China's and Russia's Peace Missions and Joint Sea Drills
On land, China and Russia have been holding frequent Peace Missions. These involve thousands of troops, aircraft, and heavy artillery (such as main battle tanks and self-propelled howitzers).
At sea, China and Russia are holding constant Joint Sea drills (including an exercise in the Mediterranean Sea).
When you look at the joint military operations between China and Russia in the Peace Missions and Joint Sea exercises, it looks like military coordination between two countries. It lays the ground-work for a military alliance. Hence, my prediction of a Sino-Russian SCO military alliance (with Iran) in the next ten years.
The Peace Missions and Joint Sea exercises will keep growing in scope and participation (after Iran's membership is evaluated after the lifting of UN sanctions in January 2016).
Russia has declared the United States as an enemy. Will China formally join Russia in a military alliance? That is the big question.
Another important question: Are China and Russia already in an undeclared military alliance?
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Putin names United States among threats in new Russian security strategy| Reuters
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References (Peace Mission 2013 and Peace Mission 2014):
"Peace Mission-2013": China-Russia relations in new context | Russia Beyond The Headlines ASIA
Analyzing Peace Mission 2014: China and Russia Exercise with the Central Asian States | SLDInfo
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Reference (Joint Sea II 2015):
China, Russia Land 400 Marines in First Joint Pacific Amphibious Exercise - USNI News
Conjectures and structures, my friend, which is most skeptical commentators on this thread fail to realize/discern. Your posts make an excellent contribution to the underlying theory, that is, the ever growing China-Russia strategic partnership.
As you empirically verify, this is the reality on the ground, hence denial won't do much justice to the facts.
When we asses China-Russia relations, we need to employ an entirely different conceptual framework from the traditional (US-led) alliance model. This is where most of the comments lose contact with reality and fall into the trap of ethnocentric theorizing.
Certain points, perhaps, need to be underlined again:
1. The way China and Russia design and define their relations is different from the existing alliance norms. China and Russia are equals (this is without rejecting natural/historical differences in various aspects of national power) in their interaction and every institutional setting these two are in, they interact within the boundaries of the rules and norms set up through consultation and incremental learning.
China and Russia's relationship is more organic than the one between the US and its various allies. That's why the US is what it is today, a reactionary, anti-historical great power. China-Russia is here not to repeat or reform it, but to promote an alternative framework of inter-state relations for the rest of the world to see.
Do people think we never come together with our Russian partners (Track I and Track II (Track II is the level I interact with colleagues from Russia)) and discuss and theorize about the nature of our relations? Do people think it is just by accident that our bilateral relations have improved so comprehensively over the past decade?
Just as what others think about what is the nature of our relationship, so do we. And we have the advantage of actually owning the whole process and therefore upgrading it no matter what outsiders think or feel.
2. Anybody can look at all the public statements, documents, and policy papers that are related to China-Russia relations. These documents reveal that there is no single instance where the two disagrees (at the ideational level) on their conceptualization of the world governance. This is the core of our relations. This is what I call the structure. Structurally, we are aligned. We are perfectly aligned.
3. But, conjectures might push either of us to various policy measures that might not fall perfectly in line with those of the other side -- Such as Russian arms sales to Vietnam or India. But this is just a conjectural issue, and we understand the need to do business with everybody. Because (point 1, above) we are two equal sovereign nations.
In China-Russia relations, the conjectures are micro-managed while structures are macro-managed.
We will observe an ever deepening relationship. The institutional and physical lines of cooperation and communication are still being laid out/set up.
***
About the Syrian War, it will become an increasingly European (Western) affair as Russia pulls the strings on the ground.
Europe already has a huge extremism problem with thousands of born-in-Europe and immigrant extremists having all the fun and privilage of establishing underground indoctrination and recruitment centers all across the Europe. Their problems will only grow as ISIS and the likes are being pounded by Russia. Europe still offers a last-retreat option for most radicals.
The US and its Pacific allies are very much saved simply because of distance. So, Europe will have enough time to think over what it has done wrong. This won't be an easy Iraq War 2. 0.
According my resources, there are about 10.000 Uighurs actively engaged in fight in Syria. They are mostly under JN, often fighting the ISIS as well as Syrian Army and the NDF. Not all of them are coming directly from Xinjiang; a considerable number of them are already refugees/citizens nestled in Turkey for years. We know them, and we monitor them. Turkey is a conduit for Chechen extremists because of its very easy/encouriging border and immigration procedures. This enables easy entrance, lodging, equipping and transfer into Syria. There is very little in terms of content and context between Uighur and Chechen terrorists.
Inside China, things are much better compared to Europe (and probably to the US, to a less degree) where things are getting worse. Bribing Turkey with 3million USD won't cut anything. Turkey is still sending over migrants on the boats into Greece's Aegean islands like there is no tomorrow.
If certain Europe and US regimes further oppress these extremist inside their borders, they will turn even more radical. Then we might as well see other Paris or Boston attacks, although no one would like to see that happen.
On all this troubles, Europe has first itself and then the US to blame. Itself, because it followed blindly the US line in Syria. US, because, the US encouraged various regimes near Syrian borders to train, equip and finance anti-Syria militia. There has always been extremist recruitment in the US and Europe, but Syrian situation just made it worse. US political and social culture has never been strong enough to entirely change the hearts and minds of these potential extremists.
Be warned, these extreme capitalist states (such as the US) might easily turn real fascist (exreme right) once they feel their vital (class) interests are challenged/put in danger. This is the story of
popular fascisms across Europe in the early-mid 1900s. This time it will be different for the US than the 1950s' Communist hunt because demographic in the US has changed a lot. A WASP supermajority to stand in support of a fascist regime to protect the so-called “middle class values" is no more.
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