Here is an FT article based on a report filed by McKinsey a year ago which generally goes along with what I'm trying to say.
http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2013/05/29/myanmar-a-300bn-economy-by-2030/
Myanmar: a $300bn economy by 2030
May 29, 2013 9:27pm
by Gwen Robinson
352
While some of the world’s
biggest professional services firms have rushed into Myanmar to set up shop, the big management consultants have been conspicuously absent from the rush – at least, so it has seemed.
But, what do you know? McKinsey & Co, in typically discreet style, has trumped them all with a comprehensive report on the country’s prospects and policy suggestions, to be formally presented – gratis – to the government of President Thein Sein.
The 135-page document is the handiwork of a high-powered team from McKinsey and its research arm,
McKinsey Global Institute, which spent four solid months on field research, compiling data and brainstorming with the government and private sector.
The report, entitled “
Myanmar’s moment: Unique opportunities, major challenges”, contains some startling forecasts and detailed recommendations on how to “unlock growth” in an economy hobbled by decades of mismanagement under secretive military rule.
“Managed well, Myanmar could potentially quadruple the size of its economy from $45bn in 2010 to more than $300bn in 2030, creating 10m non-agricultural jobs and potentially lifting 18m out of poverty in the process,” MGI says. The country could lift economic growth to 8 per cent per annum – up from 6.3 per cent last year – if it acts decisively to expand all seven key sectors of its economy: agriculture, manufacturing, infrastructure, energy and mining, banking, telecoms and tourism.
Per capita GDP, meanwhile, could rise accordingly to $5,100 by 2030, from $1,300 in 2010, MGI notes. If labour productivity remains flat, however, and if current demographic trends continue, Myanmar’s GDP growth could fall to less than 4 per cent annually, the report warns.
The report is not a blueprint for government reform and was not motivated by business considerations, says Heang Chhor, a director in McKinsey’s Southeast Asian operations. “This could be one of the most fascinating transformation cases in decades and it needs an innovative approach – we did this because we wanted to provide a fact-based perspective on Myanmar’s economic potential, and to contribute to debate about the way forward.”
Simple as that.
It is doubtful however whether McKinsey’s timing is purely coincidental. The report’s publication in Myanmar coincides with the first World Economic Forum gathering to be held in the country, in the eccentric and once-isolated capital, Naypyidaw. Some WEF insiders say organisers are just a little concerned that the “power dinner” McKinsey is organising to launch the report could steal some of the hype surrounding the forum.
It clearly suits McKinsey – and Myanmar’s government – perfectly. With more than 900 people signed up to attend, including the odd minister and numerous dignitaries, and many more being turned away, the gathering is shaping up to be the biggest WEF to take place outside its original stomping ground, Davos in Switerland.
The forum is ambitious for Myanmar. The country has never hosted such a large and high-powered international gathering but sees it as a timely practice run as it gears up to stage the Southeast Asian Games later this year and take the rotating chairmanship of the 10-member Asean grouping next year.
For McKinsey, which tends to take a long term view of things, it puts a marker down for expertise on a country that has shot to international attention.
Among more detailed recommendations,
the report suggests ways to leverage the economy’s seven key sectors – agriculture; manufacturing; infrastructure; energy and mining; tourism; banking; and telecoms. The first four alone account for almost 85 per cent of “total economic opportunity”, notes MGI.
There is also a potentially lucrative market for companies in manufacturing, distribution and marketing of consumer goods, it adds. The “consumer class,” estimated at 2.5m people, could rise to 19m by 2030, and consumer spending could nearly triple to $100bn from $35bn in the period, it notes.
MGI, stating the obvious, perhaps, says throughout the report that “achieving this growth will not be easy”. To get there, it lays out four big ideas to “unlock growth”.
An essential preliminary step, however, is to get “all the fundamentals right”, including maintaining macroeconomic stability, expanding education and vocational training, investing heavily in infrastructure, improving the business environment and strengthening the financial system.
Four less obvious prescriptions for Step 2, in MGI’s view, are:
Digital leapfrogging: Myanmar should take advantage of the fact it is starting on its economic development journey in the digital age when mobile and internet technology is increasingly affordable, the report says. Areas such as education, healthcare and retail are ideally suited to the growth of internet coverage, the report notes. “Instead of recruiting say 50,000 teachers, you find the top 100 in the country and use internet and video technology,” says Richard Dobbs, a director at McKinsey and MGI.
Structural sector shift: some striking comparative analysis in the report shows that while other emerging economies shifted away from agriculture towards manufacturing, Myanmar has actually increased its reliance on agriculture. The report recommends the country develop its small manufacturing sector in stages, focusing on labour-intensive manufacturing while it develops a few core “high productivity, high growth” industries such as auto parts and assembly and communications equipment.
Urbanisation: Myanmar’s estimated 60m population is overwhelmingly rural, but the share of people who live in large cities, defined as more than 200,000 inhabitants, could double from just 13 per cent today to around 25 per cent of the population by 2030. Such a shift could “fundamentally transform” the economy and society, the report notes. To this end, the country should consider the London or Johannesburg model of putting elected mayors in charge with authority to work with professional agencies on urban plans and policies.
Globally connected economy: After decades of isolation, Myanmar should make a priority of attracting foreign capital. Potentially the country needs to attract more than $170bn in foreign direct investment to “close the gap between required investment and potential domestic savings”. To achieve this, the country needs to develop a targeted investment attraction strategy led by a dedicated agency, and to make a priority of improving its business environment, for example through regulation of financial services.
As for western investors who are streaming in to examine the opportunities, MGI has some sage advice:
First they need to move fast “if they are to be the first to establish lasting business relationships in Myanmar and build market share in their segments”.
Second, companies should be prepared to make long-term commitments to Myanmar and “play a part in developing the business environment and training the workforce”.
Third, their approach should be “sufficiently detailed, with a high level of agility and adaptability to seize the opportunity in what will be a fragmented market”. In a country of more than 135 ethic groups, the population is spread out with few population centres and limited infrastructure connections, it notes.
Finally, partnering with local companies “could provide a platform for more rapid growth and improved access to local talent,” MGI advises.
Ultimately, what the government does with the report is a “political decision and not what we do,” says McKinsey’s Mr Dobbs. “It’s really down to the political process for the government to make the decision.” As for McKinsey, “we can’t say what our presence will be in Myanmar in coming years.” Clearly, however, McKinsey has made some new best friends in Naypyidaw.
The question is whether it can stay on the inside track after national elections in 2015, when many locals hope to see opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi in power. “The Lady”, as she is known, has not aired her views on management consultants. It is clear however that her NLD party – until recently
a loose grouping of former political prisoners and activists with no experience of government and little expertise on economics and development issues – could also benefit from some outside advice on reshaping the machine.
So:-
- emphasis on diversified focus, not just sweat shops
- that we are at the threshold in the digital age so the strategy shouldn't be the same as what came before
- the industrialisation should be focused rather than sweatshops (this is not just wishy washy, our comparative advantage is not in cheap labour)
At no point did I say we should miss the industrialisation step. My point is we should not be sucked into a race to the bottom - if anything because we won't win.
I know a thing or two about development.
@ your comments about Thailand and Vietnam. Are you jealous because no one wants to come invest in your sh*t hole country? Do you think you can bridge the savings gap with your slave labour force turning out rags?
You would give your right testicle for your country to be a middle income economy. Thailand and Vietnam (along with Myanmar) have a debt/GDP ratio between 40 and 50% Do you think that's broke? I know debt is haram for you so you don't know about it but those are healthy numbers. Perhaps they should hire iadjani consultants next time. You are both an idiot and delusional but I will give you some credit for managing to write something coherent atleast.
Are YOU telling ME about infrastructure? Myanmar has rejected a number of FDI opportunities and a number of infrastructure projects from outside because it's important to look at the bigger picture. There are diverse opportunities in Myanmar but ownership is an issue. 
