Even as India was facing the unfolding saga of Hindu terrorism whose tentacles seem to go into its armed forces, the country has been struck by another terrorist attack in Mumbai. The Wednesday mayhem will change the political paradigm in India and therefore also in South Asia. Heavily armed terrorists calling themselves the Deccan Mujahideen, a group unknown thus far, stormed luxury hotels, a popular tourist attraction and a crowded train station in at least seven attacks in Indias financial capital, killing over 100 people by latest count including the Mumbai Anti-Terror Squad chief. Analysts have cautioned against jumping to any conclusion but say the group might have some linkage with Al Qaeda or its ideology even though until now investigators have not found an Al Qaeda spoor in the many terrorist attacks in India since 2003.
It is significant that the terrorists have targeted British and American visitors too and were holding foreigners hostage, including some European parliamentarians. Reports indicate 9 foreigners are among those killed. The grievance on the basis of which the Indian Muslim terrorists usually own up their acts has thus expanded to include a global agenda. The Deccan Mujahideen whoever they are while talking about atrocities in Kashmir have also thrown in references to places other than India where the Muslims are said to be suffering at the hands of America and Britain. The hidden reference is to Palestine, Iraq and Afghanistan.
In the past, the reference was clearly inferred. Everything went back to the Muslim carnage in Gujarat in 2002 in which 1,100 men, women and children were killed and over 150,000 ousted from homes. At the local level, every time an act of terrorism was committed in India, Pakistan was somehow named. Ongoing investigations into some terrorist attacks that were alternately blamed on Indian Muslims and Pakistan have shown that they were actually carried out by a Hindu terrorist network. But facts aside, this is how the collective psyche of fear works. One credible event is remembered and then myths are attached to it. The same sort of thing happens on the Pakistani side. Taken together, this trend forms the brick-wall against which all efforts at normalising Indo-Pak relations come to a halt.
Luckily, when the Mumbai mayhem occurred, the two countries were engaged in a dialogue at two levels. The foreign ministers were meeting in New Delhi and the interior secretaries were meeting in Islamabad, trying to resolve disputes and raising the level of cooperation against terrorism. Pakistan was among the first countries that sent messages of solidarity to New Delhi after the Mumbai outrage by the Deccan Mujahideen. The message from Islamabad is entirely credible but will it be convincing too? There is no doubt that Pakistan is under attack from the same kind of mujahideen. The latest message emanating from South Waziristan is that the Taliban will now be targeting President Zardari and his political allies. The reason for this threat is America whose supplies through Pakistan will be disrupted, according to a deputy of Baitullah Mehsud.
The need is to work out cooperative strategies because all states are under threat from the scourge of terrorism. Unfortunately this is made nearly impossible by domestic political oppositions and their desire for point scoring. In India, the Mumbai attacks will give the rightwing parties the stick to beat the government with. The BJP was already getting jittery over investigations that were spreading into the underground labyrinth of the Parivars terrorism. It will now get the opportunity to accuse the UPA government of being soft on terrorism (read: Muslims). Somewhere along the line it may also throw in the reference to Pakistan. The speech by Indian prime minister Manmohan Singh and his assertion that New Delhi will take up strongly the use of neighbours territory to launch attacks on India could be a reference to Pakistan or Bangladesh or both. At the minimum it seems to be an attempt by Dr Singh to pre-empt criticism from the Hindu rightwing.
At home, reactions are rendering the credibility of the PPP government doubtful. In fact, Prime Minister Gilani is under attack from the opposition in parliament which says that President Zardari has more powers than the prime minister and that the system under the PPP government is an extension of the Musharraf presidential regime. However, what is eschewed are constitutional and conceptual nuances. Pakistan has seen two extremes, all-powerful prime ministers that render presidents useless and all-powerful presidents that make prime ministers look like puppets. The debate should have focused on how to work out the correct balance but, predictably, has been informed by petty politicking rather than any intellectual effort. The animus is fired further by allegations and counter-allegations about promises made and broken.
These internal imbalances are not good for Pakistan and India. Pakistan is in dire economic straits and needs assistance from its friends abroad; Indian markets are already down 56 percent on back of the global downturn. Both countries need to cooperate in the new environment of terrorism; neither is ideally placed to do so.
