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Nuclear Notebook: Pakistani nuclear forces 2009
This time article is less detailed when compared to the past. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists article Nuclear Notebook: Pakistani nuclear forces 2009 by Robert S. Norris & Hans Kristensen contain lot of intentional and unintentional mistakes specifically designed by the authors to underestimate the potential destructive power of our current nuclear weapons program. I will try to cover few obvious mistakes of the article
As they have already said that Pakistan have produced approximately 2,000 kilograms of highly enriched uranium (HEU) that will give Pakistan around 80 to 130 HEU based nuclear weapons as per their estimates of 15 to 25 kg per nuclear weapon and 90 kilograms of separated military plutonium will give 30 plutonium based nuclear weapons by early 2008..
It was stated that 4050-megawatt heavy water Khushab plutonium production reactor can produce 10 to 15 kg of plutonium each year and by the end of 2000 Pakistan had Min of 10 kg and Max of 28 kg plutonium. By these statements we get Min of 90 kg and Max of148 kg plutonium by end of 2008. This putts the upper limit of 49 plutonium nuclear weapons by end of 2008.
So combined nuclear capability of Pakistani nuclear weapons is Minimum of 110 to maximum 179 (160 by the figures provided by this report) warheads. Now I dont know why they say that we estimate a current Pakistani nuclear stockpile of about 7090 warheads
F-16s range and payload both are understated, My question is why?
Pakistan has already announced that their nuclear weapons that were tested included boosted fission nuclear warheads. Though these were not two stage thermonuclear warheads but these claims were sufficiently supported by the evidence of the purchase of equipment from the western countries in late 1980s.
If i am not wrong, Dr Samar have also mentioned that Pakistan uses three man control unlike US two man control that created several disasters like B-52 carrying missing nuclear weapons and sleeping two man intended to protect the nuclear weapons
Pakistan has never stated that the range of Ghaznavi SRBM is more than 300km. Only the fools who have already assumed that Pakistani Ghaznavi missiles are copies of the M-11 missiles, will assume that Ghaznavi Hatf-III will have similar range which is not the case.
Hatf-III is not M-11 contrary to the internet myth; both missiles are having completely different dimensions weights, range and reentry vehicles. So far no one is able to produce a single picture of M-11 in Pakistani service on the other hand many pictures of Hatf-III are available on the internet and that is completely different missile then M-11
Specifications of M-11
Official name: DongFeng 11 (DF-11)
Export name: M-11
Length: 7.5m (DF-11); 8.5m (DF-11A)
Diameter: 0.8m
Launch weight: 4,200kg
Warhead: 500kg HE
Range: 280~350km (DF-11); >500km (DF-11A)
Accuracy: CEP 500~600m (DF-11); <200m (DF-11A)
Specifications of Ghaznavi Hatf-III
Official name: Ghaznavi Hatf-III
Length: 9.64m
Diameter: 0.88m
Launch weight: 5256kg
Range: 290
Accuracy: CEP less then 58m
Specifications
Official name: DongFeng 15 (DF-15)
Export name: M-9
NATO reporting name: CSS-6
Configuration: Single-stage (DF-15)
Length: 9.1m (DF-15)
Diameter: 1.0m
Launch weight: 6,200kg
Warhead: 500kg HE
Range: 600km (DF-15)
Accuracy: CEP 150~500m; or 30~50m on the later variants
Specifications of Shaheen-I
Official name: Shaheen-I Hatf-IV
Length: 12m
Diameter: 1m
Launch weight: 9500kg
Range: 750
Re-entry vehicle mass of 850kg
Accuracy: CEP less than 20-30m
Authors of the article mentioned the range of 450km which is the range Indians claimed that shaheen-1 was able to achieve in its first test.
Ohh, they cant even copy past now, Shaheen-2 have a range of 2000 km that can be extended to 2500km not 2050km
In 2007 satellite imagery show thats 11( yes 11 not 15 launchers for Shaheen-2 were spotted in the imagery out of which 2 were already fitted with shaheen-2 missiles with other 9 in various stages of being equipped. Another four launcher were for shaheen-1again two of them were already fitted with Shaheen-1 missiles) launchers at various stages of being equipped with their missile erector and in 2008 Pakistans Army Strategic Force Command tests Shaheen-2 medium-range ballistic missile twice which can only be done once missile is deployed by the PAs SFC. So what is left of being operationally deployed? What kind of more proof these fools wants?
Completely missed the long range stretched Ghauri-2 Missile which was covered as part of Pakistans nuclear arsenal (Ghauri-2 (Hatf-6) 2,0002,300 7501,000 Tested April 14, 1999)
This part gets even worse as it compares the Babur GLCM with the Russian AS-15
Authors cannot see the difference between Babur and Kh-55
Babur GLCM
Length --
Body diameter --
Launch weight 1500kg
Payload 300kg (newer version has 450kg)
Range 750 km
Accuracy 3-5m CEP
AS-15A
Length: 6.04 m (7.1 m with boost motor)
Body diameter: 0.514 m
Launch weight: 1,210 kg
Payload: Single warhead 410 kg
Warhead: Nuclear 200 to 250 kT
Range: 2,500 km
Accuracy: 25 m CEP
1.Both Babur GLCM and Russian cruise missile are completely in different category as far as range is concerned Range is different
2. Weight is completely different AS-15/ Kh-55 with 1210kg and Babur with1500 kg
3. Payload capability is totally different Kh-55 with 500 kg and Babur with 300 kg
4. Air intake is of different design AS-15 / Kh-55 as engine is on a short pylon under the rear body after launch on the other hand in Baburs case only air intake comes out after launch.
5. Different kind of launchers Kh-55 with air and submarines and Babur with ground launched with rectangular launchers for operational use and DH-10/C-602 is with round launchers
6. Babur has much more similarity with the TOMHAWAK cruise missile then this Russian. Babur appears to share several basic similarities with the US BGM-109 Tomahawk land attack cruise missile, with the two being roughly the same size and shape and having a similar wing and engine intake design.
Now as you can see in the above news Pakistans name was never mentioned and this news was simply about the Ukraine smuggling of Kh-55SM/Korshun by Iran and china but then Pakistan tests the Babur cruise missile few years after the news appeared and Indians were surprised and then comes this Prasun K Sengupta with wildest of claims and started including Pakistan without any kind of proof. He gives the details of everything like he was there supervising the operations but wont have anything to say once you ask him for proof. He is actually so bad at making the lies that he even dont know the basic realities that existed in Pakistani nuclear establishment. He links the famous A.Q.Khan (because of his reputation of smuggling the Strategic weapons) with this news without any proof. Poor guy even dont know that Dr A Q Khan was running the KRL not the NESCOM where Babur cruise missiles are designed and build and even when Dr A Q Khan was running the KRL, he had furious rivalry with NESCOM. Therefore complete theory of Wal-Mart goes to ground as only thing in this article that can be called a Wal-Mart is he i.e. Wal-Mart of baseless news
But irrespective of the fact that his allegations against Pakistan were baseless, few so- called experts started using his story as bases to link Pakistani Babur with AS-15, especially Americans, perhaps to reduce the shame of the fact that Pakistan was able to use their crashed BGM-109 Tomahawk.
This time article is less detailed when compared to the past. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists article Nuclear Notebook: Pakistani nuclear forces 2009 by Robert S. Norris & Hans Kristensen contain lot of intentional and unintentional mistakes specifically designed by the authors to underestimate the potential destructive power of our current nuclear weapons program. I will try to cover few obvious mistakes of the article
Pakistan is thought to have produced approximately 2,000 kilograms of highly enriched uranium (HEU) and 90 kilograms of separated military plutonium by early 2008.
While we do not know the skill level of Pakistani bomb designers, medium technical capabilities certainly seem plausible, which would require approximately 20 kilograms of HEU and 3 kilograms of plutonium for a warhead designed to have a yield of 10 kilotons.4 Pakistans weapons have been estimated to have yields of between 5 and 10 kilotons, judging by its few nuclear tests.
With warhead production probably well underway, if not already completed, for the Shaheen II medium range ballistic missile, and deployment of the Babur cruise missile anticipated within the next few years, we estimate a current Pakistani nuclear stockpile of about 7090 warheads.
As they have already said that Pakistan have produced approximately 2,000 kilograms of highly enriched uranium (HEU) that will give Pakistan around 80 to 130 HEU based nuclear weapons as per their estimates of 15 to 25 kg per nuclear weapon and 90 kilograms of separated military plutonium will give 30 plutonium based nuclear weapons by early 2008..
It was stated that 4050-megawatt heavy water Khushab plutonium production reactor can produce 10 to 15 kg of plutonium each year and by the end of 2000 Pakistan had Min of 10 kg and Max of 28 kg plutonium. By these statements we get Min of 90 kg and Max of148 kg plutonium by end of 2008. This putts the upper limit of 49 plutonium nuclear weapons by end of 2008.
So combined nuclear capability of Pakistani nuclear weapons is Minimum of 110 to maximum 179 (160 by the figures provided by this report) warheads. Now I dont know why they say that we estimate a current Pakistani nuclear stockpile of about 7090 warheads
Aircraft
F-16a/b 1,600 1 bomb (4,500)
Mirage V 2,100 1 bomb (4,000)
Ballistic missiles
Ghaznavi (Hatf-3) ~400 conventional or nuclear (500)
Shaheen-1 (Hatf-4) 450+ conventional or nuclear (1,000)
Shaheen-2 (Hatf-6)* 2,000+ conventional or nuclear (1,000)
Ghauri (Hatf-5) 1,200+ conventional or nuclear (1,000)
Cruise missiles
Babur (Hatf-7)* 320+ conventional or nuclear (n/a)
Raad (Hatf-8)* 320+ conventional or nuclear (n/a)
F-16s range and payload both are understated, My question is why?
The Pakistani Air Force deploys its F-16s with Squadrons 9 and 11at Sargodha Air Base, which is located 160 kilometers northwest of Lahore. The F-16 has a refueled range of more than 1,600 kilometers, and that range can be extended if the planes are equipped with drop tanks. The aircraft can carry up to 5,450 kilograms externally on one under-fuselage centerline pylon and six underwing stations.
Pakistani military with several options: fabricating weapons that use plutonium cores; mixing plutonium with HEU to make composite cores; and/or using tritium to boost warheads yield (loading the reactors targets with lithium 6 will produce tritium).
Pakistan has already announced that their nuclear weapons that were tested included boosted fission nuclear warheads. Though these were not two stage thermonuclear warheads but these claims were sufficiently supported by the evidence of the purchase of equipment from the western countries in late 1980s.
Pakistani nuclear controls include some functional equivalent to the two-man rule and permissive action links
If i am not wrong, Dr Samar have also mentioned that Pakistan uses three man control unlike US two man control that created several disasters like B-52 carrying missing nuclear weapons and sleeping two man intended to protect the nuclear weapons
The solid-fueled, single-stage Ghaznavi entered service in 2004 and can deliver a 500-kilogram payload approximately 400 kilometers. We dont know how many Ghaznavis Pakistan deploys or keeps in storage. The missile is believed to be derived from the Chinese M-11 missile, of which approximately 30 were delivered to Pakistan in the early 1990s.
Pakistan has never stated that the range of Ghaznavi SRBM is more than 300km. Only the fools who have already assumed that Pakistani Ghaznavi missiles are copies of the M-11 missiles, will assume that Ghaznavi Hatf-III will have similar range which is not the case.
Hatf-III is not M-11 contrary to the internet myth; both missiles are having completely different dimensions weights, range and reentry vehicles. So far no one is able to produce a single picture of M-11 in Pakistani service on the other hand many pictures of Hatf-III are available on the internet and that is completely different missile then M-11
Specifications of M-11
Official name: DongFeng 11 (DF-11)
Export name: M-11
Length: 7.5m (DF-11); 8.5m (DF-11A)
Diameter: 0.8m
Launch weight: 4,200kg
Warhead: 500kg HE
Range: 280~350km (DF-11); >500km (DF-11A)
Accuracy: CEP 500~600m (DF-11); <200m (DF-11A)
Specifications of Ghaznavi Hatf-III
Official name: Ghaznavi Hatf-III
Length: 9.64m
Diameter: 0.88m
Launch weight: 5256kg
Range: 290
Accuracy: CEP less then 58m
Same goes for the Shaheen-1missile which is much heavier, longer in length, has long range and is specifically designed to carry a larger re-entry vehicle ( when compared to the 500 kg M-9)with mass of 850kg (not 1000kgs as suggested in the article) and have a terminal guidance to achieve high accuracy. M-9 was shown with terminal guidance only in 2007-08Pakistans Shaheen-1 is a reverse engineered M-9 missile originally supplied by China. The solid-fueled, single-stage missile has been in service since 2003, can strike targets in excess of 450 kilometersthough some observers suggest the range is closer to 700 kilometers and can deliver a payload of up to 1,000 kilograms.
Specifications
Official name: DongFeng 15 (DF-15)
Export name: M-9
NATO reporting name: CSS-6
Configuration: Single-stage (DF-15)
Length: 9.1m (DF-15)
Diameter: 1.0m
Launch weight: 6,200kg
Warhead: 500kg HE
Range: 600km (DF-15)
Accuracy: CEP 150~500m; or 30~50m on the later variants
Specifications of Shaheen-I
Official name: Shaheen-I Hatf-IV
Length: 12m
Diameter: 1m
Launch weight: 9500kg
Range: 750
Re-entry vehicle mass of 850kg
Accuracy: CEP less than 20-30m
Authors of the article mentioned the range of 450km which is the range Indians claimed that shaheen-1 was able to achieve in its first test.
Islamabad claims that its two-stage Shaheen-2 medium-range ballistic missile, unveiled seven years ago at the Pakistan Day parade but still under development, has a range of 2,050 kilometers and can carry a 1,000-kilogram payload. The missile is carried on a six-axle, road-mobile launcher, and satellite images of the National Defense Complex near Fatehjang appear to show 15 launchers at various stages of being equipped with their missile erector. The army conducted two operational readiness launches of the missile on April 19 and April 21, 2008, indicating that the Shaheen-2 is close to becoming operational.
Ohh, they cant even copy past now, Shaheen-2 have a range of 2000 km that can be extended to 2500km not 2050km
In 2007 satellite imagery show thats 11( yes 11 not 15 launchers for Shaheen-2 were spotted in the imagery out of which 2 were already fitted with shaheen-2 missiles with other 9 in various stages of being equipped. Another four launcher were for shaheen-1again two of them were already fitted with Shaheen-1 missiles) launchers at various stages of being equipped with their missile erector and in 2008 Pakistans Army Strategic Force Command tests Shaheen-2 medium-range ballistic missile twice which can only be done once missile is deployed by the PAs SFC. So what is left of being operationally deployed? What kind of more proof these fools wants?
The 1,200-kilometer medium-range Ghauri (Hatf-5) is Pakistans only liquid-fueled nuclear-capable ballistic missile. First deployed in 2003, the single-stage missile can deliver a payload of 7001,000 kilograms. The Ghauri might be replaced by the Shaheen-2.
Completely missed the long range stretched Ghauri-2 Missile which was covered as part of Pakistans nuclear arsenal (Ghauri-2 (Hatf-6) 2,0002,300 7501,000 Tested April 14, 1999)
Cruise missiles. Pakistan also is developing two cruise missiles that U.S. Air Force intelligence estimates may be nuclear capable. The ground-launched Babur (Hatf-7) has been test-launched five times, most recently on December 11, 2007. U.S. intelligence agencies estimate that the missile has a range of about 320 kilometers, while media reports frequently suggest the range is from 500 to 700 kilometers. Pakistani officials describe the Babur as a low-flying, terrain-hugging missile with high maneuverability, pinpoint accuracy,and radar-avoidance features.14 The Babur appears to be similar to the new Chinese DH-10 air-launched cruise missile and the Russian AS-15. The Babur is significantly slimmer than Pakistans ballistic missiles, which suggests that Pakistani engineers have made progress in warhead miniaturization, perhaps based on a new and smaller plutonium warhead. A submarine-launched version of the Babur, which has been rumored to be in the work, has not yet materialized. The air-launched Raad (Hatf-8), or Thunder, which has the same range as the Babur, was first test-launched on August 25, 2007 by a Mirage aircraft; a second test-launch occurred on May 8, 2008. A Pakistani military spokesman described the Raad as a low-altitude, terrain-following missile with high maneuverability and as equipped with special stealth capabilities to provide a great strategic standoff capability on land and at sea.
This part gets even worse as it compares the Babur GLCM with the Russian AS-15
Authors cannot see the difference between Babur and Kh-55
Babur GLCM
Length --
Body diameter --
Launch weight 1500kg
Payload 300kg (newer version has 450kg)
Range 750 km
Accuracy 3-5m CEP
AS-15A
Length: 6.04 m (7.1 m with boost motor)
Body diameter: 0.514 m
Launch weight: 1,210 kg
Payload: Single warhead 410 kg
Warhead: Nuclear 200 to 250 kT
Range: 2,500 km
Accuracy: 25 m CEP
1.Both Babur GLCM and Russian cruise missile are completely in different category as far as range is concerned Range is different
2. Weight is completely different AS-15/ Kh-55 with 1210kg and Babur with1500 kg
3. Payload capability is totally different Kh-55 with 500 kg and Babur with 300 kg
4. Air intake is of different design AS-15 / Kh-55 as engine is on a short pylon under the rear body after launch on the other hand in Baburs case only air intake comes out after launch.
5. Different kind of launchers Kh-55 with air and submarines and Babur with ground launched with rectangular launchers for operational use and DH-10/C-602 is with round launchers
6. Babur has much more similarity with the TOMHAWAK cruise missile then this Russian. Babur appears to share several basic similarities with the US BGM-109 Tomahawk land attack cruise missile, with the two being roughly the same size and shape and having a similar wing and engine intake design.
Ukraine's Illicit Weapons Sales to Iran and China
On February 2, 2005, Hryhoriy Omelchenko, Deputy Chair of the Ukrainian parliaments Committee on the Fight against Organized Crime and Corruption, made public information about ongoing investigations into the alleged illegal export of 12 Kh-55 (NATO designation AS-15A) and Kh-55SM (AS-15B) nuclear-capable air-launched cruise missiles (ALCMs) from Ukraine to Iran and China. [1]The transfer of the missiles was in violation of Kievs START I Treaty obligations. Under the treaty, to which Ukraine became a party by signing the Lisbon Protocol in 1992, Ukraine committed to dismantling or returning to Russia the Tu-160 and Tu-95MS bombers and accompanying Kh-55 ALCMs that remained in the country after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. [2] However, according to Omelchenko, the Progress trading firm (a subsidiary of the state arms trader Ukrspetseksport) illegally transferred missiles to China in April 2000 and to Iran in May 2001. In addition, Progress supplied Iran with an associated ground targeting system, referred to as the KNO-120. [1]Omelchenkos letter began with a request to arrest Valeriy Shmarov, head of Ukraines arms export company Ukrspetseksport. According to the letter, a criminal case regarding the missile sale was opened in February 2004. Director of the air cargo company UkrAviaZakaz and former Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) staffer V.V. Yevdokymov, along with three Russian citizens (Oleg G. Orlov, Ye. V. Shilenko, and G.K. Shkinov) stand accused of collaborating with S.M. Samoylenko, then director of Progress, in the missile sale. [1] Orlov, a Russian arms trader accused by the U.N. Security Council in 2001 of selling illegal weapons to Angola, and Shilenko approached Ukrspetseksport in early 2000 regarding the sale. [1,3] The Russians had fictitious documents from the Russian Ministry of De fense and the state-owned Rosvooruzheniye arms trading company, as well as end-user certificates to support their request to purchase 20 Kh-55 missiles. These false documents were evidently accepted by Ukraines State Export Control Service, which allowed the sale to move forward. Yevdokymov arranged for the missiles to be transported by air from Ukraine to China in April 2000. [1] He provided customs with documents indicating that the flight was departing for an airport in Russia, but instead the six missiles were flown to China. [4] Former Ukrspetseksport head V.I. Malyev reportedly knew that the paperwork was fictitious and that the missiles were headed for China. Progress was paid US$600,000; the payment was made by two firms based in Cyprus via the U.S. firm Technocality Inc. through the Central European International Bank in Budapest. [1] Six missiles destined for Iran similarly were sold for US$600,000, and related ground targeting equipment for an additional US$200,000, also paid through Technocality Inc. This time, a fictitious contract between a Cypriot firm and Iranian firm for the provision of equipment to oil refineries was used as a cover for the money transfer. Further, the Iranian deal included servicing of the missiles; Ukrainian specialists visited Iran for this purpose several times in 2001-2003.In October 2004, the SBU opened a criminal case regarding the embezzlement of more than US$13 million by Ukrspetseksport staff, including Director Shmarov, through these and other illegal weapons sales. Omelchenko related that it was only in the fall of 2003, when SBU head Leonid Derkach was replaced by Ihor Smeshko, that the SBU began to investigate illegal exports, including the Kh-55 sales as well as other illegal arms sales to Sierre Leone and Eritrea. [1] The Kh-55 missile, also known in the West as a Kent missile, is a strategic ALCM (a missile with a range exceeding 600 km) under START I rules. The Kh-55SM is a long-range variant of the missile, with a maximum range of 3,000 km. The Kh-55 and Kh-55SM are designed to carry a 200-kt nuclear warhead; the conventional variant of the Kh -55 was never adopted into service; the conventional variant of the Kh-55SM missile is the Kh -555. [5] Several Kh-55as well as short-range Kh-22missiles remained in Ukraine after Russia purchased most heavy bombers and related weapons from Ukraine after the breakup of the Soviet Union. It is likely that the missiles were purchased for parts and possibly also reverse engineering of the Kh-55s highly efficient turbofan engine, the R95-300. Kh-55s were designed only for nuclear warheads and only for heavy bombers (Tu-95MS and Tu-160). Iran or China would have to modify their Kh-55s to make them capable of being launched from underneath the wing of an aircraft. Although such a conversion is conceivable, given the small number of missiles, it hardly seems worth the effort.
Sources:
1. Deputatskiy zapit [Deputys Request], Sobor website, February 2, 2005, <http://www.sobor.org.ua/vr/dep020205_2.htm>.
2. Protocol to the Treaty Between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on the Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Arms, in NIS Nuclear and Missile Database, Nuclear Threat Initiative website, <http://www.nti.org/db/nisprofs/fulltext/treaties/start1/s1lis.htm>.
3. Pavel Felgenhauer, Great Weapons for Rogues, Moscow Times, February 15, 2005, <http://www.themoscowtimes.com>.
4. Utechka informatsii iz Apellyatsionnogo suda Kieva: rakety iz Ukrainy okazalis v Kitaye i Irane! (Leaked information from Kievs Appellate Court: Missiles from Ukraine turn out to be in China and Iran!), Obozrevatel (Kiev),February 3, 2005, in Integrum Techno, <http://www.integrum.com>.
5. Russian Heavy-Bomber Delivered Missiles, NIS Nuclear and Missile Database, Nuclear Threat Initiative website, <http://www.nti.org/db/nisprofs/russia/weapons/bombers/bombers.htm>.
Now as you can see in the above news Pakistans name was never mentioned and this news was simply about the Ukraine smuggling of Kh-55SM/Korshun by Iran and china but then Pakistan tests the Babur cruise missile few years after the news appeared and Indians were surprised and then comes this Prasun K Sengupta with wildest of claims and started including Pakistan without any kind of proof. He gives the details of everything like he was there supervising the operations but wont have anything to say once you ask him for proof. He is actually so bad at making the lies that he even dont know the basic realities that existed in Pakistani nuclear establishment. He links the famous A.Q.Khan (because of his reputation of smuggling the Strategic weapons) with this news without any proof. Poor guy even dont know that Dr A Q Khan was running the KRL not the NESCOM where Babur cruise missiles are designed and build and even when Dr A Q Khan was running the KRL, he had furious rivalry with NESCOM. Therefore complete theory of Wal-Mart goes to ground as only thing in this article that can be called a Wal-Mart is he i.e. Wal-Mart of baseless news
But irrespective of the fact that his allegations against Pakistan were baseless, few so- called experts started using his story as bases to link Pakistani Babur with AS-15, especially Americans, perhaps to reduce the shame of the fact that Pakistan was able to use their crashed BGM-109 Tomahawk.
Anyways Babur GLCM have a range of 700+ km (not the 320 km in fact this is the first time I have seen such a claim, even in their 2007 article they put the range at 500km.) Raad ALCM have a range of 350 kmm not 320km.JANE'S DEFENCE WEEKLY - AUGUST 12, 2005
PAKISTAN TESTS CRUISE MISSILE
Robert Hewson, Editor, Jane's Air-Launched Weapons and
Andrew Koch JDW Bureau Chief
The Pakistani Babur cruise missile seems to share several basic similarities with the US BGM-109 Tomahawk . Pakistan's ultimate aim may be to field this weapon on its Agosta-class submarines Pakistan has made public the first test launch of a new cruise missile system, the Babur (also known as the Hatf-VII), which was successfully flight-tested on 11 August. The launch is a significant step forward for its strategic arsenal. Major General Shaukat Sultan, the Pakistan Army's chief spokesman, said that the weapon has a 500 km range and can be fitted with either a conventional or nuclear warhead. The Babur is described as a high-speed, low-level terrain-following missile, but Shaukat declined to provide specifics on its guidance or propulsion system. Neither is its payload capability known. Film footage of the test launch shows the Babur being fired from a transporter erector launcher (TEL) by a solid rocket booster fitted to the missile's tail section. The booster drops away after a short initial phase and the missile transitions into forward flight with the deployment of pop-out wings and a ventral air intake for the main engine. It is unclear whether the engine is a turbofan or turbojet power plant. However, in 2002 Pakistan announced development of a turbojet-powered aerial target called the Nishan-Mk 2TJ that analysts viewed as a preliminary step to developing a cruise missile.
The Babur test firing occurred at a previously undisclosed test range, Maj Gen Shaukat confirmed to JDW. This is understood to be located along the Baluchistan coast. A US intelligence official noted that additional tests are expected to be conducted using that area. Pakistani scientist Samar Mubarak Mund, who heads the National Engineering and Scientific Commission that led the Babur programme, told the Pakistani newspaper The News that production of the missile would begin within a month. The Babur appears to share several basic similarities with the US BGM-109 Tomahawk land attack cruise missile, with the two being roughly the same size and shape and having a similar wing and engine intake design. A Pakistani source with knowledge of the programme said the project began around 1998 and was bolstered by lessons learned from Tomahawk missiles recovered in Pakistan. These US Tomahawks had failed to reach intended targets in an August 1998 strike against a terrorist camp in Afghanistan; Pakistani officials at the time acknowledged that they had recovered at least two missiles. "I'm sure they must have learned from that ... they are quite good in reverse engineering," the source noted. Ultimately, Pakistani officials said, the Babur is being developed for land- and submarine-launched applications, with a longer-term goal of making it suitable for airborne launch. The Pakistani source said that the intention is to have the Babur deployable on the country's French-designed Agosta 90-class attack submarines, although he noted it does not appear the missile is small enough to fit into 533 mm torpedo tubes in its current configuration. The Babur's vertical launch mode also points to a possible ship-board configuration, which would be an obvious first step for such a missile. The first reports of a possible Pakistan cruise missile emerged in mid-2004 when a test was predicted before the end of that year. None occurred, but just days before the 2005 launch Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf predicted that more missile tests would be undertaken soon. At the same time Pakistani officials were reported to be working on a new nuclear missile system that would be tested in the near future. General Musharraf said that the Babur test was a "major milestone" in Pakistan's nuclear programme. According to one high-ranking military source within Pakistan's Joint Staff HQ, the Babur "is an indigenous cruise missile that has been developed and produced in Pakistan", adding that the missile design "has no 'lineage' as such". In a related development, JDW has learned that Pakistan is actively negotiating with China and France for the purchase of two or three new submarines. These same sources say that Islamabad aims to develop its first submarine-launched ballistic missile by 2006.A senior Pakistani official told JDW that "expansion of our submarine fleet" represents the next stage in the development of Pakistan's strategic weapon capability. The navy will have nine submarines following the induction by next year of the last of three Agosta submarines acquired from France. Source: Janes Defence