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Rakhine crisis covers inner conflict
Larry Jagan, October 3, 2017
Myanmar Army Chief, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi
Controlling the violence in Rakhine masks a battle for supremacy within government. The military and the civilian leader, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing and Aung San Suu Kyi are at loggerheads over how to proceed, though publicly they are maintaining a dignified show of unity. The military wants to declare a state of emergency in Rakhine to increase their control of events there. This is something that the Lady – as she more commonly known – has resisted since the latest outbreak of violence in late August.
It still dominates the government agenda, behind the scenes. Aung San Suu Kyi cancelled her visit to the UN General Assembly because of it. At the time president Htin Kyaw was undergoing medical treatment and if she left the country, the first vice president Myint Swe – the military’s appointment to the executive — would be in control of the government, making it almost certain he would approve any move by the army to declare a state of emergency. So, the Lady remained in place in Naypyidaw to ensure this did not happen.
But this is only one aspect of the battle. Behind the scenes the pro-democracy leader fears the army chief, Senior Min Aung Hlaing is preparing his bid for the presidency, after the next elections in 2020. The army boss’s term of office is up in the next few months, according to government insiders, who say that Aung Sa Suu Kyi only agreed to extend his term for two years, when she was preparing to form the government in early 2016. As far as Min Aung Hlaing – and the military – is concerned, it was extended for five years to the end of until 2020 – coinciding with the next elections.
But the unfortunate reality is that the continued international criticism of Myanmar over Rakhine, and the personal attacks on Aung San Suu Kyi’s reputation, is playing right into the hands of the Myanmar military. It has severely weakened her position, and significantly increases the prospect of Min Aung Hlaing being the country’s next president.
This apparent difference of opinion can only be resolved at a meeting of the National Defense and Security Council (NDSC), something which Aung San Suu Kyi is also resisting. It has not met since she formed the government in early 2016. The military commander has been urging her to convene the Council – though it is actually chaired by the president – to discuss the situation in Rakhine, and agree a common approach.
Only the NDSC has the authority to declare a state of emergency, according to government insiders. While two top level meetings have been held on Rakhine – one last October after the initial “terrorist attacks” and another more recently – but the NDSC has yet to be convened. Even the former military supremo, Than Shwe, recently suggested that it was time for the Council to discuss the Rakhine situation. But Aung San Suu Kyi is likely to continue to resist calls for it to meet: largely because she will not control the agenda there – the military will.
The NDSC is made up of the president the two vice presidents – one of whom was appointed by the military – the military commander and his deputy, the speakers of the lower and upper houses of parliament, the three cabinet ministers appointed by the military – defense, border and home affairs, and the foreign minister — Aung San Suu Kyi. This gives the military the edge in numbers, though decisions are usually made on a consensus basis, according to senior military sources, with intimate knowledge of its workings.
Strategically Aung San Suu Kyi is preparing her party — the National League for Democracy (NLD) — for the next elections. She is aware that there are two major hurdles looming – the activities of the nationalist Buddhist organization, Ma Ba Tha or the Association for the Protection of Race and Religion, and the military. She has sent messages to the central committee and the rank and file to be both patient and vigilant, through the speaker Win Myint, who has also been given he role of party spokesman. She does not want to be further isolated in her tussle with Min Aung Hlaing – and further unrest and agitation elsewhere in Myanmar might hand the military chief the initiative.
The political battle is now about to hot up. The crucial concern is constitutional change. Though members of the NLD central committee insisted recently that constitutional change before 2020 was on the cards, Aung San Suu Kyi at least is resigned to the fact that it wont happen. This means a quarter of the MPs in all parliaments, national and regional, will still be appointed by the military. This will make it difficult for the NLD to form the next government – post-2020 – as they cannot expect a repeat of their overwhelming electoral victory in 2015. Already their popularity in the country’s ethnic areas is declining, as evidenced in the by-election results earlier this year.
So Min Aung Hlaing’s bid for the presidency has a head start – the 25% of MPs who are serving soldiers. He only needs to pick up another 25% to be a shoe in for president. He is already courting the pro-military Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) – created by the former military leader, Than Shwe and formed the previous government. He talks regularly with the current head of the USDP, Than Htay – another former general – according to military sources. The USDP is already allied with the military perspective – as seen by their MPs in parliament. The recently joined he military MPs in calling for the convening of the NDSC to discuss Rakhine. So their support for Min Aung Hlaing’s political bid for residency is assured. The general would then hope to pick up some support from other political parties, and even ethnic representatives.
There is no doubting Min Aung Hlaing’s political ambitions, according to former military officers who know him well. And the Rakhine problems have helped to boost his profile, especially nationally. Social media is presenting him unashamedly as a “national hero” and he is no doubt basking in this “new found” glory. What is worse is that he is increasing stretching the international state as a statesman and leader.
His recent trips to Europe, India and Japan highlight his position as an accepted leader of Myanmar. In Europe – Austria, Belgium, Germany and Italy – earlier this year, he met the civilian leaders of all these countries, something that is generally unusual, and in stark contrast to a few ears ago when Myanmar’s military leaders were banned from entering these countries. Similarly in India and Japan, he met the prime ministers: Narendra Modi and Shinzo Abe. In both cases, the civilian government leader seldom or ever meets a visiting military commander.
Privately Aung San Suu Kyi was irked by the reception he received in these countries, and feared he was being treated as “the leader” of Myanmar, according to government insiders. But the unfortunate reality is that the continued international criticism of Myanmar over Rakhine, and the personal attacks on Aung San Suu Kyi’s reputation, is playing right into the hands of the Myanmar military. It has severely weakened her position, and significantly increases the prospect of Min Aung Hlaing being the country’s next president.
http://southasianmonitor.com/2017/10/03/rakhine-crisis-covers-inner-conflict/
Larry Jagan, October 3, 2017
Myanmar Army Chief, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi
Controlling the violence in Rakhine masks a battle for supremacy within government. The military and the civilian leader, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing and Aung San Suu Kyi are at loggerheads over how to proceed, though publicly they are maintaining a dignified show of unity. The military wants to declare a state of emergency in Rakhine to increase their control of events there. This is something that the Lady – as she more commonly known – has resisted since the latest outbreak of violence in late August.
It still dominates the government agenda, behind the scenes. Aung San Suu Kyi cancelled her visit to the UN General Assembly because of it. At the time president Htin Kyaw was undergoing medical treatment and if she left the country, the first vice president Myint Swe – the military’s appointment to the executive — would be in control of the government, making it almost certain he would approve any move by the army to declare a state of emergency. So, the Lady remained in place in Naypyidaw to ensure this did not happen.
But this is only one aspect of the battle. Behind the scenes the pro-democracy leader fears the army chief, Senior Min Aung Hlaing is preparing his bid for the presidency, after the next elections in 2020. The army boss’s term of office is up in the next few months, according to government insiders, who say that Aung Sa Suu Kyi only agreed to extend his term for two years, when she was preparing to form the government in early 2016. As far as Min Aung Hlaing – and the military – is concerned, it was extended for five years to the end of until 2020 – coinciding with the next elections.
But the unfortunate reality is that the continued international criticism of Myanmar over Rakhine, and the personal attacks on Aung San Suu Kyi’s reputation, is playing right into the hands of the Myanmar military. It has severely weakened her position, and significantly increases the prospect of Min Aung Hlaing being the country’s next president.
This apparent difference of opinion can only be resolved at a meeting of the National Defense and Security Council (NDSC), something which Aung San Suu Kyi is also resisting. It has not met since she formed the government in early 2016. The military commander has been urging her to convene the Council – though it is actually chaired by the president – to discuss the situation in Rakhine, and agree a common approach.
Only the NDSC has the authority to declare a state of emergency, according to government insiders. While two top level meetings have been held on Rakhine – one last October after the initial “terrorist attacks” and another more recently – but the NDSC has yet to be convened. Even the former military supremo, Than Shwe, recently suggested that it was time for the Council to discuss the Rakhine situation. But Aung San Suu Kyi is likely to continue to resist calls for it to meet: largely because she will not control the agenda there – the military will.
The NDSC is made up of the president the two vice presidents – one of whom was appointed by the military – the military commander and his deputy, the speakers of the lower and upper houses of parliament, the three cabinet ministers appointed by the military – defense, border and home affairs, and the foreign minister — Aung San Suu Kyi. This gives the military the edge in numbers, though decisions are usually made on a consensus basis, according to senior military sources, with intimate knowledge of its workings.
Strategically Aung San Suu Kyi is preparing her party — the National League for Democracy (NLD) — for the next elections. She is aware that there are two major hurdles looming – the activities of the nationalist Buddhist organization, Ma Ba Tha or the Association for the Protection of Race and Religion, and the military. She has sent messages to the central committee and the rank and file to be both patient and vigilant, through the speaker Win Myint, who has also been given he role of party spokesman. She does not want to be further isolated in her tussle with Min Aung Hlaing – and further unrest and agitation elsewhere in Myanmar might hand the military chief the initiative.
The political battle is now about to hot up. The crucial concern is constitutional change. Though members of the NLD central committee insisted recently that constitutional change before 2020 was on the cards, Aung San Suu Kyi at least is resigned to the fact that it wont happen. This means a quarter of the MPs in all parliaments, national and regional, will still be appointed by the military. This will make it difficult for the NLD to form the next government – post-2020 – as they cannot expect a repeat of their overwhelming electoral victory in 2015. Already their popularity in the country’s ethnic areas is declining, as evidenced in the by-election results earlier this year.
So Min Aung Hlaing’s bid for the presidency has a head start – the 25% of MPs who are serving soldiers. He only needs to pick up another 25% to be a shoe in for president. He is already courting the pro-military Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) – created by the former military leader, Than Shwe and formed the previous government. He talks regularly with the current head of the USDP, Than Htay – another former general – according to military sources. The USDP is already allied with the military perspective – as seen by their MPs in parliament. The recently joined he military MPs in calling for the convening of the NDSC to discuss Rakhine. So their support for Min Aung Hlaing’s political bid for residency is assured. The general would then hope to pick up some support from other political parties, and even ethnic representatives.
There is no doubting Min Aung Hlaing’s political ambitions, according to former military officers who know him well. And the Rakhine problems have helped to boost his profile, especially nationally. Social media is presenting him unashamedly as a “national hero” and he is no doubt basking in this “new found” glory. What is worse is that he is increasing stretching the international state as a statesman and leader.
His recent trips to Europe, India and Japan highlight his position as an accepted leader of Myanmar. In Europe – Austria, Belgium, Germany and Italy – earlier this year, he met the civilian leaders of all these countries, something that is generally unusual, and in stark contrast to a few ears ago when Myanmar’s military leaders were banned from entering these countries. Similarly in India and Japan, he met the prime ministers: Narendra Modi and Shinzo Abe. In both cases, the civilian government leader seldom or ever meets a visiting military commander.
Privately Aung San Suu Kyi was irked by the reception he received in these countries, and feared he was being treated as “the leader” of Myanmar, according to government insiders. But the unfortunate reality is that the continued international criticism of Myanmar over Rakhine, and the personal attacks on Aung San Suu Kyi’s reputation, is playing right into the hands of the Myanmar military. It has severely weakened her position, and significantly increases the prospect of Min Aung Hlaing being the country’s next president.
http://southasianmonitor.com/2017/10/03/rakhine-crisis-covers-inner-conflict/
