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Muridke The Real IAF Target?

batmannow-
Two ways to counter airstrikes from India

- Stop Dreaming (I dont think india will do this as it could escalate out of control as Pak cant defend itself directly on the air strikes)
- Hand over DI to India or arrest him in Pak, most problems will get resolved.
 
You should remember who is in Afghanistan. A strike in Afghanistan will invite Indian army into Afghanistan which will make the leverage of Pakistan on Afghanistan even less.

Because Pakistan (which means Army AND tribes) can't handle the Indian Army in their own backyard? Because the Afghans will be so happy with another brutally massive Hindu Army down their throats that there will be no resentment and friction? Indian troops do really manage to get along well with locals in the places from which they operate, don’t they? Because the World won't realize that inviting Indian military forces into Afghanistan would almost infinitively complicate the situation further beyond all measure of legal and physical control (Afghanistan a country heavily reliant on Pakistan, full of Drug/War Lords and Taliban and Al-Qaeda and wild tribes...inducing Pakistani/Indian bitter rivalry into the mix would be so much appreciated by the international community trying to fight a 'moral' war in Afghanistan, wont it?)
 
Because Pakistan (which means Army AND tribes) can't handle the Indian Army in their own backyard? Because the Afghans will be so happy with another brutally massive Hindu Army down their throats that there will be no resentment and friction? Indian troops do really manage to get along well with locals in the places from which they operate, don’t they? Because the World won't realize that inviting Indian military forces into Afghanistan would almost infinitively complicate the situation further beyond all measure of legal and physical control (Afghanistan a country heavily reliant on Pakistan, full of Drug/War Lords and Taliban and Al-Qaeda and wild tribes...inducing Pakistani/Indian bitter rivalry into the mix would be so much appreciated by the international community trying to fight a 'moral' war in Afghanistan, wont it?)

Attacking Indian targets by missiles will invite Indian army in Afghanistan and that will make things complicated which I'm sure Pakistan will not relish. They are already very troubled by presence of Indian consulates.
 
batmannow-
Two ways to counter airstrikes from India

- Stop Dreaming (I dont think india will do this as it could escalate out of control as Pak cant defend itself directly on the air strikes)
- Hand over DI to India or arrest him in Pak, most problems will get resolved.
Pakistan Air Force can very well defend Pakistan from Air Strikes..Just because we are'nt stopping US Drones does not mean we will let Indian Air Force strike inside Pakistan.We have the capability to shoot down drones but its tactical understanding with US plus we can't really do much against US but India is a different story.
 
I had responded to a post that apprehends action from Indian airstrikes SU-30 etc and therefore suggested to me that Pak is worried about it....and therefore feel they cannot handle it...anyways

When everything Pakistani is so superior to whatever India has..then please invade India relieve us of our plight. Infact, please attack US now and remove that bush fellow from destroying the world.
 
Biggest weakness is western border. Forget about overt war with India...The war you guys are planning is already happening, the ball started rolling as soon as national security became compromised due to WoT, then Indian-US sponsored domestic insurgency, and now predator strikes (which is only laying the groundwork for bigger violations).

The entire Pakistan military should be mobilized to deal with the unstable situation in the north with these RAW sponsored taliban otherwise let's not speak about winning conventional wars or how best to deal with SU30 when we are having a hard time dealing with RPG7 and AK47... Each day that passes by without full control of our country and border only emboldens India. You can't beat and fight someone coming from the outside when someone is already inside you and beating you 50% of the time...
 

Analysis: Moeed Yusuf

India cannot conduct an air strike without at the very least planning seriously for a potential Pakistani response, and in turn, further escalation. This is because for Pakistan, the ultimate way to put pressure on India is to threaten, indeed execute, a response that initiates movement along the escalation ladder

Senator John McCain, on a daylong visit to Pakistan along with two other US senators, brought a stern message from New Delhi. Mr McCain was quoted as saying that if Pakistan did not fulfil Indian demands, India was certain to launch air strikes.

The Indian media too has presented the possibility of an Indian air strike as an easy-to-execute, surgical option short of an all-out war. Some have even begun to invoke the US drone strikes in the northwest against select targets as a precedent for India to do the same.

This is a serious error of conflation.

Consider that in the northwest, the drone strikes serve what the Pakistan Army believes is its own cause — i.e., to target the lynchpins of militant networks. All strikes during former General-President Pervez Musharraf’s time were pre-cleared with Pakistan and while the Americans have upped the ante and ignored Islamabad’s sensitivities in conducting strikes in recent months, a tacit understanding on the permissibility of their actions remains intact.

An Indian strike would be a different story altogether.

The Army will be facing its traditional rival, inaction against whom would cause reputational concerns and alter once and for all the perceptual balance of power that has favoured Pakistan since the 1998 nuclear tests.

Moreover, with most key states having signalled clearly that they are amenable to India’s stance (although they would try to dissuade India from exercising the military option), Pakistan could, given the situation, hardly hope to score any diplomatic points by refraining from a similar response.

Finally, for Pakistan, the ultimate way to put pressure on India is to threaten, indeed execute, a response that initiates movement along the escalation ladder. As soon as that happens, the nuclear weapon equation will come to life and so will the superpower diplomacy designed to keep a lid on tensions.

Let us postulate how the scenario may play out.

India will choose a limited number of locations to strike within Azad Kashmir or Pakistan-proper, most probably in the northwest. The idea would not be to wipe out the militant leadership, which by now would have relocated from predictable targets; nor even to eliminate the alleged terrorist infrastructure. Rather, the strikes would be meant to ‘teach Pakistan a lesson’, reverse the claim of victory by the Pakistani military in the 2001-02 crisis, and challenge the impunity with which India claims Pakistan and elements within have used asymmetric warfare to prick India over the past 15 years.

In essence then, Pakistani inaction would amount to the success of India’s mission.

To thwart such a possibility, Pakistan is likely to engage Indian strikes — coming either from aircrafts or short range Prithvi missiles — using its air defence assets. Meanwhile, the air force would have to be ready for any eventuality in the skies. Moreover, to up the ante, Pakistan is certain to put its own missile batteries on high alert and even show exaggerated movement, perhaps through a mixture of real assets and decoys.

Apart from complete inaction, the above depiction would be Pakistan’s minimal response. Even then, it inevitably carries with it an escalation ladder whose top rung entails a nuclear calculus. This is so since both sides are bound to carry mutually exclusive perceptions of victory. Just as success for India entails conducting a strike without being met by a Pakistani response, any successful engagement or retaliation by Pakistan will be taken equally harshly by India.

In short, there is no room for a face-saver in a one-shot exchange. By implication, escalation would be a given as long as India initiates and Pakistan avoids complete inaction.

The nuclear calculus invariably comes into play since neither side can differentiate between each other’s strike assets in terms of conventional and nuclear delivery. While it is unimaginable that India’s initial strikes will be nuclear-tipped, New Delhi will necessarily have to include the nuclear dimension in calculating Pakistan’s response.

This is not to say that the latter will be rash enough to deploy nuclear missiles. However, if the escalation dynamic is unleashed and Pakistan does decide to respond beyond an attempt at air defence (this would happen if the air defence fails or if India ups the ante after a successful Pakistani engagement), employment of any kind of air or land-to-air assets in an escapade, no matter how limited, will bring to the fore the entire set of concerns frequently raised by proliferation pessimists — read high potential for inadvertent use of nuclear weapons.

What is being argued is not that the two sides will reach the nuclear rung. Rather, simply that both sides cannot be complacent about the threat of escalation; the calculations would be no different than in a scenario where an all-out conventional war is being contemplated. In fact, should a tit-for-tat response continue past the first exchange, both sides are likely to put their ground forces on high alert. That would then repeat the 2001-02 dynamic. The international community, led by the US would be forced to jump in to pull both sides back from the brink.

At this stage, the US would not only be concerned about the nuclear equation, but more urgently, the prospect of Pakistan pulling out its troops from the Western border. In all likelihood then, Washington would act as a relatively more neutral broker than it seems at present; it will continue to put diplomatic pressure on Pakistan but will also force India to ease tensions.

A number of lessons can be deciphered from this scenario. First, India cannot conduct an air strike without at the very least planning seriously for a potential Pakistani response, and in turn, further escalation.

Second, barring Pakistani inaction, escalation will be highly likely. Whether it spirals rapidly or stops at the level of first exchange, the situation will be inherently dangerous given the employment of dual-use air and land-to-air assets; proliferation pessimism will apply from the very onset.

Third, the situation sets up a self-defeating perverse incentive for Pakistan to escalate in response to India, both to avoid humiliation and to bring the international community to force India to call it a draw.

Fourth, it flows from the above that Pakistan should already be signalling clearly its intent to respond with force to any Indian move. At the minimum it should be conveyed unequivocally to Washington and New Delhi directly.

Fifth, no matter what the ultimate outcome, the South Asian powers would have played into the hands of the perpetrators of the Mumbai attack who wanted precisely this, i.e. force India to escalate, Pakistan to respond and mobilise on the eastern border and in effect ease pressure off from the Northwest. Pakistan pulling the troops will give them the much-sought opportunity to put their jihad against the US in top gear.

Sixth, even if Pakistan does not respond to India, Islamabad’s quitting will make the government extremely unpopular, a sentiment that would translate into street anger and thus destabilisation — just what the terrorist groups want to find recruits. It would still result in greater anti-India feeling which would feed into the objectives of the terrorist groups. This is hardly a situation the Indian planners should be aiming at — or, one dares say would like to materialise.

Finally, it must be noted that New Delhi faced virtually the same constraints when it was contemplating punitive strikes in Azad Kashmir in 2001-02. Better sense prevailed on that occasion. A sensible mind would realise the fallacy of acting rashly this time also.

That having been said, the media drumbeat and political pressure on the Congress party in India is quite acute. Inaction on New Delhi’s part would make this the second time in less than a decade that it has pulled back after huffing and puffing. Indeed, the militant enclave is eagerly watching, hoping that India takes the bait. If it does, India, Pakistan, and the US, all will have lost out to the vested interests behind the Mumbai attacks.
 
Neo - Exactly my point..Indians know that they cannot conduct any air strikes. But ruling them out gives them no space to put any pressure on GoP. So they have to 'keep' them publicly on the table even though they really arent.(Unless US conducts them..on Indias behalf)

For Pak, as officially India hasnt ruled it out they must factor it in even when they know India in most likelihood cannot act.

This means minimal action against LET etc and standard Indian protests and a stalemate.
 
I had responded to a post that apprehends action from Indian airstrikes SU-30 etc and therefore suggested to me that Pak is worried about it....and therefore feel they cannot handle it...anyways

When everything Pakistani is so superior to whatever India has..then please invade India relieve us of our plight. Infact, please attack US now and remove that bush fellow from destroying the world.
We never claimed we're future super power.Our Air Chief and ex-pilots (who are members of Defence Pakistan X-man and Muradk) have already mentioned that we can defend Pakistan from intruders but it's up to Politicians to give order.Do you honestly believe we can't attack Su-30?Honestly you Indians are completely brainwashed..Maybe you're familiar to Air Defence Systems and Air Crafts....We're talking about Pakistan here not Iraq or Afghanistan.
 
Im not brainwashed at all. Infact, as I pointed out, I only took your fellow Pakistani's post at its face value that he was worried that Pak didnt have a good enuf defense system to neutralise SU 30 attacks..and responded by saying do not worry about an airstrike from India as it wont happen.

Im sure you can attack any aircraft in the world leave alone SU-30, if anyone treated you as Iraq and Afghanistan then you would have had US troops on your soil and your countries Main leader will either have been on the run or killed...but since that is not true it means no one treats Pakistan as a weak state like Iraq or Afghanistan.

Pakistan is not only key to US - war on terror but also India as we cannot choose our neighbours but have to live with them.
 
Im not brainwashed at all. Infact, as I pointed out, I only took your fellow Pakistani's post at its face value that he was worried that Pak didnt have a good enuf defense system to neutralise SU 30 attacks..and responded by saying do not worry about an airstrike from India as it wont happen.

Im sure you can attack any aircraft in the world leave alone SU-30, if anyone treated you as Iraq and Afghanistan then you would have had US troops on your soil and your countries Main leader will either have been on the run or killed...but since that is not true it means no one treats Pakistan as a weak state like Iraq or Afghanistan.

Pakistan is not only key to US - war on terror but also India as we cannot choose our neighbours but have to live with them.
Our Military role is defensive not offensive..No, we can't attack all air crafts but we sure can handle Su30 and i am sure India wont get Raptor :bounce:.
 
Ok.

What if US attacks? Given that they have the capability and are busy building up a case for the same....
 
Ok.

What if US attacks? Given that they have the capability and are busy building up a case for the same....
I don't think US will attack Pakistan.We're already doing what they want so they dont have to attack us..........
 
I had responded to a post that apprehends action from Indian airstrikes SU-30 etc and therefore suggested to me that Pak is worried about it....and therefore feel they cannot handle it...anyways

PAF pilots i.e. the people in business have lots of respect for SU-30 and they never undermine its capabilities. They realize its threat value and are very well aware of its awesome potential. Right now in subcontinent, no doubt that there is no other fighter that is more capable than SU-30…

But remember that no manmade war machine is ever absolute invincible, everything has its weaknesses and limitations and those are the ones that opponents exploit…In 1999, a USAF F-117 that was supposed to be a stealth fighter was shot down over Yugoslavia by an obsolete surface-air missile…It took not only the USAF but whole world by surprise and hence proves the point once again that whatever goes up can be brought down too…

Since IAF acquired SU-30, PAF has been continually evolving tactics to beat it while exploiting its areas that will saturate SU-30s capabilities….What are the tactics? Definitely they can’t be discussed here….Is PAF successful in her approach and plan of action? Well, can’t tell now…it can only be answered if they ever come face to face in a real situation….
 
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I do not foresee any military strike by India. Moreover there is hardly any coverage on this issue by the mainstream media or even the vernacular press,which can get very vocal.

Also with the recent action by the authorities at Muridke, the GOI has got some breathing space.

The state of the Global and in particular the Indian economy is a bigger challenge to GOI. They will continue to build up the international pressure on Pakistan, this looks like to be the consensus in the Govt. circles.
 

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