Imran Khan and Qadri are not a party to the Charter of Democracy a pact signed by the two main parties PML N and PPP in 2006 which deemed that nothing should be done to provide an opportunity to the Army to derail democracy. Charter of Democracy ensured that Sharif did not intervene when Mr Zardari’s government was in trouble with the Army from time to time when in power from 2008 - 2013. The newer parties PTI and PAT have no such understanding and are thus willing to stake democracy at the altar of their own ambitions.
For now the Pakistan Army has clarified that it is not looking at a coup. However it is amply clear that the military is supporting the two dissidents and a new form of control of polity through back seat driving by GHQ from Rawalpindi may be taking form.
Proponents of the hypothesis of military control site the retired ISI chief controversial Lt Gen Ahmad Shuja Pasha being behind the movement. Pasha had tried to upstage the Zardari government stoking up the controversial Memogate but fell out in the bargain. A protégé of former Army Chief Pervez Ashraf Kiyani, Pasha’s hand is seen behind the present political movement. A report in the News International claims that on 02 August, Shuja Pasha held an in camera meeting for two hours and twenty minutes with PTI leader and party MNA from Lahore, Shafqat Mehmood. Pasha is said to be the creator of PTI in his tenure as DG ISI. These reports have not been confirmed.
The Army’s 111 Infantry Brigade is deployed in Islamabad for security. As the PTI and PAT workers closed in on the parliament, Director General (DG) Inter-Service Public Relations (ISPR) Major General Asim Bajwa tweeted on 20 April for respect of state symbols and dialogue in, “larger national and public interest”.
Many believe that the current situation may be the outcome of recent differences between Nawaz Sharif and the Pakistan Army. The Army was not comfortable with Mr Sharif’s visit to Delhi on 26 May for oath taking ceremony of Mr Narendra Modi and was believed to be a reluctant proponent of the same. Now that the foreign secretary talks on 25 August between India and Pakistan have fizzled out, the Pak military may have proved it s point to Mr Sharif. Knowing strong business interests of the Sharif family, the military also wants to contain trade initiatives such as MFN status to India, for this the Army has to ensure full control over the PMO in Islamabad.
Sharif has also been propagating a policy of non interference in Kabul; however recent security forays in Afghanistan by the Afghan Taliban reportedly supported by Pakistani agencies denote overall intent of Pak GHQ controlling the Southern and Eastern halves of that country through the rebels. The Afghans have played into this hand by flawed elections which have seen massive fraud, providing the Taliban an active role in destabilsiing the provinces possibly followed by political interjection. Marginalizing Sharif on this front was important.
The military’s change of approach came about when Sharif first nominated a Defence Minister Khawaja Asif, who was not acceptable to the Army and who has come out openly questioning the military from time to time.
The last straw is believed to be the decision to deny former Army Chief and President Pervez Musharraf an exit. Army Chief General Raheel Sharif and ISI Chief Lieutenant-General Zaheer-ul-Islam are reported to have flown to Islamabad in a helicopter when they heard that a decision to the contrary was taken by the PML N brass, yet could not persuade Sharif otherwise.
Sharif’s opening negotiations with the TTP and favouring the Geo News in a tiff with the ISI are said to be other reasons for military disillusionment with the PML N.
Whatever be the outcome of the present standoff, the military has driven home the point that it will not budge from India and Afghanistan policy and an exit for General Musharraf may be another demand.
As attempts are made for dialogue between the Sharif brothers and PTI/PAT, what the current movement will achieve may thus depend on what the objectives of the Army are, as of now these are as indicated to regain control of policy that has been usurped by Mr Sharif; related to engagement with India, management of Afghanistan post 2014 and dealing with Tehreek Taliban Pakistan and other groups.
While the traditional political parties have supported Sharif as the National Assembly has passed a resolution rejecting the demands of PTI and PAT on 21 August, by creating alternate political pressure points and subverting the Charter of Democracy, Pakistan military may have established new patterns of control over the polity. Thus the first democratic transformation of May 2013 may have been an illusion at best.
Pakistan: The Soft Coup to Constrain Nawaz Sharif - Pakistan - Security Trends South Asia - Security-Risks.com Caring for your Safety, Life & Security
