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North Korea sanctions punish the whole population

Aepsilons

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Herbert Hoover once said of sanctions that ‘they bred “incurable hatreds”’. On a recent trip to the DPRK those hatreds were much in evidence as our interlocutors blamed international sanctions (more commonly ‘US sanctions’) as the root cause of the North’s current woes. A recent UN report by the Honourable Michael Kirby on the ‘unspeakable atrocities’ faced by many prisoners in North Korea’s camps confirms what most followers of Korea already knew about the wretched regime. But life in the DPRK is tough for everyone except for a tiny Pyongyang elite. The sanctions regime in place to curtail North Korea’s nuclear program and to tackle the appalling human rights record now threatens to make the lives of the most vulnerable even worse.

North-Korea-Hunger.jpg


Let’s be clear — responsibility for the DPRK’s current predicament lies squarely at the feet of the North Korean regime. The regime’s domestic policies have crippled the North’s economy and its belligerent behaviour appears to have exasperated even its purported ally, China. But that does not take the international community off the hook. This is a world of international rights and norms. When constructing policy toward the DPRK there is a responsibility to prevent a worsening of the plight of the North Korean people. It appears that the ongoing sanctions regime is failing in this basic humanitarian tenet.

The current sanctions have not only failed to curtail the nuclear ambitions and human rights abuses of the ambitious North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, they are also constraining the actions of humanitarian NGOs trying to carry out life-saving activities inside the DPRK. These essential humanitarian activities include the provision of nutritional supplements to malnourished children; the treatment of infectious diseases, such as drug-resistant tuberculosis; the provision of support to rural villages; and the delivery of basic medicines, such as antibiotics and pain relief.

Because of sanctions targeted at banks dealing with the DPRK, one European diplomat told me that humanitarian agencies had resorted to carrying large amounts of cash into the DPRK in order to maintain basic operations. The remittance of funds to UN agencies and embassies operating in North Korea is being hampered. Other NGOs, including the German humanitarian organisation Welthungerhilfe, have spoken openly about the impact of sanctions and are considering withdrawal from the DPRK because they are unable to carry out their projects. Even small individual gestures are being blocked — the Japanese government, for example, continues to tighten restrictions on the sending of gifts and financial support by Koreans living in Japan to their suffering relatives in the DPRK.

The sanctions regime against Iraq following its invasion of Kuwait provides lessons for the contemporary case of North Korea. Certainly sanctions contributed to a weakening of Iraq’s military capacity as a result of the comprehensive trade embargo that was imposed in 1990. And it was Saddam Hussein’s unwillingness to work with the UN to provide humanitarian relief that compounded the effect of sanctions on the general population. However, credible estimates suggest that over 200,000 Iraqi children died as a result of the sanctions regime. The regime also dramatically weakened Iraq’s social and economic system and inspired extreme antipathy toward the West. It is not a big leap to suggest that the long-term impact of these sanctions imposed by the international community added to the complexities of reconstruction and peace building following the 2003 US-led invasion.

While sanctions against the DPRK are proving more symbolic than effective in their current form, there is a case for some targeted sanctions around the North’s nuclear program and the leadership’s luxurious lifestyle. Indeed, the current sanctions were said to be targeted, or ‘smart’, but the broad reach of the sanctions regime, the determination to rigidly enforce these sanctions and the fear held by many institutions of even carrying out legal transactions with the DPRK is constraining the ability of humanitarian agencies to conduct life-saving activities.

Iraq has taught us that the potential long-term consequences of sanctions should be measured against any short-term gains. In the case of the DPRK those long-term consequences may include yet another generation of stunted children, communities facing starvation, increased criminality, environmental disasters and a drug-resistant tuberculosis epidemic.

History has also shown that sanctions may lead to increased sympathy for the incumbent regime. The feeling of embattlement can lead to a ‘rallying’ effect by a population. That belief, albeit fed by domestic propaganda, will become easier to cultivate as more NGOs find themselves reducing their operations as a result of the embargo. And so the international community, too easily cast as the cause of the DPRK’s woes, will eventually find itself at the receiving end of Hoover’s foretold ‘incurable hatreds’.

Dr Emma Campbell is a postdoctoral fellow at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, the Australian National University.

A version of this article was first published here by the ANU College of Asia and the Pacific.


North Korea sanctions punish the whole population | East Asia Forum
 
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That's the point. The hope is that the sanctions will force the population to take action and kick out the Kim dynasty. The problem is that China will push for a coup before that would ever have a chance of occurring. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Un is the last member of his Dynasty to rule the DPRK; with the brat's constant belligerence, China is not just annoyed, but down right angry at the DPRK. I wouldn't be surprised if China pushed for a coup sooner or later.
 
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That's the point. The hope is that the sanctions will force the population to take action and kick out the Kim dynasty. The problem is that China will push for a coup before that would ever have a chance of occurring. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Un is the last member of his Dynasty to rule the DPRK; with the brat's constant belligerence, China is not just annoyed, but down right angry at the DPRK. I wouldn't be surprised if China pushed for a coup sooner or later.

did you see this article?
Kim Jong Un's executed uncle was eaten alive by 120 hungry dogs: report - World News
 
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No, but I'm not surprised. Since he's come to power, it's become clear that he's trying to purge the entire leadership and influential people in the DPRK. His goal seems to be to consolidate power under himself, and himself alone.

China seems to be getting more and more upset with him. While I don't think a collapse, or even a coup is imminent, China is definitely weighing its options.

[Edit]: Adding to this, the fact that China seemed to be the one to break the news, that shows that the DPRK no longer curry's favor within Chinese government halls. China is weighing its options, and whatever it chooses to do, will impact the entire region for decades to come.
 
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No, but I'm not surprised. Since he's come to power, it's become clear that he's trying to purge the entire leadership and influential people in the DPRK. His goal seems to be to consolidate power under himself, and himself alone.

China seems to be getting more and more upset with him. While I don't think a collapse, or even a coup is imminent, China is definitely weighing its options.

[Edit]: Adding to this, the fact that China seemed to be the one to break the news, that shows that the DPRK no longer curry's favor within Chinese government halls. China is weighing its options, and whatever it chooses to do, will impact the entire region for decades to come.

The problem is this : It is not going to be this easy.

For start, it's unfair to blame China for not doing anything now. They cannot do anything at the moment. The problem is, what NK has gone thru is that Fat Kim is consolidating his power by killing off his aide 1 by 1. It may look radical, but it send a good message to people that work under him. The message is simple "Don't do anything stupid, or you WILL end up like him, and you are always replaceable"

As I said, North Korea have been running away from the influence of Chinese regime a long time ago, the Chinese sense that and that is the reason why the policy change with China wrt North Korea these couple of days. It's a sign of Chinese losing control over North Korea.

If China were indeed doing anything to the NK regime, like a soft coup, it mostly won't succeed, mainly because Fat Kim should have a tight control of his party by now, and it would any reform lesser than that would simply pissing off North Korea so they will turn hostile to China, which is what the Chinese don't want to see. So that's only left one choice. Which is to assassinate Fat Kim, but while they can, and could probably pull it off, I am not sure if this is actually such a good idea anymore, as I cannot see anyone sane in the whole NK regime to take charge, it will probably remain the same or worse. And if Fat Kim don't die, you are probably looking at a war between NK and China. That's the worse scenario.

For China, the best thing that could happen is for SK and US to play the bad guys, and do soething drastic first, but again, this is not of US and to some extend SK interest. And the American would simply not do anything to alter the current status quo. That leaves China a hard place to be at this moment.

The moment NK gone nuclear, they have already left the Chinese influence. China is too late to do anything and basically got stuck with an irrational neighbour.
 
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The problem is this : It is not going to be this easy.
I know, it's never as easy as it seems. Whatever happens will inevitably have negative impacts, which is why the South hasn't outright invaded the north, even though it could easily win.

For start, it's unfair to blame China for not doing anything now. They cannot do anything at the moment. The problem is, what NK has gone thru is that Fat Kim is consolidating his power by killing off his aide 1 by 1. It may look radical, but it send a good message to people that work under him. The message is simple "Don't do anything stupid, or you WILL end up like him, and you are always replaceable"
Not blaming China, why would I? China has to look out for its own interests, as should any nation. I doubt that the brat can completely purge potential threats, and even if he does, I'm sure the Chinese have back up plans in place.

As I said, North Korea have been running away from the influence of Chinese regime a long time ago, the Chinese sense that and that is the reason why the policy change with China wrt North Korea these couple of days. It's a sign of Chinese losing control over North Korea.
I think the policy change happened a long time ago. Let's not forget that these purges didn't start during the brat's era, it started during the close to the end of his father's rule, when il became super paranoid about state collapse, and his family infighting after his death.

If China were indeed doing anything to the NK regime, like a soft coup, it mostly won't succeed, mainly because Fat Kim should have a tight control of his party by now, and it would any reform lesser than that would simply pissing off North Korea so they will turn hostile to China, which is what the Chinese don't want to see. So that's only left one choice. Which is to assassinate Fat Kim, but while they can, and could probably pull it off, I am not sure if this is actually such a good idea anymore, as I cannot see anyone sane in the whole NK regime to take charge, it will probably remain the same or worse. And if Fat Kim don't die, you are probably looking at a war between NK and China. That's the worse scenario.
I don't think a soft coup is what the Chinese are looking for, they'll likely enlist the help of a senior military officer to forcibly kick out the brat and his family. People tend to forget that despite the military purge of senior officers, the army has quite a bit of power in the country, which is something that Kim Jong Il himself was paranoid about, which is why he enacted the "military first" approach.

Make no mistake, if even one senior officer within the DPRK military is bought by China, the brat can kiss his *** goodbye.

For China, the best thing that could happen is for SK and US to play the bad guys, and do soething drastic first, but again, this is not of US and to some extend SK interest. And the American would simply not do anything to alter the current status quo. That leaves China a hard place to be at this moment.
I think it's already been mentioned in the past that the Chinese are perfectly fine with SK taking over NK, as long as their own strategic interests are taken into consideration (US military bases in the region). SK has been rumored to be actually thinking long and hard about giving into Chinese demands of letting go of US military bases, as long certain conditions are met.

...but that's all speculation. In the end, you're probably completely right.

The moment NK gone nuclear, they have already left the Chinese influence. China is too late to do anything and basically got stuck with an irrational neighbour.

I understand what you're sayin, but let's take some things into consideration first...

The problem with NK's nuclear weapons are that a) they haven't been successful at miniaturizing their warheads enough to have a dependable and quickly deploy-able nuclear missile (mostly due to reluctance by China to share it's expertise). b)They only have between 5-15 nuclear weapons (none of which are reliable and quickly deploy-able), all of which can easily been taken out, if proper recon is done properly.

Before I go on, this part is (admittedly) a bit of a stretch on my part, but...

Why mention this? It shows that the nuclear program was never (until recently) on top of the agenda between the two nation's relationship. The fact that China allowed the DPRK to develop weapons, but never procure Chinese technology to help in its efforts shows me that China has other methods of controlling the DPRK. The other method is obvious, it's the economy.

The DPRK, despite economic cooperation with the South (cash cow for the north), is and has always been heavily reliant with China. If it wasn't for the Chinese, the DPRK economy would have completely collapsed by now.
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Just a thought: The funny thing is, if the DPRK declared independence, liberalized it's economy, and got rid of it's nuclear ambitions, it could probably become quite a well off nation.
 
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That's the point. The hope is that the sanctions will force the population to take action and kick out the Kim dynasty. The problem is that China will push for a coup before that would ever have a chance of occurring. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Un is the last member of his Dynasty to rule the DPRK; with the brat's constant belligerence, China is not just annoyed, but down right angry at the DPRK. I wouldn't be surprised if China pushed for a coup sooner or later.

The crux to said argument , however, is the assumption that China will appropriate a directly interventionist position with Pyongyang. Contrary to their policy, they don't invest in disruptive internal affairs policies, and any intervention in Pyongyang would be contradictory to that external policy. In fact, i would even argue that countries like Japan and South Korea rely on China's soft , paternalistic position with Pyongyang.

Why mention this? It shows that the nuclear program was never (until recently) on top of the agenda between the two nation's relationship. The fact that China allowed the DPRK to develop weapons, but never procure Chinese technology to help in its efforts shows me that China has other methods of controlling the DPRK. The other method is obvious, it's the economy.

Yes, it is a paradigm that China has successfully leveraged, and will not abandon at fortnight. In fact, we have to understand the comprehensive picture here, @That Guy , and that is the behavior of Pyongyang in regards to the requests of the 6 party member states sans China. That the United States, South Korea, Japan have leveled sanctions on North Korea and have impeded economic growth on Pyongyang would not present a catalyst for which Pyongyang would enhance cooperation with said states. If one is being sanctioned by three entities, which resulted in famine and economic stagnation, would that cultivate a spirit of cooperation and rapport , or would that cultivate a spirit of animosity, anger, desperation? I would calculate that said policy would encourage animosity-anger-desperation, would it not? Hence the ambivalent and abrasive behaviorism of Pyongyang in recent years since the enactment of the 2010 sanctions. What China has been calling for is balance and departure from pro-isolationism that sanctioning members have threatened with relative impunity to North Korea's own defensive abilities. China is the last bastion of economic survival for North Korea and the fact that Beijing is not keen on acting aggressively with Pyongyang indicates that there are thorough bilateral mechanisms in place there.

I would gamble to say that for once, South Korea and Japan should consider the Chinese recommendations --- as it seems that China's warnings on imposing sanctions would have a inverse effect --- were in fact very true.


In that aspect, I have always TRULY marveled and ADMIRED the Chinese position with Pyongyang.

 
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The crux to said argument , however, is the assumption that China will appropriate a directly interventionist position with Pyongyang. Contrary to their policy, they don't invest in disruptive internal affairs policies, and any intervention in Pyongyang would be contradictory to that external policy. In fact, i would even argue that countries like Japan and South Korea rely on China's soft , paternalistic position with Pyongyang.



Yes, it is a paradigm that China has successfully leveraged, and will not abandon at fortnight. In fact, we have to understand the comprehensive picture here, @That Guy , and that is the behavior of Pyongyang in regards to the requests of the 6 party member states sans China. That the United States, South Korea, Japan have leveled sanctions on North Korea and have impeded economic growth on Pyongyang would not present a catalyst for which Pyongyang would enhance cooperation with said states. If one is being sanctioned by three entities, which resulted in famine and economic stagnation, would that cultivate a spirit of cooperation and rapport , or would that cultivate a spirit of animosity, anger, desperation? I would calculate that said policy would encourage animosity-anger-desperation, would it not? Hence the ambivalent and abrasive behaviorism of Pyongyang in recent years since the enactment of the 2010 sanctions. What China has been calling for is balance and departure from pro-isolationism that sanctioning members have threatened with relative impunity to North Korea's own defensive abilities. China is the last bastion of economic survival for North Korea and the fact that Beijing is not keen on acting aggressively with Pyongyang indicates that there are thorough bilateral mechanisms in place there.

I would gamble to say that for once, South Korea and Japan should consider the Chinese recommendations --- as it seems that China's warnings on imposing sanctions would have a inverse effect --- were in fact very true.


In that aspect, I have always TRULY marveled and ADMIRED the Chinese position with Pyongyang.

So, I don't know if I read your comment properly, as I'm half asleep. Forgive me if I seem to be repeating you, or seem to ignore some of what you say, it's not intentional.

While I generally agree, I don't think that Beijing's position on Pyongyang has helped China itself, at least in recent years. I think there is a realization that every time there are new sanction, the fact that China keeps watering them down, has made the DPRK not only arrogant, but completely expectant that China will side with them. Quite frankly, the DPRK is taking Chinese support for granted, which is something that China is more and more upset about.

Now, I do agree that China's position on keeping the DPRK from economic collapse is in the region's interest (no one wants to deal with that mess), I don't agree that protecting the DPRK from punishment for it's bad behavior, and simply giving them a slap on the wrist is a good idea. In the end, these watered down sanctions only hurt the population, and the population has already been pacified by the state, so there is zero chance of a uprising or revolution. Sanctions, with the help and support of China, need to target the senior leadership, whom have investments all over Chinese markets, and a monopoly in the DPRK.

We tend to forget that the DPRK as a whole, despite it's eccentricity, is actually quite a rational actor. It's threats, it's unprovoked attacks, it's attempted kidnappings, are all a part of a grand strategy to test the limits of what it can get away with (seemingly a lot), and to test the South's patience. So it's not like we're actually dealing with madmen, they're just greedy dictators pretending to be mad.

You know what? I have no idea what the hell I'm saying. I don't know where I'm going with this, so if you think what I said is dumb, just ignore it.
 
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So, I don't know if I read your comment properly, as I'm half asleep. Forgive me if I seem to be repeating you, or seem to ignore some of what you say, it's not intentional.

While I generally agree, I don't think that Beijing's position on Pyongyang has helped China itself, at least in recent years. I think there is a realization that every time there are new sanction, the fact that China keeps watering them down, has made the DPRK not only arrogant, but completely expectant that China will side with them. Quite frankly, the DPRK is taking Chinese support for granted, which is something that China is more and more upset about.

Now, I do agree that China's position on keeping the DPRK from economic collapse is in the region's interest (no one wants to deal with that mess), I don't agree that protecting the DPRK from punishment for it's bad behavior, and simply giving them a slap on the wrist is a good idea. In the end, these watered down sanctions only hurt the population, and the population has already been pacified by the state. Sanctions, with the help and support of China, need to target the senior leadership, whom have investments all over Chinese markets, and a monopoly in the DPRK.

We tend to forget that the DPRK as a whole, despite it's eccentricity, is actually quite a rational actor. It's threats, it's unprovoked attacks, it's attempted kidnappings, are all a part of a grand strategy to test the limits of what it can get away with (seemingly a lot), and to test the South's patience. So it's not like we're actually dealing with madmen, they're just greedy dictators pretending to be mad.

You know what? I have no idea what the hell I'm saying. I don't know where I'm going with this, so if you think what I said is dumb, just ignore it.

Your appraisal is crystal clear and actually very prudent in regards to understanding China's positionism with North Korea, actually. I am in no ways a North Korean (or Korean), however, I can try to empathize, understand the North Korean world view in context to China. And it is this:

That Pyongyang has been assuaging Beijing to defend it in being the bulwark against Washington-led designs in the peninsula means that total dependence on most life sustaining goods and supplies comes to Pyongyang through the umbilical cord i.e China. North Korea depends on China, this sacred dependence on China is rooted in the Korean culture that places paramount emphasis on "Heyonsin" 헌신, which in Korean refers to devotion. The manifestation of
헌신 is rooted in the conceptualization of the trait 경의, which refers to 'Respect'. Ultimately you must understand that Pyongyang has retained that age old dependence and respect, devotion and loyalty to China as Pyongyang had retained the political thought of the 1919 March 1st Movement of Korean Independence Spirit , which had, at the time, emphasized the role of China in Korean independence from the looming threat at the time, Imperial Japan. This sense of 경의 (Respect) for China stems back to the historical role China has always played in Korean internal and external affairs:
  • The role of the Tang Dynasty in invoking Korean imperial house' stability
  • The role of the Tang Dynasty to help defend Korea from piracy activities by brigands from the southern Japanese island of Shikoku
  • The role of the Ming Dynasty to defend the independence of Korea and Korean people from the expeditionary spirit of Japanese Shogun Lord, Toyotomi Hideyoshi
  • The role of the Qing Dynasty to defend Korean independence of Korea and Korean people from the machinations of the Romanov Dynasty of Imperial Russia, which had designed to include Korea into the Russian Empire's Far Eastern Territories
  • The role of the Qing Dynasty in resisting Imperial Japan's machinations to impose Japanese Protectorateship over Korea , and fought a war over that paradigm. In fact the 1st Sino Japanese War was a War between China and Japan over the Chinese safeguarding of Korea and guaranteeing Korean independence as per Chinese treaty obligations to the Jeoson Dynasty (Korea's Imperial House). That Qing Dynasty China fought, tho she lost to Japan at the time, means that the Chinese devoted their external defense and resources to protect Korea -- is testament to that relationship.
  • China would resume that umbilical link with Korea during the Korean War when the People's Volunteer Army intervened on behalf of the KPA, and pushed UN Command Forces from the Yalu River into the 38th parallel
ah27_koreanwarm.jpg


@That Guy , this is the reason why we must consider the notion of dependence , respect, and devotion in regards to the unique relationship Korea has with China. Relations between Korea and China does not begin or is made unique at the start of the korean war, rather, it extends over 2 thousand years of umbilical relations , that has seen changes internally, as well as externally on the geostrategic scale. This is why we have to try to understand North Korean expectations, and that expectations is justfiably linked with and in respect to China.

Korean people (North Korean) have an expectation of China and I believe that China is torn here because with one hand she will try to foster and cultivate, nurture her historical relationship with Korea / Pyongyang , one that is far deeper and far older than what some players in the region have or can even try to understand. Then with one hand China is trying to be the cautionary , responsible partner in the global stage by understanding the security perceptions of Japan and South Korea , and to a degree, the United States and Russia. However, I believe Chinese security interests lies with a peninsula-wide rehabilitation paradigm, which i believe many North and South Koreans , in principle, agree to. Now that is the question and unique discourse to be had since there is an eloquent discourse in academia in Korea and China on whether this rehablitative paradigm be focused and transfixed on economic integration theories or on political integration theories. The onus on the Seoul-Beijing academicians is that a political integration praxis might lead to social and political unrest, rather an economic integration model would be best suited to cultivate political harmony on gradual basis and not on radical intransigence, the case in point of the economic integration model between the Federal German Republic (West Germany) and the German Democratic Republic (East Germany) seems to the ideal example, as well as the effects of integration by juxtaposing how that led to rehabilitative processes in present Germany and even in present Socialist Republic of Viet Nam.

China has an undeniable, gargantuan role here and one that both North and South Korea look to to find the firm, transformative, truly effective change that all yearn for. I think there has always been that deep aspiration and longing for Chinese leadership to rise above , and not so much on the heavy securitization alternative that Washington recommends chronically, albeit.


@TaiShang @Chinese-Dragon @Shotgunner51 @Kiss_of_the_Dragon @siegecrossbow , your input, my friends, please?




Deep Regards,

Kenji
 
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The regime’s domestic policies have crippled the North’s economy and its belligerent behaviour appears to have exasperated even its purported ally, China.

What a distorted vision of the reality on the ground. I do not know it would be empirically verified whether in the absence of sanctions the North Korean economy would be at the same levels it is right now.

The other argument is even more desperate and serving of the same regime that started the entire debacle, to begin with. Now that Japan also adopted a more developmentalist approach, would it be also blamed for Korea's present situation.

The truth is Korea is less an ally to China than Saudi Arabia or Qatar to the US is. China does not have bases in the country; its secret agencies do not sit on the boards of news stations (unlike how the US runs the entire Al-Jazeera).

The current sanctions have not only failed to curtail the nuclear ambitions and human rights abuses of the ambitious North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, they are also constraining the actions of humanitarian NGOs trying to carry out life-saving activities inside the DPRK.

I would find it objectionable, even in times of peace, the functioning of those NGOs inside the DPRK, let alone in any other non-US aligned countries.

However, credible estimates suggest that over 200,000 Iraqi children died as a result of the sanctions regime.

That's, I guess, a nice historical verification of the argument made in the OP. But, a sanctions regime is never a sanctions regime in isolation from the larger geopolitical context. It is, in a sense, not a program by itself, but an instrument to promote certain agendas -- not necessarily devilish agendas. Nevertheless, when evaluating sanctions, one needs to look at the intentions of the primary actors. Was Saddam punished by sanctions because he was a brutish dictator? What was the practical linkage between sanctions on medicine and Saddam's never-to-be-found nuclear stockpile?

  • The role of the Tang Dynasty in invoking Korean imperial house' stability
  • The role of the Tang Dynasty to help defend Korea from piracy activities by brigands from the southern Japanese island of Shikoku
  • The role of the Ming Dynasty to defend the independence of Korea and Korean people from the expeditionary spirit of Japanese Shogun Lord, Toyotomi Hideyoshi
  • The role of the Qing Dynasty to defend Korean independence of Korea and Korean people from the machinations of the Romanov Dynasty of Imperial Russia, which had designed to include Korea into the Russian Empire's Far Eastern Territories
  • The role of the Qing Dynasty in resisting Imperial Japan's machinations to impose Japanese Protectorateship over Korea , and fought a war over that paradigm. In fact the 1st Sino Japanese War was a War between China and Japan over the Chinese safeguarding of Korea and guaranteeing Korean independence as per Chinese treaty obligations to the Jeoson Dynasty (Korea's Imperial House). That Qing Dynasty China fought, tho she lost to Japan at the time, means that the Chinese devoted their external defense and resources to protect Korea -- is testament to that relationship.
  • China would resume that umbilical link with Korea during the Korean War when the People's Volunteer Army intervened on behalf of the KPA, and pushed UN Command Forces from the Yalu River into the 38th parallel

Your knowledge of the history of East Asia is unparalleled, my friend. Hats off!

However, I believe Chinese security interests lies with a peninsula-wide rehabilitation paradigm, which i believe many North and South Koreans , in principle, agree to. Now that is the question and unique discourse to be had since there is an eloquent discourse in academia in Korea and China on whether this rehablitative paradigm be focused and transfixed on economic integration theories or on political integration theories.

Very well put, indeed. Political integration, or rehabilitation, would suggest a hard-handed approach, with one of the governments forced to renounce sovereignty. This is probably the reason for the protracted crisis. It would hardly help to drop propaganda leaflets or air propaganda across the border.

Economic integrationism and incremental political rapprochement would provide a long term and gradual solution -- at least, it would end the protracted cycle of ever rising tensions.

China has an undeniable, gargantuan role here and one that both North and South Korea look to to find the firm, transformative, truly effective change that all yearn for. I think there has always been that deep aspiration and longing for Chinese leadership to rise above , and not so much on the heavy securitization alternative that Washington recommends chronically, albeit.

China does indeed proposes an alternative paradigm, just as it did with respect to Iran, and once the sides came closer to an understanding in line with China's long-held propositions, a solution was made possible. China, in Iran's case, argued to separate nuclear proliferation from nuclear energy development and trade in energy. This was in fact what the entire NPT was about. Iran had a hard line and the US had equally a hard line. In the end, a solution was made possible only through the East Asian paradigm. If that model worked for Iran, it should work for North Korea, too.

Securitization will likely harden the position of the sides as use or threat to use of force seldom works on nations and the result is often disastreous.
 
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I know, it's never as easy as it seems. Whatever happens will inevitably have negative impacts, which is why the South hasn't outright invaded the north, even though it could easily win.

Military solution to deal with NK is never a solution. The problem is the tripartite power of influence. China, US and South Korea to some extend does not want to solve this by force. Both before and after NK nuclearize.

For China, a military solution to North Korea would mean a complete hack and unstable north-eastern border, given if a Military Solution is warranted. It would be fine if China can guarantee a quick end to a war, but judging from the Military Capability China process, it would likely drag on for months. And also, it also means nuke in China North Eastern Border

For US, Military solution would means turning up the heat in North East Asia. Set aside the personnel needed to pull this off, another problem is that even if victory is guarantee, the cost is too great for such an action, and it will also upset the balance of US present in NE Asia.

For South Korea, a military end to the solution is not ideal either, as they have everything to lose, while the north have not much, and I don't simply mean the south uses force themselves. but also SK situation would not be ideal if China or US unilaterally uses force.

There is a reason why US only station a Division minus a Brigade in South Korea. It is not an offensive force, but rather an defensive force in case the North is pulling another Korean War on them.

Not blaming China, why would I? China has to look out for its own interests, as should any nation. I doubt that the brat can completely purge potential threats, and even if he does, I'm sure the Chinese have back up plans in place.

Not saying you, but people here and in real life usually blame China for the situation of North Korea, it may be the case in 1950s, not anymore. And no, if Fat Kim want, he could and will purge all potential threat. This is actually what he is doing, and he also have increasingly untrusted the Chinese. 2 of his last senior aide executed was close to China. And that's the only one you know about, he could have purged 10, 100 or even 1000 of his aide which everyone are none the wiser.

I think the policy change happened a long time ago. Let's not forget that these purges didn't start during the brat's era, it started during the close to the end of his father's rule, when il became super paranoid about state collapse, and his family infighting after his death.

Purge happened all the time, right after WW2 when Fat Kim's father on the throne. The problem is who the man purge, and while Fat Kim's father used to only purge people not align with him or people he don't trust. But he never touched those who have connection with China. Fat Kim's father is not that stupid as to bite the hand that feed him. Not his son tho.

The last series of purge saw a few member close to China gone. Folks like Jang Song-thaek and Choe Ryong Hae were both quite close to China (Especially General Jang) but both were purged. Fat Kim has now been entering a phase where he trusted no one.

I don't think a soft coup is what the Chinese are looking for, they'll likely enlist the help of a senior military officer to forcibly kick out the brat and his family. People tend to forget that despite the military purge of senior officers, the army has quite a bit of power in the country, which is something that Kim Jong Il himself was paranoid about, which is why he enacted the "military first" approach.

Make no mistake, if even one senior officer within the DPRK military is bought by China, the brat can kiss his *** goodbye.

I would like to remain optimistic, I really am, but I just cannot agree with you on this. Firstly you seems to underestimate the status of Fat Kim within NK Military. Secondly, It's quite hard to turn anyone on Fat Kim, not with this extreme regime. People turn because of two things either financial gain or frustration. Most likely unless China have more accurate intel before the North Korean themselves does, people who are frustrated with the regime would probably be killed by Fat Kim first. And the money factor never actually really exist in North Korea.

I think it's already been mentioned in the past that the Chinese are perfectly fine with SK taking over NK, as long as their own strategic interests are taken into consideration (US military bases in the region). SK has been rumored to be actually thinking long and hard about giving into Chinese demands of letting go of US military bases, as long certain conditions are met.

...but that's all speculation. In the end, you're probably completely right.

Don't know where you heard that rumour from. But most likely it won't come true.

For SK to military take over (There are no other way), SK alone could not possibly able to do the job conventionally. The North and south border is too close and any sort or from of invasion would mean south of the border will be level. That is before the North Decided to use nuke.

For SK to attack NK, a full count need to be done (Full count is a military operation that take out or neutralize all the threat within its AO (quite like what Israel does in the beginning of 6 days war) and ROKAF and ROKA intelligence does not process of this capability. US does but A.) They will not have enough resource to pull it out without increasing military present. B.) Would US wanted to?

Another factor would be China, China could potential help SK for a Full count, but a military operation initiate from South Korea will not benefit anyone except China, if South Korea really want to invade the North, would China send help openly? If not, then I don't see how and why South Korea would want to take over the North themselves.

Military solution initiate by the South will not benefit them, they knew it, that's why this is out.

I understand what you're sayin, but let's take some things into consideration first...

The problem with NK's nuclear weapons are that a) they haven't been successful at miniaturizing their warheads enough to have a dependable and quickly deploy-able nuclear missile (mostly due to reluctance by China to share it's expertise). b)They only have between 5-15 nuclear weapons (none of which are reliable and quickly deploy-able), all of which can easily been taken out, if proper recon is done properly.

At this stage, the Nuclear Threat the North Process is not a lot to the US, as I told some Chinese TTA about it some time ago where he keep saying it is a threat to US and US is simply gutless to take any action.

Problem is, while the Nuclear threat post not much of a threat, it still are, especially to those who neighbouring North Korea. It's never how much nuclear weapon one country process you should fear. But How a country use this weapon It never the one with 1,000 warhead pointing to other country you should fear, but it always the country which have a few which are crazy enough to use them. What you are thinking is conventionally and traditionally, what if the NK regime were using the nuke to make dirty bomb for a false flag attack?

The question is, what NK can do with the Nuclear Weapon, not how many and how easy they can be intercept or destroy.

Before I go on, this part is (admittedly) a bit of a stretch on my part, but...

Why mention this? It shows that the nuclear program was never (until recently) on top of the agenda between the two nation's relationship. The fact that China allowed the DPRK to develop weapons, but never procure Chinese technology to help in its efforts shows me that China has other methods of controlling the DPRK. The other method is obvious, it's the economy.

The DPRK, despite economic cooperation with the South (cash cow for the north), is and has always been heavily reliant with China. If it wasn't for the Chinese, the DPRK economy would have completely collapsed by now.
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Just a thought: The funny thing is, if the DPRK declared independence, liberalized it's economy, and got rid of it's nuclear ambitions, it could probably become quite a well off nation.

To be fair, China was looking out of its own interest to side with NK during Korean war. In Many aspect and retrospect, it is basically a wrong move by any account. First, because China diverted troop and resources to help the North Korean, the same resource which can be used to recapture Taiwan when they were still shaking their legs, will they succeed is another problem, but that is nonetheless a chance. Also, in retrospect, had the South Completely folded the North back in Korea war, it would have been a unified Korea based on the regime to the south. US will not have an excuse to station troop in the south and since they will regardless station troop in japan, this act will push an American-Free unified Korea into Chinese hand. Basically, by helping North Korea, the Chinese have nothing in return, but simply giving and excuse for the American to station in South Korea and pas over a chance to retake Taiwan. And now, North Korean have gone Nuclear.

You may be right, for now, the NK Nuclear threat is minimal, but as time passes, it will most definitely increase. I am not sure what you said actually is a good thing about avoiding the north Economic Collapse. But most definitely for North Korea now is to use the Chinese aide to buy time so they can finish their nuclear ambition. And when that time come, China will have no authority over NK. On the other hand, China can do nothing right now. Unless SK is stupid enough to invade the North, there are no way you can get rid of Fat kim without some risk over China-NK relationship.
 
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That's the point. The hope is that the sanctions will force the population to take action and kick out the Kim dynasty. The problem is that China will push for a coup before that would ever have a chance of occurring. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Un is the last member of his Dynasty to rule the DPRK; with the brat's constant belligerence, China is not just annoyed, but down right angry at the DPRK. I wouldn't be surprised if China pushed for a coup sooner or later.

Meh, that's what the west keep saying. Let's get the people pissed off at the leader who controls the military and let the people use sticks and stones against an army with modern weapons. :lol:

No six year old kid in China believe this BS.
 
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I don't think anyone really cares people in North Korea, especially from the south. If they do, they should be willing to sacrifice their own lives in an all-out military campaign to topple the north.
 
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