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This hasn't got anything to do with being a huge country and vastly varying trajectories here , North Korea isn't close - has a lower land area and very few launch positions known to the Yanks sitting next to Pyongyang in Seoul , even then the U.S. experts are warning about the threats originating from it and pointing out the vulnerabilities in their shields . I read what you posted without taking the limitations into account just fine , suffice to say that Indians are more confident and have some false sense of security in their yet-to-be-operational ABM than the other more advanced nations working on it for a long time and claiming to overcome problems which the analysts say - are yet to be conquered by the ballistic defense technology . If the longer distance and a relatively large time window compensates for the advanced missiles equipped with robust countermeasures then the shorter distances and the small time window in our case will compensate for the relatively modest missile technology with few countermeasures , fair to say that ? Apply the same logic here . I do not know what is hard to understand that simulated tests do not take into account , a lot many variables , which will not be predetermined/set by the Indian scientists in a war scenario , this has got more to do than just speed and size , what about the trajectory , launch time/place , its type , chaff's , decoys and the maneuverable vehicle etc ? There's a time constraint imposed by the shorter distances too then there's the cost of the interceptors and their effectiveness , you are claiming a very high value of successful intercept probability ( 99.8 % official Indian claim ) than what the world's best have managed (50 % - even that most of their own defense analysts call as exaggerated and being conducted under controlled conditions ) , which makes one think that the Indian tests for the ballistic defense are being conducted carefully with a lot of variables being controlled extensively - all got successful right ? .
I can understand the initial testing phase through which the BMD is going through now , but where was I wrong when I said that it would take still a decade or two to be deployed significantly ? If you aren't ready for counter measures , pray tell me what are you testing against ? By the time you get it operational , the adversary would have had it deployed . Here you are only talking about Pakistan which started work on MIRV in 2004 and keeps information under tight wraps , what about the other enemy which has it all deployed already ? How do you plan to counter that ? This stopping the missile before it reaches its highest point is well easier said than done , there's no practical example from what I am seeing here where a MIRVed missile is intercepted . I am not aware of India possessing any such infrared system in space , does it exist or that is a future plan which hasn't materialized until now ? Do you have such advanced detection systems deployed at the moment or the long range radars still being worked and polished ? Actually , he's not the only one claiming the fifty percent success rate , I have seen a couple of sources which all claim the same thing , maybe its after even the new " discriminating technology " since well the author clearly declares that no countermeasures were used by the offense .
Actually , that is a good example to think of it . I am not overestimating the capabilities on my side since North Korea doesn't have any counter measures properly deployed like Pakistan and not underestimating the enemy . Even then , the equation is not quite good . The costs are high for interceptors since I doubt that only a single one can be used and with MIRV in the mix , its going to be high than that of the offense . Well , every interceptor test sets variables , what do you mean by " you dont know that " ? The tests are always rigged since there are too many variables to consider and one can only anticipate so much @gambit if you will please explain the " setting the rules " for the test .
Conditions changed dramatically in 1970 with the introduction of Multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) warheads. Suddenly each launcher was throwing not one warhead, but several. These would spread out in space, ensuring that a single interceptor would be needed for each warhead. This simply added to the need to have several interceptors for each warhead in order to provide geographical coverage. Now it was clear that an ABM system would always be many times more expensive than the ICBMs they defended against. In summary, the MIRV made ABM economically ineffective, and practically non-workable.
Anti-ballistic missile - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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