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Maybe you stopped reading what happened after the General Yahya and Ayub left? Here let me help you.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_dams_and_reservoirs_in_Pakistan
Ayub in my books is the perpetrator of the original Sin . Who derailed Pakistan Forever.
The Graph is for Final outflow to Sea, but you are basicaly correct in that the amount in spikes represents the flood years of 2010 for example.
most estimate put water loss at 40% - 50% thru canal leakages. There is no talk or will to fix the canal system and its not a rallying cry anyone can use. and whoever will do it will take decades to do , and there will be no mention of Megawatts.
Water is free ( no cost except a nominal land based tax) . So there is no concept of drip irrigration or will. whoever gets water gets it whoever doesnt doesnt ( read last user in chain ).
So this is where investigations are needed, to find where it is worst of all in the canal network. If anything, the dam fund should pay for this, and save as much water here. I know it is not "sexy" to fix canals, and people love seeing mega dams, but this is the heart of the issue.
Any ideas/designs on what would actually fix the leakage from the canals?, and estimates into what it would cost?
In fact one of the reasons behind the Civil War in the East Pak was water!!! Pak wanted to build a counter barrage to the Indian one started earlier on the Ganges in the late 60s. If built it'd flood most of the West Bengal under 6 feet water during the rainy season!!! Moreover, it'd seriously hamper the navigation of the Calcutta port!!! Pak side floated the contract and the big construction companies, which built the barrages in the West Pak, hit the ground!!! The Indian side wanted to negotiate, and Pak agreed but the contract related activities continued!!! Immediately, India activated her minion traitor scums, headed by Mujib!!! The rest is history....#DamKaDushmanPakistanKaDushman
This is a formality and an eventuality. Dams will be built even if it takes a war for it.
No Life survives without water. Not even Bhutto. Its a fact of Life.
Women will be women
No major work on canals has been done since they were Constructed under the British. That might give you an idea of when its going to happen.
My Guess is it would require about $2B annually on a continuous basis to maintain the system results wouldn't be apparent until 5-6 years.
Ive seen 1980s study giving the expenditure at that time being spent was around $150 million annual. Same study said , it should be doubled. given the age of the study and conversion of the dollar is why my guess is 2Bn. Financing can easily be done by charging agricultural users a sustainable rate.Farmer wont like it , but it will also force them to use water more efficiently and plant more premiu crops rather than wheat. its a bitter pill.
its not an issue of cost , rather of will with no apparent outcome to show MW output. All the Dams are silting and in the same sorry state as canals.
The Asian development bank issued loans of precisely $2 Billion per year for the next three years. If that money were to go into Removing Silt from the current Dams and Rehabilitating the Canals system, as well as expanding it, that would maximize its efficiency. Putting the burden on the farmers will slow down the work. What the farmers can do is be forced to use the water efficiently. They have a fixed amount of water they can draw from the water supply, and must buy equipment to implement drip irrigation or whatever the most efficient method to maximize productivity relative to water usage allocated to them. If they produce more, they are reimbursed more but the government and they can pay off their investments in their farms.
Banks can offer farmers micro-loans to modernize their farms, but with strict oversight into how the money can be spend, and demonstrating the farms are improving on a quarterly basis. This is where any digital currency would come to play, as it will only be allowed to be spend in authorized dealers of irrigation farm equipment. Next our industries can start making the latest irrigation equipment with venture capital. This cycle will speed up economic activity.
Agriculture is our dominant industry, it needs to be maximized. IT employs the most people, and we earn the most foreign reserves from it. Value added factories can pop-up in our country as we have a rapid increase in agricultural output.
Its a Continuous process of maintenance . So taking a short term loan to do the work for three years and abandoning it before there is any visiable of improvement is futile. ongoing process requires ongoing financing. cost of maintenance of a infrastructure must come from its users , otherwise its a subsidy model which fosters inefficiency. Until farmers realize that the water they use is a commodity the usage patterns will always remain the same. Until and Unless Water metering is installed for agriculture this is a futile exercise which just kicks the ball a little further down.
If in fact somehow someone manages to do it, there is other long term benefits as well. a continuous process will foster support industry , If farmers are paying the value of water, and indeed drip irrigation is adapted, that too will will evolutionise the rural scenery into a semi industrial scenery becasue there is maintenance required on these systems.
There is lots of benefits , but all of them are long term.
Dam Silt is again a lost issue as I saw a news article recently regarding Tarbela Dam which stated that "China has said that desilting dam will cost more than building a new one". So the political will to undertake a long term is not there.
95% of the country's water is used in agriculture, if the water crisis is to be resolved , any reasonable person would try to resolve it where the 95% of use it. Incidentally agriculture accounts for about 40% of economy.
I agree it is best if the User pays for the resources provided. Metering would determine how much is used, but do you think the farmer would be able to afford to pay for their share of Canal Maintenance and New Irrigation Methods like Drip Irrigation? Are the margins there, or do the Farmers need a short term subsidy to convert over to modern irrigation techniques, which would increase production and allow them to pay their share of the maintenance, and sustained purchases of modern irrigation equipment?
Currently they pay around US$1.5 to $2.0 per acre( annual ). If they cant pay around 10$ per acre which is I think One study i read somewhere suggests, They really should be Doing something else. Or maybe there can be an actual metered system also where someone might plant crops which use less water. I know there are several indigenous crops such as capers which no one plants because there is no concept of agricultural produt and only wild collection is done.
I believe some will not be able to . But its because they are planting the wrong crops. Low Value/ easy to plant crops are the order of day( Wheat / Rice ) . Wheat/ Rice are known to be the worst for Water use.
Thats exactly why its a bitter pill.
agriculture is 20% of the economy , but employs 40% of the population. But this 20% is heavily subsidized by the other 80% of economy.
agriculture is 40% of the economy , but employs 60% of the population. But this 40% is heavily subsidized by the other 60% of economy.more investment should be made in other sectors to get people employed there and for agriculture to carry its own weight.
I am also not a fan of Ayub.. he put ZAB on us..I am not a huge fan of Ayub and primary reason for that was they way he treated Fatima Jinnah. But he was alot better than all the people that replaced him. Zia in my books is the main reason that we are in this mess today.
what happened after the General Yahya and Ayub left? Here let me help you.
So Metering the water will be meet with a hue and a cry if they are not given an alternative to be prepared to plant. I agree subsides should be cut as much as possible, and farmers should carry their own weight. What crops can farmers be educated on that will give the most $/water supply?
It doesn't have to be indigenous (even though thats preferable), but a product that will earn the most in the international markets.