I really do not think this is anything to do with Indian pressure.
BA has purchased 18 TRG-300 MLRS that can take out all Indian military bases surrounding BD within minutes in a first-strike. 1-2 squadrons of MRCA would pale in comparison to the harm these systems can do to India.
My take is that it is a combination of BAL incompetence and the government being stinging about the 3-4 billion US dollars that even a single squadron of Western MRCA would cost.
I think it does, along with BAL incompetence. I used to be of the camp it was simply BAF and BAL incompetence and corruption, but lately I think it is more sinister than that.
Typical excuses that BAF and BAL notes with regards to not procuring anything -
- No Russian planes because of fear of CAATSA - Although to be honest no one in US would have given a crap about Bangladesh procuring some Sukhois. But for the sake of argument, let's just say we didn't go for Sukhois because of CAATSA.
- No Gripens because Sweden did not want to sell to us.
- No F-16 or F-18s because of the risks of US sanctions on Bangladesh govt. officials. A risk that is a result of BAL government's own doing.
- No Eurofighter or Rafale because too expensive to afford after Covid.
The biggest question is why in first place we were
only looking for twin engine jets? Why couldn't we source for single engine alternatives? They were usually cheaper and inexpensive to operate compared to the twin engine planes BAF was considering.
The reason for twin engine requirement people usually provide is that we need it for maritime patrol. It is the same requirement BAF listed on their official tender. The reasoning is twin engine fighters have higher payload, so able to cover more range. Fair enough.
For comparison, let's look at another country - Pakistan. Pakistan's farthest maritime boundary from it's coast is
350 NM and a total maritime area of
290,000 Sq Km. Distance from the coast to the farthest point is 350 nm.
According to the UNCLOS-III, the total sea area of Bangladesh is approximately
207,000 square kilometers, which is smaller than the area Pakistan has to patrol. Distance from the coast to the farthest point is 354NM.
By BAFs logic, PAF and Navy should also be fielding twin engine jets? But we don't see a single twin engine fighter in their inventory. They maintain a combination of single engine platforms and long range UAVs like Wing Loong II. In fact if anything, they have an active hostile neighbor and one would assume they have more need for twin engine jets to conduct those strikes deep into enemy territory.
Bangladesh could have easily opted for Chinese alternatives such as J-10C as the backbone for BAF. It would cost half of what it would have cost of operating sub-par Sukhois and Migs. For maritime patrolling, we could have procured some long range UAVs like Wing Loong II.
The bottom line is, we could have strengthened the air force at half the cost, if only we got it from China. We are not a rich country to have the luxury of maintaining Rafales or EFTs. What was important was to mitigate the glaring gap in our air defence. Instead, we saw the Govt. twiddling their thumbs and parroting their "GDP this, GDP that" narrative.
There is incompetency, there is the factor of corruption in the form of commission from those purchases and finally there is the factor of not angering India by buying J-10C from China. Otherwise, we would have seen J-10C and Wing Loong II being inducted into BAF.
As for TRG-300, yes it was a good purchase. But, without air cover, India and Myanmar can take those out of operation real quick. They both operate combat drones and we can see from recent wars how effective drones can be against land systems.
