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Mumbai II could lead to a full blown Indo-Pak war

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Washington : As US observes the ninth anniversary of the September 11 terror attacks, a reputed Washington-based research group today warned that a repeat of 26/11 may lead to a full blown Indo-Pak war.
Preventing Mumbai-II from occurring remains a major foreign policy challenge for the US, the report said.

"One of the more predictable foreign policy challenges of the next years is a 'Mumbai II': a large-scale attack on a major Indian city by a Pakistani militant group that kills hundreds," said the 42-page report from the Bipartisan Policy Centre's National Security Preparedness Group, a Washington based research group.

Authored by Peter Bergen and Bruce Hoffman, the report "Assessing the Terrorist Threat" appreciated the considerable restraint shown by India in its reaction to the provocation of the Mumbai attacks in 2008.

"Another such attack, however, would likely produce considerable political pressure on the Indian government to 'do something'. That something would likely involve incursions over the border to eliminate the training camps of Pakistani militant groups with histories of attacking India," the report said.

That could lead in turn to a full-blown war for the fourth time since 1947 between India and Pakistan," it said.

"Such a war involves the possibility of a nuclear exchange and the certainty that Pakistan would move substantial resources to its eastern border and away from fighting the Taliban on its western border, so relieving pressure on all the militant groups based there, including al-Qaeda," said the report.

Over a three-day period in late November 2008, Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) carried out multiple attacks in Mumbai targeting five-star hotels housing Westerners, as well as a Jewish-American community centre, it noted.

Additional incidents involved the Pakistan-born US citizen David Headley (who had changed his name from Daood Sayed Gilani).

Headley's reconnaissance efforts on behalf of LeT were pivotal to the attacks in Mumbai, the report said.

"Last year he also planned an operation to kill those responsible for the 2005 publication in a Danish newspaper of cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed, which many Muslims had deemed to be offensive," the report said.

A police spokesman said activists of hardline faction of Hurriyat Conference led by Syed Ali Shah Geelani and Muslim League disrupted Eid prayers at Hazaratbal and set afire the Auqaf building housing the policemen and a police vehicle.

"Timely and prompt action of the fire service and police stopped the fire from spreading. The mob was dispersed. However, the situation is tense," the spokesman said.

The spokesman accused the Mirwaiz of aggravating the situation by "leading a procession to Lal Chowk, taking the advantage of the Eid congregation. He has vitiated the Eid celebration in Srinagar".

The spokesman said the administration and police are exercising maximum restraint and have appealed to the people to cooperate with the administration.

'Mumbai II could lead to a full blown Indo-Pak war'
 
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i am hearing all this kinds of steps after the 2001 parliament attack's,nothing is going to happen untill we dare to go for MAD
 
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Another such attack, however, would likely produce considerable political pressure on the Indian government to 'do something'. That something would likely involve incursions over the border to eliminate the training camps of Pakistani militant groups with histories of attacking India," the report said.

I disagree with the report.

That something could very well be of three types, the choice would be of GoI's to make:

Civilian Retaliation:

1. Suspension of diplomatic ties/closure of embassies
2. Renewed diplomatic attack. This could involve an effort from India to completely ostracize Pak on the world stage.
3. Revoking MFN status/complete suspension of trade ties
etc.
4. Threatening with war. Nobody wants war but threatening of war may force the bigger powers to take notice of India's concerns.

Proxy Retaliation:

This may sound unethical but a desperate GoI may call its agencies to payback in the same coin.

Military Retaliation:

A limited scale conflict. We could see 'cold-start' into play here. It will involve some risk of escalation of course but GoI would have to take calculated risk.

Depending on the scale and magnitude of the terrorist attack, we could see calls from the opposition/hawks in India for GoI to take some action about the Indus Waters Treaty.

Another mumbai like attack and GoI would be under serious public pressure to take some concrete action. Things could get ugly but all-out war is unlikely given how much India risks to lose.:coffee:
 
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i wont count on war it would be then totally devastating for afghanistan and america would be out in the cold then it is not in the interests of the nato so i belive that nato would pressurize the indians not to go to the war besids it would be a nuclear war if it would be a war
 
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Proxy Retaliation:

This may sound unethical but a desperate GoI may call its agencies to payback in the same coin.

This is the best option - should have been done a long time ago.
 
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The indians wet dream of a war with Pakistan but any confrontation will be severly limited scale. What ever they can dream to play will be seriously countered by Saudis, UAE, Turkish and Chinese efforts. And dont forget world wide ravage which would launch against indian nationals particularly in Middle east.

For India to take any action it has to present a creditable proof of Pakistani state involement which in series of Mumbai drama is still lacking. Just because they can make some chutia making dramas on Zee and NDTV does not mean the whole world can be fooled form Indian stage.

The Chinese will not refrain from providing a material support and arabs will not back away from moral and financial support. In the end we are looking for a Vietnam style bloody useless war and acute Indian economical destruction.

This is the best option - should have been done a long time ago.

Wasnt mumbai carnege a payback for Indian involment in Baluchistan and NWFP?:?
If you are justifying proxy wars then that fact should be acknowledged as well.
 
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i wont count on war it would be then totally devastating for afghanistan and america would be out in the cold then it is not in the interests of the nato so i belive that nato would pressurize the indians not to go to the war besids it would be a nuclear war if it would be a war

Firstly, I think we have better options than war. A little sabre rattling on Indus Waters Treaty won't harm India. We have better options than open full-fledged war.

Second, even if ,god forbid, there is a war, it will only be limited war and not full scale/nuclear.

Let me elaborate.

India is already working on'cold-start'. We are slowly but surely taking action to put things in place for that.

In case there is an attack and India decides to retaliate militarily, IA could launch a few shock attacks by brahmos missiles/commando units etc., quickly inflict casualties and declare ceasefire. This will never give Pakistan the excuse to go full-fledged/nuclear. Like I said, it's a calculated risk.

My friend, don't think that just because nations have nukes will wars be abolished.

It's human nature to fight wars. We have fought wars since the beginning of human civilization. Nuclear deterrent can work only up to acertain point beyond which, nations will be forced to take action to protect their interests. Don't count on nukes!
 
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Wasnt mumbai carnege a payback for Indian involment in Baluchistan and NWFP?:?
If you are justifying proxy wars then that fact should be acknowledged as well.

When 26/11 happened, all blame was put on the Kashmir issue and now you put the blame on Balochistan and NWFP !!!

I am not justifying proxy wars but if someone understands only one type of language then what can we do.
 
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I disagree with the report.

That something could very well be of three types, the choice would be of GoI's to make:

Civilian Retaliation:

1. Suspension of diplomatic ties/closure of embassies
Wouldnt effect Pakistan much.
2. Renewed diplomatic attack. This could involve an effort from India to completely ostracize Pak on the world stage.

U have been doing tht since long and have FAILED!
Also USA needs us more then ever... wonder 36 New blk52(other goodies),6 OHP,10 P-C3 Hawkeye 2000,Return of all embargoes F-16s number 28!,MLU Star Kits(with a number of additional kits),Laser guided amunition and other stuff,115 M109A5 SP Howitzers etc... all bought frm USA.
Helicopters, etc

3. Revoking MFN status/complete suspension of trade ties
etc.

Wont affect us either!Pakistan has given india MFN status either.Nor we have a BULK of trade with india.
4. Threatening with war. Nobody wants war but threatening of war may force the bigger powers to take notice of India's concerns.

Nobdy including india wants war.

Proxy Retaliation:

This may sound unethical but a desperate GoI may call its agencies to payback in the same coin.

Arent u doing tht already and failing?This aint 71!
Also this kind of relatiation will also have a reaction !

We arent nepal,maldives or tibet.




Military Retaliation:

A limited scale conflict. We could see 'cold-start' into play here. It will involve some risk of escalation of course but GoI would have to take calculated risk.

Its a flawed concept even according to indian generals.... 2003 showdown was a good reminder of ur flawed concept... on the other hand we have the Offensive Defence stategy tht has been perfected since Pakistans biggest excersise Zarb-e-Momin... Hig mark,Saffron bandit etc (involving all 3 armed forces).


Depending on the scale and magnitude of the terrorist attack, we could see calls from the opposition/hawks in India for GoI to take some action about the Indus Waters Treaty
.

Tht would be a diplomatic blunder and itself may lead to a full scale war.


Another mumbai like attack and GoI would be under serious public pressure to take some concrete action. Things could get ugly but all-out war is unlikely given how much India risks to lose.:coffee:

Surgical strikes?:coffee:
 
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Originally Posted by Imran Khan View Post
say no to war .god bless peace in both countres. think pray hope and work for peace .and hate war.

^^^
One very sane reaction to highly speculative news.
Imran bhai, thanks for 'thinking' instead of 'speculating'.
 
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Would effect Pakistan much.


U have been doing tht since long and have FAILED!


Ya we failed. But you know why? Because we were not in a position to make our voice heard at that time.

Since then, we have grown much more powerful and do enjoy some cloud internationally.

Also USA needs us more then ever... wonder 36 New blk52(other goodies),6 OHP,10 P-C3 Hawkeye 2000,Return of all embargoes F-16s number 28!,MLU Star Kits(with a number of additional kits),Laser guided amunition and other stuff,115 M109A5 SP Howitzers etc... all bought frm USA.
Helicopters, etc

If GoI decides to take limited calculated action, even USA won't be able to do much that too considering the worldwide public sympathy such a terrorist attack for generate for India and worldwide condemnation/anger for Pakistan. USA does have a clout in Indian foreign policy, but not much, had it been so, India would have allowed Obama to work towards Kashmir res. On the contrary, nobodi in India cares about Holbrooke. Do remember, holbrooke was initially appointed in charge of the whole south asia region but when GoI sidelined him completely, he was left with no choice other than to focus on Afghanistan-Pakistan


Wont affect us either!Pakistan has given india MFN status either.Nor we have a BULK of trade with india.

Ya it might not have much effect but it will help release some internal pressure on GoI from the pressure cooker situation it will be in. It will be meant largely for the internal audience of India.

Nobdy including india wants war.

Very true but sometimes people are left with no choices. I'm afraid what will GoI do once it finds itself running out of subtler options.

Military Retaliation:


Its a flawed concept even according to indian generals.... 2003 showdown was a good reminder of ur flawed concept... on the other hand we have the Offensive Defence stategy tht has been perfected since Pakistans biggest excersise Zarb-e-Momin... Hig mark,Saffron bandit etc (involving all 3 armed forces).

Who knows what goes on behind the scenes. That was 2003. This is 2010. Maybe we have made amend to out strategy and fine-tuned it.


Surgical strikes?:coffee:

Could be but most likely by cruise missiles and commando teams and that too of a very very short duration so that Pakistan doesn't get an excuse to go all-out.
 
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