Read this, it surmises lot of things I want to say
http://www.dami.army.pentagon.mil/offices/dami-zxg/documents/Chapter-Global-Trends-2025.pdf
The question is not whether India is powerful country or not. No one can doubt that India is a powerful country. However, even England and Germany, with advance technology and powerful missiles, still rely on the US. Couldn't France/Germany/England had nuclear deterrant? Even though they do, they still rely on the US for protection.
Do not be prideful. Its matter of alliance, not reliance. India would be better off if it has US bases in its territory. Again, its not an occupational army. Its that India is very close to Taliban base, China and Persian gulf. If countries like Enland, Germany and Italy, which individually is just about as powerful as India, cooperate with US and provide bases for US military, I do not see how India cannot also allow to station troops in its territory.
If India is serious about countering China with US help, than allowing US military to station their troops in India is a must. As you mentioned earlier, China is growing very fast. Its rate of growth is greater than that of India. So at the current growth rate, India will never catch up to China economically. In terms of technology, India badly need western technical help. A much closer tie to the US would really help. As you point out above, India has a lot of people but its short on technology. These people need jobs and closer ties to the US would bring these people jobs.
India does not trust US enough. USSR aka Russia is still considered most friendliest country to India and even with all its might, India was not a subservient to any other country.
Unlike Japan and Germany which lost its sovereignty due to World War, unlike UK which wanted to keep its past status after the World War, unlike Australia that has no power to speak of, unlike Russia that want to join forces with China and India to keep its past superpower status, India power and influence is only growing. It does not need any support from any power to maintain its current influence.
When US aircraft carrier was docked in Chennai port in India, one of its planes flew into Indian airspace without permission and this was noted by Indian armed forces. This was also highly unpopular in India too. So I dont see neither govt support nor public support for such an alliance where India will have to allow US ports to maintain its military. As regards US needing space, I think there are several locations for US already. US has military posts in about 135 countries or so.
India has lot of military games with other nations for co-operation and as learning exercises, but I really doubt India really needs to move to become second grade partner.
Infact if you look at what is happening now, where in the past India used to buy whatever Russia provided it, India is coming up with RFI for its needs, rather than just paying Russia for weapons, it is only interested in getting weapons from Russia if they are ready to offer ToT and joint development in future weaponary.
So much has changed India position where India was close to bankruptcy in 1991 by having only 15 days of trade value as reserve. The opening up of economy and relative backwardness has grown India beyond any one's beliefs.
The current Chinese regine focus on economic development. China did had war with its neighbors in the past but that is under a different economic model. China is less likely to go back to the previous model as the current model work better. Taiwan is a special case as it claims to be the government of the whole China. So its not a territorial disput as much as government dispute. The articlar about China can challenge US is bull crap to drum up more defence spending in the US.
China can collapse as easily it is standing now. If there will be another Tienanmen square or any other agitation from rural people whose lands are taken away for growth, problems can start.
So growing China can change into questionable status anytime. Democracy is the future as is apparent from USSR's demise.
But as it stands now, China's defense budget is estimated somewhere between 78-150 billion aka 160-300 billion$ in PPP terms. I think just by dismissing that China is incapable does not change this fact. Chinese influence is felt by everyone in the world and one cannot say that some group only has intellect for technological development.
Yes American technological dominance will stay but history has shown that German tanks which were far more advanced than Patton tanks and Russian tanks could not win because of sheer scale of these tanks. US is only country with true 5th gen plane. A watered down version (F35) is made for every one else. China and Russia/India are the only countries attempting to make 5th gen planes. If China becomes successful with their J-XX project, it is another step for them. Everyone in the world currently puts China at #2 position in terms of power projection though they limit its power project to immediate surroundings.
China has demonstrated the world that it can hack US military sites, hit the satellites with missiles, its army has gained capacity to move its forces at much faster pace to any of its border.
Now with Russia's attempt to bring China and India together to put stalwart against US, which I know that both China and India dont want to join, means that Russia and Chinese border is relatively safe. If Indo-China border issues are peacefully resolved, where do you think they would deploy 2 million forces?
Chinese missiles definitely can hit the US now. But in the future, it might not be able to. China might do that, but not focusing on it as its making money.
Similarly, China will be developing counter measures to counter the missile shield too.
Well, as US technology advances, it would settle financial debts that is beneficial to the US without compromise its credit rating. US didn't remain the #1 power for 100 years without calculating everything out. All other countries can rise and fall to challenge the US military or economy. But the #1 will always stay the same for the for seeable future. As for way into the future, its up to my grandson to keep his grandson safe
How this possible? I think you should talk to any economist and you will find the answer I gave you.
Credit ratings are ratings issued based on current and future payment. The more predictable a country is regarding payments, the higher the rating. So, as per your assertion, if US does not pay, its ratings will go down. Ratings are not controlled by US govt. It is private agencies that do that. So if you dont pay, your ratings go down. It is just like credit score.
US never had debt that serviced by foreigners in such high volume. Before 1950's, all of US debt was serviced by domestic consumers. After 1980's, US for first time started having foreign countries owning larger percentage of US treasury bonds and US bills. The share of foreign countries has risen from there to now constituting about 51% of the debt serviced.
US open capital markets allows domestic consumers to invest in foreign countries. So if US were to default, it is castrophic event. Much more safer and less expensive way will be to inflate the currency and US FED provide funds to US Treasury with some special servicing.Though it would reduce the value of dollar substantially, it wont destroy US and the world (because the world depends upon dollar).
Look at the impact just few week back when Dubai - much smaller state started talking about debt restructuring.
Dubai: A High Rise, Then a Steep Fall - WSJ.com
So if US falls, it would impact not just itself but the whole world. US citizens will bear the brunt of this assault.