Next war with opponents from Sangh pariwar will be different

[Albatross]

So my questions are on a statement "Pakistan's next war may be fought with an opponent whose leader is from RSS lead Sangh pariwar unlike previous wars where opponents were lead by Congress, so we need change of strategy"

1. There are groups of people who read past data of 1947, 1965 and 1971 wars. During these wars civilian areas were minimally target if not target at all. So according to data they predict that in next war both armies won't target the civilians again. Modi expressing praise for Indian army and comparing their army with worst war criminals Israeli forces in his speech. Will Indian army follow Sangh pariwar or congress strategy ?
2. Will atomic bombs be used on cities and does Pakistan has any anti ballistic missile to protect citizens and deployed in cities?
3. What is Pakistan's answer to Brahmos missile ? I know Pakistan has missiles itself and tit for tat can be answer but I am asking with respect to protection of citizens.
4. 40 KM is range of artilerries/Howitzer deploying them near border. Whole Lahore will be in range. I know attack means full scale war but why Lahore is scaling towards India.
5. Upto 1971, there was a philosophy that Pak Army will protect east Pakistan from west Pakistan. But it never become successful. Is this concept dead or we are treating Sindh and Baluchistan in same line?

1) Well the soul behind the so called Sangh pariwar strategy that gave birth to extremist people like Modi is the belief that Sub continent was and is for Hindus and the Muslims and other minorities were converted from Hindus over centuries so its their right to convert them back to Hinduism ( Ghar Wapsi schemes etc) and to dream to merge the Pakistan and Bangladesh ,Sri lanka etc to make a larger Hindu land in South asia.
Due to Media its easy these days to brainwash masses simultaneously so there is no doubt that fake Hindu nationalism has been on the rise in Hindustan lately giving power to people like Modi and I dont see it scaling back in near future and any future war will be fueled by Hindu nationalism which is the favorite toy of RSS and Sanghis to fool general Hindus in hindustan.

2) Thats a childish question Pakistan is utilizing so much of its resources into building smarter and battle field nukes that it makes it clear to all defence analysts Pakistan army will be using them at their ease initially at advancing Indian columns right on borders and if India uses that opportunity to attack mainland Pak with nukes then Pakistan will attack Indian military installation across Hindustan .

All those people who tries to comfort themselves by saying Nukes wont be used as it will exterminate life completely needs to understand Pakistan's position on Kashmir . We made a blunder by allowing India to dry Ravi, Sutlej and Bias rivers after indus water treaty as we shouldnt have allowed them to alter natural course of any river or divert water now if we relax these fanatic Hindus we will loose Chenab and Jhelum making our coming generations dying of thirst so it should be crystal clear to all the sane people in Hindustan that we would love to die and kill in a Nuke shower but it will be better than dying of thirst plus we will kill also millions of Indians and owing to her larger areas and dense population India will suffer more losses.

3) As per my knowledge some modifications are being made to some super sonic missiles bought from China and even if its not successful its fine as India has no answer to our Babar and R'aad cruise missiles as they fly just a few meters above earth and have very high accuracy.

4) Well I agree with you on this one but still if an all out war breaks out I dont think IA will contend on just shelling across border they will try to cross border and in that case kilometers doesnt matter much plus Pakistan also put her best defence in Lahore if we go by history of 65. Btw Amritsar isnt much far from border either same is the case with Karachi, Mombay , Chennai etc as they are on direct target of invisible sub marines and intruding ships.

5) Its Bullshit we have got equally best defence across entire border with India . In balochistan we dont face any invading threat from Iran or Afghanistan as they cant face our military might all we have to do is to eliminate Indian proxies and terrorists like Yadav

 

[JattPanjabi]

2) Thats a childish question Pakistan is utilizing so much of its resources into building smarter and battle field nukes that it makes it clear to all defence analysts Pakistan army will be using them at their ease initially at advancing Indian columns right on borders and if India uses that opportunity to attack mainland Pak with nukes then Pakistan will attack Indian military installation across Hindustan .

I believe tactical nukes are useless, their power can be matched with conventional bombs and they just deplete uranium to be used for bigger nukes.

 

[Albatross]

I believe tactical nukes are useless, their power can be matched with conventional bombs and they just deplete uranium to be used for bigger nukes.

Tactical nukes covers a smaller area and can successfully annihilate an advancing division with out effecting much of the surrounding areas leaving little foot prints, plus Pakistan tactical nukes are plutonium based.

Besides Pakistan US and Russia only deploy tactical nukes as these weapons require a high level of expertise in design and processing stage .

 

[Sine Nomine]

I think some countries have ABM systems in various degrees of readiness. USA, Russia, Israel, India, China and some European countries.

Specifically wrt India, Delhi and Mumbai were supposed to be covered by now, according to info in public domain, with other metros and mega cities to follow shortly, and then tier 2 cities. The ABM systems are the most secretive, even more than the nuclear programs, so very few details are available in public domain.

But basic info about ABM program of India, is in public domain for quite some time:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Ballistic_Missile_Defence_Programme

There is not even single working system on planet which can provide even 50% sure shot result.All systems are theoretically capable of this and that but actually not even single system can defeat That RV approaching it's target in mach 10+ speed.

 

[ManavKalia]

There is not even single working system on planet which can provide even 50% sure shot result.All systems are theoretically capable of this and that but actually not even single system can defeat That RV approaching it's target in mach 10+ speed.

I understand the physics and math behind it. You might be right. But even a 25% sure shot result is enough looking at the end game.

Firstly you are not going to launch just one defensive missile for a single target missile. Let's say for arguments sake, you launch 3, so the probability that at least one hits the target will be quite high. Or you could launch 30, to get the required probability as close to 100% as possible. Whatever it takes. I'm not getting into detailed math, but simple permutations and combinations (the kind you learn in high school) can be used to arrive at the required number of defensive missiles to be launched at a single target.

Now I realise that it is mathematically impossible to achieve a 100% probability level. But then an offensive missile with a nuclear payload, will also never have 100% probability of hitting the right target area and detonating successfully.

Now consider the game theory behind this. Supposing both countries do not have any ABM system. And for simplification let's assume the first strike and the second strike capabilities are also same with both countries. So we reach the mutually assured destruction end result, that was prevalent throughout the cold war era. India won't launch, Pakistan won't launch, because of the zero sum endgame of the MAD doctrine.

Now if India has a successful ABM, how successful is debatable, and you could probably argue till the cows come home, but it won't lead anywhere, but again for arguments sake let's assume 50% success rate of the ABM, it'll probably be higher, but 50% is enough to illustrate my point.

Now let's say Pakistan launches at top 10 targets in India. India does the same. Then by law of averages, ABM system will save 5 targets, and lose 5 targets. Whereas Pakistan will lose all 10 targets. Which spins the MAD doctrine on it's head. Thereby changing all the nuclear engagement scenarios. Which is the primary purpose of ABM in the first place. To gain added leverage in a nuclear engagement scenario.

That's why countries are investing a lot of money, time and effort into developing ABM systems. I've simplified all calculation parameters and variables involved for illustration purposes. But I do have extensive experience in game theory, data modeling etc to know what I'm talking about.

Hope it clarifies..

 

[JattPanjabi]

I understand the physics and math behind it. You might be right. But even a 25% sure shot result is enough looking at the end game.

Firstly you are not going to launch just one defensive missile for a single target missile. Let's say for arguments sake, you launch 3, so the probability that at least one hits the target will be quite high. Or you could launch 30, to get the required probability as close to 100% as possible. Whatever it takes. I'm not getting into detailed math, but simple permutations and combinations (the kind you learn in high school) can be used to arrive at the required number of defensive missiles to be launched at a single target.

Now I realise that it is mathematically impossible to achieve a 100% probability level. But then an offensive missile with a nuclear payload, will also never have 100% probability of hitting the right target area and detonating successfully.

Now consider the game theory behind this. Supposing both countries do not have any ABM system. And for simplification let's assume the first strike and the second strike capabilities are also same with both countries. So we reach the mutually assured destruction end result, that was prevalent throughout the cold war era. India won't launch, Pakistan won't launch, because of the zero sum endgame of the MAD doctrine.

Now if India has a successful ABM, how successful is debatable, and you could probably argue till the cows come home, but it won't lead anywhere, but again for arguments sake let's assume 50% success rate of the ABM, it'll probably be higher, but 50% is enough to illustrate my point.

Now let's say Pakistan launches at top 10 targets in India. India does the same. Then by law of averages, ABM system will save 5 targets, and lose 5 targets. Whereas Pakistan will lose all 10 targets. Which spins the MAD doctrine on it's head. Thereby changing all the nuclear engagement scenarios. Which is the primary purpose of ABM in the first place. To gain added leverage in a nuclear engagement scenario.

That's why countries are investing a lot of money, time and effort into developing ABM systems. I've simplified all calculation parameters and variables involved for illustration purposes. But I do have extensive experience in game theory, data modeling etc to know what I'm talking about.

Hope it clarifies..

This is a pretty well written post - thank you. Doesn't the above mean that in the case that India gets a missile defense system, Pakistan is forced to get it as well even though the huge difference in economies means that one country can afford it and the other can't?

 

[ManavKalia]

This is a pretty well written post - thank you. Doesn't the above mean that in the case that India gets a missile defense system, Pakistan is forced to get it as well even though the huge difference in economies means that one country can afford it and the other can't?

India already has a missile defence system, and is working on improving the existing one as well as procuring new ones, and the extended deployment of the same. In this field we are officially and unofficially helped by Israel, Russia and USA.

We already have a lead in this, it takes a lot of interconnected systems to make a successful ABM. ISRO and DRDO are already involved in the indigenous capability. Plus we have USA, Russia and Israel to help us, whose ABM systems are the most advanced on earth. So Pakistan whenever it decides to join the ABM race will always be playing catch up to India. Plus it'll have some inherent disadvantages in this field.

Firstly, it requires a lot of money, for purchases, infrastructure and research and development, in which India will always have a massive edge because of the much larger economy.

Secondly, while India can rely on USA, Russia and Israel for assistance, these countries will not assist Pakistan for ABM systems. So Pakistan will have to rely on China for ABM systems, and Chinese ABM program has a long way to go catch up with USA, Russia and Israel.

ABM systems are the new holy grail of advanced warfare, so it is the most secretive and well protected asset of countries, and will impact the regional supremacy of Asia..

 

[Khan_patriot]

India already has a missile defence system, and is working on improving the existing one as well as procuring new ones, and the extended deployment of the same. In this field we are officially and unofficially helped by Israel, Russia and USA.

We already have a lead in this, it takes a lot of interconnected systems to make a successful ABM. ISRO and DRDO are already involved in the indigenous capability. Plus we have USA, Russia and Israel to help us, whose ABM systems are the most advanced on earth. So Pakistan whenever it decides to join the ABM race will always be playing catch up to India. Plus it'll have some inherent disadvantages in this field.

Firstly, it requires a lot of money, for purchases, infrastructure and research and development, in which India will always have a massive edge because of the much larger economy.

Secondly, while India can rely on USA, Russia and Israel for assistance, these countries will not assist Pakistan for ABM systems. So Pakistan will have to rely on China for ABM systems, and Chinese ABM program has a long way to go catch up with USA, Russia and Israel.

ABM systems are the new holy grail of advanced warfare, so it is the most secretive and well protected asset of countries, and will impact the regional supremacy of Asia..

You make it look like an ABM is the holy grail of national defence, the system is still unproven in a war against real cruise or ballistic missiles (homemade Palestinian ones don't count) and missile tech is advancing very rapidly and I believe that pakistan will improve is missile tech instead of pursuing an ABM system which is a more economical option.

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

There is not even single working system on planet which can provide even 50% sure shot result.All systems are theoretically capable of this and that but actually not even single system can defeat That RV approaching it's target in mach 10+ speed.

The only "missiles" ANY ABM system in the world has had sured success against is in Israel against 1940s Soviet era Hamas Katyshua rockets and their garden shed made firework style rockets. Even the most advanced ABM system in the world in America has had sure success in CONTROLLED conditions against basic and lower tech missiles. Advanced Pakistani missile systems in large salvos would completely nullify and overwhelm any indian ABM system.

 

[Sine Nomine]

I understand the physics and math behind it. You might be right. But even a 25% sure shot result is enough looking at the end game.

Firstly you are not going to launch just one defensive missile for a single target missile. Let's say for arguments sake, you launch 3, so the probability that at least one hits the target will be quite high. Or you could launch 30, to get the required probability as close to 100% as possible. Whatever it takes. I'm not getting into detailed math, but simple permutations and combinations (the kind you learn in high school) can be used to arrive at the required number of defensive missiles to be launched at a single target.

Now I realise that it is mathematically impossible to achieve a 100% probability level. But then an offensive missile with a nuclear payload, will also never have 100% probability of hitting the right target area and detonating successfully.

Now consider the game theory behind this. Supposing both countries do not have any ABM system. And for simplification let's assume the first strike and the second strike capabilities are also same with both countries. So we reach the mutually assured destruction end result, that was prevalent throughout the cold war era. India won't launch, Pakistan won't launch, because of the zero sum endgame of the MAD doctrine.

Now if India has a successful ABM, how successful is debatable, and you could probably argue till the cows come home, but it won't lead anywhere, but again for arguments sake let's assume 50% success rate of the ABM, it'll probably be higher, but 50% is enough to illustrate my point.

Now let's say Pakistan launches at top 10 targets in India. India does the same. Then by law of averages, ABM system will save 5 targets, and lose 5 targets. Whereas Pakistan will lose all 10 targets. Which spins the MAD doctrine on it's head. Thereby changing all the nuclear engagement scenarios. Which is the primary purpose of ABM in the first place. To gain added leverage in a nuclear engagement scenario.

That's why countries are investing a lot of money, time and effort into developing ABM systems. I've simplified all calculation parameters and variables involved for illustration purposes. But I do have extensive experience in game theory, data modeling etc to know what I'm talking about.

Hope it clarifies..

These missiles are fired by calculating speed of RV and Trajectory,An ABM systems fails if missile is MIRVed or even one RV carries counter measures.It is simply economical to produce and deploy more maneuverable and countermeasure equipped RV's then ABM system.When India deployed s 300 we just deployed Babur man missile to outflank it.Case is simply if even 10 missiles are launched on one target and ABM gets 50% hit then still the one nuke hit will destroy all of System,I hope you know about EMP due to nuke detonation.

 

[BABA AGHORI]

Pakistan Army must target south of India, Gujrat and Maharashtra where army density is minimum and they are contributing towards Indian economy.


Where I can find the boo button for you

Gujarat and Maharashtra are not in south of India they are just south from where you are seeing them

 

[Soumitra]

With Sangh Parivar govt you will have to be extra careful in using Tactical Nuclear Weapons. A Congress govt might not react to TNW but BJP will do a massive second strike even if TNW is used on Pakistani Soil against Indian army

 

[Indo-Pak]

These missiles are fired by calculating speed of RV and Trajectory,An ABM systems fails if missile is MIRVed or even one RV carries counter measures.It is simply economical to produce and deploy more maneuverable and countermeasure equipped RV's then ABM system.When India deployed s 300 we just deployed Babur man missile to outflank it.Case is simply if even 10 missiles are launched on one target and ABM gets 50% hit then still the one nuke hit will destroy all of System,I hope you know about EMP due to nuke detonation.

How Many missile Pakistan have with MIRV capabilities?

So U mean to say that they (interceptors) can't do course-correction in midway? Did you ever wonder why Scuds were intercepted almost a decade ago??

Yes Missile tech is improved, so does ABMs. See how RV can be hit even if there are decoy..

 

[BABA AGHORI]

The only "missiles" ANY ABM system in the world has had sured success against is in Israel against 1940s Soviet era Hamas Katyshua rockets and their garden shed made firework style rockets. Even the most advanced ABM system in the world in America has had sure success in CONTROLLED conditions against basic and lower tech missiles. Advanced Pakistani missile systems in large salvos would completely nullify and overwhelm any indian ABM system.

Perfect: Large salvos ... just check how many missiles Pak would need to overpower ABM......
Remember India would just need one missile to destroy one target with its 1940 era tech..

 

[Verve]

It will indeed be a bloody war. There will be tactical nukes (on Pak soil only) and full blown gorilla warfare waiting for the Indian armies entering Pakistan. Punjab and Sindh will be graveyards for the Indian Army.

Conventional nukes will not be used. Hallucinating Hindus will be not press those buttons because they will fear both Chinese and Pakistani nukes showering them together.

Hindu will loose this war, despite larger numbers, primarily because he is scared of death.