Rakhine people - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Rohingya people - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
According to wiki article there are around 3.3 million Rakhine Buddhists, 3.1 million in Burma and around 200,000 in Bangladesh. There are around 2 million Rohingya's, out of which 800,000 in Burma, 300,000 in Bangladesh and the rest about 1 million scattered around the world (may be someone with more knowledge can verify this, asad71 bhai?)
The biggest question I have is in an independent Arakan, there is 3.1 million Rakhines and around 2 million or more Rohingya's, but some estimated the real number as high as 4 million (again we need some reliable source for this), but it could be as low as 1 million, just based on Rohingya population in Bangladesh and Arakan, so without Rakhine's agreeing to and fighting for an independent Arakan, it will be a difficult to liberate Arakan, as they are the majority.
So the political part and grass roots opinion making has to precede first and see if we can find Rakhine leaders who will work with us to see whether Rakhines really want independence. Lets learn from the Kao boys of RAW, and see if we can engineer a secession based on some solid grass roots support for independence among Rakhine population. The military and insurgency part can wait for much later.
For more details on how India broke Pakistan, please read details here:
http://www.defence.pk/forums/milita...bureau-ib-r-aw-east-pakistan-1963-1971-a.html
If Rakhines do not agree, then last resort will be to create a temporary safe haven for Rohingya's in northern part of Arakan, along Bangladesh border, till Burma's govt. make a favorable decision about Rohingya citizenship.
In the meantime, we need to work on our airforce, buy 1-2 awacs, install some big radars in highest mount tops in CHT with good visibility in surrounding theater, try to upgrade fighters to get direct datalink with awacs and ground radars and increase number and quality of air superiority fighters. We should also consult with other sympathetic Muslim nations to see if any of them will bring their air force assets if needed, in a conflict situation. But I have detailed these steps in a post in page 1, where India and China will need to be given the opportunity to solve this diplomatically with Myanmar govt. first.
Also, we should start giving combat training to our 6-7 million Ansar VDP forces, so they can work under regular infantry soldiers to multiply the number of forces in a total war situation. Navy will have to be upgraded as well.
These preparations will take at least 3-4 years and hopefully in the meantime Hasina will be out and Khaleda Zia will be in, who hopefully will be more sympathetic and responsible about this Rohingya problem.
We can also start training the Rohingya's in Bangladesh as insurgents, but not give them any arms or ammunition yet for deployment. Insurgency option should be exercised much later after:
- Rakhine leadership have been contacted and their opinion on independence have been explored
- India and China have applied diplomatic pressure and failed
- Burmese Junta with or without help from Rakhine militia continues its policy of killing and ethnic cleansing of Rohingya
If Rohingya's are not killed outright and forced out to the sea, just for legal issues like citizenship, we will not have a just cause to intervene, but if they are killing them, then the question will arise to arm and deploy the insurgents as the first step to create a favorable ground situation and then a humanitarian military intervention can follow at a time of our choosing.
We should prepare, as we do not have an option to avoid this conflict, they have already forced a war on us, by creating a refugee problem for decades and still not solving it. If we can have sufficient preparation, it might change Burmese Junta to change the policy of killing and ethnic cleansing, hopefully without our intervention.