'No more onion import from India'

[Protest_again]

Actually exports increased in December 2019 from the same month last year.
GDP Forecasts are now being revised for growth to be around 7.8% for this fiscal.
BD economy is fundamentally pretty strong still.

There is something wrong here. Usually revenue growth will be in line with nominal growth. Nominal growth of BD per your govt statistics is well over 12%, yet revenue growth is less than 2%. There is something fishy here.

Your exports are still 7% lower than previous year when you look cumulative from July-Dec. Thats not a sign of growing economy. Your entire growth was based on humungous public infrastructure spending (relative to your economy). Per my understanding, there is going to be trouble down the road if low revenue collection persist.

 

[UKBengali]

There is something wrong here. Usually revenue growth will be in line with nominal growth. Nominal growth of BD per your govt statistics is well over 12%, yet revenue growth is less than 2%. There is something fishy here.

Your exports are still 7% lower than previous year when you look cumulative from july-dec. Thats not a sign of growing economy. Your entire growth was based on humungous public infrastructure spending. Per my understanding, there is trouble down the road.

No as exports are only a little over 10% of GDP.
Infrastructure spending is not that much and when you add in the private sector it is only 6% of GDP. BD total debt is still only 28% of GDP and debt repayments are less than 10% of government revenues.
BD has little debt and when you couple that with low defence spending it is in a better fiscal position than other S Asian countries.

 

[Protest_again]

No as exports are only a little over 10% of GDP.
Infrastructure spending is not that much and when you add in the private sector it is only 6% of GDP. BD total debt is still only 28% of GDP and debt repayments are less than 10% of government revenues.
BD has little debt and when you couple that with low defence spending it is in a better fiscal position than other S Asian countries.

I keep explaining it to everyone. Its the serviceability that matters most. As such with such meager revenues, BD can't take on more loans unless it cuts down on already budgeted developmental projects. It can do so, if there was a reason to believe higher revenue in the next year. Not when that is in doubt.

 

[mmr]

Sure no problem. I just want to add a reference here. Bangladesh is quite poor in raising tax revenues. It needs to improve a lot.

Here is the public finances of my state. It has a population of about 4.9 crores. Look at the revenues.

View attachment 601643

So you see what I am saying. Its only $150 billion dollar economy.

I agree with you. Yes bd has to improve revenue collection to sustain economic growth.
Bd government has to invest more on digitization of payment. Ppl not willing to pay tax unless you catch them.

 

[UKBengali]

I keep explaining it to everyone. Its the serviceability that matters most. As such with such meager revenues, BD can't take on more loans unless it cuts down on already budgeted developmental projects. It can do so, if there was a reason to believe higher revenue in the next year. Not when that is in doubt.

Yes as I said debt repayments are less than 10% of BD government revenues.

 

[bluesky]

Indian economy will take another 5 years to catch current bd growth of 8%. Although i doubt it will ever reach 8 percent in coming decade. Seems india will get struck in to middle income trap.

No, it will get stuck at a lower-middle-income trap never to come out again.

You are really delusional. Lol, IT outsourcing, which company has its base in Bangladesh? Google? Microsoft? Dell? IBM?. All of these companies have their largest workforce in India.

Do not worry about all these big names coming to BD. They will come for sure and will vacate India like we are vacating the Indian supply of onion. Wait till it happens and you start crying like babies.

 

[GHALIB]

https://www.dhakatribune.com/bangla...ter-we-won-t-import-onions-from-india-anymore




The Rangpur-4 MP also assured there would be no crisis of soybean oil and sugar in Ramadan

Bangladesh will stop importing onions from India from now on, Commerce Minister Tipu Munshi has said.

"Last year's export ban without any notice was a lesson for us, which prompted the government to boost local production by providing incentives to farmers," he said on Saturday, speaking to the media at his Rangpur residence, reports Bangla Tribune.

The Rangpur-4 MP assured there would be no crisis of soybean oil and sugar in Ramadan, adding: “We have initiated measures to triple imports of soybean oil.”

According to him, locally produced sugar is enough to meet demand in Ramadan.

The price of onions skyrocketed in Bangladesh when India banned its export of onions in September last year, with immediate effect.

India exported 2.2 million tons of fresh onions in fiscal year 2018-19 up until Mar 30, according to a Reuters report.

During that time, Bangladesh imported 578,111 tons of the kitchen staple from India, according to data compiled by India’s Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority.

Bangladesh's dependency on India for imported onions created the onion crisis last year. Onion prices crossed Tk 250 a kg in local markets at one point.

In a bid to tackle the crisis, the government started open market sales across the country and imported onions from Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan, and Myanmar.

Bangladesh consumes more onions than the country produces annually.

According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, the country's onion production in 2016-17 fiscal was 1.86 million tons against a demand for 2.4 million tons.

In August last year, the commerce ministry said the country had 1.6 million tons of onions in stock and that the quantity was good enough to meet local demand.

Bangladesh is eighth on the Food and Agricultural Organization's (FAO) list of top ten countries producing onions.

China tops the FAO list with annual production of 24.28 million tons, followed by India at 22.42 million tons, USA 3.73 million tons, Iran 2.37 million tons, Egypt 2.37 million tons, Russian Federation 2.13 million tons, Turkey 2.13 million tons, Bangladesh 1.86 million tons, Pakistan 1.83 million tons, and The Netherlands 1.77 million tons.

india itself is facing onion crisis .

 

[mmr]

india itself is facing onion crisis .

Why all brown ppl have to eat so much onion? I dont understand. In Bangladesh every one is whinning about onion. No country will export if they face shortage them self lol.

 

[VikingRaider]

india itself is facing onion crisis .

Yes and when their crisis gone, they want to sell their almost rotten onion to us as if Bangladesh is Indian dustbin? Truly condemnable!

Why all brown ppl have to eat so much onion? I dont understand. In Bangladesh every one is whinning about onion. No country will export if they face shortage them self lol.

I am surprised that since when Hindus started consuming so much onion that India can't export when we needed it? Hindus shouldn't be very fond of onion as their religion discourage eating onion, garlic etc. So something is fishy when India claim that they had crisis!

And also India exported onion to Maldives and not to Bangladesh. It was a clear messages of blackmailing. Thankfully Bangladesh govt is relealizing the truth. Better late than never.

 

[mmr]

Yes and when their crisis gone, they want to sell their almost rotten onion to us as if Bangladesh is Indian dustbin? Truly condemnable!


I am surprised that since when Hindus started consuming so much onion that India can't export when we needed it? Hindus shouldn't be very fond of onion as their religion discourage eating onion, garlic etc. So something is fishy when India claim that they had crisis!

And also India exported onion to Maldives and not to Bangladesh. It was a clear messages of blackmailing. Thankfully Bangladesh govt is relealizing the truth. Better late than never.

Oh i didnt know they exporting to Maldives. Then yes bd should stop importing. Or try to diversify import.

 

[bluesky]

india itself is facing onion crisis .

All through many years, BD was importing onions from India. Last year the production was low in India but the Indian govt had no data and no advance knowledge and no survey report on the production of this item. Suddenly, it stopped export making our people desperate to find other sources. Meanwhile the price went up to Taka250 per kg.

By all considerations, India remains at the bottom of 3rd world countries where vital data are not compiled by the bureaucrats and no forecast on agriculture commodities is made.

Why all brown ppl have to eat so much onion? I dont understand. In Bangladesh every one is whinning about onion. No country will export if they face shortage them self lol.

It is no wonder that people eat whatever is found in the land. For example, SL people consume coconut oil in curry, but we use mustard/soyabean oil. In Europe, people eat potato/wheat and we eat rice. No relation to the complexion of people.

 

[Homo Sapiens]

You do not understand how debt is raised. Bangladesh tax revenue is $25 billion dollars. You have as much to service loans. For India it is $550 billion dollars. So India revenues are 22 times yours. So India has better ability to service such loans.

That is why India's credit rating is still better than Bangladesh. India can still raise more loans at lower interest rate than Bangladesh from outside.

View attachment 601622

View attachment 601623

Look at the difference between your revenues and expenses.

$24.36 billion in revenues but spends some $62 billion in budget. You are spendi ng more than twice your revenues.This is managed through loans. This can only continue if there is corresponding increase in tax revenues. Like I said, your tax revenue growth budgeted was to be 18% but acheived only 2%

Now look at India's. Tax revenues $550 billion spends $750 billion. States generate another $250 billion in revenues.

If India spend in the same ratio as Bangladesh, it could have been $1.3 trillion central budget. Our tax revenues have been growing double digits for past 20 years, except may be this year.

This wikipedia data are outdated and perhaps edited by some amateur. See here the detail summery of budget for 2018-19 and 2019-20 for Bangladesh.
http://www.eblsecurities.com/AM_Resources/AM_ResearchReports/Macro/EBLSL Budget Review 2019-20.pdf

Actual revenue collection in 2018-19 fiscal year(last completed year) for Bangladesh was 3.166 trillion Taka or 37.5 billion dollar against target of 3.392 trillion Taka(40.1 billion dollar). For current fiscal year revenue target is 3.778 trillion Taka(44.7 billion dollar). The actual spending in 2018-19 was 4.425 trillion Taka(52.4 billion dollar) and current fiscal years target is 5.232 trillion Taka(62.0 billion dollar). If we take the last completed year for actual implemented budget then we can see that the spending was 52.4/37.5x100=139.7% or 39.7% higher than revenue collection. This is quite normal and not as wildly different than those wikipedia edit suggesting.

It is true that Bangladesh is much behind than India in case of revenue collection and budget spending. But the revenue collection is not 30 times higher than Bangladesh as you are suggesting but 14 times which is still very low.

Contrary to your suggestion there will be no 250 billion dollar Indian states revenue in addition of $550 billion, because this $550 billion include both central and state revenue collection, because this 550 billion figure is more than the entire Indian central govt. spending by a wide margin, Indian central govt. spending is around 400 billion dollar in this fiscal year. While entire budget(central+states) for last fiscal 2018-19 for India was $730 billion dollar.

Bangladesh's budget spending is only about 18 percent of GDP compared for 27 percent in India. This is one of the crucial factor for below per infrastructure development in Bangladesh, specially the urban infrastructure.

 

[UKBengali]

This wikipedia data are outdated and perhaps edited by some amateur. See here the detail summery of budget for 2018-19 and 2019-20 for Bangladesh.
http://www.eblsecurities.com/AM_Resources/AM_ResearchReports/Macro/EBLSL Budget Review 2019-20.pdf

Actual revenue collection in 2018-19 fiscal year(last completed year) for Bangladesh was 3.166 trillion Taka or 37.5 billion dollar against target of 3.392 trillion Taka(40.1 billion dollar). For current fiscal year revenue target is 3.778 trillion Taka(44.7 billion dollar). The actual spending in 2018-19 was 4.425 trillion Taka(52.4 billion dollar) and current fiscal years target is 5.232 trillion Taka(62.0 billion dollar). If we take the last completed year for actual implemented budget then we can see that the spending was 52.4/37.5x100=139.7% or 39.7% higher than revenue collection. This is quite normal and not as wildly different than those wikipedia edit suggesting.

It is true that Bangladesh is much behind than India in case of revenue collection and budget spending. But the revenue collection is not 30 times higher than Bangladesh as you are suggesting but 14 times which is still very low. Contrary to your suggestion there will be no 250 billion dollar state revenue in addition of $550 billion, because this $550 billion include both central and state revenue collection, because this 550 billion figure is more than the entire central govt. spending by a wide margin, Indian central govt. spending is around 400 billion dollar in this fiscal year. While entire budget(central+states) for last fiscal 2018-19 for India was $730 billion dollar.

Bangladesh's budget spending is only about 18 percent of GDP compared for 27 percent in India. This is one of the crucial factor for below per infrastructure development in Bangladesh, specially the urban infrastructure.

Good post but I disagree about why BD is so behind in infrastructure.
That is mainly because BD has only recently started approaching India per capita income. It did not have the fiscal capacity to borrow say 10 years ago that it is able to do now.
Within 10 years, infrastructure of BD and India would look very similar as BD is ramping up from a much lower base now.
Already in areas like electricity production it is close to India and the government is now slowing down building new power plants as so much capacity will come online from the current ones in construction.

 

[bdslph]

NAH WE DONT NEED INDIAN ONION WE GOT THE MORE YUMMY ONE "RAJAKAR" ONION FROM PAKISTAN TASTE THE BEST

well i was happy and shock to see Pakistan ok emergency onion sale to bd

last batch of indian onion not good maybe syndicate working some made money out of it ....

wish Pakistan and India sales more onion to us to make the price lower

 

[Homo Sapiens]

That is mainly because BD has only recently started approaching BD per capita income. It did not have the fiscal capacity to borrow say 10 years ago that it is able to do now.
Within 10 years, infrastructure of BD and India would look very similar as BD is ramping up from a much lower base now.

Lower economic base is a factor so is lack of foreign borrowing for infrastructure in earlier times. Lack of foreign borrowing is also related to weak revenue collection, as foreign lenders are not very fond of lending money to the govt. whose tax collection is low and struggle ends meet. These things are inter related. Another factor is, then China was not a big lender.

Foreign borrowing for infrastructure development is not sustainable unless our revenue collection ramp up in the coming years. Otherwise we will be in a serious trouble.