What makes you think Pakistan is stuck with the same strategy, what Gen Beg said was in 1997 and this is 2011.
Has the PA outlined any new doctrine since 1997? If not, then you and I, and the public in general, will have to assume that the PA's doctrine today is more or less the same as it was in a decade ago. Doctrines are never set in stone, and are constantly changing to meet new challenges, but I doubt the PA's strategy has fundamentally changed. Pakistan is quite limited in what it can do.
PA can launch an offensive operation in the Indian territory where they feel that the defence is weak and they are confident of overwhelming the defence, but overall i doubt it Pakistan will launch an operation inside Indian territory. I make this statement based on looking at the current balance of power in South Asia right now. Also anything less than destruction of a huge chunk of Pakistani forces would be considered a defeat for India, thus IA would need to accomplish a victory that would be politically acceptable. Pakistan's doctrine is changing as the PA is striving to become more mobile to deal with the Cold Start Doctrine.
Let me a tell you a basic rule of warfare. If your enemy is fast and mobile, you
don't sit and wait for him to attack you. You need to move yourself, and try to outmatch your enemy in terms of operational maneuverability. For a good historical example, look at the Wehrmacht's blitzkrieg during Barbarossa and how the Soviets adapted their Deep Battle doctrine to beat the Wehrmacht's mobility. Granted, Pakistan and India are a different case than Nazi Germany and the USSR, but the fundamental rules of warfare remain the same.
Looking at the current manoeuvres and exercises PA has been involved in, its quite clear that PA has developed a strategy to counter the CS threat. PA is adding more mechanized assets to its inventory to beat the Indian IBG's to the border if war breaks out, mechanized assets would be absolutely essential to taming the Indian IBG's.
Fast mobilization has always been central to Pakistan's defence strategy, even before Cold Start. The success of Riposte was/is dependent on Pakistan readying their forces for limited offensives before India's strike corps were ready.
The recent synergy achieved between PA and PAF has been absolutely wonderful, they are conducting exercises togather and are involved in live operations in FATA. While on the Indian side there is no evidence of IA and IAF talking to each other as both sides want the glory.
First of all, there are inter-service rivalries in every armed force, including Pakistan's.
Secondly, the IA and IAF and demonstrated their coordination in several exercises, including Operation Sanghe Sakhti. I think the size of forces that we saw in Sanghe Sakhti would be roughly equivalent to one IBG.
Gen Sunderjee's doctrine is outdated due to both nations possessing nuclear weapons, if India succeeds in breaking through and reaching the N5 highway, you have already crossed the nuclear threshold which is unacceptable to India. Thus, India has come up with this new doctrine to punish Pakistan without crossing the nuclear threshold.
Cold Start has the built-in flexibility to revert to the Sunderjee Doctrine if the situation demands. If Pakistan, for whatever reason, uses nuclear/unconventional weapons, India will abandon its limited CS objectives and seek to achieve total victory (i.e. the destruction of Pakistan as a state).
The only problem is the doctrine is severely flawed because the Indian armour can never beat our light mechanized divisions to the border because they are faster.
India is aiming for a mobilization time of 48-72 hours, which is as fast as the PA can hope to get. India has a huge fleet of transport aircraft that can airdrop large formations behind enemy lines; this was one of the capabilities that was tested in the many wargames after 2004. Pakistan only has a handful of transport a/c.
To effectively punish Pakistan India's IBG's would have to reach deep inside Pakistan and engage and destroy a huge chunk of Pakistan's Armour. Good objective but odds are not in favour of India due to the conditions of the subcontinent(canals, soil)
Cold Start will most likely take place in the Rajasthan-Sindh sectors, where conditions favor mechanized operations. I don't expect Indian forces to make much headway in the Punjab sectors, where canals, muddy soil, and ditch-cum-bunds make mechanized operations more difficult. Also, air interdiction will play a huge role in the overall Indian strategy.
how are the Indians going to react when attrition kicks in as they start taking punishment from infantry whom are sniping Indian Armour with their ATGM's. By the time Indians advance deep enough, PA will know exactly where you are and they decide to engage you with their freshly reinforced Armour against your IBG's whom are exhausted.
Obviously, the whole point of Cold Start is to end the war as quickly as possible, before attrition begins. The objective is to destroy a large enough portion of Pakistan's warfighting capability to make a counteroffensive against Indian forces impractical. The objective is NOT to penetrate deep inside Pakistan. I don't expect IA penetration of Pakistan to exceed 50-80 km on any front. Advancing any deeper with just division-sized units would be suicidal.
To take your artillery forward you would need to advance first deep enough and set it up, which takes time compared to PA's artillery which is already set up whether towed or SP artillery which can quickly advance and start hitting your IBG's.
Yes, this is the only area where the IA currently lacks. We don't have enough SP artillery to provide our IBGs with organic fire support, so the IA has to currently rely on other means, like CAS aircraft and towed artillery.
Dont forget that PA is also adding the A100 in huge numbers, thus your amassing IBG's on the border will take severe beating.
Don't put too much faith in those A-100s. Pakistan is just getting into the MBRL game, while India has already operated them for many years, and has Pinaka, Smerch, and Grad units in large numbers. In the event of hostilities, your A-100s would be bomarded by counter-battery fire from IA MBRLs. It won't even be a contest, considering the numerical disparity between Indian and Pak MBRLSs.
If you look at the conflict in more depth, Indian victory seems quite far fetched as a complete Indian victory would likely cross the nuclear threshold which India desperately wants to avoid.
Nuclear weapons are tools of diplomacy and politics, not tools of war. Pakistan won't dare use nuclear weapons on Indian forces, considering the limited objectives of Cold Start. All that is left is for the GoI to get the political will to call Pakistan's nuclear bluff. The real challenge is the lack of political will, not the lack of military capabilities.
As the Indian move towards CS manoeuvres, PA would likely invite you in and try to destroy your Armour in our territory which is going to be a victory for Pakistan.
You don't always have to accept invitations, do you?