army-affiliated, so it stresses the importance of ground forces, but it is questionable what role they could play compared to air and naval forces, which are more practical. Ground troops would only become meat shields and hostages, and the US would not risk this, the expert said.

PLA ready

The ongoing live-fire exercises in the Taiwan Straits by the PLA demonstrate its determination and capability to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity. The drills are aimed at intervention from foreign forces, "Taiwan independence" secessionists and their secessionist actions, Senior Colonel Tan Kefei, a Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson, said at a regular press conference on Thursday.

As part of the exercises, the PLA has flown dozens of warplanes including bombers, fighter jets and anti-submarine warfare aircraft near Taiwan island since Friday, according to the island's "defense authority."

The two aircraft carriers from the PLA Navy, the Liaoning and the Shandong, have also recently completed regular exercises and sea trials respectively, Tan announced at the press conference.

The exercises and trials by the two aircraft carriers sparked tensions on the island of Taiwan, as the military on the island feared a potential island encirclement patrol by the two carriers, Taiwan media reported earlier this month, when the two carriers embarked on voyages, with mainland experts saying the warships could play important roles in a potential reunification-by-force operation by attacking the island from different sides and intercepting a possible US intervention.

Regardless of what action the US military takes, the PLA would maintain a strategic focus, which is to continue preparing with exercises aimed at the secessionists and foreign interventions, Song said, noting that the PLA should prepare for a worst-case scenario, in which the US and Japan both intervene.

From the link given:

Chinese mainland wraps up exercises involving two aircraft carriers.

Let us look at what a US "assault carrier" can carry:

1600972174133.png



That is correct, US can just send one of it's assault carriers loaded with 20-24 F-35Bs and these will shoot down the 50-60 or so J-15s that the two Chinese aircraft carriers can carry with ease.

I seriously hope that for China's sake this is just a media outlet mouthing off and no official intent to dare challenge the US, as any attempt to engage the US military will result in one of the biggest defeats in military history for China.
 

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US can surge 8 supercarriers and a number of their smaller ones in wartime.

You underestimate just how many they can deploy if they really wanted to. Maintenance and other things can be cut short if there is a pressing need.

PLAAN and China would suffer massive defeat if USN intervened to defend Taiwan and it will stay this way for at least another 10 years.

China is not on par with US but today they can not be taken lightly like 50s also Nukes make wars more dangerous and that is why US also know its limits in any possible China US war in future as US will not want to take even single Nuclear hit on its city which will kills huge amount of humans which they have not faced since creation of US.
 
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Right now you can only take Taiwan with their consent.

Hong Kong was given back to you by UK as 99 year lease expired.

Two situations are totally different.
Why on earth will USA go to war in any form with China over Taiwan? They simply will not do so. Anyone expecting otherwise is mad. Did they go to war with Russia on the numerous occasions Putin gave USA clear cassus belli to do so? China can cause immense damage to American expeditionary forces and American assets in the Pacific/Asian region. USA would be mad to declare war over Taiwan.

If Taiwan is hanging on a prayer for US intervention, India is well and truly alone by the way.
 
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From the link given:

Chinese mainland wraps up exercises involving two aircraft carriers.

Let us look at what a US "assault carrier" can carry:

View attachment 672978


That is correct, US can just send one of it's assault carriers loaded with 20-24 F-35Bs and these will shoot down the 50-60 or so J-15s that the two Chinese aircraft carriers can carry with ease.

I seriously hope that for China's sake this is just a media outlet mouthing off and no official intent to dare challenge the US, as any attempt to engage the US military will result in one of the biggest defeats in military history for China.
LOL... nice photo of floating coffins for our ASBM :lol:
 
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LOL... nice photo of floating coffins for our ASBM :lol:


You have no evidence that the ASBM works as intended.

China has yet to carry out a test on a moving ship at sea, even when it knew where it was and not carrying out evasive manoeuvres.

There are a lot of things that need to go right on the Chinese side and a lot of things that need to go wrong on the US side for there to be a successful strike.

Now, I take it that you agree that even a single US "assault ship" can shoot down all your J-15s on your 2 carriers?

The reason why I put that "assault ship" up is to demonstrate how far behind China is over US when the US can send one of these ships and destroy your CBG air-groups with their high-tech F-35Bs.

Please come back in 10 years and then this may have a semblance of realism, as right now it is just a Chinese fantasy.
 
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You have no evidence that the ASBM works as intended.

China has yet to carry out a test on a moving ship at sea, even when it knew where it was and not carrying out evasive manoeuvres.

PRC has also never lost a war and never broken a signed treaty.

US has yet to go to hot war against an adversary with over 50% of its own GDP. Even Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan combined did not exceed that, the Soviets were only 40%.
 
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You have no evidence that the ASBM works as intended.

China has yet to carry out a test on a moving ship at sea, even when it knew where it was and not carrying out evasive manoeuvres.

There are a lot of things that need to go right on the Chinese side and a lot of things that need to go wrong on the US side for there to be a successful strike.

Now, I take it that you agree that even a single US "assault ship" can shoot down all your J-15s on your 2 carriers?

The reason why I put that "assault ship" up is to demonstrate how far behind China is over US when the US can send one of these ships and destroy your CBG air-groups with their high-tech F-35Bs.

Please come back in 10 years and then this may have a semblance of realism, as right now it is just a Chinese fantasy.
LOL at the Bangladeshi border jumper so humiliated by China's ASBM :lol:
 
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LOL at the Bangladeshi border jumper so humiliated by China's ASBM :lol:

Due to the balance of industrial production and geography, any attack by foreign aggressors will have it assume the role of Imperial Japan in WW2 at best.

Remember that Imperial Japan started out with 25 carriers, 10 battleships, 43 cruisers and 150+ destroyers. They all ended up at the bottom.

That is the power of industrial capability.
 
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