Need for a proper land planning

[Nilgiri]

if productivity increases spending is in itself an indication of growth.

(So, need to know BD's position regarding this)

Given BD does not sit on vast stockpiles of (persistent value) liquidity, almost all its (real) growth right now would/should be coming from productivity increase (at very little inflation). The fact that there is this much inflation this early on is very concerning....it means BD govt/elite have created supply side interventions/bottlenecks too early (in some very bad spots, for political dependency reasons probably)....instead of letting market forces operate freely (which is the most efficient way in the earliest stage of economic growth by far and in my opinion always the most efficient at any stage to differing degree)

or worry about whether they’ll still have work next month.

(So, need to know BD's position regarding this)

Honestly its too early to tell for the region at large. Unemployment is those willing/wanting to work that don't have any. It will technically be quite low in the region (given vast size of informal sector, although the productivity isnt that much and/or is largely unrecorded). The more critical issue is underemployment (i.e low productive work, even though its work)....which is not easy to make a number for (rather you just see it by per capita output, labour ratios and worker productivity etc provided you have good way of adequately measuring/estimating those)

From what I have seen in the world, you need to get to around 10,000+ USD per capita PPP for the statistical trends to clarify so that unemployment number starts to have more relevance compared to underemployment (which largely recedes after that given the base capacities, supply side inertia and liquidity pools generated). Further you away from that, the less relevant unemployment figure really is.

All the rest of the "need to know this" needs BD to improve its standards a lot to say SDDS or near level...i.e much more high frequency credible data released monthly etc. This is why India for example has many global banks/agencies like Fitch, S&P, DBS, Chase, Nomura etc release their predictions regarding GDP, inflation, jobs etc (and even then there is a long way to go to get reliable derived data like income and gini etc)....but Bangladesh only has its own internal govt agency and maybe IMF/WB doing so a cpl times a year. Bangladesh has to focus on reforming and improving its bureaucracy a huge amount first before we can answer many of these.

• Measures of well-being – surveys which measure overall living standards. e.g. ONS well-being index. (need to know BD's position regarding this)

• Human development index (HDI) – It is a composite index which includes real GDP per capita and also factors such as education, healthcare and environmental factors.

If you assume BD to be as true/credible as its peers in developing world, HDI is a good one (and if you don't, you just have to take that into account). MPI (multi poverty index) is another decent one. Food security index is pretty good too. The more composite they are, the better generally (as they don't rely on just 1 or 2 input streams...i.e the bias is hedged/reduced overall).

Bangladesh is doing ok overall, but can do much better on those and definitely needs to improve a lot on its internal survey credibility first and foremost (otherwise there will be lingering strong question on level of truth/fiction on various numbers).

 

[Skies]

Given BD does not sit on vast stockpiles of (persistent value) liquidity, almost all its (real) growth right now would/should be coming from productivity increase (at very little inflation). The fact that there is this much inflation this early on is very concerning....it means BD govt/elite have created supply side interventions/bottlenecks too early (in some very bad spots, for political dependency reasons probably)....instead of letting market forces operate freely (which is the most efficient way in the earliest stage of economic growth by far and in my opinion always the most efficient at any stage to differing degree)

I would like to know from you that how BD govt/elite have caused supply side interventions/bottlenecks exactly or with example, and how to identify that it is not natural that lets the market forces operate freely.

 

[Nilgiri]

I would like to know from you that how BD govt/elite have caused supply side interventions/bottlenecks exactly or with example, and how to identify that it is not natural that lets the market forces operate freely.

For industry (non food) I know its the excise duty structure (both on paper and off paper) generally...that is severe bottleneck preventing basic assembly in SME organically where the labour/demand is (the fact they need EPZ and SEZ etc to even try to get something going optically is proof of this). All kind of excuses are given for this but in the end I feel there is just political prestige at play, since having just RMG is easier to manage and extort (and formulate/manage one kind of trade union etc) from.

For food inflation (given food is 50% of bangladesh household income so will be high weight in CPI I think), you will have to tell me more on it....are there govt policies like minimum support prices, subsidies, regular loan waivers, export prevention and import restrictions?...and if so at what scale etc. Those would all be food related supply side intervention....and will cause inflation somewhere in the chain (doesn't have to be right away, can often be 5+ year time lag sometimes depending on dependency cycle and later external perturbation etc)....because inherently they actively interfere in the flow of the demand/supply.

Here is an interesting read on some of the issues:

https://www.thehindubusinessline.co...causes-of-food-inflation/article20819909.ece1

@Skies

 

[Skies]

For industry (non food) I know its the excise duty structure (both on paper and off paper) generally...that is severe bottleneck preventing basic assembly in SME organically where the labour/demand is

Yes, getting bank loan for SME is not easy now, at least not at low interest bank rate. It is said that banking sector is damaged by govt. which has impact on inflation (not natural). Also there are many duties and increase in tax which most probably are not used rightly but increasing daily expense or inflation.

For food inflation (given food is 50% of bangladesh household income so will be high weight in CPI I think), you will have to tell me more on it....are there govt policies like minimum support prices, subsidies, regular loan waivers, export prevention and import restrictions?...and if so at what scale etc.

For middle class, the food cost would be 20% in average, for poor people (like worker) it could be 50% as you assumed.

There are some support prices or subsidies on rice and daal for poor people but at very lower scale and for specific people of BAL supporters.

 

[Nilgiri]

For middle class, the food cost would be 20% in average, for poor people (like worker) it could be 50% as you assumed.

I'm just going by what BBS says. In HIES 2010 they said it was around 55% on average and for HIES 2016 around 45% I believe. Food security index puts around the same vicinity.

There are some support prices or subsidies on rice and daal for poor people but at very lower scale and for specific people of BAL supporters.

Well there is something going on, because BD is increasing its food production supply but still getting these kind of swings on the food inflation (its bad in India too btw, but largely because of the govt interventions):

https://tradingeconomics.com/bangladesh/food-inflation

If demand is outpacing the supply increase, BD needs to thoroughly investigate the supply side factors and follow as close to 0 intervention as possible.

There is for example a ban on exports of agricultural produce and the strategy is to then introduce tarriffs (on imports) with idea of price control policy etc for inflation (and to optically try to look like you are helping farmer) and keep employment levels in farming stable etc by forcing as much demand/supply to be met internally.

But if you look at the net results in transparent way, actually you hurt the farmer and actually create more inflation. A farmer should be allowed to access all markets both inside and outside BD with as few middlemen (Esp govt) as possible....just like consumers in BD should be allowed to buy the food they demand from whoever gives the best price on it....i.e agriculture should be treated like any other sector (and not fall prey to labour argument given the labour productivity is so low anyway if you keep it oversaturated with workers this way by artificial interventions).

Bangladesh (and developing countries) should not subsidise/tax the supply chains in agriculture like this to this extent that they do (i.e only focus when there is dumping or non-reciprocity of agri good market access)....because overall it actually hurts/slows the development (whereas optically it might seem like good thing to do when explained by politician and their lackeys).

 

[Mage]

GDP is like a speedometer: it tells you whether your economy is going faster or slower. As in cars, a speedometer is useful but doesn’t tell you everything you want to know. For example, it won’t tell you whether you are overheating, or about to run out of fuel. Above all, the speedometer doesn’t tell you whether or not you’re going in the right direction.

Like money can't buy happiness.....still if I were to cry, I'd rather cry in a palace.

Economic growth – real GDP growth.

Doing well.

Inflation – e.g. target CPI inflation of 2% (need to know BD's position regarding this)

Came down in the last few years....2% for a country like BD is a pipe dream.....current inflatin rate is somewhat manageable.

https://tradingeconomics.com/bangladesh/inflation-cpi

Unemployment – target of full employment (need to know BD's position regarding this)

Unsatisfactory....

Government borrowing/national debt

Rather low.

Real disposable incomes

Take a look

https://tradingeconomics.com/bangladesh/disposable-personal-income

Income inequality (Gini coefficient) (need to know BD's position regarding this)

I don't think this is a good measure for a developing country...
But still take a look
https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/SI.POV.GINI/rankings

Labour productivity

BD does sh!t in this regard..

Investment levels

Terrible.

Measures of well-being – surveys which measure overall living standards. e.g. ONS well-being index. (need to know BD's position regarding this)

Satisfaction with life index:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satisfaction_with_Life_Index
BD ranks 104th with a score of 190.
India 125th with a score of 180.
Pakistan is 166th with a score of 143.33

Get there and download sustainable society index excel sheet
http://www.ssfindex.com/results/ranking-all-countries/

In terms of human well being Bangladesh is at 81st place improving from 93rd place in 2006.
In terms of environmental well being Bangladesh is at 62nd place improving from 63rd place in 2006.
In terms of economic well being Bangladesh is at 73rd place improving from 92nd place in 2006.

Coming to India:
In terms of human well being India is at 87th place improving from 94th place in 2006.
In terms of environmental well being India is at 72nd place falling from 52rd place in 2006.
In terms of economic well being India is at 74st place improving from 115rd place in 2006.

Pakistan:
In terms of human well being Pakistan is at 105th place improving from 106th place in 2006.
In terms of Environmental well being Pakistan is at 50h place improving from 67th place in 2006.
In terms of Economic well being Pakistan is at 87th place falling from 100th place in 2006.

Human development index (HDI) – It is a composite index which includes real GDP per capita and also factors such as education, healthcare and environmental factors.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_..._Development_Index#Complete_list_of_countries
BD is in medium category there along with India and Pakistan....Bd's score is below India's but above Pakistan's...Pakistan barely made it in the medium category....BD has been in this category for sometime.

 

[Nilgiri]

Satisfaction with life

That is not a standard of living....firstly its not equivalent between one person to another...forget countries.

 

[Mage]

That is not a standard of living....firstly its not equivalent between one person to another...forget countries.

Satisfaction is more about the feelz....
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/11/061113093726.htm

 

[EasyNow]

@bluesky and @Skies , ironically the 2 of you are more like black clouds.

You are showing pictures of a slum in Dhaka as an example of poor development. I say the fact this slum remains on some of the most expensive land in Bd is credit to our society. Many vultures are eying that land but none could have it. Here is an example of negotiated change and u should welcome it.

And do you forget that we are a 3rd world country with ultra high population density? there are 10s of millions of people that need rehousing, it will take decades so please adjust your expectations.

Land planning is crucial but you are highlighting pre existing problems - majority of Dhaka city was built up by 2000. Those people left zero gaps between buildings and no space for air on their plots. Should the govt smash their buildings? It is not easy and change has to come from people too.

I am disappointed that planning rules are being flouted in new cities like Purbachal, but you didn't mention those. Strict action should be taken against over-development and ugliness.


Ps. If u can't see real economic improvement you need to open ur eyes: in sylhet town we have supply water in thousands of homes which we never had before. We have electricity in the remotest villages and loadshedding is hugely reduced. There are dozens of local bridges and newly tarmacked roads, making almost every area accessible by car.

We have several hospitals in town when we had 1 or 2. We have hundreds of schools and colleges - and people seem to afford paying for it. There are less beggars than even 5 years ago, there is no availability of houseworkers because they get better paid work elsewhere.

Bd has stipends for the elderly and for women. Life expectancy is higher than India or Pak, child mortality rates are the lowest and have halved in the last decade. Minimum wages doubled in 2010, and doubled again in 2013, today we protest for tk16000. And this is against a growing population and a worldwide economic downturn.

And you say there is no real improvement?

 

[Centaur]

Minimum wages doubled in 2010, and doubled again in 2013, today we protest for tk16000

The real success of BAL is reduction of extreme poverty by creating many job opportunities in very lower level.
Yes also beggars are much decreased no disagreement.
But unfortunately, this minimum wage level is too much deceiving if you recognize salesmen of various shops in smaller towns as human being. They are still paid 5/6 thousands of taka for cloth stores, and less in other stores.

Also in private hospitals,private schools in small towns, bla bla bla.... are very low paid.

However house maid income ( who are considered extremely poor aka odd jobs) or other odd jobs income increase significantly so they are in high demand.
Also pvt companies job ( equivalent to 3rd class) are extremely low paid and become worse.

They got salary less than a 4th class govt employee, and few do govt job in BD ( you can take a survey by yourself if you don't belong to upper class who always see world with pink glass.)
So I have no idea how can you declare 16000 demanded by labours of garments are minimum wage?

Those 3rd grade ( nominal because pay grade is much lower comparing govt jobs ) job salaries should increase too, as govt job salary is almost doubled comparing 2009 pay scale.And market also should be stable, otherwise all will be useless.
Also Multi national corporate job salaries became extremely high as a result of doubled pay of govt job, but they really represent very small proportion of a country.
So in reality, lower middle class became more poor, middle class is struggling, only higher middle class to upper class are enjoying much better life.

PS: giving food to hungry ( by creating jobs) folks is indeed a noble move, still that necessarily doesn't make this govt messiah of Bangladesh,as some of BAL supporters are trying to show them desperately. The real problem of expats are ( specially USA, UK, or other developed countries expats) they heavily rely on data, never have opportunity to meet with those poor peoples face to face in their real life .
Also hasina believe that Bengalis are some creatures, who are living in Bangladesh because of her and her father's mercy.
She yet to learn how to talk as a PM.

 

[Nilgiri]

Life expectancy is higher than India or Pak, child mortality rates are the lowest and have halved in the last decade.

According to the same decrepit corrupt govt....that have no "proper land planning" of this topic because of same said corruption.

Improve your standards and corruption levels FIRST to become more believable when comparing to other countries.

You rejected the ESCAP QC assessment for gods sake, probably to get away with the vastly smaller sample sizes you have used for the last 12 years in health/mortality surveys (compared to before).

Part of the reason why even Myanmar under a military junta has leapfrogged you in corruption perception index in span of just a few years.

But naaaaah just keep quoting your pathetic propaganda and corruption ridden govt organs selectively (life expectancy and other such BS claims from a country sending 1 million medical refugees yearly for things like x-rays)....and ignore the nasty things even they (BBS) point out sometimes....like lower calorie intake in BD now compared to 2010 and declining real household incomes.

 

[Neptune_]

@bluesky and @Skies , ironically the 2 of you are more like black clouds.

You are showing pictures of a slum in Dhaka as an example of poor development. I say the fact this slum remains on some of the most expensive land in Bd is credit to our society. Many vultures are eying that land but none could have it. Here is an example of negotiated change and u should welcome it.

And do you forget that we are a 3rd world country with ultra high population density? there are 10s of millions of people that need rehousing, it will take decades so please adjust your expectations.

Land planning is crucial but you are highlighting pre existing problems - majority of Dhaka city was built up by 2000. Those people left zero gaps between buildings and no space for air on their plots. Should the govt smash their buildings? It is not easy and change has to come from people too.

I am disappointed that planning rules are being flouted in new cities like Purbachal, but you didn't mention those. Strict action should be taken against over-development and ugliness.


Ps. If u can't see real economic improvement you need to open ur eyes: in sylhet town we have supply water in thousands of homes which we never had before. We have electricity in the remotest villages and loadshedding is hugely reduced. There are dozens of local bridges and newly tarmacked roads, making almost every area accessible by car.

We have several hospitals in town when we had 1 or 2. We have hundreds of schools and colleges - and people seem to afford paying for it. There are less beggars than even 5 years ago, there is no availability of houseworkers because they get better paid work elsewhere.

Bd has stipends for the elderly and for women. Life expectancy is higher than India or Pak, child mortality rates are the lowest and have halved in the last decade. Minimum wages doubled in 2010, and doubled again in 2013, today we protest for tk16000. And this is against a growing population and a worldwide economic downturn.

And you say there is no real improvement?

Spot on. BAL has done a lot in last 8/10 years. Good thing is, this development is not just superficial, people r actually enjoying the benefit in real life. In villages many people who couldn't even afford to have two meals a day properly now have radio, TV or refrigerators in their houses. last year when i visited our village with my family after a long time, i couldn't find a single house which did not have a tv set.

Oh, and i can't even say how much i agree with ur point of lack of house workers. lol. It has become extremely difficult to find out a housemaid who's willing to come to Dhaka. Most of the village girls/women don't wanna come to Dhaka to do the job of housemaid because the amount of money she will get as a housemaid won't be much more than what she is currently earning in the village. This wasn't the case even 10/15 years back.

 

[24 Hours]

Spot on. BAL has done a lot in last 8/10 years. Good thing is, this development is not just superficial, people r actually enjoying the benefit in real life. In villages many people who couldn't even afford to have two meals a day properly now have radio, TV or refrigerators in their houses. last year when i visited our village with my family after a long time, i couldn't find a single house which did not have a tv set.

Oh, and i can't even say how much i agree with ur point of lack of house workers. lol. It has become extremely difficult to find out a housemaid who's willing to come to Dhaka. Most of the village girls/women don't wanna come to Dhaka to do the job of housemaid because the amount of money she will get as a housemaid won't be much more than what she is currently earning in the village. This wasn't the case even 10/15 years back.

Good to have you back, just be more careful about what you post this time.

 

[EasyNow]

The real success of BAL is reduction of extreme poverty by creating many job opportunities in very lower level.
Yes also beggars are much decreased no disagreement.
But unfortunately, this minimum wage level is too much deceiving if you recognize sellsman of various shops in smaller towns as human being. They are still paid 5/6 thousands of taka for cloth stores are less in other stores.
Also in private hospitals,private schools, small towns, bla bla bla.... are very low paid.

However house maid income ( who are considered extremely poor aka odd jobs) or other odd jobs income increase significantly so they are in high demand.
Also pvt companies job ( equivalent to 3rd class) are extremely low paid and become worse.

They got salary less than a 4th class govt employee, and few do govt job in BD ( you can take a survey by yourself if you don't belong to upper class who always see world with pink glass.
So I have no idea how can you declare 16000 demanded by labours of garments are minimum wage?

After it those 3rd grade ( nominal because pay grade is much lower comparing govt jobs ) job salaries should increase too, as govt job salary is almost double comparing 2009 pay scale. but also market should be stable . Otherwise all will be useless.
Also Multi national corporate job salaries became extremely high as a result if doubled pay if govt job but they really represent very small proportion of a country.
So in reality, lower middle class became more poor, middle class is struggling, only higher middle class to upper class are enjoying much better life.

PS: giving food to hungry ( by creating jobs) folks is indeed a noble move, still that necessarily doesn't make this govt messiah of Bangladesh,as some of BAL supporters are trying to show them desperately. The real problem of expats are ( specially USA, UK, or other developed countries expats) they heavily rely on data, never have opportunity to meet with those poor peoples face to face in their real life .
Also hasina believe that Bengalis are some creature who are living in Bangladesh because of her and her father's mercy.
She yet to learn how to talk as a PM.

I don't disagree with most of what you've said, there are millions of problems and i also agree that politics is too personal and it is annoying. But there is no doubt that we are miles ahead of where we were a decade ago.

As a non resident, it is very hard to get an objective assessment from a Bdeshi, everyone is biased to their party, so I do take your input on board as it seems fair.

According to the same decrepit corrupt govt....that have no "proper land planning" of this topic because of same said corruption.

Improve your standards and corruption levels FIRST to become more believable when comparing to other countries.

You rejected the ESCAP QC assessment for gods sake, probably to get away with the vastly smaller sample sizes you have used for the last 12 years in health/mortality surveys (compared to before).

Part of the reason why even Myanmar under a military junta has leapfrogged you in corruption perception index in span of just a few years.

But naaaaah just keep quoting your pathetic propaganda and corruption ridden govt organs selectively (life expectancy and other such BS claims from a country sending 1 million medical refugees yearly for things like x-rays)....and ignore the nasty things even they (BBS) point out sometimes....like lower calorie intake in BD now compared to 2010 and declining real household incomes.

You don't accept clear stats on child mortality but are trying to define Bd using the vaguest data like calorie intake.(!) There can be no definitive conclusions from such data, eg. a diet moving away from highly calorific rice is one reason for this.

The corruption index is also a very subjective one. We are free, unlike military dictatorships to criticise the govt and we do so generously, don't try to hold that against us

 

[Nilgiri]

You don't accept clear stats on child mortality but are trying to define Bd using the vaguest data like calorie intake.

I don't accept any of it actually. BD has to prove its credibility first is what I am saying. The conflicting data coming out slowly is illustrating what I have been saying all along. The more you dig, the shakier the foundations...the higher the world standard rejections.

Tell me how would you conceivably collect child mortality any different to calorie intake (from HIES). Actually start with the sample size BD is using for both right now. Tell me if you even know them....then we can proceed on to the sensitivity of both to propaganda bias manipulation filters.

There can be no definitive conclusions from such data, eg. a diet moving away from highly calorific rice is one reason for this.

There are clear definitive conclusions from such data (assuming it was indeed collected in non biased format)...it shows Bangladeshis already consuming low calories are consuming even fewer.

The diet "moving away" from rice is only a good thing if your total calorie intake (since its already so low) does not decline, otherwise the poorest segment of people suffer even more....especially if they are who are suffering from the food inflation the most.

Not to mention you completely avoided the decrease of real household income (from 2010 to 2016). Is that also a "no definite conclusion" thing (given BBS disingenuously in a rush to paint success ...didnt even apply a CPI deflator in their report)?

http://today.thefinancialexpress.co...conomic-growth-disappear-who-saves-1512481205

The corruption index is also a very subjective one. We are free, unlike military dictatorships to criticise the govt and we do so generously, don't try to hold that against us

Subjective according to? You are so behind in the level to the peers you want to desperately compare with, subjective component argument simply does not hold by the magnitude at play here. Not to mention that there is nothing subjective about BD getting stuck in the low score for so long....i.e the trends by your own larger population opinion (and not just yours personally) are that its the same as it always was.

We don't even have to approach the objective components of the argument.